# 2019 Middle Fork Hazards and Access Thread



## MountainmanPete

Should people be bringing saws on the river in case of snags/deadfall??


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## Andy H.

Moderator's Note:

Rivers tacked the above post onto an old thread from last year that wasn't really on topic. Rather than that, this will now be the MFS thread where folks can post Boundary road opening info, wood reports, and other relevant MFS related info.

Please post 2019 MFS info here so its all in one place. 

Thanks!

-AH


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## MT4Runner

Seems that trees take 2-5 years to come down unless they burned right at the water line.

Might be 2021-2022 for heavy trees in the river.


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## Elevatedexpeditions

My group of 10 has a permit may 30th launch!! Any updates on road access and wood would be appreciated!!!


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## 50119

Avalanche slides will have moved some debris in if high runoff doesn't materialize.


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## carvedog

Elevatedexpeditions said:


> My group of 10 has a permit may 30th launch!! Any updates on road access and wood would be appreciated!!!


The road is still solidly snowed shut with about five feet of snow. And there is a ton of wood on, in or near to the river. 



chiefstilh20 said:


> Avalanche slides will have moved some debris in if high runoff doesn't materialize.


What does this mean? The avalanches have already moved the debris (woody and otherwise) into position. 

Are you expecting high run off not to materialize? I certainly think a higher flow will happen. What would cause high runoff not to happen? Is there a global chilling event that no one has been apprised of?

Curious minds want to know......


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## athelake

I found some videos of an avalanche on the East Fork of the South Fork of the Salmon. They are on Facebook.


https://www.facebook.com/chris.eaton.104/videos/2726153310744602/


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## missiongravity

OK river psychics....What are ya'll guessing as far as a road opening date for Boundary creek? 

Guesses on levels on May 29th?

I am in AK now and jonesing to get on the MFS and but don't have a feel for whats happening in that neck of the woods.

Thoughts? Feelings? Reactions?


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## codycleve

Right now its snowing around stanley and the snow pack is still building.. the snow wont really start to come off up there until it stops freezing hard at night.. right now that is not the case... who knows what the comming weeks will bring. Its going to have to warm up a bit.. might be huge if you can get in.

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## codycleve

Current image from the smiley creek airstrip. 

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## missiongravity

Wow, Cody that is crazy. It is gonna be a big water year this season!! Well, maybe it'll have to be a Main Salmon trip.


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## landslide

As of today (4/17), the snowpack is up to 138% of normal SWE at Banner Summit and the 8-14 day outlook is calling for below average temps and above average precip for the remainder of April. We haven't added much to the snowpack in the past week, but since the snowpack is normally starting to drop this time of year just holding steady makes the percentage go up.

Meanwhile, the Middle Fork half melt graph has not been updated since April 9th. In that iteration of the graph, they were comparing this year to an average snowpack year. When this graph is updated again I would not be surprised to see them start comparing this year to an above average snowpack year.


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## carvedog

Not sure which 8-14 day outlook you are using but mine shows above average temps to the end of the month. 

2011 is statistically very close to where we are now, but that year was very wet and cold all the way into June. Which is why Ron likely choose 2012 to compare to even though it is slightly below our snowpack level currently.

The difference in 3 to 3.5 inches of SWE is 3 days of 70+ temps or a week of 50+ on Banner anyway. So not going to affect the road that much. 

In 2012 we launched on Marsh Creek on May 17th at about 7 feet on the gauge or 10K cfs. That was the second peak. First peak was on about 4/28 at 11K cfs. 

So those of you are thinking this spring is going to be HUUUUGGEEE. May be disappointed. It will not be small but 138% of average with so many dry years averaged in doesn't mean as much to me as the SWE. 

We did have a lot of depth of snow this year. A lot of it was considerable drier than we normally get. Which means not as much water coming out of it. We also had almost completely bare slopes virtually everywhere in central Idaho until early February. Maybe in the more protected environment of the Snotel site that won't show but it does affect runoff in that the slopes that were bare hold more water, melt off quicker and less water hits the river. 

I started a spreadsheet so I don't have to keep going back to the Snotel site. 


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12IRlFtaoJGPutB7krt16m9T0l8a4UuxS0140syH7Mqc/edit?usp=sharing

The upshot of all this is I am likely cancelling my May 19th as I have been invited on a June 1st that I think is likely we will be able to drive in to launch. 
And fishing season is open then.....

Disclaimer: I make all this shit up. But I have been correct in my guesses more than I have been wrong. 2010 with its 9.5 foot peak did surprise but that was fueled by three days of hard rain. FWIW. 

Find your bliss.


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## Redside

So last year I went through all the previous years Mtn Buzz posts to figure out when the road opened or my best guess if it wasn't completely clear and then looked at the SWE and snow depth on Banner at 4/1 and the day the road opened. Below is what I found, sorry it's not all lined up, I tried. 

I'm thinking 3rd week of May for this year as long as we don't have a year like 2011 when a lot of snow came after 4/1, but a lot depends on how motivated those early season guys are.

on 4/1 Banner had 78" of snow and 28.6 SWE. 

Date Road Open | SWE | Snow Depth |4/1 snow depth|SWE
5/17/2018 9.2	21	67	24.6
6/8/2017 5.5	12	95	38.8
5/15/2016 6	12	74	29.2
5/7/2015 2.5	5	31	14
5/29/2014 5	12	82	26.5
5/13/2013 5.5	10	51	20.1
5/29/2012 7	16	86	29
6/15/2011 11.5	23	81 (94 on 5/3) 28.4 (33.6 on 5/3)


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## codycleve

These pics of marsh creek just came across my Facebook 

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## codycleve

.

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## kayakfreakus

codycleve said:


> These pics of marsh creek just came across my Facebook


Looking pretty clear and good to go 🤔


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## mania

codycleve said:


> .
> 
> Sent from my SM-G920V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


I mean... someone thought to bring a raft and actually blow it up and launch?


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## codycleve

Lol notice the skis on the raft... said it was a raft ski trip. 

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## codycleve

Link to marsh creek avalanches https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...&ll=44.4705945652443,-115.21566518235954&z=13

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## wsmckinney

*Thanks*

codycleve, thank you so much, and thanks to your friends for charging the unknown gnar.


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## CoBoater

holy portage, batman!


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## sbarker

Well......Here we are again. I am launching May 22nd. It's snowing today in Big Sky. Any beta on Boundary? Wanted to start the conversation again. Carvedog? Rumor has it there are bets being placed. I hoping someone else will take a turn this year.........


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## MotorMan27

sbarker.....I too am tracking the status of the snowpack and flow for the MF as I'll be launching on the 10th of June. I did notice this and am, for the first time in my boating life, hoping I don't catch the peak flow for my trip. If this holds true I'm thinking the peak will occur toward the end of May.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-04-27-may-temperature-outlook-forecast-the-weather-company


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## carvedog

MotorMan27 said:


> If this holds true I'm thinking the peak will occur toward the end of May.


 Why? Earlier peak flow has been the trend and continues for the last ten years or so. No indication of anything different this year. SWE already at 25. Warm weather kicking back in towards the weekend. Peak will likely happen mid Month at the latest. 

sbarker. I think you have a shot at Boundary. There will still be snow but you know the drill. More than the summit shoveling, I might be concerned about the two slide paths on the downhill side. Seems like snow loading and subsequent avies were more prominent on the north and east sides than the west, but I'm just a dirtbag armchair QB who will likely have to ride the pine this spring.

Ten inches of SWE and you can get in if you want. Melt rates in the low 60s last week were producing a 3/4 inch per day reduction in SWE. I expect that to kick back in soon. You have 21 days...so it is pretty possible. 

It looks like I am unable to use my May 19 so will be turning it back in soon. Have to figure out the how to not get penalized thing.


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## MotorMan27

If I remember the fine print correctly you don't incur the penalty if road closure or high water affect your launch date. Worth checking into.


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## Rockgizmo

Since it May 1st, guess I should ask. What the update on the prediction of when the road into Boundary open’s?


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## carvedog

Rockgizmo said:


> Since it May 1st, guess I should ask. What the update on the prediction of when the road into Boundary open’s?


How bad do you want it?


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## Andy H.

carvedog said:


> How bad do you want it?


Nice to see some shrewd business expertise helping to bring in $$ during the mud season, Jerry!


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## carvedog

Andy H. said:


> Nice to see some shrewd business expertise helping to bring in $$ during the mud season, Jerry!


Hey Andy. Not pimping anybody for commercial work on a Forest Service Road, just seeing what their tolerance for pain is.


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## Rockgizmo

carvedog said:


> How bad do you want it?


On a June 4 permit, just wondering if I need to leave a few days earlier to help shovel?


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## carvedog

Rockgizmo said:


> On a June 4 permit, just wondering if I need to leave a few days earlier to help shovel?


I think you will be good by then for sure. Unless it snows two feet of heavy, wet snow - which could happen. It is Idaho.


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## Sharpjj

*May 1 road conditions*

I drove by on the highway yesterday and still over 3' at the start. See the attached pictures.


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## bert

Any locals have an update on Boundary access? TIA!


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## pearen

Just want to make sure everyone saw this update via the FS:


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## bert

We are travelling from WV and have a launch permit for May 21st. Looks like it will be close with getting the road to Boundary open. Anyone want to join us Sunday/Monday (19th and 20th) to help dig and get the road open?


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## Whitewater Worthy Equip

This is why we fly.


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## bert

Whitewater Worthy Equip said:


> This is why we fly.


Cool story.


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## carvedog

Solid snow at least a foot deep all the way to parking lot today. I will have to do more research tomorrow to get a better melt rate comparison but the 21st is looking a bit iffy. Or like a bit of work. All depends on attitude I guess. 

Super warm and melting like crazy but not sure about the road by then. Good luck all. If I can help I will.


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## 50119

This could help, but USFS would frown upon it I assume.


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## bert

carvedog said:


> Solid snow at least a foot deep all the way to parking lot today. I will have to do more research tomorrow to get a better melt rate comparison but the 21st is looking a bit iffy. Or like a bit of work. All depends on attitude I guess.
> 
> Super warm and melting like crazy but not sure about the road by then. Good luck all. If I can help I will.


Thank you for the update!


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## carvedog

chiefstilh20 said:


> This could help, but USFS would frown upon it I assume.


Not as long as you put up something maybe called a performance bond, to guarantee you don't damage the road or that you can repair after. 

In 2011 we had a permit for June 16th. And it kept snowing and snowing. On 6-15 with 12 inches of SWE still showing we dug our way in. Since it was mid June we had a large trip and one that I was not going to take down Marsh. During several conversations with different USFS peeps was when I found out they have a budget for plowing the road, but the river ranger at the time wanted to 'rest' those upper camps some more and suggested we fly in....?????

I did find out that snowblowers were allowed and I had lined up a skid steer mounted front end blower with rubber tires (chains still mounted) to rent for $300 per day. This seemed to satisfy the requirements of the FS to not use roadbed altering equipment. Anything with a track seems to fall into that category. I also know someone who tries to drive in early just for fun. Lifted, diesel with no bed on it and runs 35s I think. I bought his fuel one year just to see if we could make it in three days before launch. We did and three days later it was an easy drive in. With warm weather anyway, once the snow has been busted up a bit, it melts pretty easy. 


I will add that last year someone ended up going thru the ditch near the top. It is imperative that we not use the off the road area to drive in, or we risk the FS closing the road completely until they deem it OK to drive on. Please, if you go in early and dig it out, stay on the road. It there is too much resource damage off the road, or a rut that gets created and causes water to divert drainage enough to damage the road, they will lock it up.


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## 50119

We had to have a permit where we annualy used a cat on 8 miles of USFS road and they required a base layer of snow left. There can be considerable damage (rutting) done if it's driven on too soon and abused. Plowing snow is not as easy as one would assume especially in shady areas w/6' plus of snow.


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## Rivers

This was 5/9 a few days ago


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## bert

Thanks for posting these! Looks like Marsh Creek is most likely for our 5/21 permit.


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## Andy H.

You may want to bring the chainsaw...



bert said:


> Thanks for posting these! Looks like Marsh Creek is most likely for our 5/21 permit.


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## carvedog

Andy H. said:


> You may want to bring the chainsaw...


Which reminds me....seems like I heard or read or maybe imagined a couple of slides on the downhill side at the bottom of the big grade. That isn't unusual but it seems this one might be particularly wood filled. 

Just so you know what kind of sick bastard you all are dealing with: the idea of driving thru super deep snow and getting stuck and digging out multiple times, becoming soaked to the bone in the process in the likely to be rain off and on, then head down the hill to find a 20 foot deep debris pile full of wooden skewers, actually sounds pretty fun. 

I have kayaked Marsh Creek looking for a body before. Seems like they had a ranger at the put in explaining things and where to avoid a rope in the water. Put a different spin on the day. We didn't find her. They flipped on a log and she was found some time later on another logjam. When things go bad, they go bad quickly. And don't let the Creek name fool you, it can be really challenging. 

Today it's over six feet and only going to get harder as it gets higher. Eddies become smaller or turn into just finding the slowest water and dallying a tree or bush. I have enjoyed running Marsh Creek a couple of times. A couple of other times were fairly puckering. At 6+ feet on a rising river with hundreds to thousands of new logs on or next to the river doesn't sound like much fun to me. There were 8 to 10 vehicles near the Marsh Creek launch which terrified me in a way. 

Please be safe out there.


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## Whitewater Worthy Equip

carvedog said:


> Which reminds me....seems like I heard or read or maybe imagined a couple of slides on the downhill side at the bottom of the big grade. That isn't unusual but it seems this one might be particularly wood filled.
> 
> Just so you know what kind of sick bastard you all are dealing with: the idea of driving thru super deep snow and getting stuck and digging out multiple times, becoming soaked to the bone in the process in the likely to be rain off and on, then head down the hill to find a 20 foot deep debris pile full of wooden skewers, actually sounds pretty fun.
> 
> I have kayaked Marsh Creek looking for a body before. Seems like they had a ranger at the put in explaining things and where to avoid a rope in the water. Put a different spin on the day. We didn't find her. They flipped on a log and she was found some time later on another logjam. When things go bad, they go bad quickly. And don't let the Creek name fool you, it can be really challenging.
> 
> Today it's over six feet and only going to get harder as it gets higher. Eddies become smaller or turn into just finding the slowest water and dallying a tree or bush. I have enjoyed running Marsh Creek a couple of times. A couple of other times were fairly puckering. At 6+ feet on a rising river with hundreds to thousands of new logs on or next to the river doesn't sound like much fun to me. There were 8 to 10 vehicles near the Marsh Creek launch which terrified me in a way.
> 
> Please be safe out there.




I second everything above and would add the following. The bridge on cape horn can become an obstacle at high water. The fish trap will be in play. If you don't know where the beaver ponds are to scout the sluice box below figure it out prior to launching. The portage at Dagger is a long ass SOB so be prepared. 

When Marsh goes bad, it does so very quickly and often ends in injury and/or death so be prepared. 

Have a Safe and fun early season.


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## washoe999

Marsh Creek - Any more recent beta on Marsh Creek? Has anyone seen trucks parked up there. Any trips off soon. Planning on a mid-week launch next week but don’t want to be trapped in a wood shitshow with a cataraft and hand saw


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## codycleve

My buddy has been shuttling a few cars to cache bar. So someone is running it, although they could be fly ins to indian. 

There is a Selway permit up for Sunday right now.. and one wasted today.


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## bert

codycleve said:


> My buddy has been shuttling a few cars to cache bar. So someone is running it, although they could be fly ins to indian.
> 
> There is a Selway permit up for Sunday right now.. and one wasted today.



Tell me more! From where is he picking the cars up?


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## codycleve

bert said:


> Tell me more! From where is he picking the cars up?


I didn't pry, we where going down river to float our day stretch and he had to run a few shuttles to cache first.. 

only 1 out of the seven available permits for today is still available. I believe you get penalized if you don't cancel your permit.. but maybe that is only the actual lottery season.


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## codycleve

might try calling river shuttles.com and ask.


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## bert

Gotcha. Thanks!


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## jkisraft

*Looks like a wood shit show on Marsh right now*

The MF Salmon forest service web page was updated yesterday and reported a flipped raft on Marsh badly damaged and wood moving all over. Wood as far down as Sheepeater avy shutes with an upright log spinning in the eddy below Pistol creek. heres what it says:


*May 15 Boater Report* - log jam about four miles downstream of the Marsh Creek footbridge. Avalanche chutes near Sheepeater continue to deposit debris across the river, sending wood, logs and trees downstream. There's a log stuck upright and spinning in the eddy behind a rock in Pistol Creek Rapid.​ *May 14 Boater Report - *Marsh Creek group flipped a raft; it was badly damaged; avalanche chutes are spawning into the river, lots of fluctuating log jams. Also lost a kayak near Pistol Creek rapids; last seen under a log jam; kayaker injured but okay.​


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## keithh2o

Loads of new snow over Banner Summit the last 24 hours, I'm sure the road into Boundary Creek got a few more inches at least.


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## carvedog

keithh2o said:


> Loads of new snow over Banner Summit the last 24 hours, I'm sure the road into Boundary Creek got a few more inches at least.


Hasn't been close to freezing since the 11th. SWE continued to drop this week by 5.5 inches including 3/4 inch until this morning in the last 24. 

Likely getting snow now but still pretty warm at 39 degrees for snow. 

Where did you get this info about lots of snow?


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## NEOR

*Predicting Flows Question*

I'm wondering how much use the Banner Snotel site is in predicting flows. We are currently right at average SWE. Other years with similar mid-May SWE at Banner saw drops below 5ft around June 10. However, the long-term probabilistic forecast charts show virtually no chance of it being under 6 at the same time.

Obviously this is far from an exact science, but just wondering what sources people primarily use to try to make sense of it all. Or, is it a total waste of time trying to draw conclusions 3-4 weeks out? Thanks.


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## carvedog

NEOR said:


> I'm wondering how much use the Banner Snotel site is in predicting flows. We are currently right at average SWE. Other years with similar mid-May SWE at Banner saw drops below 5ft around June 10. However, the long-term probabilistic forecast charts show virtually no chance of it being under 6 at the same time.
> 
> Obviously this is far from an exact science, but just wondering what sources people primarily use to try to make sense of it all. Or, is it a total waste of time trying to draw conclusions 3-4 weeks out? Thanks.



Banner Snotel shows stored energy if you will. I view the SWE as an area and to a certain extent streamflow has to match that area until the gauge melts off and then has no ability to show stored energy. 

Streamflow will depend on a number of environmental factors that are beyond the scope of one Snotel site. When the snow came, moisture content and temperature of the soil and current temperatures and when the snow became isothermic. 


I don't think there is much chance of it being six feet on June 10th. I am even thinking that it might not be six feet on June 1st. But my armchair weather prognostication has been wrong before. 

What is the long range probabilistical forecast you refer to?


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## keithh2o

I drove up to Banner Summit today. I was scouting the Grand Jean section of the Payette to kayak this weekend.


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## bert

keithh2o said:


> I drove up to Banner Summit today. I was scouting the Grand Jean section of the Payette to kayak this weekend.


That sounds promising. Did you get there and get stopped by snow? Thoughts on making it to Boundary based on what you saw?


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## StationWagon

bert said:


> codycleve said:
> 
> 
> 
> My buddy has been shuttling a few cars to cache bar. So someone is running it, although they could be fly ins to indian.
> 
> There is a Selway permit up for Sunday right now.. and one wasted today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tell me more! From where is he picking the cars up?
Click to expand...


We took off yesterday after putting in on Marsh 5/12. The last FS report was us, with the flipped raft. There was potential for river wide wood around every corner on Marsh. While passing one of the slides, a chunk of snow the size of a car dropped into the river, full of logs. This is probably happening all day. It was constantly changing. We took 2 days to get to dagger falls with 3 rafts and 11 kayaks. After Dagger, flows were juicy, wood was floating, but lines were clear.


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## keithh2o

I did not try to go over Banner, time was short! The people I know that regularly do early season MF runs are contradicting each other - some say it will be open by the end of the week, some are saying after 1st of June. I have a July launch so I think I'm safe


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## bert

keithh2o said:


> I did not try to go over Banner, time was short! The people I know that regularly do early season MF runs are contradicting each other - some say it will be open by the end of the week, some are saying after 1st of June. I have a July launch so I think I'm safe


Fair enough, thanks! We'll be in Stanley tonight and taking a look at the road to Boundary on Sunday. If anyone wants to join us, hit me up!


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## NEOR

carvedog said:


> What is the long range probabilistical forecast you refer to?


This is what I was referring to, although its changed a bit. 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/probability_information.php?wfo=boi&gage=midi1

Thanks


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## MotorMan27

Judging by what all y'all are posting it looks like the road will be open by June 10 for my launch on the 11th. Are we thinking the flow will be under 6 ft?

Are there any companies that will haul people from Stanley or cache barr to boundary?
Thx


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## bert

*Boundary still snowy*

Still a lot of snow at the turnoff for Boundary from 21. We did not attempt access due to snow.


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## codycleve

MotorMan27 said:


> Are there any companies that will haul people from Stanley or cache barr to boundary?
> Thx


Rivershuttles.com does van charters

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## kavukavu

Finished a Marsh/Middle/Main trip on Friday. We launched on Marsh Creek on 5/13 with seven kayakers. No portages on Marsh were necessary, but a lot of wood everywhere. We passed the raft/kayak group that ran into trouble around 10:30am on Monday on Marsh. None of us ran Dagger, not due to wood, but because the looks of the hole. No wood in Pistol on morning of 5/14. Big thanks to Justin and Nick from McCall for leading the way.


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## bert

kavukavu said:


> Finished a Marsh/Middle/Main trip on Friday. We launched on Marsh Creek on 5/13 with seven kayakers. No portages on Marsh were necessary, but a lot of wood everywhere. We passed the raft/kayak group that ran into trouble around 10:30am on Monday on Marsh. None of us ran Dagger, not due to wood, but because the looks of the hole. No wood in Pistol on morning of 5/14. Big thanks to Justin and Nick from McCall for leading the way.


Thanks for the report!


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## shortbus

*MFS update 2019*

we were a group of 5 self-support kayakers, 

We launched 5/13 in the evening and camped 3 miles down Marsh at the first Avalanche slide area. Portaged one log at the site on Marsh where the large jam was last year that got the raft. This year the jam is on the left of the creek. Sounds like it might have broke loose.
There was another considerable jam on river left at the bottom of the Sluice Box, (Canyon Rapid) on Marsh. We were able to run the drop and go right safely. no other portages up high were necessary, We portaged Dagger, (as always) and many of us elected to portage Pistol as well due to the Pungee stick log protruding out of the wall in the river left eddy. This was at 6.5'. so its likely not even there now.

Lots of avalanche slides that were blown clear but continue to deposit wood into the river both in Marsh and on the MF proper. The good news is that most of that lumber is pulverized and relatively short so its not as likely to hang up but most corners and debris magnets are well-stocked with wood. I'm sure conditions will continue to change with a fluctuation in flows.


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## shortbus

Also, almost every large eddy had wood circulating in it so be aware when pulling into an eddy that you might not be alone in it.


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## idahoriversrat

What is latest on the road? Thanks!


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## codycleve

Thus just came across my facebook feed. 

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## codycleve

That was posted by the owner of middlefork wildness outfitters 3 hrs ago

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## codycleve

Sounds like the pic was from yesterday... they have a launch on the 4th and are going to try again this weekend.. 

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## sweencat

*Need the "CarveDog" analysis*

We have a launch date of 6/4 and are on the lookout for the Boundary Creek road to melt out. With the current weather, it's going down to the wire for the road to open.


CarveDog always has the best view of what the probabilities are, so what is your best guess? Thanks in advance for sharing your knowledge.


Cheers,
Brian


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## Elevatedexpeditions

May 30th launch here.....all the photos seem to show lots of tire tracks through the snow? Are they making it the entire way to the river? The road drops in elevation as you get closer to the river I’m assuming? So less snow the farther you go? I’m planning to check the road out on the 27th-28th.....chains and 4x4? What are the odds the river stays where it’s at? Currently 4.7 feet or lower??


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## carvedog

Elevatedexpeditions said:


> May 30th launch here.....all the photos seem to show lots of tire tracks through the snow? Are they making it the entire way to the river? The road drops in elevation as you get closer to the river I’m assuming? So less snow the farther you go? I’m planning to check the road out on the 27th-28th.....chains and 4x4? What are the odds the river stays where it’s at? Currently 4.7 feet or lower??


Have you never driven in? Just curious, not trying to start anything. No one has made it in. Elevation at the road is 6,700 feet. The pass you must go over is 7,200. And it goes thru some deep shade at the summit that holds snow. Only a foot deep at the highway. I guarantee it is three feet deep at the summit. 

After that the road drops. There will be an avalanche debris pile about a mile form the summit that I am at least a bit concerned about. I would bring a chainsaw. 

And a square scoop landscaper shovel and maybe an aluminum scoop shovel as well. Oh and your chains. And maybe a winch. And a lifted 4WD running tall tires. And some whiskey. And some ibuprofen....


The river will almost certainly rise next week with warming temps and get into more of a diurnal cycle where it will peak late evening and then go down.


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## Elevatedexpeditions

*2019 Middle Fork hazards and Access Thread*

So you’re telling me there’s a chance....haha


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## idahoriversrat

Thanks everyone for the pictures and update. It is definitely greatly appreciated.


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## Raft Dad

*Thanks Carvedog*

Carvedog, i have used your road assessments the last 4 years and appreciate your experienced, intelligent and no- bullshit input. We have a June 4th launch. Fingers crossed. Thanks again.


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## bsimcoe

I've got a 29th launch. Thinking about going up Saturday or Sunday with chainsaw, shovels. Anyone else??? CD???


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## MotorMan27

You boys need to grow a SACK!! I have a June 10 launch and y'all need to have the road clear by then. I'm working in Hell (west Texas) until my launch or I'd handle it. LOL


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## codycleve

I think the people with the june fourth have a lot going for them.. commercial groups launch on the fourth and they dont want to miss out on their $$$.. there is a warming trend comming next week.. 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## bsimcoe

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-115.29217532649639&lat=44.33422844951619


This forcast shows more snow in the next 4-5 days than west Texas has seen in the last 20 yrs. Here's your sack


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## carvedog

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi

Shows fairly warm daytime temps over the next few days. And just touching on freezing. I think more in Stanley than up on the pass. 

Stanley is already 58°F at Noon and rising. Even with the storm coming in today










....there is going to be some melting. Accelerated if it rains hard with 60+ temps. Could be some touches of snow (or feet) who knows, but I don't think so. 

This is a google earth view from just past the summit all the back to hiway 21 at the very top. Once it clears the flat area it goes into some pretty deep shade. Rain melted snow does not depend on solar exposure to melt, so it might not be the 40+ inches we had one year. From the B, in Bear Valley on the road description, is where it gets tough. 

The distinctive V you see on left, lower left is where the avalanches come to the road. At least the one that has the potential for more logs. The v face just below the green line also goes to the road regularly but I wouldn't expect it to have as much debris. 










In this view north is straight left so the avy paths are running NW to West which is a similar aspect to some very large slides/slow moving freight trains that came into neighborhoods off the North side of Baldy in Ketchum. So it could be big.

Pretty sure a couple of people will be there on Sunday, maybe even me. Let the Boundary Road Sufferfest begin...


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## MotorMan27

Carvedog maybe we should start a go-fund-me page to raise $ to enable you warriors to rent a skidsteer with a snowblower


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## bert

Put on off Marsh/MF on Monday, May 20th and took off at Cache Bar on Saturday, May 25th. Level went from 5.5 on Monday down to 4.5 on Saturday.

Marsh was generally clear with no mandatory portages. There was one river-wide log that we were able to slide over the right side. It may be more in play at lower levels. There are a lot of trees in the banks and I’m sure this can change as levels fluctuate. 

Wood wasn’t an issue anywhere on the MF, and we didn’t see the log that was reported in Pistol.


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## sweencat

Thanks for the update

Sent from my LG-H700 using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## carvedog




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## Rockgizmo

Awesome and thanks to your team for getting in there Carvedog! Can’t wait to see it again myself. 

How was the road in?


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## carvedog




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## carvedog

The road in was not too bad actually. 
The second slide was on a tighter part of the road than I thought it would be, but only 60 yards further south. 
And it will be pretty tight for several days. Bring a shovel and do your part to widen it out if you can.


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## carvedog

There will still need to be some chainsaw work done as it melts out and it is very narrow currently thru the slide path. 
To be honest it was fairly brutal to get through this. But it made the snow on the summit easy by comparison. 

Anyone driving in will still need high clearance, 4WD and maybe chains to get over the summit. 
Remember: Wheel spin is not your friend. 
We did get one trailer thru yesterday but it was being pulled by a lifted, chained up 1 ton with lots of gear on. 
At least for a few days have a plan that includes dropping your trailer and just taking a truck in with the gear. 

Edit to add: Yes this area is really sketchy. You will want a spotter in front guiding your front wheels. And if it starts to go toward the edge you will need 
to be pulled back out. That big berm on the left or downhill side is mostly soft snow. It won't hold you, so be careful and plan accordingly. Far and Away Adventures provided the horsepower, so if you see them on the river this summer - be nice. 
There were three other outfitters that knew what we were doing but they didn't feel like sending any help. Lazy bastards.


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## Idaho_ski_bum

Carvedog and co gettin' shit done! Strong work out there!


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## Raft Dad

Any new reports from the last 3 or 4 days before we leave town for a June 3rd launch?


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## austinj

First, thanks everyone for your efforts on the road in.

Couple questions:
First trip at high water, what's a reasonable distance to cover? We're thinking about a 7 day trip and wondering if some 25 mile days would be too much (to enable some layovers). Seems like the river will be moving fast, any idea on an average mph?

Cave Camp at 51.8 Miles (Below Loon) we have a small group of 5, what flow is this camp accessible?

Big Creek at 77.9 Miles: The camp sheet says 4 people, are these hard rules or will the rangers consider 5 people?

Any particular camps you would recommend for a small group?

Thanks!


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## carvedog

austinj said:


> First, thanks everyone for your efforts on the road in.
> 
> Couple questions:
> First trip at high water, what's a reasonable distance to cover? We're thinking about a 7 day trip and wondering if some 25 mile days would be too much (to enable some layovers). Seems like the river will be moving fast, any idea on an average mph?
> 
> Cave Camp at 51.8 Miles (Below Loon) we have a small group of 5, what flow is this camp accessible?
> 
> Big Creek at 77.9 Miles: The camp sheet says 4 people, are these hard rules or will the rangers consider 5 people?
> 
> Any particular camps you would recommend for a small group?
> 
> Thanks!


10 at the flows of next week. Not sure when you go. 
Typically this time of year we launch at noon or 1. Float for 2 or three hours and then have lunch at our camp. You will have time for two layovers if you want. Easily. 

Cave Camp isn't much of a camp TBH. At high water it is less. You can stop there but the only flat ground will be under your boat. Big Creek is not a good high water camp either. If you refer to conluence camp on river left. If you go around the corner on the right, the only possible reason I would camp there is to spend the day hiking up Big Creek for some fishing. There isn't one flat piece of ground in the whole camp. 

There are lots of great campsites and there aren't that many people out there. Camp at the really good ones. The River Ranger will guide you if possible. I launch Saturday and have things to do so won't be able to give much guidance. 

This doesn't have photos of every camp, but most.

https://whitewatercampsites.com/p-middlefork.html


I am assuming you are using this list
https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5345683.pdf

Not sure why they show 4 people capacity at high water for Big Creek, no idea where you would sleep, let alone set up a kitchen. Maybe there is something there but I don't know about it.

They may allow layovers if there is no one behind you much at some of the camps not marked L. Depends on how busy it is.


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## austinj

Awesome, thanks for the info and enjoy your trip! We launch June 6 and looks like roughly similar (or slightly higher) flows than now.

The pictures are extremely helpful, thanks!


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## caseyh

carvedog said:


> Anyone driving in will still need high clearance, 4WD and maybe chains to get over the summit.


Do you expect this will still be true on June 6th? We have a 7th launch. 

BTW thanks for everyone's constant input and efforts. Last years planning went way easier with this treads help. 

Any word on how ugly the wood is on Marsh at this point?


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## ch3no2

What level allows for a run left of the big rock at Velvet Falls?


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## BenSlaughter

When I ran it two years ago at 6.6' it was not open to a big raft.

Ben


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## Riverwild

I disagree, anything above 6' it should be open if there isn't wood in the way. I've also ran it at 6.6' and missed the shot ended up surfing velvet for what felt like an eternity, but it spit me out upright luckily.


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## BenSlaughter

"I disagree, anything above 6' it should be open if there isn't wood in the way. I've also ran it at 6.6' and missed the shot ended up surfing velvet for what felt like an eternity, but it spit me out upright luckily."

I agree that it should have been open.
And I've been trying to recall why it wasn't. 
We stopped to scout it, as there had been a boat wrapped on a log above Velvet the day prior, but it (the boat and log) had been removed that morning...
The left sneak was definitely not open, on my last high water trip.
Ben


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## idahoriversrat

We launched on 31 May and got off on 3 Jun. A trip shorter than I prefer, but we had to accommodate one individual in our group so he could be back in SLC by this Wednesday. The left sneak is open on Velvet and the flow was between 5.8 to 6'. It is tight, but doable. We had two 14" round boats and 1 14' cat. As for any other obstacles on the river, we experienced the periodic log following us down the river. We were super happy that the road to Boundary was open and super thanks to those that made it happen. The out of towners are very blessed with the local community by rallying to get the road open. We would not have been able to run the MFS without your help.


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## ch3no2

Thank you for the info idahoriversrat, BenSlaughter, and Riverwild!


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## flite

Hey what's happening out there in Idaho? Looks like the river is plummeting right now. Is all the snow melted? did it get cold and start snowing again or something? Any eyes on the river? We leave CO on Wednesday and launch Sat the 15th. Any info is always appreciated. Thanks


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## 50119

flite said:


> Hey what's happening out there in Idaho? Looks like the river is plummeting right now. Is all the snow melted? did it get cold and start snowing again or something? Any eyes on the river? We leave CO on Wednesday and launch Sat the 15th. Any info is always appreciated. Thanks


Look at the weather for Stanley for an idea what is going on. 40 - 50 degrees in the day and snow at those temps were forecast the past couple of days. At night Stanley has been in the 20's. This coming week I bet the flows pick back up when warmer temps come back day and night. Our launch is on the 21st and we expect water above 5'


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## mikes

*this site is helpful*

I use this site as a resource. Expand the map. MF at lodge is the white dot by challis national forest. 

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

peace
mike


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## carvedog

flite said:


> Hey what's happening out there in Idaho? Looks like the river is plummeting right now. Is all the snow melted? did it get cold and start snowing again or something? Any eyes on the river? We leave CO on Wednesday and launch Sat the 15th. Any info is always appreciated. Thanks


The only 'eyes' on the river that I know of that you can look at anytime. 
https://flyingresortranches.com/live-webcam/

River running clear. Two nights of no freeze on Banner and warm again today with not even an uptick on the gauge. 



chiefstilh20 said:


> Look at the weather for Stanley for an idea what is going on. 40 - 50 degrees in the day and snow at those temps were forecast the past couple of days. At night Stanley has been in the 20's. This coming week I bet the flows pick back up when warmer temps come back day and night. Our launch is on the 21st and we expect water above 5'


Hey chief....the flows might bump back up but I don't think there is much chance of 5'. Is there some prognistacatory tool that I am unaware of that is predicting that?


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## MT4Runner

I realize it’s a couple drainages further north, but the Lochsa is on its way down and the temperature continues to increase. 

I was expecting we would see more days with higher flows.

We are pretty well done with our snow pack.


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## 50119

carvedog said:


> The only 'eyes' on the river that I know of that you can look at anytime.
> https://flyingresortranches.com/live-webcam/
> 
> River running clear. Two nights of no freeze on Banner and warm again today with not even an uptick on the gauge.
> 
> 
> 
> Hey chief....the flows might bump back up but I don't think there is much chance of 5'. Is there some prognistacatory tool that I am unaware of that is predicting that?


I was venturing a guess based upon how fast it fell in a couple of day's over the weekend. After speaking with the river ranger today, the indication is snow just up high. Appears as though a manageable flow now for those on our trip in 10 days, without as much experience. 

It's your backyard so I will bow to your knowledge & resources.


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## carvedog

chiefstilh20 said:


> It's your backyard so I will bow to your knowledge & resources.


no need to bow brother. I was just wondering where you got your info. 

I spend waaaay too much time looking at Snotel data and historical temperature with flow comparisons and have even delved into soil temp vs runoff. 

It gets really weird. I think I am obsessed.


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## MT4Runner

carvedog said:


> I spend waaaay too much time looking at Snotel data and historical temperature with flow comparisons and have even delved into soil temp vs runoff.
> 
> It gets really weird. I think I am obsessed.


Some obsessive person built those Snotel sites, recording thermometers, NOAA/USGS websites/stream gauges. So obsession isn't really a bad thing.

I'm probably not quite so obsessed, but still far more than the vast majority of my boating friends.


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## melted_ice

carvedog said:


> no need to bow brother. I was just wondering where you got your info.
> 
> I spend waaaay too much time looking at Snotel data and historical temperature with flow comparisons and have even delved into soil temp vs runoff.
> 
> It gets really weird. I think I am obsessed.


Obsession says mid July flow will be?


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## carvedog

melted_ice said:


> Obsession says mid July flow will be?


2.6 on July 15th.


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## carvedog

carvedog said:


> 2.6 on July 15th.


For some reason this thread bumped with a new post that is now gone. Then I saw my guess. 

Looked back and it was 2.4....


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## Jake D

We're putting on in a couple weeks. Any recent beta? Should be working - obviously my mind is somewhere else...


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