# Will the ark flow?



## RockyMt.Razorback (Apr 19, 2012)

Has anyone recently looked at the Colorado SNOWTEL website. As of today April, 18th the snowpack of the Arkansas river valley is at 42% of average. In 2002 I believe the snowpack was around 67% of average and that year the ark peaked at around 750 cfs. Could SNOWTEL's numbers be wrong or are we really looking that bad this year. Does anyone remember if clear creek of the ark ran in 2002
Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Update Report


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Looks like Clear Creek Ark peaked around 165 cfs in 2002....


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## DanOrion (Jun 8, 2004)

Yes, it's that bad. If memory serves, some of the snowtel sites up by Leadville are looking better than the basin as a whole, but that's not saying much.


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## RockyMt.Razorback (Apr 19, 2012)

DanOrion said:


> Yes, it's that bad. If memory serves, some of the snowtel sites up by Leadville are looking better than the basin as a whole, but that's not saying much.


Dan you are right, two of the individual SNOWTEL sites are doing better than the basin average. Fremont pass is at 65% and South Colony is at 68%, which is closer to the 2002 snowpack numbers. Not sure if this well help the flows but they are better than the basin wide average. 

Everyone keep your hopes high that it will rain a lot this summer.


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## waterismyfriend (Mar 30, 2012)

*It will definitely run*

I guided for 8 years on the Ark and from April to September in 2002. You're right that the water was very low but the Royal Gorge especially is even more incredible when you get to spend 5 hours down there. This definitely won't be the year for big splashy waves, and you'll probably get stuck, but it will flow and I will be down there as often as possible. 
I also guide on Clear Creek right now - it too will flow and is actually doing better than the ark as far as snowpack. Again, it won't be a huge water season but you also won't get to experience it as technical as this for a long time to come. Look at the bright side!


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## GPP33 (May 22, 2004)

waterismyfriend said:


> I guided for 8 years on the Ark and from April to September in 2002. You're right that the water was very low but the Royal Gorge especially is even more incredible when you get to spend 5 hours down there. This definitely won't be the year for big splashy waves, and you'll probably get stuck, but it will flow and I will be down there as often as possible.
> I also guide on Clear Creek right now - it too will flow and is actually doing better than the ark as far as snowpack. Again, it won't be a huge water season but you also won't get to experience it as technical as this for a long time to come. Look at the bright side!


X2 that whole river is runable at those levels and is actually quite fun. Just a different kind of fun. The only problem is that it won't run for months on end like last year.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

The Ark is flowing now, and I would suggest getting out there while it is. Word is, AHRA moved too much water this winter and doesn't have enough western slope project water to guarantee releases. Sounds like 500 at Wellsville through July and August may be a real possibility...

The snowpack is dwindling fast, and with cooler weather forecast for next week I expect flows to drop back down Tuesday or Wednesday. After this bump there isn't going to be much left to come down. We are likely to see 1 more good bump in a week or two and I think that will be it. Get it while you can.


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## AHRA (Jun 19, 2009)

*Correction*

I just wanted to clarify that AHRA has no control over the amount of water that is released over the winter. There are other governing bodies that decide how much water should be released and when. We have organized a voluntary flow program to help maintain flows from July 15th thru Aug. 15th. FYI


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Your absolutely right. I apologize. My post should have read:

"Word is, the BOR and Upper Ark Water Conservancy moved too much water this winter...."


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## dustin.heron (Aug 17, 2008)

*Voluntary Flow Program...*



AHRA said:


> We have organized a voluntary flow program to help maintain flows from July 15th thru Aug. 15th. FYI


Good clarification. AHRA, what are the specifics of this year's voluntary program? Is there a certain level we can expect for a certain period of time? Thanks


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## FatmanZ (Sep 15, 2004)

What are the newbie stretches (Milk Run) like at the low flows? I was hoping to give my kids some quality time on the longer newbie stretches of the Ark this summer. When the flows are low are those runs still doable in kayaks or are they too wide and shallow?


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Milk Run is less channelized than anything else on the river, but you can kayak it without a problem at flows above 300 on the below Granite gauge. I tried to float it with less water than that, but there are a few gravel bars you can't get over without pushing.


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

dustin.heron said:


> Good clarification. AHRA, what are the specifics of this year's voluntary program? Is there a certain level we can expect for a certain period of time? Thanks


Dustin/Buzzards, I was just talking with AHRA about another topic and asked for the latest news. Unfortunately its really up in the air (literally) right now. 

It is true that the BOR moved a little too much water this past winter. AHRA is working to get commitments for at least 10,000 acre feet of flow program water and possibly more, from all the players (Pueblo, Pueblo West, BOR, Aurora, C. Springs). If Wildlife is willing to except a lower minimum flow next winter then the BOR can move more water this summer. 

Here is the problem. If the native flow is too low, then 10,000 acre feet (or 15,000 or whatever they get) will go very quickly trying to augment flows up to the normal 700. That would mean they would have to lower the target to something else (600? 500? lower?). If we have a wet, cold month (looks great right now) and the run off is later, then maybe native flows will be high enough that the augmentation will get us up to the 700 we are used to. 

Remember that in 2002 native flows got so low they used the augmentation water just to keep the fish cool at 250cfs in July and August.

Apparently there will be a meeting the week of the 21st and AHRA will know more then and share it with us. Pray for cold, rain and snow, but I know you already were. 

BTW, I cut a hole in my roof for a dormer last week so you can thank me for these last two storms.


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## SilverBullet (Jul 18, 2008)

thanks mike. helps to know the scoop.
pray for snow and cold. looking good outside right now. coming down pretty steady in BV. 
i finally shaved my head for summer last weekend and it snowed about 3 hours after.


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## steven (Apr 2, 2004)

hoping the flows come up some over the next 2-3 days. any word?


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## magpie&bear (Apr 4, 2010)

Looking to float the Ark in my raft from rincon to lone tree, camping with the wife in between. I'm an intermediate boater.I've never floated the Ark. Right now it's at 400cfs. Is this flow adequate for this float? At what point is it too low for this section? Thoughts and suggestions?


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

magpie&bear said:


> Looking to float the Ark in my raft from rincon to lone tree, camping with the wife in between. I'm an intermediate boater.I've never floated the Ark. Right now it's at 400cfs. Is this flow adequate for this float? At what point is it too low for this section? Thoughts and suggestions?


Yes, it is adequate. I wouldn't call it exciting by any means, but it is roadside, and pretty and you can get a fully loaded raft down it at 400 cfs. Granted, there will be a few gravel bars and shallow spots at the class II rapids, but if you can read and run class III you can easily do that stretch (stop and scout Cottonwood rapid from the highway before putting on). You might want to consider going down to Texas Creek too....

and I should also say thanks to Mike Harvey for giving us real information from a reliable source.


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## oarbender (Feb 3, 2007)

You think if I bring the dory it will come? 

I think I will. See you Monday, 21st. At fishermans bout 9 or so.

Worst case it's a cat boat.


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## dustin.heron (Aug 17, 2008)

*Thanks Mike*

Thanks, Mike... for the solid info and for cutting a hole in your roof ;-) Actually wait, it 75 again. Looks like the gauge might be starting to climb a bit


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

Just received an update from AHRA. The bottom line is there will be a flow program. However there will not be enough of a flow program to get us to the normal 700cfs. Without getting into every detail there is a deficit. Its pretty obvious, not enough snow, not enough coming into the storage system = very little water available to augment flows. 

No one knows what flow they will be able to maintain at this point because it depends on the weather. If native flows drop very low soon and the augmentation needs to last all summer then the target flow will be low. If there is precip. and cooler temps and native flows peter along for a while then maybe in July we can still be in this 400-500 range. The basement is 250 because that is what the BOR tries to maintain to keep the fish cool. 

As someone that paddles the Ark year round I can tell you that there is plenty of fun to be had at lower flows and when its hot...I'm going paddling. Great year to learn to SUP .


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## ckspaddler (Sep 25, 2008)

*Ark this year/BV area*

I just recently got employed by CKS and have resorted to paddling in the BV area. The Ark has been coming up to 500cfs or more in the afternoon for after-work runs on Pine Creek/Numbers and the play at the BV park isn't bad. Especially with SUP boards to change it up. Lake Creek has been running almost every day. We were able to catch the last four at over 400cfs a few days ago before making the 1.5 hour drive to OBJ in the same day. 
Also, there is buzz around town that they will be releasing for CKS Paddlefest and maybe even longer. 
I'm from the Southeast and we always have creeks running. I am having a blast here in the BV area! Especially with my mountain bike, a playboat, a few creekers, and my running shoes. Working for a company that sells products that I love helps too.

Zach


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## Phil U. (Feb 7, 2009)

Mike Harvey said:


> Just received an update from AHRA. The bottom line is there will be a flow program. However there will not be enough of a flow program to get us to the normal 700cfs. Without getting into every detail there is a deficit. Its pretty obvious, not enough snow, not enough coming into the storage system = very little water available to augment flows.
> 
> No one knows what flow they will be able to maintain at this point because it depends on the weather. If native flows drop very low soon and the augmentation needs to last all summer then the target flow will be low. If there is precip. and cooler temps and native flows peter along for a while then maybe in July we can still be in this 400-500 range. The basement is 250 because that is what the BOR tries to maintain to keep the fish cool.
> 
> As someone that paddles the Ark year round I can tell you that there is plenty of fun to be had at lower flows and when its hot...I'm going paddling. Great year to learn to SUP .


Thank you for the info, Mike. Just got off the Numbers with 11! other folks who are in town early for Paddlefest, and all agreed that the Numbers at 480 (0 thru 7} was damn good fun. The rio was busy this past weekend and everyone had a smile on their face. Come and get some and enjoy a damn good river/party weekend.


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## dustin.heron (Aug 17, 2008)

Phil U. said:


> Thank you for the info, Mike. Just got off the Numbers with 11! other folks who are in town early for Paddlefest, and all agreed that the Numbers at 480 (0 thru 7} was damn good fun. The rio was busy this past weekend and everyone had a smile on their face. Come and get some and enjoy a damn good river/party weekend.


Yep, thanks again for the inside info, Mike. My pops is quite the low water aficionado and has introduced me to the fun of ELFing the numbers.... bottom line is that 500 on the numbers is straight fun and can hardly be called "low water".... 

Leave behind your expectations of a big water run, bust out your creek boat and boof water-polished rocks for miles on end-- damn fun. Channelized, flowy, high quality class 3/4 creeking.

Let's all rally for some epic partying and fun with our river community. See you this weekend!


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## marko (Feb 25, 2004)

Mike Harvey said:


> Just received an update from AHRA. The bottom line is there will be a flow program. However there will not be enough of a flow program to get us to the normal 700cfs. Without getting into every detail there is a deficit. Its pretty obvious, not enough snow, not enough coming into the storage system = very little water available to augment flows.
> 
> No one knows what flow they will be able to maintain at this point because it depends on the weather. If native flows drop very low soon and the augmentation needs to last all summer then the target flow will be low. If there is precip. and cooler temps and native flows peter along for a while then maybe in July we can still be in this 400-500 range. The basement is 250 because that is what the BOR tries to maintain to keep the fish cool.
> 
> As someone that paddles the Ark year round I can tell you that there is plenty of fun to be had at lower flows and when its hot...I'm going paddling. Great year to learn to SUP .


As a low-water "veteran" of the Ark who experienced 2002 this whole debate surrounding the flow program feels all too familiar - lots of "if this" and "if thats", but it all comes down to the fact that recreational flow programs are near the bottom of the priority list during a drought year (keeping the farm lands green and growing, and keeping the fish cool is much more important than ensuring tourists get a little water splashed in their face). 

It will be running 300 to 350 CFS by July 1st. Yep, I just gave my prediction. And only the God of monsoons will be able to prove me wrong. Oh God, please do prove me wrong.

And, yep, you can still have fun at this flow. I can remember every tiny hole and seam I could throw my EZ around in, and I remember nearly every single raft guide complaining about how many times they had to yell "popcorn" to their custys in attempts to get their raft dislodged from rocks. However this summer I surely won't be driving 2 hours for this type of fun.... but I will happily meet all of my Ark valley friends at the Bailey put-in when they are getting bored of running the Ark at 300 in July


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

Todays update is that there are various parties exercising exchanges that equal 250cfs. Colorado Springs alone is exchanging 150. This means there is 250 being held back right now that would otherwise be in the river. AHRA was making a request to the Springs that they reduce their exchange for the weekend so we may see a little bump for Paddlefest which would be great. Good conditions down here....500+ is the line of demarcation where the Ark gets a lot more fun.


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## AHRA (Jun 19, 2009)

Here is plan.


On Tuesday (05/22/12) the signatories of the Voluntary Flow Management Program (VFMP) met to discuss the summer component of the VFMP in an attempt to determine how much water may be available for flow augmentation during this summer’s July 1st – August 15th time period.

As you are aware, Colorado has not seen such poor snowpack readings since 2002, and I am not going to try to sugar-coat the reality of the situation by saying that everything is going to be fine, that is simply not the case. The truth is that the Bureau of Reclamation and other water provides will be able to provide for some type of flow augmentation this year, but exactly how the water will be released (how much / when / for how long) still needs to be determined at a meeting planned for June 22nd.

What we do know is that all parties involved in the VFMP are attempting to facilitate a number of strategies that will potentially provide up to 7,000 – 9,000 acre feet of water available for augmentation in 2012(including maintaining minimum flows of 250 cfs at critical times of the year as dictated by the VFMP). Therefore, given the fact that 2012 is shaping up to be similar to 2002, where the native flow of the river was below 300 cfs for a significant portion of the summer, we know we will not be able to maintain 700 cfs in the river, nor 600 cfs in the river, nor perhaps even 500 cfs in the river, it is simply not possible given the fact that augmenting the native flow of the river by 200 cfs per day over a 45 day period would utilize 18,000 acre feet of water.

What we did discuss today was to utilize a strategy that attempts to keep flows at a level that allows boats to continue to float through Browns Canyon and the Royal Gorge for the month of July. Then, if conditions allow continued flow augmentation, keep flows at a level that allows boats to continue to float through Browns Canyon and the Royal Gorge through August 15th. That may mean augmenting the native flows in the river at a certain rate (cfs) per day and not trying to maintain a certain flow target at Wellsville, which would potentially deplete available water augmentation prior to the end of July. 

We simply cannot set a target flow rate for the July 1 – August 15th time period like we have done in certain years in the past due to the fact that there remains too many variables to consider. These variables include the following: what will native flows be at the end of June, how much rain might we receive this summer, where will it rain, how hot might it get this summer, how much water might the Bureau of Reclamation be able to store in Twin Lakes between now and June 13th, how long will run-off continue, how much yield will various water providers get this spring and therefore how much water might they be willing to move from upper reservoirs to lower reservoirs, what will the water temperature be at various times in various locations this summer and what might those effects have on the fishery, and the list goes on.

The bottom line is that I know this is not good news. The only solace I offer is that (1) The Arkansas River is the only river in the State of Colorado that has a VFMP to assist with recreational flows even in years like this and (2) everyone connected with the VFMP will do our very best to augment flows to whatever level we can given the circumstances we will face.


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## Blade&Shaft (May 23, 2009)

ouch


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## xena13 (Mar 21, 2007)

Right, but thanks for keeping us informed.


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## RockyMt.Razorback (Apr 19, 2012)

Wow sounds like a terrible year to guide on the Ark, For the last 6 years I guided on the Ark and at these same mentioned water levels in late august and September I have waited hours at sunshine falls in the gorge just waiting for a turn to go. I would hate to have to deal with that shit all summer long but since it looks like we are anyone know the protocol for private boaters and kayakers when there is a long wait for commercial boats, do they have to wait too or do they get to jump to the front of the line? Thanks for all the info AHRA I hope you keep us updated on this summers situation.


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## Jensjustduckie (Jun 29, 2007)

Whether in a kayak or a raft the commercials have never let us go ahead and if we did get ahead of them and didn't paddle like a$$holes they literally ran us over.

Commies have a schedule to keep - they don't get paid hourly, it's best not to get in their way.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Thank you for providing the boating public with the latest information on flow expectations. It is appreciated.


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