# Run off on the Middle Fork of the Salmon.



## reuben (Mar 27, 2011)

How long does it take for a river such as the middle fork of the Salmon to come up after the mountian tempetures maintain above freezing tempetures? The reason for this question is our June 10 trip is subject to high water levels.


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## lmaciag (Oct 10, 2003)

Check this tread where someone was asking about a launch two days before you: http://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f11/mfs-june-8th-launch-36017.html

It is going to be BIG! Salmon basin is at 138% (ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/id_swepctnormal_update.pdf) and the Banner SWE is at 140%


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## Avatard (Apr 29, 2011)

Last year our launch was on the 12th. All signs were pointing to 4' until the freak rainstorm a week before launch combined with snowmelt to create 8+ historical highs around that time. By the 12th I think it was in 5-6' range but I had cancelled in favor of another river out of concern for members of the group. Thank god we were not launching 10 days earlier.


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

I say 2 weeks of "good" weather 60s or 1 week in the 70's or a couple days in the 80s and the river will take off. 

Ok, why don't you just drive over the hill to the SF? Take a dip at molly and see what the rivers do. They are on the same time frame as far as melt goes.


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## calendar16 (Mar 8, 2007)

hoping for "moderate" flows for a June 17th launch! I have prepared myself to be scared by the level leading up to June 17th but hopefully by the 17th it is receding.


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

calendar16 said:


> hoping for "moderate" flows for a June 17th launch! I have prepared myself to be scared by the level leading up to June 17th but hopefully by the 17th it is receding.


Thats funny that you think the water will be on its way down June 17th! We are atleast a month behind the melt right now. I have a June 27 put in with a number of experienced boaters and we are hoping for under 6' but realisticlly we are expecting not to put in due to high water..


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## calendar16 (Mar 8, 2007)

IDfloater,

Let's just say I am wishful thinking...I really do not like the idea of having to cancel, although who does! 

As you mention above if there are a few days of 80's it could go off so if we have a hot second half of may and early June couldn't it potentially be possible to have a "manageable" level by June 17?

I sure do hope so!


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

calendar16 said:


> IDfloater,
> 
> Let's just say I am wishful thinking...I really do not like the idea of having to cancel, although who does!
> 
> ...


Me too! I'm feeling 90 degree days coming soon. just a feeling


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

I looked back through some historical records for SWE on Banner summit and we have had several years with high 20's and low 30's swe on May 1st, without resulting suicidal runoffs. Getting warmer and staying warmer supposably. 

You should be game on on the 10th.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

38 degrees at 4 am on Banner Summit. We will see a big spike this evening.

SNOTEL Data Report - All Readings per Day


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## skiersteve3 (Apr 29, 2011)

idahofloater said:


> Thats funny that you think the water will be on its way down June 17th! We are atleast a month behind the melt right now. I have a June 27 put in with a number of experienced boaters and we are hoping for under 6' but realisticlly we are expecting not to put in due to high water..


If I had a June 27th permit I'd be feeling really really good about my trip right now. I would guess right around 4.5 feet, definitely below 5.5 feet.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

idahofloater said:


> Thats funny that you think the water will be on its way down June 17th! We are atleast a month behind the melt right now. I have a June 27 put in with a number of experienced boaters and we are hoping for under 6' but realisticlly we are expecting not to put in due to high water..


Yeah man you got no worries. I can't imagine a scenario where it will be six feet on June 27th. We are ahead of the last couple of years and there is enough high elevation snow to make for a large peak, but there is too much low and mid elevation snow gone to sustain a large flow for an extended period of time. 

I looked at SWEs going back for 20-25 years or so and we have had 8 or 9 years with near the same snow load on May 1st. Only a few of those years produced June peaks with only one in mid June. 

I would have to check but in 92?? I think was the only year that was close to six feet of flow at the end of June. And that was a very wet year if I remember right. At the guide house where I worked I remember my stuff never being dry. What a stink. 

Like my weatherman buddy says. "Paid to be wrong half the time since 1989."


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## dport (May 10, 2006)

idahofloater said:


> Thats funny that you think the water will be on its way down June 17th! We are atleast a month behind the melt right now. I have a June 27 put in with a number of experienced boaters and we are hoping for under 6' but realisticlly we are expecting not to put in due to high water..


 PLEASE, let me know when you are going to cancel!


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## Sidnye (Dec 9, 2003)

*Hard to predict mid june levels----some of us are still in ski mode*

Brundage is still open weekends till may 15 and rumor is it'll be open thru memorial day if there is still interest (ie, still selling enough day passes)--went last weekend and had mid winter conditions with 130+inches on top.
heading up tommorrow and forcast is for snow on top (if it stays cold enough)

There is a lot of snow in the high country----this will be an epic water year for idaho.

My guess is late june lanches will be below 6'---early june---who knows.
all bets are off if warm wet weather.


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

Yeah man you got no worries. I can't imagine a scenario where it will be six feet on June 27th. We are ahead of the last couple of years and there is enough high elevation snow to make for a large peak, but there is too much low and mid elevation snow gone to sustain a large flow for an extended period of time. 

I like your thinking here! Hope your right.


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

carvedog said:


> Yeah man you got no worries. I can't imagine a scenario where it will be six feet on June 27th. We are ahead of the last couple of years and there is enough high elevation snow to make for a large peak, but there is too much low and mid elevation snow gone to sustain a large flow for an extended period of time.
> 
> I looked at SWEs going back for 20-25 years or so and we have had 8 or 9 years with near the same snow load on May 1st. Only a few of those years produced June peaks with only one in mid June.
> 
> ...


Cravedog, If your still out there, What are your thoughts on the MFS run off now??? a recient pow check shows 230% and no warm weather yet..


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

idahofloater said:


> Cravedog, If your still out there, What are your thoughts on the MFS run off now??? a recient pow check shows 230% and no warm weather yet..


My thoughts are that I should get out of the predicting business. I had a few lucky years in there and now I am getting my ass whipped. 

Regularly.

Three different weather reports call for highs in the high 70s this weekend. In Stanley. That kind of temp can bring on a good flush. Let's hope so.

I still don't think it will be six feet end of June. For just a random guess ( there is no calculation involved) I am saying 4.5 and it will be perfect for you. 

so yesterday I got called the whittle hound and today I am the Cravedog. I like it.

Also not sure where you got the 230% and a month behind. I show about 10 -14 days behind 2009. Which was a similar year. As for percentages: I have seen 135 to 155 for the Salmon river drainages but nothing really higher than that.


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## jrice345 (Jan 11, 2011)

Snotel SWE is showing 240% for the Salmon Basin and for Banner.


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## Wadeinthewater (Mar 22, 2009)

jrice345 said:


> Snotel SWE is showing 240% for the Salmon Basin and for Banner.


ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/id.txt


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## Kendarflugen (Jan 31, 2006)

Wadeinthewater said:


> ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/id.txt


So, snow water equivalent is at 240% of average for Salmon Basin & Banner. That's valid.


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## idahofloater (Feb 23, 2011)

carvedog said:


> My thoughts are that I should get out of the predicting business. I had a few lucky years in there and now I am getting my ass whipped.
> 
> Regularly.
> 
> ...


the 230 came from snotel but was a typo. Should be 240% SWE. As for a month behind, thats just based on timelines from pass put ins. Usually we start to see some run off durring spring break or we can start planting tomatos med april. But this year, all the ski hills had more snow coming at closing time. (Spring break). We are totally getting April weather right now. So thats where I come up with the "month behind." 

So, now I get to put my foot in my mouth so you can call me out later.

Warmer weather is coming on June 15. By the 20th the river is gona be 8' and its gona hover above 6' all the way to the 4th of July. Its never gona go really big. "A long cool fat run off coming." 



Thanks


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## ridecats (Aug 8, 2009)

What do people think about rafting this river at 6 1/2 or 7 feet?


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## wildh2onriver (Jul 21, 2009)

ridecats said:


> What do people think about rafting this river at 6 1/2 or 7 feet?


It's fun, fast and offers sneak routes. Wave trains are large and eddies almost non-existent until Dolly Lake.

Rig for flip, dress for swim, as they say. I wouldn't hesitate to run it at those levels with the right group and the right skill/experience.


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## GoodTimes (Mar 9, 2006)

wildh2onriver said:


> It's fun, fast and offers sneak routes. Wave trains are large and eddies almost non-existent until Dolly Lake.
> 
> Rig for flip, dress for swim, as they say. I wouldn't hesitate to run it at those levels with the right group and the right skill/experience.


Agreed....if you have the right crew. The sneak at Velvet appears above 6.5'....the rest is big wave trains and fairly obvious "don't go there" routes with ample time and space to miss. Crew essential.


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## ridecats (Aug 8, 2009)

I just saw the most recent 1-week forecast. A week from now, the prediction is 6.99 feet and rising. I've got the Matt Leidecker guidebook and he lists 5-7 feet as high water and over 7 as "extreme water," above its bank.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

ridecats said:


> I just saw the most recent 1-week forecast. A week from now, the prediction is 6.99 feet and rising. I've got the Matt Leidecker guidebook and he lists 5-7 feet as high water and over 7 as "extreme water," above its bank.


The NOAA 'forecast' is complete shit and I wouldn't trust it at all. A stopped clock is still right twice a day. Do not base your floating decisions for the MF on NOAA.


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## abron (Nov 19, 2004)

So this seems to bode well for at least decent flow in August. I got invited on a MF trip launching on 8/16. we have been contemplating flying in gear and all those issues for low water, but this is looking as hopeful as can be for at least a decent low level in August. I am pumped!!!! warm weather and possibly even water...!! (and I just traded up to 2011 JK Superhero, so I got my MF boat... :mrgreen: :mrgreen 
whats the word for august? as a rough approximation of course... 
thanks, Abe


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## lhowemt (Apr 5, 2007)

carvedog said:


> The NOAA 'forecast' is complete shit and I wouldn't trust it at all. A stopped clock is still right twice a day. Do not base your floating decisions for the MF on NOAA.


CD, our entire neighborhood is counting on your theory. As they project it is going to flood (again this year) and get as high as '97. I've really become aware over the past week and a half how much the river projections are high. Although once on the Lochsa it was very low, but typically they are high. Especially with high water and boater safety (IMO) and flooding potential to homes, they are going to give you the forecast if all of the river rising things happen. For example, it's supposed to rain a bunch Tue/Wed, but they say the models aren't clear, so they're projecting the rain everywhere, and the river forecast reflects that. Crossing my fingers Western MT doesn't see much rain in the next 3-4 days.

Abe, I'm doing a late Aug trip, and one of the guys on the trip has a ton of low water MF trips. He's confident it will be over 2', maybe 2.2. But time will tell.


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## slamkal (Apr 8, 2009)

abron said:


> So this seems to bode well for at least decent flow in August. I got invited on a MF trip launching on 8/16. we have been contemplating flying in gear and all those issues for low water, but this is looking as hopeful as can be for at least a decent low level in August. I am pumped!!!! warm weather and possibly even water...!! (and I just traded up to 2011 JK Superhero, so I got my MF boat... :mrgreen: :mrgreen
> whats the word for august? as a rough approximation of course...
> thanks, Abe


if you are lucky it will be 2'. A lot can change between now and then, a hot summer can melt the snow by then. If less than 2' you will probably want to fly in at least some of your gear (did I mean "Beer"?) and obviously still pack light


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## abron (Nov 19, 2004)

I'll take lucky...:mrgreen: and pack light. gots to seeing as how i am a parasitical kayaker...errr, i mean safetyboter...! gonna have to compensate someone well for carrying my crap. and i will happily take turns rowing.... 100 miles is a long way in tupperware...


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## lhowemt (Apr 5, 2007)

slamkal said:


> if you are lucky it will be 2'. A lot can change between now and then, a hot summer can melt the snow by then. If less than 2' you will probably want to fly in at least some of your gear (did I mean "Beer"?) and obviously still pack light



Have you noticed the weather in this area at all? We're still in Sprinter, spring and winter. Although this past weekend was finally warm (sun, 80, which was the first time this year, and I mean it's been cold and rainy not just sunny and 70). And the forecasts are for continued cool wet weather. Bad for our neighborhood flooding, good for long slow runoff. Maybe we'll get spring by July.


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## Remix79 (Apr 17, 2011)

Just go off the top at any flow. It is a beautiful place not to be missed.
I say the bigger the raft the better, 18ft boats sit alot h8igher in the water than 14ft boats with the same amount of gear. If it's at 2ft you will be styling.

As for near 7ft, have a solid crew of rafters and kayakers in the water to help if the shit hits the fan. Watch out for Murphs Hole.


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