# Five Rivers That Will Rage This Spring



## will rawstron (May 20, 2004)

1. The Colorado - Gore Canyon will be a deranged frothy chocolate mess more similar to a sea than a river. 
2. The Eagle - If you've never hit the Dowd at peak, or Vail to Avon its a wild big water ride. Little boat, big waves.
3. Homestake/ Gilman - concerned about fitting under the Gilman Railroad bridges? You know its on! 
4. The W Fork Clear Creek / Woody Creek - long manmade slide and waterfalls. Coors Falls, Z Gorge - scary when its cranking. 
5. Royal Gorge on the Ark - Only done it once, wasn't big. This year though.....
Getting psyched for a big water summer. Thank you Ullr!


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## marko (Feb 25, 2004)

And, we might also see Big Sur come in!!!

The Royal Gorge is soooo much fun at high water. The surf is amazing!


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## thatguy (Nov 9, 2003)

What's Gore like at high water? Is it manageable or certain death?


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## will rawstron (May 20, 2004)

Only been in there a touch above 2500. It was rad. 15'-20 foot waves. did it again a few days after discovering how fun it is. Very large from a ww standpoint, more like being in S. America and kayaking than the usual CO scene. Will go in higher this year if the river gods permit.


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## JRO (Jan 10, 2006)

Every river will be nuts!


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## Delbert Grady (Oct 13, 2005)

Ok, here's a few more...

1. Encampment bigger is better on this one 

2. Upper Blue this one doesn't get a lot of water very often and with Lake Dillon still nearly full we can hope for a couple thousand in it this spring

3. Yampa Wanna see god at Cross Mountain Gorge?


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## badkins (Oct 30, 2003)

maybe we should start a betting pool, peak flow Colorado River near Kremmling (gauge is right before the first rapid in Gore canyon...) My guess is going to be 6 grand :twisted:


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## Schizzle (Mar 26, 2004)

I took a WW rescue class from a CKS guy (Jim somthing I think?) who said he did Gore at ~10,000. WOW! I would want no part of that adventure. . .but it would be cool to take sloooow amtrak and see it.


Here's my new favorite snow-water report:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/snow_rpt.pl?state=colorado

Click on the green BASS link on the chart for the month-year you want.


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## Jiberish (Oct 20, 2003)

we should do a Five people who will Rage this year....haha... Just kiddin....Looks like an awesome season is lined up. Im lining up my trips out there already! Can't wait to be out west ( and that means past the front range...) ouch....
Ben


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## Mut (Dec 2, 2004)

I have seen video of Jamie Simon runnign gore at 12,000(i think). It was very high water. She went into Gore and when she came out she did not have a helmet on. I'm not posotive about the flow but it was huge.


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## yetigonecrazy (May 23, 2005)

the area around cb has been quietly collecting a good amount of snow. look for all the upper gunny areas to be running good. same with the north fork gunny runs. lake fork basin has been missed a bunch this year, and the long term forecast doesnt look good for the Juans. yampa is going to be insane for sure. anyone want to take bets on what cross mtn tops out at


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## GAtoCSU (Apr 18, 2005)

Running water at that level is all about knowing where the big ass holes are and avoiding and/or plugging them with a vengence. I've run some really big shit at high cfs and it's all the same. Avoid the shit that will kill anything and hope that your technique and skill will bring you through the really hard/crazy shit. I hop I still have the balls to fire up the big water shit. Big water is a whole different thing than big creeks. I almost drowned last year on a river that was at 40k cfs that normally runs at 250cfs. It was sketch none the less.

Scott


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## LoopDog (Apr 13, 2004)

You peeps better start getting good cardio now, lots of keepers this season. I can't wait to see Bear Creek at 800!


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## GAtoCSU (Apr 18, 2005)

Shoulda seen the big boy that tried to drown me last year. The river normally is class 3-4 @ 400 cfs. It was 40,000 cfs.

Scott


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## wsuboater (Aug 2, 2005)

If you guys wanna train for big water just come out here to Idaho! A few runs down the N. Fork of the Payette will have you ready to fire it up! Hope you guys in Colorado have a sweet season!


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## flounderbuoy (Sep 18, 2004)

lets see some of that footage of running gore at 12,000! i want to see what that would look like, even better i want to see what it would look like with someone running the shit.


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## cecil (May 30, 2005)

for all you FR's out there..

Loveland has had 400 inches of snowfall so far and basin wide snow pack is at 177%. Clear Creek > 1000CFS?


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## ACC (Oct 30, 2003)

rigor mortis is gonna get mean this year... :twisted: 

<<<anti-jinx>>>


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## Cutch (Nov 4, 2003)

Clear Creek gets over 1000 a lot. Over 10, that would be something.


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## jmack (Jun 3, 2004)

According to the USGS site, Clear Creek peaks at 1000cfs or more in 53% of years, so its about damn time- Peak Streamflow for Colorado, USGS 06719505, Clear Creek at Golden, at http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/co/nwis/peak?site_no=06719505&agency_cd=USGS&format=html.


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## Geezer (Oct 14, 2003)

This will all mean one thing. 

A shitload of lost paddle and lost boat posts on the Buzz this spring. :wink: :wink: :wink:


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## El Flaco (Nov 5, 2003)

Man, those totals from down south (San Juans) are dismal. I talked to an old neighbor of mine in Durango who plows roads up on Missionary Ridge, and he said he's plowed once this year- a little 7" storm. 

My heart goes out to all you Animas boaters- see you all up north this year.


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## WhiteLightning (Apr 21, 2004)

Shoshone/Barrel Springs at 15k maybe?


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## mountainbuns (Feb 19, 2004)

Have a good year y'all! And if you get tired of big water in CO come to ID where an average year is big and we're looking way above average (as is WA and OR is going off the charts)  

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html


-claire


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## FLOWTORCH (Mar 5, 2004)

Geezer, ya got that right, remember a couple few years ago when the Poudre got to like 5 or 5.5ft. for like a day. That was hysterical, about every other post was someone missing something. My friend scored an AT paddle......that reminds me.......ya'll might wanna write your names on your paddles and boats this year.....especially you newb's......no, not you newby....nevermind, that goes for you too.  

But i'm not gonna say which river or creek is goin off this year, dont wanna jinx anything.......i'm surprised nobody's jumped all over you guys yet for startin this thread.


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## paddlebizzle (Oct 15, 2003)

What happens to the Numbers? I know the basin snowpack there is ideal for a peak year, but the Ark is dam controlled. Will the #'s go off, or will it just be an extended season of flows similar to dam-release?


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

I am looking for some good Class IV-IV+ rivers/creeks that will be huge this year.....any thoughts....

I want to hit:

Castle Creek into Slaughterhouse
Fryingpan
*Encampment*
Tenmile
Cebolla??? Anyone run this at high water
*Grape*
N. Fork Poudre


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## Delbert Grady (Oct 13, 2005)

I can guarantee that Grape creek will not run this year, bet my life on it!


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## Yonder_River (Feb 6, 2004)

jonny water said:


> I am looking for some good Class IV-IV+ rivers/creeks that will be huge this year.....any thoughts....
> 
> I want to hit:
> 
> ...


If you have extra time to make a two day trip up to the Encampment (something that might be hard if everything is going off around here), you won't be dissapointed. We ran it at medium water last year and it was a blast. I would recommend doing it at least twice if you make it out there. I would imagine it could hold at close to 2,000 cfs for awhile which would make it continuous big water IV+ for about 5 miles starting at Damnation Alley. Nothing super technical, but not many breaks in the action either. Swimming would suck.


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## sj (Aug 13, 2004)

1000 in CC is not that big. I don't know what 177% translates to. But if memory serves I ran it in the 2500 to 3000 range in the mid 90's. Helped with a body recovery of a rafter in that range also. Not inclined to look that hard but i am sure someone here could make a chart(powerpoint geeks unite of flow and snow pack in the 94, 95, 96 range. Maybe get an idea of what might happen. sj


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

SJ-

Already been done.....see jmack's post above and hit graph. According to the last 30 years of data, Clear Creek (at Golden) has never peaked over 2400 cfs.


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## yetigonecrazy (May 23, 2005)

Cebolla probably wont go very big or go much this year. snowpack in that area isnt too good right now....


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## Phillips (Feb 19, 2004)

Yeah CC should definately be way over 1000. Probrably more like 2200. I've done Black rock at 1200 and that was plenty of fun and then some.


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## benpetri (Jul 2, 2004)

Most of those historic peak flows that you get off the guages are averaged over the entire day, so it ignores any daily flow fluctuation. The actual peak flows are probably higher.

I'll wager 2000 for peak in golden this year.


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## sj (Aug 13, 2004)

Must of been june 95 and between 2000 and 2500. any way in the mid 90's it was above 1000 A fair amont. Some guy put in below Rigor in a 14ft bucket boat with an oar frame. The passanger got to shore but the oarsman did'nt mid forties and dead. The SAR guy was going on about record flows and what not. Helped the Jefco deputy try to identify the guy. Lots of dope in his ammo can was embarrased for the dead guy. Obviously a day that sticks out in my memory. 

What i was really looking for tho is snowpack percentage corolation to peak flow. ie 100% snowpack eqauals 950 cfs and so forth. Cuz 177% if it holds would i think lead to considerably more than 1000. 

Also there was a notation on 95 saying peak daily average. which could mean it was higher than 2300 in the early evening. Of course it's even more possible the SAR guy was exagerating to make a point. Cuz as i try to remember more it was the guy that got the body that was going on and on about the flow. sj


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## jeffro (Oct 13, 2003)

I don't think you could correlate % snowpack to peak flows very easily. How fast it melts has a lot to say in what the peak flow is.


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## sj (Aug 13, 2004)

Correct Jeffro but it is a place to start


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## thatguy (Nov 9, 2003)

If you look at the peak flows section of the USGS site, the raw numbers (not just percentages) of the snotel stations in the daily report, and the historical information on the snotel sites here:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/state-site.pl?state=CO&report=waterequivtablehist
you can figure out the correlation between peak flows and snow amounts. Disclaimer: this is very addicting and will take up a lot of your time in satisfying your curiosities and will cause chronic dreaming of big water, waterfalls, etc. Temperature patterns have a lot to do with peak flows as well. Sudden increase in temps early in the season = big peak while gradual increase in temps = gradual increase of flows and lower peak which must be taken into consideration when looking at past peak flows. Wow, I have too much time on my hands.

And for paddlebizzle, the ark is only somewhat dam controlled. The flow from lake creek runs into twin lakes before it hits the ark and that is where late season flows come from. When lake creek hits 4000 cfs next may/june, they'd better release some of it or it will spill over the dam. There is substantial flow that comes from the unregulated main branch of the ark that comes from climax-leadville on down. Bottom line, the numbers and the rest of the ark will be large, 4000 cfs + by my guess.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

*correlation*

I put together a correlation based on the USGS daily peak data and the snowpack % of average Snotel data from the two links in this thread. I used 1997 through 2005, as the basin snowpack averages were not available before 1997. I ended up taking a few obvious outlyers for high peaks (probably heat wave?), and the rest of the data had a 99% R squared, meaning the data fit the curve well. The equation is Peak Rate in CFS (daily average peak rate) = snowpack % of average (max number from snotel monthly basin average) * 7.69.

If clear creek stays at 171% of average, this would mean a peak rate of 1315 cfs. If the snowpack hits 200% with good spring snows, the peak would be 1538 cfs. If a big heat wave comes and melts it all at once, I would add 30-50% to the peak rate. 

The big question is how much more snow will come. It seems that in big snow years, the snowpack increases in % in the spring. So I will take my stab at things, and guess 1500 cfs for clear creek's peak at golden. 

I don't know how to post the graphs and spreadsheets on the buzz, but if anyone wants to see it, email me at [email protected]


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Also, in reply to comments of a poor correlation due to heat and fast run-off. I totally agree. It is clear though that there is a pretty good correlation for the several years that I looked at. The fit that I used was a simple linear equation that goes through the axis at zero, meaning 0 snow = 0 flow, and this doesn't seem to make too much difference. 

What I can help but thinking is that the geek in me wants to see this data for all basins, but I don't have the time or patience to do it for every basin. I know that there is some river forecast site, but I don't recall where, and I have no idea how they predict. I am sure someone, somewhere is predicting peak flows etc. A lot of highway, bridge, and flooded home $$$ depend on it.


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## sj (Aug 13, 2004)

Thanks DSP. You are the man(or not. I was gonna do it this evening. sj


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## badkins (Oct 30, 2003)

In CRC2/Clear Creek/Black Rock there is a photo of the narrows at 3 grand... what year was that?


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

In 1929, the flow reached nearly 6000 cfs. Could the pic be from a time in the 60's? Otherwise, as pointed out before, the peak values are sometimes averaged over the entire day instead of the exact peak.

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/peak/?site_no=06719500


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## marko (Feb 25, 2004)

Paddlebizzle,

The Ark is free flowing from the Freemont Pass area, and the surrounding Leadville areas. I believe that these areas are doing very well with snow pack!

As for Lake Creek: They release all natural flows, which means any free flow that comes into Twin Lakes will leave into the Ark. The only thing they don't release is the water they steal from Aspen. I believe this is also true for the Clear Creek Res.

This means that Pine Creek, #'s, Narrows, and the NEW BV playpark will go off. For those who don't know: Pine Creek is actually easier above 3000CFS, and it is sooooooooooo much fun!!! Everything is a flush, except for a couple of random ledgy-holes. :lol: And, all you need is a playboat; and all you want is a playboat, because the play is *incredible* #1.5 at 3000CFS is one of the best surf waves in all of CO.

Damn...now I am all fired up, and have no place to boat.

But, let's just hope that CO doesn't have a warm spring and blow this big load prematurely...sorry I had to be the one to say it.


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## paddlebizzle (Oct 15, 2003)

What are thoughts on the Eagle? I think last spring it peaked just under 3k (Dowd Chute hit maybe 8 on the gauge?). I won't go near the chute, but the Eagle below it was awesome. 

Any chance the Eagle could top 4,000 or the Chute top 10 feet? 

A few years back I watched Ludden and Hobie in the Chute at 10 feet and it was surreal.


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## ENDOMADNESS (Jun 21, 2005)

*Eagle*

The Eagle will definitely get to 10' this year (one mans opnion). Amazing how fast people travel in there at 10 feet and no boat. Watched 2 consecutive rafts flip around Tysons...major mayhem. The hardest part will be the big lateral (newly formed 3 years ago) just before Tysons.


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## merry prankster (Mar 22, 2004)

DSP -- The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center starts issuing peak flow forecast for the basin beginning in March. We use two tools -- one uses regressed equations against snow pack values, temperature departures etc. These generally have 30 years of corralative data. Our other option is to use one of the tools within NWSRFS that essentially applies 30 years of potential weather to determine peak flow exceedence probabilities. These are published at www.cbrfc.noaa.gov.

Someone else mentioned the difference between mean-daily flow and instantaneoud peak. It can varies much more when rain induced peaks are in th picture (desert rivers). The nautre of the melt tends to dampen thigns a bit more.

Finally, whoever started this thread -- I hope you don;t jinx us all. I am going to go sacrifice some adult beverages for the cause.


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## WhiteLightning (Apr 21, 2004)

What level do bridge strainers form on the Eagle? I am thinking 4000-5000 would probably be pretty close at Trestle.


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

What about Cheesman Canyon? Any educated guesses on whether it will go this year?


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## cayo (Mar 20, 2005)

You guys can run your huge stuff,I'll be looking at all the little creeks that always looked promising but never had enough water.Things could get interesting on well known runs as a lot of wood is gonna move around,and there will be some landslides.
I am with Paddlebizzle one run I love high is the Eagle below Dowds,the more the merrier!
What's the overall prognosis for the Front Range,as good as Clear Creek?Talk all the smack you want ,there's a ton of good IV /V boating between the CLP and the NFSP.
Out of curiosity what is the highest anyones seen Waterton or Foxton,seems like they used to run better in the late 90's?


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## paddlebizzle (Oct 15, 2003)

> What level do bridge strainers form on the Eagle? I am thinking 4000-5000 would probably be pretty close at Trestle.


Dempsey - that Trestle bridge is pretty high. I think we would be at emergency flooding stage for that bridge to create a strainer. However, a good argument could come from guessing how much water it would take to back up behind the railroad bridge on Gore Creek right before the confluence. Can you imagine???

Cayo - any Class III creeks you can think of that might run this year?


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## cayo (Mar 20, 2005)

Front Range class 3 that rarely run,off the top of my head;Lair of the Bear,the folks at Alpenglow told me long time ago is good III-IV when its crankin lots ...wood,Lwr. N FK CLP according to CRC,Clear Creek thru Idaho Spgs. used to be standard on the Front Range rookie circuit II-III better when its raging,most of 11 mile canyon,really high water on the town run of the So.Platte can be fun.
I was thinking more of obscure stuff like Llittle Thompson,lower lefthand,W,FK.Clear crk,N.FK.Clear Crk,SO.FK.CLP,UPR. Williams fk.'James CRK.,someone mentined Buckhorn once,Middle fk.St.Vrain,etc.
Fall river near Estes.


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## matts (Oct 29, 2003)

i think it was 3 years ago when the eagle was at 11 feet. hobie, struth, dan mitchell, and i got on it... 3 creekboats and 1 kingpin - awesome! before that, in 97 it think, it got up to about 13 feet. my guess for this year... 14 feet. bitchin! can´t wait. big waves, the chute itself is over in about 20 secs, then a gem of a playwave comes in...mmmm

see ya´ll when i get back next week! 

matt


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## ENDOMADNESS (Jun 21, 2005)

Paddlebizz- the Gore Creek Trestle (at eagle confluence) i believe backs up around 8-9ft. Still alot of wood stuck in that bridge from a few years ago (years solomon listed above). Lots of other strainers along gore creek also (betty ford bridge, bunch of cascade bridges and the sewer pipes thru intermountain). gonna be fun!!


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## WhiteLightning (Apr 21, 2004)

The Gore Creek trestle will definately be a bridge strainer!

Does it really get that high at Betty's? Teva Mountain Games races will be bitchin', but the Vail play hole might wash out unless it stays really cool.

Jeff, I think last year one night in the raft I was able to touch the bottom of the Trestle bridge one day around memorial day.


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## paddlebizzle (Oct 15, 2003)

Dempsey:
I think the pipes in West Vail will definitely be COVERED, let alone be strainers. The railroad bridge at the confluence will definitely be a hazard.

As for other bridges on Gore Creek (golf course, Betty Ford, etc), I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

The creek would have to be at a critical flood stage (think - flooding Covered Bridge Coffee, Vail T-Shirt, Pepi's, etc. That would have to be an awful lot of water to create this scenario - like over 2000 cfs. Unless anyone has extra info, I don't remember Gore Creek ever getting above 1500 through Vail Village.

Am I far off? I just think it's a little unrealistic to expect that kind of volume.


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## pbowman (Feb 24, 2004)

*Trestle Rapid Bridge on Eagle River*

The Eagle County floodplain mapping study is public record, and is the basis for floodplain mapping along the Eagle River from Dotsero to approximately the FR station at the Dowd exit. From this report, the following flows are predicted at Wolcott:
50 year event: 5,700 cfs
100 year event: 6,170 cfs
500 year event: 7,060 cfs

These flows have a 2%, 1%, and 0.2% chance of occurring in any given year. Based on the floodplain model (which includes significant field survey detail around all bridges), the Trestle Bridge is predicted to be touched by the water surface at all three events noted above. I believe the survey around the Trestle Bridge was done before the rockslide in that area, so in fact the channel conveyance capacity has been decreased by the new rock(s) in the channel directly below the bridge. Therefore, it is a reasonable assumption that the water will rise to the bridge with even less flow than noted above.

Based on my experience last year with the rockslide in place, I ran Trestle at the near peak of the Eagle with a flow of 3,800 by my estimate (upstream gage at Avon does not account for added flow from Lake Creek). On that day, there was adequate room to get a kayak under the bridge and around the rock safely, but I think the rafts were starting to have trouble. I believe that the bridge will become impassable (less than 2' clearance between water and bridge) around 4,500 this year, and that water will be hitting the bridge at less than 5,500. These are my personal estimates, use with a grain of salt - luckily there is a good pool on river right immediately upstream of the bridge, so be ready to pull out there. 

The relatively tame Eagle picked up steam last year below Wolcott, so this year should be a hoot. later all.


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## Tim Kennedy (May 28, 2004)

*Let's see how the spring snow and melt goes.*

Let's not count our chickens before they hatch. 

At this point, we can at least breathe easy that we won't have another 2002.

As for how high you guys are claiming to have run Dowd Chute:

Matt, I think I gotta call you out this one. :wink: The top of the gauge at Dowd Chute is 9 feet. Once it gets around 7 or 7.5 feet, readings are inaccurate. The stick is located on upstream end of the piling. At high water levels, a pillow forms on the front of the piling and and the gauge sits in the cavity behind the pillow at the top of the eddy. Three years ago, the top of the gauge was still visible in the cavity. Taking the average between the top of the pillow and reading on the stick, the river was maybe 9.5 to 10 feet or so. I get a chuckle out of hearing that "so and so ran it at 14 feet" or "we ran it on a raft trip with Darrell in '95 at 12 feet". I think I was on it around peak a couple years ago and it was huge and fun. I dump-trucked at the bottom of Rodeo/Cliffside/River Run rapid on a trip (I had a writer in my boat from US News and Weekly Report. What a great day to have swimmers :roll: Mongo's never let me forget about that one.) But once we got to the Edward's mile, the river was almost kinda washed out. Even though the gauge didn't seem any higher than in '95 or '96, there was alot of water coming in through the tributaries below the Chute. I also did some peak flow runs in '95 and '96, great big water fun. We ran quite a few "Upper Eagle" trips that season. But I have to say I have never run it over 10 feet. I don't think it has ever gotten over "10 feet" in the last 15 years. If you get a chance, check out the photos at Billy's house of him and Darrell in the Chute in the summer of '84 or '85. That was definitely a high level. "14, 15, 16 feet" who knows? The friggin gauge is under water. The water is almost 3 feet from the railroad grade at the top of the Chute. There's a massive log in the river twenty yards ahead of Billy.

In '95 and '96 we had to stop running commercial trips for a few days on the Lower Eagle. We stopped putting in above Trestle at around 6 or 7 feet due to the low bridge and big holes at bottom of the rapid. We could put in at the BLM site below Trestle for a while. But the river got too high to get under the old double arch bridge below Interstate rapid. 

The trestle at the Gore Creek and Eagle confluence does become too low to float under in most years. The passage around the right side of it got clogged a couple of springs ago by the big log that took out the game fence. It could be interesting if the log jam creates somewhat of a dam there. There is a gap at the upstream end of that trestle, but more water flows into the downstream end where the log jam is. On an evening run through the Golf Course section of Gore Creek in '95 or '96, some guys did have to jump out of the raft to get under one or two of the golf cart bridges. Low duck in a kayak. We took out at Steven's Park in Intermountain. A few folks from Mongo's raft swam a hundred yards or so further downstream after he flipped in Black Bear Rapid above the takeout. 

Pine Creek over 5' on the old Scott's Bridge gauge is a blast. The "S-turn hole" is a crashing wave. But the holes at the top of PC and the ledges on the banks in triple drop are big. 

Clear Creek above 1000cfs is a great run. Stay out of the ledge hole in "Narrows" rapid.

Shoshone and Barrel Springs are a great big water run above 10,000cfs. Barrel Springs optional :wink: 

Solomon, sorry to call you out on the Buzz. I guess I got one coming from you (I hope it's not that Gore video). I haven't seen you in a while. Thanks for the DVD's. How was Ecuador?


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