# Isit time for a weighted Lottery for DINOSAUR NAT'L MONUMENT and the GREEN and YAMPA



## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Yeah, i think the weighted lottery is the fairest system. I also think having follow-up lotteries with notice is a better way to deal with unreserved or cancelled (with long term notice) permits. This idea that the average person can call M-F 9-noon is rather bogus. And expecting people to check rec.gov regularly to pick up cancellations is horrendous. 

GCNP hasn't always done things well but there basic weighted and follow-up lottery structure is fair.

Phillip


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## wildh2onriver (Jul 21, 2009)

A streamlined, weighted lottery across the board with all the lottery permitted rivers would seem to make sense. This current system is unfair to all of us who have entered the lotteries for many years and haven't drawn crap.

That would make too much sense.




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## Stiff N' Wett (Feb 18, 2010)

I think it's time we all find a new sport.


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## kengore (May 29, 2008)

The logistics of a weighted lottery would be a nightmare. How do you verify your previous losses to qualify? I didn't keep any receipts, did you? If I tried 6x for a Ladore permit should I get priority on a permit for the San Juan? If I tried 6x and lost, but I still got to run it each year on someone else's permit should I still get priority? Hey, I know a guy who has never been on a river trip, maybe he should get priority?

I'm also not sure if it works from a statistics analysis: If you have a 1:10,000 chance to win last year, then give all the looser's a boost you now have a 1:9,999 chance. Since all the looser's got the same advantage there is little change in the outcome. Yes, you could track each persons prior statistics then apply a weighted algorithm so each individual lottery entry had it's own calculated odds. Sounds a lot more complicated (and expensive) than drawing post cards out of a hat. 

It would be easier, and achieve your desired result to simply ban winners from entering for a few years. Does that sound fair?

A level lottery is the only fair way to do it. Why should a new boater be penalized over the more experienced? Each of us gets the same shot at a limited number of opportunities. Giving ANY persons special privilege would be unfair. 

I have never won a permit in over 10 years of trying, yet I usually get one or two trips in each year thanks cancellations or friends with more luck. I notice that those in favor of the weighted system are also experienced boaters with 7 or more years, so somehow never winning a lottery has not prevented them from boating either. It sucks to keep loosing but with the odds spread out among our friends I still get to go boating. In practice the lottery system seems to work.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

To your first question....I know GCNP tracks data and quality controls lotteries without the need for the proof you provided examples of. That said, I am not sure how rec.gov would be able to do so. The one caveat is also about trips down the river not winning, at least how GCNP does the weighted lottery. It would mean the agency would have to track rosters for the application process.

Its fair to disagree and there is no benefit for me to make statements against your perspective as we are all subjective here. My only observation would be that winning once increases odds of getting invites from others if you also invite people on your permits. So it becomes a double whammy for those who never win.

Fair is definitely a subjective term as our different perspectives have highlighted. To be honest I have come to accept that I may never get to see Lodore and Yampa ever and that my one time down the Middle Fork on a private may been the totality of my experience. Better for me to accept that reality than get attached to something largely unattainable, even if I continue to throw $6 at the lotteries. And to be "fair", I am more privileged than most in having down a volunteer trip down the Selway as "most" people will never float that stretch.

Phillip


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## Whetstone (May 17, 2013)

Perhaps you have seen this from the feds concerning 4 Rivers weighted lottery proposals: http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5441447.pdf


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## MrScamp (Mar 19, 2013)

I did very well last year by apply to shoulder season and pulled MS, Deso and Smith. It was 2nd year ever applying for permits. This year I got nothing. I feel that a slightly better chance next year would be appropriate. God knows it's appropriate for the OP. It's tough to get started when most folks you meet have entrenched groups they apply with. If you win you might make new "friends" but just applying doesn't always get you an invite when that group pulls something. 

I'd support a weighted lottery. To the OP you're just screwed (I'm sorry) but I don't see being able to track past losses like they did with the GC waiting list. If we put a weighted lottery in place though, maybe we can prevent your next 29 years of losses.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Whetstone said:


> Perhaps you have seen this from the feds concerning 4 Rivers weighted lottery proposals: http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5441447.pdf


That seems like a measured, thoughtful response to the reality of those permits. Not every river likely needs one as I know its relatively "easy" to float the Main and Deso because of the odds and length of season. On the other hand its really difficult to pull MFS, Selway, Lodore and Yampa permits.

Phillip


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## SKeen (Feb 23, 2009)

I have not yet applied for any hunting permits, but from what I hear it sounds like there is a well developed weighted lottery system that includes all units in Colorado. I wonder if this system could serve as a model or if all the hunters think it sucks too.


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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

Weighted lottery would be cool but it's not really that hard to get on most of these trips. Selway is probably the hardest but even that is simple if you pay for the snow machine ride. I've been invited on every other trip multiple times in the past 5 years without having a super tight permit group I apply with. Mix it up with the community, be a good boating partner on day trips and the rest will work itself out.


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## avondan (May 5, 2011)

Kengore- you are right on the money. Nothing more fair than equal chances of drawing a permit. Any time one group of applicants is favored (with points or something similar), by default another group is discriminated against. Points work against new boaters, or anyone who drops out of the initial group of applicants when there is high demand for permits. I'll take a random draw any day over points of any sort!


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## codycleve (Mar 26, 2012)

I think a weighted lotto is a terrible idea.. Like said before this is a system where there are just so many loosers it doesnt really help that much because they all also get a point ... yeah you might get a permit finally in lets say in 5 or ten years... Then to draw again you are really screwed because in ten years only three hundred or so a year have been knocked down while the other 8 or 9,000 now have ten times the odds you do.. think 15 or 20 years down the road.. when your kids might want to apply to the river the odds of them drawing would be terrible... well sorry imposible... you still have 6000 people left that havent drawn but have 20 prefrence points or 20 times the odds. and thats just the top tier... they would be behind 15 more years of applicants..


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