# La Noneya



## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

From our local paper this morning.. Conditions looking bleak so far.. Here in Salida, was sunny and 65 yesterday. Promise of an unknown amount of snow this weekend though..


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

Better than it looked a month ago, no? From bleak to simply poor.

Montana was around 90% end of Dec, down to ~80% end of Jan, but back to about 100% for end of Feb.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

It's about the same as it was a month ago, a little worse in some basins, and a little better in others, but it's still bleak. One of the biggest issues is how dry it was last year, I've read articles where they're saying 40 to 60% of the runoff that does happen is simply going to infiltrate into the ground instead of actually running off cuz we were so dry last year


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

Yeah, it's not great but it makes it look even worse comparing to last year's above-average snowpack.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Last year we had the same issue we do this year with infiltration, except this year it's going to be worse...


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

JWPowell tried to warn us.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Indeed he did, and many that have followed in his footsteps including Martin Litton and Edward Abbey!


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## jaffy (Feb 4, 2004)

Andy H. said:


> Yeah, it's not great but it makes it look even worse comparing to last year's above-average snowpack.


Have you blocked 2020 out of your memory already?  I think 2020 was a norma-lish year, but 2019 was great.


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

MNichols said:


> Indeed he did, and many that have followed in his footsteps including Martin Litton and Edward Abbey!


As did Marc Reisner (author of Cadillac Desert).

And Wallace Stegner's 'Beyond the 100th Meridian: John Wesley Powell and the Second Opening of the West" tells Powell's story and his warning probably better than Powell himself did!


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Good points, all of them!


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

That climate change is bad stuff for most of us river runners. We should all work to do something about it.

I watch this stuff pretty closely. More winter to come, about a month more until peak snowpack. This extended weekends storm will be interesting. Based on this one storm, it is a flip of a coin toss in Colorado. Keep your fingers crossed. And, based upon northern snowpack, I don't plan to pull out of a mid-July MFS or late August Main Salmon trip.


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## Idaho_ski_bum (Jun 22, 2018)

Idaho snowpack is below average, but H2O content is above. Warmer storms put a lot of water content into the low tide early season snow conditions.


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## Easy Tiger (Jun 22, 2016)

What's noneya?


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

I would respectfully refer you to the graph... Our snow pack is dismal


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

I'll take an 80% to 90% plus of median any year and feel okay about it. I wouldn't cancel any trips.

What you don't want is 80% of average year after year. Then that is called climate change. And that is where we are trending but not this year so far. We are not dismal yet. I can point out dismal years if you like.


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## Wallrat (Jan 19, 2021)

climbbd510 said:


> What's noneya?


Noneya gonna go boating cuz there's no water. (La Nina)


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

climbbd510 said:


> What's noneya?


Noneya bidness!


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## Easy Tiger (Jun 22, 2016)

MT4Runner said:


> Noneya bidness!


This is the correct answer. Thank you!


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

So what does he win? A Ford pinto? A beautifully restored third reich swizzle stick? Rosemary's baby?


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## Easy Tiger (Jun 22, 2016)

MNichols said:


> So what does he win? A Ford pinto? A beautifully restored third reich swizzle stick? Rosemary's baby?


That's noneya bidness 🤣


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)




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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

MNichols said:


> So what does he win? A Ford pinto? A beautifully restored third reich swizzle stick? Rosemary's baby?


I'll go with the Ford Pinto but only if it comes with a Nomex Suit.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Good choice! You'll need it lol


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## tpalka (Oct 31, 2003)

So, going back to Marshall's original post. Our local chapter of Trout Unlimited held a meeting on Wednesday and one of our speakers was Bob Hamel. Executive director of the rafting association, very knowledgeable about water issues, flows, and more. He made some very good points on the validity of that chart (posted by Marshall) and how the data they use might relate to the flows on the Arkansas. His points were more specific to the Arkansas, but hold true for anywhere I'd imagine. You can check out the meeting at 



, and Bob is the first speaker. Cheers,

Tom


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Nice Tom, thanks for sharing.. The only person that I know who is more knowledgeable about water issues than Bobby, would be Greg Felt, our now county commissioner in Chaffee county. It's funny, I took over the citizens task force from Greg, and after seven or eight years passed it on to Bobby... Small world, but in this case full of good people trying to do the right thing...


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## NoCo (Jul 21, 2009)

The nonsoon last summer sucked too


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

NoCo said:


> The nonsoon last summer sucked too


Yes sir, we're in for some slim times...


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

😭Our game changing storm has fizzled out it seems. Kinda looking "dismal".


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## NoCo (Jul 21, 2009)

MNichols said:


> Yes sir, we're in for some slim times...


This latest storm has me a bit optimistic at least for the Poudre. 55 inches predicted on Cameron pass. Heavy wet snow. River will probably be black though from all that burn.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

NoCo said:


> This latest storm has me a bit optimistic at least for the Poudre. 55 inches predicted on Cameron pass. Heavy wet snow. River will probably be black though from all that burn.


fingers crossed for you my friend, we have an inch in the ground here in beautiful downtown Howard Colorado, and it's still coming down... Like I said fingers crossed


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

The storm did not fizzle, it was delayed. Arkansas Basin is now 102% of median, up from 89% on 3/13. The N Platte and Platte are up to 98% and 100% respectively. (Top four graphs below.)

The 6-10 day outlook(below left side) is for a strong likelihood of below normal temps and and above average precipitation here in Colorado. Colder temps obviously will hold snowpack between storms and hopefully allow us to continue to improve conditions with above average accumulations.

The 8-14 day outlook(below right side) maintains the likelihood of below average temps thus preserving snowpack with gulf moisture likely pulling south. If by chance that moisture gets pulled north a bit we may get lucky again with continued above average precipitation. That 8-14 outlook can rarely be considered the rule, just general guidelines with the margins of probability capable of wiggling substantially.

The four graphs are from my daily river analysis posted here on MB. The outlooks are readily linked from that report.

(green=snowpack(SWE), blue=precipitation(WYTD)


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

Earlier in this thread there were discussions of recent years in the Arkansas Basin. Below is 2018 thru 2021. Mean peak in the Basin is not until April 4th. If the 6-10 and 8-14 day Outlooks pan out then the Basin snowpack will be above Median(green line), soil moisture will be much improved and early runoff should substantially improve upper basin reservoir content. Keep your fingers crossed.

I would categorize in laymen's terms the red shaded area as "dismal"(2018 for example).


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

With nearly two-thirds of the United States abnormally dry or worse, the government’s spring forecast offers little hope for relief, especially in the West where a devastating megadrought has taken root and worsened.

Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires, low levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell and damage to wheat crops.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official spring outlook Thursday sees an expanding drought with a drier than normal April, May and June for a large swath of the country from Louisiana to Oregon. including some areas hardest hit by the most severe drought. And nearly all of the continental United States is looking at warmer than normal spring, except for tiny parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska, which makes drought worse.

“We are predicting prolonged and widespread drought,” National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson said. “It’s definitely something we’re watching and very concerned about.”

NOAA expects the spring drought to hit 74 million people.

Several factors go into worsening drought, the agency said. A La Nina cooling of parts of the central Pacific continues to bring dry weather for much of the country, while in the Southwest heavy summer monsoon rains failed to materialize. Meteorologists also say the California megadrought is associated with long-term climate change.

Thursday’s national Drought Monitor shows almost 66% of the nation is in an abnormally dry condition, the highest mid-March level since 2002. And forecasters predict that will worsen, expanding in parts of Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, with small islands of relief in parts of the Great Lakes and New England.









Forecast shows nasty drought worsens for much of U.S.


Thursday's spring outlook is bad news for the West, which has been under a megadrought for more than 20 years.




www.pbs.org





Granted, this comes from an extremely questionable source, but it seems to be on parallel with what's happening


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

This morning in the Canon City Daily Discord

The snowpack in Colorado’s mountains has reached 93% of normal, federal survey data showed Tuesday — lagging slightly at the moment when cities and food growers decide whether water supplies will be sufficient for crops, cattle and a growing population.

While recent heavy snow bodes well, measured in relation to the norm between 1981 and 2010, federal forecasters on Tuesday also warned they’re expecting “below normal” water flows in streams and rivers once snow melts due to decades of mostly increasing aridity.

“Our soil is pretty dry, and current stream flows are low, something that’s going to play into snowpack runoff,” said Brian Domonkos, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Colorado Snow Survey supervisor.

“Traditionally, if we had a snowpack at this level with normal soil moisture and base stream flows, we’d see better runoff. But as dry as things are, stream flow and soils, we’re expecting below normal runoff in most if not all river basins,” Domonkos said.

“We get less bang for the buck from snowpack. From a drought standpoint, this snow accumulation we’ve received in March does not offset the drought,” he said. “And from fire perspective, has this snowpack taken us out of fire concerns? Absolutely not.”

Colorado’s northern and eastern river basins generally received heavier snow.

Snowpack in the closely-watched Colorado River Basin — 40 million people and growers across seven western states rely on it — was at 89% of the norm.

Southwestern Colorado faced the driest conditions with snowpack measured in the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river watersheds at 87% of normal.

The South Platte River watershed had 102% of normal snowpack, and the level was 111% of the norm along the upper Rio Grande River. Arkansas River watershed snowpack was at 110%. In northern Colorado, snowpack along the Yampa and White rivers was at 91% of the norm, and the North Platte and Laramie watersheds had 97% of normal.

Mountain snowpack serves as a natural slow-release source of water tapped by farmers, cattle ranchers and cities. Climate warming has been shrinking snowpack and decreasing runoff into streams. Scientists have projected a sharply reduced contribution of melting snow in the Colorado River Basin to water available for growing crops.

Worldwide, more than 2 billion people depend on water that begins as snow. Reduced water flows from snowmelt have complicated food production in California, western China, South America, Central Asia and southern Europe.

Colorado mountain snowpack traditionally has peaked between now and mid-April. Water providers focus on that level knowing that rising temperatures soon will melt the snow, sending water into streams and rivers.

Denver Water planners have found that climate warming increases the uncertainty of precipitation and stream flows. And utility officials are counting on an expansion of Gross Reservoir, west of Boulder, to store more water from northern mountains. This will make Denver more resilient, the officials say, as snow becomes less predictable.

Agriculture uses about 85% of Colorado’s water supplies. Denver residents typically use around 80 gallons a day per person on average for all indoor and outdoor purposes. Conservationists are pushing for increased efficiency toward a target of 40 gallons for indoor use.


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