# 2022 Middle Fork Permit "Reductions"



## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Same thing happening in GC. I fear the permit systems will be screwy with a lot less launches in the coming few years due to the china virus.. Sucks to be a permit seeker, but then on the MFS, it always sucks to be a permit seeker, much like GC..


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## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

I'm going to hold my May 27th MF permit a little tighter tonight and hope the snowpack/runoff/road/etc all line up somewhat decently for me.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

IDriverRunner said:


> I'm going to hold my May 27th MF permit a little tighter tonight and hope the snowpack/runoff/road/etc all line up somewhat decently for me.


Lucky dog....


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## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

MNichols said:


> Lucky dog....


Haha it was a combination of luck, speed, and timing. It was the latest preseason permit available when they went live back in October. 

8AM. Refresh, refresh, refresh.... CLICK!


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

MNichols said:


> Same thing happening in GC. I fear the permit systems will be screwy with a lot less launches in the coming few years due to the china virus.. Sucks to be a permit seeker, but then on the MFS, it always sucks to be a permit seeker, much like GC..


So I thought we were going to grow up and stop using racist comments!?? Come on Marshall grow up!


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## sarahkonamojo (May 20, 2004)

What? people from outside of the US, (foreigners!) are allowed to hold permits to run the sacred Middle Fork?! Another dismal lottery year.


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## Dangerfield (May 28, 2021)

DELETED


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

There is nothing when you’re filling out your permit request on wreck.gov asking what country you’re from.

I can’t imagine trying to organize a private trip from another country though and making it logistically viable for the size of the headache and the minimal cost savings. You would be limited in gear to what you could fit in your suitcase or wanted to ship which would also be cost prohibitive but at least you are still not doing a commercial trip I guess.


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## spencerhenry (Jun 21, 2004)

mkashzg said:


> So I thought we were going to grow up and stop using racist comments!?? Come on Marshall grow up!


What exactly is racist about what you have quoted?
The virus originated in China, that is not racist, it is a fact.


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## Rockgizmo (May 21, 2009)

Even though it hurts my lottery chances to win a permit. I think it’s awesome to see the FS work with private boaters allowing roll overs permits. We were fortunate enough to use the roll over permit to keep our Lodore trip going. Way better than putting up road blocks and stopping launches. 




Dangerfield said:


> There might not really be that many foreign permits issued but would be intersting to see a break down of who's/who that applied/won.


FS post lottery stats on their webpage. Here’s a the link to the page. https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/scnf/passes-permits/recreation/?cid=fsbdev3_029568


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

spencerhenry said:


> What exactly is racist about what you have quoted?
> The virus originated in China, that is not racist, it is a fact.


“Chinese” Virus is a Racist Take — Here’s Why
Calling COVID-19 a “Chinese Virus” or “Kung Flu” Is Racist

there is already too much diversity and hatred and that rhetoric is only adding to it.


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## Dangerfield (May 28, 2021)

DELETED


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

Dangerfield said:


> I know I am old, but what am I missing? Just trying to help folks out and not start a run-away train wreck. I don't want to go back into re-hab.


Trust me I’m doing my best to try and keep us from going down another rabbit hole! 🤪


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

I do not care if this get cut or not

but folks, please get a life

if all it takes to be called a racist is calling the china virus what it is
then
we all need to stop and chill out, life is way to short to be name calling over this stuff


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

What about all of the Asian people who have been assaulted in the last two years because ‘some’ people don’t understand that this is only a ‘supposed joke’?

It’s not funny and it’s not a proven fact and I know somebody who has been affected by this and I’m unwilling to tolerate it.

edit: if you do not understand why this is wrong you are part of the problem.


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## Dangerfield (May 28, 2021)

I give up. Adiós.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

sorry couldn’t resist..


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## Rafter Larry (Aug 10, 2021)

mkashzg said:


> “Chinese” Virus is a Racist Take — Here’s Why
> Calling COVID-19 a “Chinese Virus” or “Kung Flu” Is Racist
> 
> there is already too much diversity and hatred and that rhetoric is only adding to it.


Who gets to make the determination that something is racist? Is there a tribunal or is it someone from media matters? I honestly don’t see using a description of a location as automatically racist. So who gets to decide?


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## BenSlaughter (Jun 16, 2017)

Ok, I'll bite.
Even thought this shouldn't be in a discussion about river permits, you decided to go there.



mkashzg said:


> So I thought we were going to grow up and stop using racist comments!?? Come on Marshall grow up!


Mkashzg, you're the one who needs to grow up.

Covid 19 came from China. More than likely from a lab. 
Calling it the China virus is no more racist than aaaallllll the other diseases named after the places they were discovered...


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

BenSlaughter said:


> Ok, I'll bite.
> Even thought this shouldn't be in a discussion about river permits, you decided to go there.
> 
> 
> ...


Fuck them spaniards am I right lol


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

BenSlaughter said:


> Ok, I'll bite.
> Even thought this shouldn't be in a discussion about river permits, you decided to go there.


NO… Marshall McNichols had to go there with his unnecessary comment poking the stick today and I was only responding to that so you can thank him for all of this.

This all needs to stop.

I wonder if Dangerfield has any room on the bus?


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Most of you on this site are a little old to be spending all your time virtue signaling. You’re not changing the world or any minds that matter on this website, I can assure you.

The rollovers in 2022 are minimal (obviously) to 2021. I know the FS posts all these Stats for the 4 rivers but do they do similar for dinosaur etc? I know Ron did permit sheets years ago for DRE and plotted the data. Be interesting to see it now as the 4 rivers has shown a dramatic rise in applications over the past 5ish years.


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

mkashzg said:


> “Chinese” Virus is a Racist Take — Here’s Why
> Calling COVID-19 a “Chinese Virus” or “Kung Flu” Is Racist
> 
> there is already too much diversity and hatred and that rhetoric is only adding to it.




“That’s racist! And here’s some articles written by left wing academics that say so.”

It’s like a religion to you people

You really don’t see how this rhetoric is weaponized to serve a divide and conquer tactic?


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

mkashzg said:


> This all needs to stop.


I started nothing. 

I took you off ignore cause the thread wasn't making any sense. You need to stop.

You've got a bitch with me for some unknown reason, likely as you can't find anyone else on this site to pick apart. Whatever, I could care less, but appearing to be butt hurt over it just to cause a flame war, well that's trolling. You're no better than those that got put on "Time out" for doing that exact same thing.. By posting your opinions, which by the way have absolutely zero to do with the subject of the thread, you contributed nothing substantive to it by personally attacking me in a public forum.

As I’ve noted before, when some individuals feel insecure and threatened, they can feel more powerful by blaming and victimizing others. This bluster is superficial and shallow, and does nothing to change anything, other than to hijack a thread with ill intent. All of the sudden china virus is racist, but nobody ever stops to think about just how common and innocuous geographic names are for diseases.
Here are a few

Zika virus (a forest)
Guinea worm (a country)
Japanese encephalitis (a country)
West Nile virus (a river)
German measles (a country)
Spanish flu (a country)
Ebola (a river)
Marburg virus (a German city)
Lassa fever (a Nigerian town)

And disease names don’t have to come with a foreign flavor. Lyme disease is named for a town in Connecticut. Norovirus is named for Norwalk, Ohio. Rocky Mountain spotted fever! 

And then there is the issue of facts. The Spanish flu was most likely misnamed; we don't know where it came from. But we do know that the novel coronavirus now sweeping the world emerged from a city called Wuhan in central China. This isn't debatable, it's a fact. Whether it originated at the Novel Coronavirus Laboratory there is what's debatable, but it did originate in Wuhan China. Even the much lauded Fauci states it, but denies at length that he funded it's development with US funds.. He's one of your people, surely you believe him ?

You're just looking to pick a fight, hiding behind your moniker here, anonymously trolling me to see what sort of a reaction you'll get by being politically correct butt hurt. You really should get a life where the most important thing you do doesn't include trolling others on boating forums. 


Bootboy said:


> You really don’t see how this rhetoric is weaponized to serve a divide and conquer tactic?


Not only does he see it, he furthers it at every opportunity, 

Wasted enough time on responding to this inappropriate BS. Good day to you Sir.


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## 2tomcat2 (May 27, 2012)

OK, deep breath everyone....again, this forum is "River Access and Safety Alerts"....please, take other discussions to the Eddy, thank you


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

2tomcat2 said:


> OK, deep breath everyone....again, this forum is "River Access and Safety Alerts"....please, take other discussions to the Eddy, thank you


Ever the voice of reason 2tomcat2.. 

What I want to know, v***s or not, is how the MFS access system is run, that folks can apply for 25 years, yes even back when it was the 4 rivers lottery, and not draw a permit.. Demand back then wasn't nearly what wreck.gov has made it today, but still, on this particular part of the US, it appears to be highly inequitable in it's distribution?


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## BenSlaughter (Jun 16, 2017)

Perhaps there should be a discussion started about turning it into a weighted lottery. Which is a far more reasonable system.
I've applied for the Middle Fork 22 of the last 24 years. Have never won a permit. I've gotten several out of the cancellation pool, but last minute. I've run it alone a couple times, because it's tough to roust a crew on 1-2 days notice.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

BenSlaughter said:


> Perhaps there should be a discussion started about turning it into a weighted lottery. Which is a far more reasonable system.
> I've applied for the Middle Fork 22 of the last 24 years. Have never won a permit. I've gotten several out of the cancellation pool, but last minute. I've run it alone a couple times, because it's tough to roust a crew on 1-2 days notice.


Problem is, wreck.gov isn't set up for that, and very resistant to change.. The Federal agencies are mandated to use it, and the private corporation that owns and manages it, is raking in the bucks as it is, and thinks it's just fine the way it is. That's one thing that sets GCNP apart, and no, I'm not sure why they aren't on wreck.gov. Perhaps when Steve Sullivan retires..


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## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

BenSlaughter said:


> Perhaps there should be a discussion started about turning it into a weighted lottery. Which is a far more reasonable system.
> I've applied for the Middle Fork 22 of the last 24 years. Have never won a permit. I've gotten several out of the cancellation pool, but last minute. I've run it alone a couple times, because it's tough to roust a crew on 1-2 days notice.


Same experience here. No one in my immediate family has ever pulled a permit in the lottery, and we have been applying for decades. I've been fortunate enough to go many times only through friends, cancellations, or getting a permit outside of the lottery control season.

@BenSlaughter if you ever need an experienced MF crew with only 1-2 days notice hit me up!


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## Rafter Larry (Aug 10, 2021)

Bootboy said:


> “That’s racist! And here’s some articles written by left wing academics that say so.”
> 
> It’s like a religion to you people
> 
> You really don’t see how this rhetoric is weaponized to serve a divide and conquer tactic?


I am glad that I am not a comedian at this point of time. Way too many people are outraged over this and that when no clear racist statement was intended. I say this from the perspective of a person who has had more Chinese people over to my house than any other racial group. We made lots of jokes about Montezuma in my day and no one ever got punched.


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

It’s definitely already a weighted lottery. Weighted in favor of Idaho residents. Of that there is little doubt in my mind. Honestly, I can’t be mad about though, I’d enjoy the same privilege if I had it. I know people in Idaho who, out of a group of 5. Draw a prime-time permit at least every other year.

Imagine having grown up as an Idaho resident running that river. As you get older, a bunch of monkey-see monkey-do people from other states overwhelm the lottery system and you begin to find it nearly impossible to draw permits anymore. 

I feel the very same frustration with federally issued permits for other activities in my home state. The things I grew up doing on a whim within a couple hour’s drive in my state are now very hard to get permits for. If/when I or one of my friends is lucky enough to get a permit, the majority of the cars at trailheads are from out of state. Hell, growing up, permits weren’t even required for most of it.

This is why I’m not opposed to a little gatekeeping. I hate what social media has done to our national parks, and to some extent, rivers. I feel no compulsion to advertise my outdoor activities to people who simply represent more crowds at venues and future competition for permits. 

Anyway, that said, I am in favor of weighted lotteries for rivers, even if that means an extra point here and there for being a local.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

Bootboy said:


> It’s definitely already a weighted lottery. Weighted in favor of Idaho residents. Of that there is little doubt in my mind. Honestly, I can’t be mad about though, I’d enjoy the same privilege if I had it. I know people in Idaho who, out of a group of 5. Draw a prime-time permit at least every other year.
> 
> Imagine having grown up as an Idaho resident running that river. As you get older, a bunch of monkey-see monkey-do people from other states overwhelm the lottery system and you begin to find it nearly impossible to draw permits anymore.
> 
> ...


That’s how ruby is…soon to be the gunnison..


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Bootboy said:


> It’s definitely already a weighted lottery. Weighted in favor of Idaho residents. Of that there is little doubt in my mind. Honestly, I can’t be mad about though, I’d enjoy the same privilege if I had it. I know people in Idaho who, out of a group of 5. Draw a prime-time permit at least every other year.
> 
> Imagine having grown up as an Idaho resident running that river. As you get older, a bunch of monkey-see monkey-do people from other states overwhelm the lottery system and you begin to find it nearly impossible to draw permits anymore.
> 
> ...


If what you say is true, and I firmly believe that over my years of boating that there seems to be more truth than fiction to the fact that it's weighted in favor of Idaho people, I wonder what would happen if I drove to Idaho and rented a post office box so that I could have an Idaho address, enter the lottery using that address...

Seems like a lot of trouble to go through to game the system, but if it resulted in the Middle fork permit.. you're a lot closer to Idaho than I am boot boy.. just saying..


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> That’s how ruby is…soon to be the gunnison..


Except Ruby is monopolized by Grand junction locals, always has been and likely will be for the foreseeable future


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

MNichols said:


> Except Ruby is monopolized by Grand junction locals, always has been and likely will be for the foreseeable future


As in like commercial trips?


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> As in like commercial trips?


Commercial trips are but a tiny bit of use in the big scheme of things on RHT. Other than rimrock doing their thing, the majority of people on Ruby horse thief are private boaters. 

I only know one company, Holladay out of Green river that routinely does overnights up there, and very few of them. They turn RHT and Westwater into a 3 day trip for their customers..
The majority of use on Ruby horse thief is private, and comes from the Grand junction fruita area. They even have clubs up there that were designed to quote game the system unquote and secure as many permits as possible for campsites, usually the very desirable ones, for them and their friends.. I remember some years ago, watching four groups of 25 come down, that were so proud of themselves because they had secured four consecutive camps for their friends and party. That's a hundred people.. they said it wasn't hard at all to do, and that they had each one of the hundred people putting in for permits on rec.gov the minute it became available..


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

MNichols said:


> Commercial trips are but a tiny bit of use in the big scheme of things on RHT. Other than rimrock doing their thing, the majority of people on Ruby horse thief are private boaters.
> 
> I only know one company, Holladay out of Green river that routinely does overnights up there, and very few of them. They turn RHT and Westwater into a 3 day trip for their customers..
> The majority of use on Ruby horse thief is private, and comes from the Grand junction fruita area. They even have clubs up there that were designed to quote game the system unquote and secure as many permits as possible for campsites, usually the very desirable ones, for them and their friends.. I remember some years ago, watching four groups of 25 come down, that were so proud of themselves because they had secured four consecutive camps for their friends and party. That's a hundred people.. they said it wasn't hard at all to do, and that they had each one of the hundred people putting in for permits on rec.gov the minute it became available..


I have never heard of this, however, if it is true that's pretty f***ed. Reminds me of the ranch High Lonesome. They are doing everything they can to "checkered board" private land so no one has access to it. Crippled cowboy does this too..Bunch of jack assess. Unfortunate that people have to go to that extent to take permits/public land away from folks. If I recall correctly, there was a thread about a bunch of open campsites on ruby but zero permits available this past summer? There's always something or someone ruining it for the masses..The tragedy of the commons..


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

MNichols said:


> If what you say is true, and I firmly believe that over my years of boating that there seems to be more truth than fiction to the fact that it's weighted in favor of Idaho people, I wonder what would happen if I drove to Idaho and rented a post office box so that I could have an Idaho address, enter the lottery using that address...
> 
> Seems like a lot of trouble to go through to game the system, but if it resulted in the Middle fork permit.. you're a lot closer to Idaho than I am boot boy.. just saying..


I do have family in Idaho. noggin is joggin…


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Bootboy said:


> I do have family in Idaho. noggin is joggin…


If you draw of course I expect an invite!


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## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

Bootboy said:


> It’s definitely already a weighted lottery. Weighted in favor of Idaho residents. Of that there is little doubt in my mind.


My local Idaho rafting group of 20+ rafters (ALONG with their spouses, adults kids, distant relatives, co-workers, friends, enemies, strangers etc haha) wish that were true. Sadly, our lived experience over that last couple decades says otherwise. Doesn't mean it's not true though.


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

IDriverRunner said:


> My local Idaho rafting group of 20+ rafters (ALONG with their spouses, adults kids, distant relatives, co-workers, friends, enemies, strangers etc haha) wish that were true. Sadly, our lived experience over that last couple decades says otherwise. Doesn't mean it's not true though.


Perhaps it’s a more elite level of privilege then.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

IDriverRunner said:


> My local Idaho rafting group of 20+ rafters (ALONG with their spouses, adults kids, distant relatives, co-workers, friends, enemies, strangers etc haha) wish that were true. Sadly, our lived experience over that last couple decades says otherwise. Doesn't mean it's not true though.


So everyone and there grandmother is putting in for permits? Maybe this is why the rate has gone up? I mean it has gotten more popular, but if the heard mentality is “hey we all need to get as many people to put in to go” doesn’t that make it worse?


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## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> So everyone and there grandmother is putting in for permits? Maybe this is why the rate has gone up? I mean it has gotten more popular, but if the heard mentality is “hey we all need to get as many people to put in to go” doesn’t that make it worse?


Maybe it was a _slight_ exaggeration. Everyone that would be able to go does put in for a permit, yes.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> So everyone and there grandmother is putting in for permits? Maybe this is why the rate has gone up? I mean it has gotten more popular, but if the heard mentality is “hey we all need to get as many people to put in to go” doesn’t that make it worse?


Exactly, used to be you requested the paperwork, filled it out and enclosed a check for the fee, put it in an envelope, affixed a stamp, wrote the address on the front and put it in the mail...

Now with wreck.gov, click, click, click and done....


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

MNichols said:


> Exactly, used to be you requested the paperwork, filled it out and enclosed a check for the fee, put it in an envelope, affixed a stamp, wrote the address on the front and put it in the mail...
> 
> Now with wreck.gov, click, click, click and done....


I am not above implementing barriers to entry.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Bootboy said:


> I am not above implementing barriers to entry.


I'm not advocating any particular action here, but suppose a group of hackers took down wreck.gov.. just suppose... 

Would bring the government's finally oiled recreation machine right to it's very knees.. 

Problem is, they've all abandoned the old systems now and would never give thought to reimplementing them..

As our Cuban friend would say, we're fu*ked no matter how we look at it..


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## Urbud2have11 (Jun 20, 2021)

I didn’t look at the calendar slots before submitting 😑. Could’ve had better odds, at least I didn’t pick any dates with 0 or 1 lol. But if anyone wants to bring me along with them if they win I would be very greatful! Have a phat cat and an otter 142 in West Virginia. Hit me up for other non lottery possibilities too, really trying to make 2022 not suck.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

MNichols said:


> I'm not advocating any particular action here, but suppose a group of hackers took down wreck.gov.. just suppose...
> 
> Would bring the government's finally oiled recreation machine right to it's very knees..
> 
> ...


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> View attachment 72153


You and your images 😜😂🤣

Pray for 🌨❄🌨❄🌨


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

MNichols said:


> You and your images 😜😂🤣
> 
> Pray for 🌨❄🌨❄🌨


Lol wasn’t sure if you were talking about me or not so I felt awkward 😂😂😂


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

westwatercuban said:


> Lol wasn’t sure if you were talking about me or not so I felt awkward 😂😂😂


You, felt awkward?!?

Bwahahaha!

How many other West water Cubans do you think we have on this site lol


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Urbud2have11 said:


> I didn’t look at the calendar slots before submitting 😑. Could’ve had better odds, at least I didn’t pick any dates with 0 or 1 lol. But if anyone wants to bring me along with them if they win I would be very greatful! Have a phat cat and an otter 142 in West Virginia. Hit me up for other non lottery possibilities too, really trying to make 2022 not suck.


Oh, and by the by, welcome! Didn't mean to ignore you, but wwcuban is like that 😂😆😂 he gets all wrapped up posting his silly images and makes people forget the threads purpose which is, umm, wait a minute..

Damn you, did it to me again!


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

MNichols said:


> Oh, and by the by, welcome! Didn't mean to ignore you, but wwcuban is like that 😂😆😂 he gets all wrapped up posting his silly images and makes people forget the threads purpose which is, umm, wait a minute..
> 
> Damn you, did it to me again!


You old people and forgetting stuff 😂 the thread was originally about roll over permits, but dangerfield deleted his posts and dipped out on the site..think he was just over the bs..


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## Urbud2have11 (Jun 20, 2021)

I suppose if people didn’t look at the chart they would be more likely to pick days with less open slots and open up more for the more informed! Lol


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## Noswetnam (Mar 8, 2016)

And so the story goes…..


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

I was born in Idaho and never left. If we're using arbitrary data over my many trips to drop my boat at Boundary, I'd say the lottery is weighted to out-of-state permits but my data is arbitrary. I don't know the numbers but I meet a whole lotta out of state people at Boundary. Usually at least 50% of privates but probably more like 60-75%. They're all really great people...almost like they're some sort of river tribe or something...

This is my 20th year of putting in for each of the four rivers or 80 tries. I've drawn once for MFS. 1 in 80 permits...or 1.2%. Seems reasonable. I'm all for taking my chances every year on a strait lottery and not being an asshole so I'm hopefully lucky enough for an invite every year. I don't have kids so at this point in my life, am okay with a weighted system too. When those of you with kids and grandkids start wondering what point creep is and how it works and why your ilk will statistically draw very few permits, I'll be bummed but will have had my fair share of trips in the can.

Really, I just take exception to out-of-staters saying in-staters get more permits when my in-state perspective really wishes that was the case. Especially when it's a federally regulated resource.


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Most applications and most tickets to go Idaho. Seems pretty well distributed.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

theusualsuspect said:


> Most applications and most tickets to go Idaho. Seems pretty well distributed.


So...Mr. Fact Guy...if we're to read non-arbitrary data, like real data (if you believe the data source USDA), Idahoans actually drew a slightly lower % on the MFS last year? I stand corrected that out-of-staters only did better from a % perspective if you applied from: AK, AL, CA, FL, KY, MD, ME, MN, MO, MT, NH, NV, OH, OK, PA, RI, TN, TX, and WY. And if we go on straight % of success vs applications, Idaho has the biggest spread at 2.5% (worst rate of permits per applicant). in '21, Idahoans drew 43 of the 220 permits or 19.5% while applying for 22%. I guess I should change my arbitrary estimates to close to 80.5% out-of-state permit holders at the ramp.


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Conundrum said:


> So...Mr. Fact Guy...if we're to read non-arbitrary data, like real data (if you believe the data source USDA), Idahoans actually drew a slightly lower % on the MFS last year? I stand corrected that out-of-staters only did better from a % perspective if you applied from: AK, AL, CA, FL, KY, MD, ME, MN, MO, MT, NH, NV, OH, OK, PA, RI, TN, TX, and WY. And if we go on straight % of success vs applications, Idaho has the biggest spread at 2.5% (worst rate of permits per applicant). in '21, Idahoans drew 43 of the 220 permits or 19.5%. I guess I should change my arbitrary estimates to close to 80.5% out-of-state permit holders at the ramp.



I'm defending your previous statement. There is no other data available. 

I'm sure in past years Idaho didn't have a -2.5% spread, it seems pretty well randomized. For people to say that Idaho residents get more permits than others isn't true. I went on a trip with someone who got a permit this summer and was from Idaho. 80% of the people on our trip were from out of state so I get your perspective that most people are from out of state. 

Yes, point creep is something people who want weighted lotteries probably haven't experienced. Having experienced point creep in other activities I find it a sub-optimal way of handling the problem.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

theusualsuspect said:


> I'm defending your previous statement. There is no other data available.
> 
> I'm sure in past years Idaho didn't have a -2.5% spread, it seems pretty well randomized. For people to say that Idaho residents get more permits than others isn't true. I went on a trip with someone who got a permit this summer and was from Idaho. 80% of the people on our trip were from out of state so I get your perspective that most people are from out of state.
> 
> Yes, point creep is something people who want weighted lotteries probably haven't experienced. Having experienced point creep in other activities I find it a sub-optimal way of handling the problem.


I know and I appreciate your help. Just subtley joking that you used facts while not everyone looks at the numbers publically available. Had a few happy hour pops and didn't pull the data but know what I see every year and was too lazy to pull the spreadsheet. Was certainly poking sticks at those saying Idahoans get more permits. 

Not directed at you-we all get it and feel it. We want to get on the river and don't always get a permit or invite. What we all don't get is sometimes it's easy to point fingers instead of just saying we're bummed that the odds didn't favor us. What makes that place special is not everyone gets to go every year. If I didn't get to go the times I have, I might be skeptical too.


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Conundrum said:


> I know and I appreciate your help. Just subtley joking that you used facts while not everyone looks at the numbers publically available.


Sounds like I missed the sarcasm, that's about par for the course for me! It is such a special and beautiful place, I understand why it is hard to get a permit and enjoy the quality of the experience when I have been able to go. Imma go have some happy hour pops too because clearly I need a few...


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## climbdenali (Apr 2, 2006)

So, will someone explain point creep? Is it like weighted lottery inflation?


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## Taku (Apr 7, 2016)

Unfortunately, I would say it is going to get far worse. Not wanting to delve too deeply into politics, but based on how elections may go, I have no doubt we will see more and more permits going to outfitters than the public. Watch MT FWP and elk management plans for a lesson in privitization (or several other states that have done this).


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## MikeG (Mar 6, 2004)

I pulled a regular season permit in 1996ish and not since. It is tempting to think the system must be rigged and that after 25 years I should have won more. However, your odds don’t change by submitting multiple years, it just feels like they should. To think of it another way, you have about a 99% chance of NOT winning each year. The probability of NOT winning 25 years in a row is about 78% so pretty likely you will not win. If your chances are 2% to win and therefore 98% to NOT win, the probability of that happening 25 years in a row is 60% so still not a surprise result, just a disappointing one. 
Over the last 20 years, the probability of a mountain buzz thread turning into a political or partisan quagmire has increased from 5% to 98.7% (ish). Chunder Boy would be so proud.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

climbdenali said:


> So, will someone explain point creep? Is it like weighted lottery inflation?


Yes, lottery inflation is a good way of saying it.

The snowball takes awhile to get rolling but essentially those who have been in the game multiple years don't gain much for draw odds because everyone gains more points every year while those new to the sport lose odds. Especially with the number of applicants on popular rivers.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Conundrum said:


> Yes, lottery inflation is a good way of saying it.
> 
> The snowball takes awhile to get rolling but essentially those who have been in the game multiple years don't gain much for draw odds because everyone gains more points every year while those new to the sport lose odds. Especially with the number of applicants on popular rivers.


And that's what seems to be happening with the GC lotteries as well. 5 pointers used to be pretty much assured of a permit. Not so much anymore, but then with over 6000 applicants for 350 +- permits, that may not be the case at all. I know Steve Sullivan personally, we met when I was on the GCPBA board back in the day, I can't think of anyone involved in issuing river permits that is so steadfast in his wish for things to be fair, and above board. He would never waver from enforcing the rules in place to ensure as fair and just a system as possible. Linda Jalbert was the very same way, but she retired and now heads up RMS, the River Management Society. I simply don't have the same faith in the wreck.gov algorithms that I do in the GC process, but it doesn't seem equitable and never has, to me anyway. Back when the 4 rivers lottery was running, one of the managers, Sherry Powench (sp?) used to post on the idahowhitewater yahoo group. She seemed genuinely concerned, but nothing ever changed, for me anyway.

I wish I had a solution to the permit mess, I personally have never drawn a GC permit, instead going on other's permits, so I don't have an opportunity to build 5 points, but before I get too damn old, I'd like just once to do a trip on my OWN permit. I gave up on the 4 rivers lottery or whatever it's being called now, 23 years IIRC of applying, and never drew. I did the Selway on a friend's permit, and he drew if memory serves, 3 more permits in 3 consecutive years. That was before wreck.gov hit the scene, but the odds, 61 private permits a year, and he drew 4 years in a row.. Must have been some rabbits foot he was stroking as he filled out the paperwork. 

I'm not sure that a change in political party will do much at all regarding private vs commercial allocation, the USFS and BLM, who do most of the "rule-making" as it were, simply don't actively bow to the perceived powers that be in that fashion. Yes, there are people like Orrin Hatch and his family that had some influence, but not toward allocation, more toward drastic changes in the established system that would hurt his families businesses. He retired back in 2019 IIRC, one would think that he'd be able to move mountains in the allocation respect, but it never happened. Did he have some influence, well mostly in the press, but perception is all important to government agencies, and I think a lot of his bluster was in vain, as said agencies hate media attention, and given that attention would stick like glue to the established rules and norms that have been in place for years. 

But I digress. Now that the advocacy groups are more or less satisfied with what exists, and the gubbermint doesn't see a problem with how things are operating, they stand as little more than a masthead, relying on their accomplishments in the past, or lack thereof, such as GCPBA and RRFW respectively. Not sure how to change this, short of a lot of money thrown at attorneys to start lawsuits which may or may not (likely the latter) produce results. 

The premise that this thread was started on to bring things back full circle, was the issuance of fewer permits due to the china virus allowing folks to defer their launches, and now that the deferment window has opened, they now wish to use the permit they won, resulting in fewer available launches in the lottery. Not sure if an appeal to the managing agency would do anything like it did in GCNP. GCPBA wrote a letter to the park, and had an additional (if memory serves) 75 private launches added to the calendar because of the virus's affects due to deferments. Perhaps the USFS could be persuaded to add some launches to the calendar on the MFS ? Don't know, and don't know that there's an organized group, past AW that would lend their name and resources to it. In the past years, it seems AW has become less about advocacy to private boaters, and more toward larger projects and goals, but I could be wrong, just the way it appears to me. IIRC in GC they did little past lending their name to the lawsuit that GCPBA initiated. Don't remember a whole lot of active involvement from them back then. 

FWIW, YMMV


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## climbdenali (Apr 2, 2006)

Conundrum said:


> Yes, lottery inflation is a good way of saying it.
> 
> The snowball takes awhile to get rolling but essentially those who have been in the game multiple years don't gain much for draw odds because everyone gains more points every year while those new to the sport lose odds. Especially with the number of applicants on popular rivers.


So, to help avoid the creep, do you think would it work to simply eliminate the 5 point max in GC? i.e., a person would get 1 point for each year they haven't been in the GC up to 5, and beyond that they can accumulate additional points for each year that they apply. Not so much like hunting where you have to have a minimum number of points to even be considered for certain draws, but more like it is now where a person with only 1 point could still win, just has lower odds.

I've thought a weighted lottery was in order for the Middle Fork for a long time, and I also think that despite the low odds of success, the GC is the fairest permit system in the country. Due in no small part to the very strict enforcement of the rules.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

You bring up an interesting point, but I'm not sure it would make much difference in the issuing of permits at the end of the day.. it would simply raise the bar, in my opinion there are just too many people that want to access the resource then the resource can feasibly handle without completely and totally destroying it..

I don't have the numbers on how many people with five points wait how many years to get a permit, but I would be hard pressed to think it would be more than six or seven years at the most.

To me, Grand Canyon is an incredibly special place and should be preserved, protecting the resource should be right up there with accessing the resource.

As long as we have 6,000 give or take people vying for 350 give or take permits every year, getting a permit to go is going to be a bitch. A lucky few will score each year, and I hope they decide to take me with them LOL.. if not, I should wait my turn in the hopes that one day before I become too old and decrepit to go, I will have my very own permit, and can choose my very own friends to go with, and stop where I want, and do what I want to do.. 

So far, some years when I donate my 25 bucks it reminds me of the old Allman Brothers song, dreams I'll never see. But one can hope, and keep trying..


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

And Just as an aside, I haven't had the opportunity to run the Middle fork in over 10 years, a whole lot of things contributed to that, but nonetheless the point that I was going to make is, compared to many other rivers that support overnight trips, the Middle fork to me seemed over allocated back then, most of the hardened sites hammered into the ground from over visitation. I'm sure it hasn't gotten any better over the years. I thought it a shame back then... 

Many people enjoy Rivers for the White water experience, many for the scenery, to me a wild and scenic River should be just that, wild and scenic.. in my 20 some odd years as a volunteer ranger at West water, I spent many long hours on reclamation, trying to undo the damage that visitation did. It doesn't have to be malicious, just that many people impacting the resource through visitation has negative effects..

Just a thought..


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## BenSlaughter (Jun 16, 2017)

Perhaps a system in which you only got one "pass" year(ie, you failed to apply) before you lose your points.
I'll bet there are an awful lot of people who only apply periodically, who then wouldn't "bring the average down" for everyone else.
I think on 'grace' year is reasonable. Shit happens.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

BenSlaughter said:


> Perhaps a system in which you only got one "pass" year(ie, you failed to apply) before you lose your points.
> I'll bet there are an awful lot of people who only apply periodically, who then wouldn't "bring the average down" for everyone else.
> I think on 'grace' year is reasonable. Shit happens.


If I recall correctly, that's how the old Grand Canyon waiting list worked..


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

climbdenali said:


> So, to help avoid the creep, do you think would it work to simply eliminate the 5 point max in GC? i.e., a person would get 1 point for each year they haven't been in the GC up to 5, and beyond that they can accumulate additional points for each year that they apply. Not so much like hunting where you have to have a minimum number of points to even be considered for certain draws, but more like it is now where a person with only 1 point could still win, just has lower odds.
> 
> I've thought a weighted lottery was in order for the Middle Fork for a long time, and I also think that despite the low odds of success, the GC is the fairest permit system in the country. Due in no small part to the very strict enforcement of the rules.


Boy, I don't really know. I'm not familiar with the GC system. Shame on me for never throwing my name in I guess. It's a really tough question to answer whether talking GC or MFS. Should people that have wanted to get on longer have a better shot...? It's all public resources we should all have access to at some point. I don't have a good answer.


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

BenSlaughter said:


> Perhaps a system in which you only got one "pass" year(ie, you failed to apply) before you lose your points.
> I'll bet there are an awful lot of people who only apply periodically, who then wouldn't "bring the average down" for everyone else.
> I think on 'grace' year is reasonable. Shit happens.


The old Grand Canyon permit system was just simply a 'List' you signed up on and paid an initial fee and that was it. Back then it was 'cool' to say you were on the list so everyone did it and it got as long as 25 years long I think at one point. The problem was that when the permits finally came up many years later people's heath or life situations may have changed dramatically. Since there was no penalty for cancellation other than loosing your permit many people never cancelled and many permits were going unused. When I began working down there in the early 2000's we would go days without seeing privates on the river and it was sad to see that use going to waste.

There is no 'perfect' system I don't think but what we have on the Grand now is a major improvement from what was arguably the worst system ever. I always wondered why the Grand had it own lottery and rating system back then and some things don't change.


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

Been a few years for me or my paddle group to hit the Salt.

But back in the days of our youth, we hit it just about every year for quite a long time.

Back then I believe Ranger Don did the entire thing manually.

I remember the note he sent out when the computer took over, I thought well this is the end
of a good thing. I was right.


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

Good old Donnie Sullivan! He is a legend in his own time and mind! 🙂

I did my first salt trip in the late 90s a couple years after Quartzsite was blown but never been back unfortunately.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

mkashzg said:


> The old Grand Canyon permit system was just simply a 'List' you signed up on and paid an initial fee and that was it. Back then it was 'cool' to say you were on the list so everyone did it and it got as long as 25 years long I think at one point. The problem was that when the permits finally came up many years later people's heath or life situations may have changed dramatically. Since there was no penalty for cancellation other than loosing your permit many people never cancelled and many permits were going unused. When I began working down there in the early 2000's we would go days without seeing privates on the river and it was sad to see that use going to waste.
> 
> There is no 'perfect' system I don't think but what we have on the Grand now is a major improvement from what was arguably the worst system ever. I always wondered why the Grand had it own lottery and rating system back then and some things don't change.


Not quite, but darn close.

You sent them a continuing interest letter every year to remain on the list, if memory serves there was a fee involved each year eventually but it was so long ago. Also, if memory serves, you could miss one year with your continuing interest letter and still stay on the list. The list grew to 8000 names, and the wait grew to almost 20 years. Back in the day, there were 250 private launches a year, all in the spring and summer, and the allocation was 70% commercial, 30% private. If you were on the waiting list, you'd take your list number, divide it by 250 and you'll be able to guess how many more years until you could lead your own trip, and don't forget to add that number of years to your present age so you'll know how old you will be when you get to launch... 

If after a year of GCNP not hearing anything from the prospective permittee, their name was dropped from the list. Likely the only reason the list didn't number in the tens of thousands. Rarely if ever did a private launch go unused, or without the maximum number of participants allowed, it was, and still is 16, as it was considered a sin among private Grand canyon boaters not to take everyone that could go if you won a permit, cause permits were so hard to get. This practice was cointinued thru the first 4 or 5 years of the lottery system, as people on the waiting list transitioned to the lottery system, the small (8) person trips were filled, but the real competition was for the 16 person permits, my personal theory is that it was due to that mindset. In the old days, if a launch went unused for whatever reason, it was not put back into the pool, it just went unused.

It became so hard to get a permit, that river running folks were putting their newborn child's name on the list as soon as they got a Social Security number in the hopes they would have a permit on their 18th birthday. GCPBA sued the NPS and Superintendent Joe Alston back in 1997 if I remember the year correctly, to restart work on the CRMP, which had been stopped, as Alston said, for the reason that he believed that the commercial outfitters and the private boaters would never get together and form a consensus as to allocation or anything, and that further work on the CRMP was futile.. 

The Lawsuit GCPBA filed, along with the American Canoe Assn. and American Whitewater signing on to restart work on the CRMP changed all that, and over the next few years, the commercial outfitters, the Guides thru GCRG, the commercial customers thru GCRRA and the private boaters thru GCPBA all hashed out a lottery system and rules and regulations related to the new system with GCNP until we have what we have today. Had the guides and the commercial customers not been recognized as stakeholders in the process, the outcome might have been different, but it is what it was, and personally, being involved in the actual process, I think what ended up was far superior to the waiting list, but not all feel as I do. 

If anyone is interested in that history, the gcpba.org website has a section for archives of it's very well written publication, "The waiting list" which details the history of the lawsuit, and the trials and tribulations that were dealt with in order to get us what we have today. It's most interesting reading for anyone with a lot of time, and history of GCPBA and the CRMP process. Lot of good information there otherwise. 

FWIW..


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## Will Amette (Jan 28, 2017)

Getting ready to submit my application (annual donation to the contractor that runs the lottery) and had an unusual idea.

I'm going to assume most boaters are savvy and will look at the PDF of what launches are available for the dates they want. I expect people may opt to move their desired launch to a date with more launches to improve odds. But if everyone does it.... then odds might be better to apply for dates with reduced availability because of roll-overs. Well, maybe not for those zero days, but for the days with two or three launches.

Someone has to be the first name pulled out of the hat....


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

Will Amette said:


> Getting ready to submit my application (annual donation to the contractor that runs the lottery) and had an unusual idea.
> 
> I'm going to assume most boaters are savvy and will look at the PDF of what launches are available for the dates they want. I expect people may opt to move their desired launch to a date with more launches to improve odds. But if everyone does it.... then odds might be better to apply for dates with reduced availability because of roll-overs. Well, maybe not for those zero days, but for the days with two or three launches.
> 
> Someone has to be the first name pulled out of the hat....


Don't forget to move it back one calendar day per year (or two on leap years).

The Main and Middle have a disproportionately high number of requests for Sun and Mon launches, so I tended to put in for Thu-Fri-Sat.


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## Inoturtle (Feb 13, 2021)

We all have our strategies. I opt for Tuesday launches from similar conclusions of data.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

I really like camping somewhere along the upper stretch for my birthday so we always put in for the same days. It’s during the peak so I would say my strategy sucks for odds but one could argue it’s still a strategy.


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