# ...and the rejections begin. :(



## SherpaDave

Same


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## jrice345

Funny thing. I just ordered an Aire 146DD from Dusty. Then ten minutes later, rejection....


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## ColoradoDave

From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;

From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.

Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.

Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.


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## no1kobefan

Samesies. Ugh.


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## dwjohnson

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;
> 
> From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.
> 
> Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.
> 
> Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.


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## dwjohnson

Preach it brother!


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## dwjohnson

feel Ike I'm 15 at the High School Dance again! No way looser, get away from me, eeeewwww!


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## Hellonreels434

Applied for the San Juan permit for the first time, is there a sequence that they announce certain rivers before others? Haven’t received any results news, my app results are still saying pending.....


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## theusualsuspect

Dino/Rogue tell me no...again


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## GS Dave

No Yampa


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## MNichols

GS Dave said:


> No Yampa


Ditto


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## kayakingphotog

Hellonreels434 said:


> Applied for the San Juan permit for the first time, is there a sequence that they announce certain rivers before others? Haven’t received any results news, my app results are still saying pending.....


Check the recgov site for your particular lottery app. I know that the Idaho rivers are announced this sunday. Crossing my fingers for a MF win to link up w/a Main turn the corner. The Main is a deferral due to COVID. The MF is wishful thinking...........


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## DarkStartSociety

Same. New boat was delivered last night rejection this morning No Green No Dino


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## Hellonreels434

San Juan rejection x 3...... ughhhhhhhhh


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## John_in_Loveland

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;
> 
> From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.
> 
> Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.
> 
> Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.


Take a look at the condition of the Upper C - Feces, trash, multiple black fire rings, worn camps, new trails, and then tell me permits are not a good and necessary evil!!!!!


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## no1kobefan

Denied on green and yampa as well. Ughhhh.


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## craven_morhead

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;


Uggggg can we not with this stuff every time the topic of permits comes up?


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## Airjammer

DNM / Yampa .... No


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## Eagle Mapper

No yampa / green rivers for me.  Oh add the San Juan as well. The hits keep coming!


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## panicman

No yampa/Dino/san juan but hey got on Dino the last 3 years.


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## NathanH.

jrice345 said:


> No Rogue for me.


There's a really good chance to get a permit for the Rogue the day of if you're there early. I have a lot of buddies who have never actually drawn a permit but have taken a lot of trips with the 5am at the station method.


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## Deagol

I got my rejection email as well.......


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## Rick A

0 for 3 so far. Just know if you're not on this thread bitching with the rest of us we suspect you have a permit. So get those invites out quick, please. Pretty please.


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## Utah78

I just got a San Juan for mid-June! Luckily my brother also has a pandemic rollover of his Main Salmon for Mid-July as well, so 2 great trips to look forward to. 

Sorry, I don't say this to rub it in. In fact, for me and my wife its been years since we scored on any permits ourselves (although we have been invited along for some great permitted trips with friends), so last year's permit release dates I had similar sad times as you guys. Best of luck to everyone for the rest of your lottery results!

I've never been down the San Juan so I'm looking forward to that one. Hopefully we get enough snowpack that it will still have good flows in June.


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## jrice345

NathanH. said:


> There's a really good chance to get a permit for the Rogue the day of if you're there early. I have a lot of buddies who have never actually drawn a permit but have taken a lot of trips with the 5am at the station method.


Yeah, we only live a couple hours away so we pick up open spots every season.


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## cnile970

I wish commercial outfitters could take a backseat to the public. These companies make it difficult for the average MF to do anything. We got denied for everything we tried for 3 years in a row.


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## WyBackCountry

cnile970 said:


> I wish commercial outfitters could take a backseat to the public. These companies make it difficult for the average MF to do anything. We got denied for everything we tried for 3 years in a row.



I got ya beat, 9 years in a row with no lottery permit wins on anything I've applied for. I'm sure there are some out there that have me beat as well....it's all about the invites and post season for me.


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## MNichols

WyBackCountry said:


> I got ya beat, 9 years in a row with no lottery permit wins on anything I've applied for. I'm sure there are some out there that have me beat as well....it's all about the invites and post season for me.


Over 24 years of applying for the middle fork... And the Selway... Never did get one


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## MNichols

cnile970 said:


> I wish commercial outfitters could take a backseat to the public. These companies make it difficult for the average MF to do anything. We got denied for everything we tried for 3 years in a row.


It's not just the commercial outfitters, the sport of rafting has taken off and continues to hit new highs every year. in last year's follow-up lottery for Grand canyon national Park they had something like 6,000 private individuals applying for 66 permits... About the same chances as the Powerball but on a smaller scale. commercial outfitters serve the public as well, if you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000 into the gear and gaining the experience to row your own boat down the river, they offer a service...


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## cnile970

WyBackCountry said:


> I got ya beat, 9 years in a row with no lottery permit wins on anything I've applied for. I'm sure there are some out there that have me beat as well....it's all about the invites and post season for me.


Me too. Luckily we have some rarely used and amazing places free of permits. But they are far and few between. Getting harder to find. I totally get the permit process, I just wish it was a little more balanced.


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## cnile970

MNichols said:


> It's not just the commercial outfitters, the sport of rafting has taken off and continues to hit new highs every year. in last year's follow-up lottery for Grand canyon national Park they had something like 6,000 private individuals applying for 66 permits... About the same chances as the Powerball but on a smaller scale. commercial outfitters serve the public as well, if you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000 into the gear and gaining the experience to row your own boat down the river, they offer a service...


Agreed. But the Grand is a different animal than say the Smith, Salmon or Yampa. A couple families with cheap gear can do these rivers. Im not anti outfitter, but they do kind of crush us on our home rivers.


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## Beaver Whisperer

No dino/yampa permit for me, but I'm use to rejection. I have never won a lottery anywhere or of any kind.


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## Nanko

MNichols said:


> if you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000 into the gear and gaining the experience to row your own boat down the river, they offer a service...


“If you don’t want to learn a new skill, don’t worry, the government will make sure you skip to the front of the line.”

I’ve boated with an almost-blind dude, lady in a full leg cast, many in their 70s, little kids. Where is this mythical public that “needs” outfitter service?


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## zercon

They really need to look at the usage for Lodore. Why do they only allow one trip per day after September 10? I used to always count on a late season Lodore.


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## Flatlandr360

NathanH. said:


> There's a really good chance to get a permit for the Rogue the day of if you're there early. I have a lot of buddies who have never actually drawn a permit but have taken a lot of trips with the 5am at the station method.



...Sure, if you happen to be in the neighborhood...

No Rogue for us so far.


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## MNichols

Nanko said:


> “If you don’t want to learn a new skill, don’t worry, the government will make sure you skip to the front of the line.”
> 
> I’ve boated with an almost-blind dude, lady in a full leg cast, many in their 70s, little kids. Where is this mythical public that “needs” outfitter service?


well, if it hadn't been for commercial outfitter on the Snake River when I was 12 years old, I never would have gone boating in the first place, and never decided to take up the sport. there are hundreds of thousands of people that would like to go down the river but don't have the skills or the equipment. They aren't mythical, they exist


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## Nanko

MNichols said:


> well, if it hadn't been for commercial outfitter on the Snake River when I was 12 years old, I never would have gone boating in the first place, and never decided to take up the sport. there are hundreds of thousands of people that would like to go down the river but don't have the skills or the equipment. They aren't mythical, they exist


I hear ya, I’m conflicted. The pro-commercial argument of exposing kids who become lifelong boaters is a good one.

Indeed there are huge numbers of people who don’t have the skills or equipment. One easy way to solve this is to get the skills and equipment. If a person doesn’t want to make this _choice_, fine. But then let’s not reward that choice with unlimited prime dates anywhere.


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## no1kobefan

NathanH. said:


> There's a really good chance to get a permit for the Rogue the day of if you're there early. I have a lot of buddies who have never actually drawn a permit but have taken a lot of trips with the 5am at the station method.


This sounds interesting, but I'm all the way in Los Angeles. That would be a major mission to drive up there with all the gear and all my people on not get on the river.


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## Bootboy

Only 1 rejection so far.... fingers crossed for the other 5


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## MNichols

Nanko said:


> I hear ya, I’m conflicted. The pro-commercial argument of exposing kids who become lifelong boaters is a good one.
> 
> Indeed there are huge numbers of people who don’t have the skills or equipment. One easy way to solve this is to get the skills and equipment. If a person doesn’t want to make this _choice_, fine. But then let’s not reward that choice with unlimited prime dates anywhere.


Well, again. Commercial companies do not have unlimited prime dates. Wherever the river is permitted, they generally have SUA's, or special use agreements, or some method of being permitted. Here on the Arkansas they do have SUA's, and their allocation is very closely rationed. Yes, they still turn the river into a zoo, it's big business.

People yearn for instant gratification, and the commercial companies are there to provide it. Think about rivers like the sellway, where each commercial outfitter gets four trips a year, and there are 61 if I remember correctly private permits per year... Seems pretty equitable to me, but I'm only using that one river as an example. In Grand canyon, of course everybody would like to have more use, but the resource still needs to be protected. Not really so much on the middle fork or all of the sites are hardened, and have been beat into the ground over the years of both private and commercial traffic... Somebody mentioned previously the piles of feces and the fires and the trash, that's what Ruby Horsethief was like before they put a permit system in there... Now it's a much nicer place to be

Just sayin


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## Canyon Coolers

No Yampa, No Dino, No San Juan - Seems like they rolled over a lot of last years COVID canceled permits. It might just be a brutal year to get a permit.


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## MT4Runner

Nanko said:


> Indeed there are huge numbers of people who don’t have the skills or equipment. One easy way to solve this is to get the skills and equipment. If a person doesn’t want to make this _choice_, fine. But then let’s not reward that choice with unlimited prime dates anywhere.


The barrier to entry is steep (but not insurmountable) as a private....yet if we add that many more boaters (and COVID is creating a whole new pool of outdoorspeople under our noses)we'll have that many more privates to compete with an already finite number of permits.

Outfitters don't have unlimited prime dates...but they do have a lot of historical grandfathered prime dates. Getting any of them as a private is an even steeper hill. I think reallocation is a fool's errand on any river, and we're stuck with what we're stuck with.


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## Pinner62

Yamp, Green, San Juan, denied


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## Nanko

Unlimited was poor word choice. I meant that in the sense that I can go sign up for my choice of commercial dates on any river. So, effectively unlimited to me as an individual. Let’s assume 50/50 allocation. Half is for people with skills and equipment. For the most part, the other half is for people that simply don’t prioritize gaining skills and equipment. Or who lose so long they buy privilege. We are all the public, so why the distinction? Every client I see seems capable of learning whatever river we are on. We all like instant gratification, but there is no place for it in a system choked with demand. I fail to see the need for almost any commercial allocation. 

I’m just talking allocation. Permits are great. Lotteries are obviously necessary. Resource protection above all. And yes, this is a fools errand but fun to think about. I’m incredibly grateful to all those who work for the private access we do have.


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## MNichols

Well, if you prefer to look at it with blinders on, then yes. The only truly fair way would be to have a common pool lottery system where both private boaters and commercial customers put in for their choice of date and drew in the lottery just like private boaters do. 

Commercial customers don't just bring money to the outfitters, they bring money to the towns and the businesses within the town, whole economies were built around commercial outfitters moving people down the river, not to mention that the managing agencies like the Forest service and the BLM, typically gain a huge part of their operating budget to oversee these activities from surcharges on the commercial trips. It's a huge ecosystem that starts with the commercial boaters money and brings jobs and tourism to towns that might not otherwise see it.

The managing agencies like money, the commercial companies, most of whom have been in existence for 20 to 30 years, are going to defend what they have with their last breath, the reason we don't have a common pool system. 

I spent 8 years on the board of the Grand canyon private boaters association when we sued the national Park service to restart work on the Colorado River management plan. We went up against the commercial outfitters, Grand canyon River guides, and the customers gathering, the Grand canyon river runners association. I never realized just exactly how much weight these companies have, supported by their guides, and their customers, three separate stakeholder groups in Grand canyon up against the poor private boaters. It's amazing we got what we did

at the end of the day, I don't think that it's anything that we're going to be able to change in the short-term, but in the long term attrition may just take care of the problem.. or not


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## Deagol

the government seems to always lean towards business over grassroots people for my experience. Similar things have happened in other sports that I have been involved with. I see all these youtube videos of "non-river people" going on commercial trips down the grand canyon and I am jealous (not that I would want to go on a commercial trip vs private, if I had the choice). I mean no offense about non-river people, but I imagine everyone here would know what I mean. "River people" devote a significant amount of our lives, thoughts, time, money, efforts, emotions, etc to rivers. It's not like going to an amusement park for us...

I don't think it will ever change. There are so many people who all want the same thing, but use different means to compete for it.


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## chuckd

I won dino green


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## Redside

No San Juan here.

Outfitters are not the reason you don't have a permit. Its because there is a shit ton more people putting in for them. 22,389 applications for the Middle Fork this year, up almost 5,000 applications from 2019. New applicants have been basically been doubling the past 3 years. Can you imagine if that keeps up, 30k apps next year, 50k apps the following? That just doesn't seem possible and all for 387 permits, good luck. 



https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5408633.pdf



And here's the list of commercial dates in case your wondering, looks like just over 300 launches. Of course if we took those permits, the outfitters would have to have their customers put in for them, there's another 10k people added for 300 launches, sweet. 



https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5364362.pdf


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## MT4Runner

Deagol said:


> I see all these youtube videos of "non-river people" going on commercial trips down the grand canyon and I am jealous (not that I would want to go on a commercial trip vs private, if I had the choice). I mean no offense about non-river people, but I imagine everyone here would know what I mean. "River people" devote a significant amount of our lives, thoughts, time, money, efforts, emotions, etc to rivers. It's not like going to an amusement park for us...


Yeah, it may not be as deeply significant for them or the one thing they dream about the other 344 days a year in between big trips....but there's more value in them going on that one trip than there is in them going on a long cruise with the same $5k a head vacation budget. While I see things through the eyes of a "river person", I also realize the value of those "non-river people". They may only make a single multiday trip in their lifetime, but will be forever changed. The next time someone wants to dam the GC, we've got their votes and voices against it. Martin Litton got it--he wasn't in it to make a buck, but to make an ally.

Is it frustrating and painful to say this? Yeah. I'd love a prime week every year on the MF Salmon, but it makes me savor it when I do go every 5 years...and makes me value even more my more freqent off-season weekend trips on local rivers with frosty mornings and good friends.


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## MNichols

MT4Runner said:


> Yeah, it may not be as deeply significant for them or the one thing they dream about the other 344 days a year in between big trips....but there's more value in them going on that one trip than there is in them going on a long cruise with the same $5k a head vacation budget. While I see things through the eyes of a "river person", I also realize the value of those "non-river people". They may only make a single multiday trip in their lifetime, but will be forever changed. The next time someone wants to dam the GC, we've got their votes and voices against it. Martin Litton got it--he wasn't in it to make a buck, but to make an ally.
> 
> Is it frustrating and painful to say this? Yeah. I'd love a prime week every year on the MF Salmon, but it makes me savor it when I do go every 5 years...and makes me value even more my more freqent off-season weekend trips on local rivers with frosty mornings and good friends.


One of my very biggest heroes, Martin Litton RIP. In between him, and arguably Herm hoops, also RIP, they did more for conservationalism, access, and just generally promoting the river than anyone else, again in my opinion


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## Rightoarleft

chuckd said:


> I won dino green


Maybe I'll see you there!

I have never won a permit in my life. I've gotten so used to rejection that it seemed stupid to check. Then... WOOHOO !!! Got Lodore !!! Happy dance !!!!

Let me tell you about my friend who, in a span of 7 years, scored TWO GC permits (one on his first try), a congruent Lodore/Deso (that's a nightmare shuttle), and TWO congruent MF/main Salmon trips. He's a good guy to know.

Clearly some of us pray to the wrong gods.


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## MT4Runner

MNichols said:


> One of my very biggest heroes, Martin Litton RIP. In between him, and arguably Herm hoops, also RIP, they did more for conservationalism, access, and just generally promoting the river than anyone else, again in my opinion


I watched the Salad Days video of Herm shortly before he passed. Very cool of NRS to honor his legacy and share his voice while he was still able to get on the river and share his own thoughts.


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## no1kobefan

Rightoarleft said:


> Maybe I'll see you there!
> 
> I have never won a permit in my life. I've gotten so used to rejection that it seemed stupid to check. Then... WOOHOO !!! Got Lodore !!! Happy dance !!!!
> 
> Let me tell you about my friend who, in a span of 7 years, scored TWO GC permits (one on his first try), a congruent Lodore/Deso (that's a nightmare shuttle), and TWO congruent MF/main Salmon trips. He's a good guy to know.
> 
> Clearly some of us pray to the wrong gods.


You're kidding me?!?!


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## Deagol

agree all, 
Also, I am sure this video is old news around here but if anyone hasn't seen it yet, a great watch:


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## Rightoarleft

no1kobefan said:


> You're kidding me?!?!


Straight up honest truth. 

I would add the GC trips were both Nov launches which are pretty easy to get. First trip we had Thanksgiving at Phantom Ranch before breaking oars in Horn Creek rapid. Horn at 24k is just nasty. Second trip was blessed with a 40k flood for a sediment restoration project. We tried to layover while it passed and darn near lost our camp. We stayed all night on guard against the rising water. By morning we were defending a 10 foot strip of land with our backs to the cliff.

The MF/main trips were both late season, which again, are easier to get. That said, the man does have a way with words and there was some fanangling with relevant authorities.


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## John_in_Loveland

MNichols said:


> Well, if you prefer to look at it with blinders on, then yes. The only truly fair way would be to have a common pool lottery system where both private boaters and commercial customers put in for their choice of date and drew in the lottery just like private boaters do.
> 
> Commercial customers don't just bring money to the outfitters, they bring money to the towns and the businesses within the town, whole economies were built around commercial outfitters moving people down the river, not to mention that the managing agencies like the Forest service and the BLM, typically gain a huge part of their operating budget to oversee these activities from surcharges on the commercial trips. It's a huge ecosystem that starts with the commercial boaters money and brings jobs and tourism to towns that might not otherwise see it.
> 
> The managing agencies like money, the commercial companies, most of whom have been in existence for 20 to 30 years, are going to defend what they have with their last breath, the reason we don't have a common pool system.
> 
> I spent 8 years on the board of the Grand canyon private boaters association when we sued the national Park service to restart work on the Colorado River management plan. We went up against the commercial outfitters, Grand canyon River guides, and the customers gathering, the Grand canyon river runners association. I never realized just exactly how much weight these companies have, supported by their guides, and their customers, three separate stakeholder groups in Grand canyon up against the poor private boaters. It's amazing we got what we did
> 
> at the end of the day, I don't think that it's anything that we're going to be able to change in the short-term, but in the long term attrition may just take care of the problem.. or not


Personally I think the "points" system on the Grand is a good start but I don't understand why they limit one to only 5 points. Why not let them keep growing? As importantly, there were rumors of a point system for the Four Rivers, but I havent heard much about that either. That seems like low hanging fruit if one wanted to change thesystem.


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## MNichols

Life on the Grand.. I sure do miss it and I sure do wish I could get there to be annoyed by it


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## jbomb

MNichols said:


> ... if you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000 into the gear and gaining the experience to row your own boat down the river, they offer a service...


If you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000, you can pay an outfitter $11000 to take your family of 4 down the MF once.


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## MT4Runner

Deagol said:


> agree all,
> Also, I am sure this video is old news around here but if anyone hasn't seen it yet, a great watch:


Pretty hard to top Fedarko's storytelling, McBride's videography, and Litton's own words and those of his longtime guides.


And the one I mentioned:





Both beautiful stories.


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## Electric-Mayhem

John_in_Loveland said:


> Personally I think the "points" system on the Grand is a good start but I don't understand why they limit one to only 5 points. Why not let them keep growing? As importantly, there were rumors of a point system for the Four Rivers, but I havent heard much about that either. That seems like low hanging fruit if one wanted to change thesystem.


The people on the waitlist got more then 5 points to make up for the time they spent on it. I think they could take a date or points. Not sure what the maximum points they gave out was for that...but I know my TL in 2019 had 17 points. Once all the waitlist peeps use theirs it'll be 5 points max no matter what though...pending changes (haven't heard plans to change that part though).

I'm in the same boat as most...no go for the Dino dates I put in for. Still hoping for Selway or MFS dates but not holding my breath. Like most...I've never won in a lottery. I've had more luck with cancellations...but still limited success. Luckily I'm not overly picky and have friends that seem to be more lucky then I.


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## tBatt

chuckd said:


> I won dino green





Rightoarleft said:


> Maybe I'll see you there!


Dates? 8/14 5 day trip for us.

Another in the party got late April San Juan but I can't take time off of work then.


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## Nanko

MNichols said:


> I spent 8 years on the board of the Grand canyon private boaters association when we sued the national Park service to restart work on the Colorado River management plan. We went up against the commercial outfitters, Grand canyon River guides, and the customers gathering, the Grand canyon river runners association. I never realized just exactly how much weight these companies have, supported by their guides, and their customers, three separate stakeholder groups in Grand canyon up against the poor private boaters. It's amazing we got what we did


Thank you for your service. I’ve heard some very unfair comments from impractical idealists over the years about GCPBAs role in the CRMP negotiations. Actually it is stunning what was accomplished for private boaters in the face of entrenched money and power. Also infuriating that so much compromise was necessary. Emphasis on necessary. Some conveniently ignore that last part. 

I still think it is criminal BS that anyone is allowed to sell guaranteed access to a river with high demand. I also know this is a practically useless thought in the real world.


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## MNichols

John_in_Loveland said:


> Personally I think the "points" system on the Grand is a good start but I don't understand why they limit one to only 5 points. Why not let them keep growing? As importantly, there were rumors of a point system for the Four Rivers, but I havent heard much about that either. That seems like low hanging fruit if one wanted to change thesystem.


We decided that would be the fairest way, back in the day it was negotiation back and forth. We figured one point for every year was the most equitable way to make sure that someone got a grand permit at least every 5 years.


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## agrankin

Denied for Lodore/Green and San Juan.


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## Nanko

Redside said:


> Outfitters are not the reason you don't have a permit.


Yeah, I know. But on any river where permit demand > supply, _any_ commercial allocation is unjust. Awarding an outfitter even 1 permit lowers private odds, a further restriction of affordable access. A citizen can either accept the reduced odds of access (to a resource owned equally by all), or buy gov’t permission off the private sector at a premium. Not OK. Nothing’s going to change it, and I concede that outfitters do a lot of good. The premise is still messed up from the start, and the ends don’t justify the means.


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## Bootboy

F*ck this permit nonsense. I’m driving to B.C.

(when/if the border opens)


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## PDX Duck

One point we all seem to be missing - commercial trips enable the inexperienced to enjoy ‘their’ river. We all own a piece of this pie but for whatever circumstance or choice don’t all have the ability to see it’s wonders firsthand on our own. Commercials serve that purpose and also teach how to protect and care for it.


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## RyanMullen

San Juan permit... denied!


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## SherpaDave

jbomb said:


> If you don't want to invest 10 to $20,000, you can pay an outfitter $11000 to take your family of 4 down the MF once.


It’s not just investing $10k. It’s investing years to gain the experience to safely conduct the river trip.


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## PDX Duck

100% agree - much more than just a financial barrier to entry


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## Inoturtle

No Rogue, still holding out for the MFSR.


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## MNichols

SherpaDave said:


> It’s not just investing $10k. It’s investing years to gain the experience to safely conduct the river trip.


And don't forget about the years of liver conditioning to be able to consume enough beer to boat on a multi day trip... Talk about dedication


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## climbdenali

PDX Duck said:


> One point we all seem to be missing - commercial trips enable the inexperienced to enjoy ‘their’ river. We all own a piece of this pie but for whatever circumstance or choice don’t all have the ability to see it’s wonders firsthand on our own. Commercials serve that purpose and also teach how to protect and care for it.


I think this is an excellent point, and frankly, is the main justification for federal agencies in issuing SUA's to commercial operations. It's important that the WHOLE public has access to our public resources, and it's unrealistic to think that everyone's going to be capable of learning the skills. It's already been mentioned, but the position that Martin took that educating the public is inherent to the survival of our wild places is spot on. Outfitters play a huge role in that.



Nanko said:


> Yeah, I know. But on any river where permit demand > supply, _any_ commercial allocation is unjust. Awarding an outfitter even 1 permit lowers private odds, a further restriction of affordable access.


I think that it is pretty self-serving to conclude that access for private boaters should somehow be prioritized over all other users. The reality is that the outfitted public population is MUCH larger than the relatively small private boater community (maybe 10x more folks interested in going down rivers than have the skills to do it themselves?), and one might conclude that a 50/50 split is incredibly generous to the comparatively small private community. _Affordable_ is relative- for example, I never used to hire shuttle companies as I was time rich and cash poor. Others might be cash rich and time poor and not have the time available to invest in learning the skills.


----------



## tooley

Here's the use statistics for the Rogue last year. Some really interesting numbers in here (only 33% of private users obtained their permit thru the lottery...): https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/docs/2020-11/2020 River Use Report Short.pdf


----------



## Cambo5150

Denied on the San Juan. Did they do Deso yet?


----------



## jbomb

SherpaDave said:


> It’s not just investing $10k. It’s investing years to gain the experience to safely conduct the river trip.


Oh I forgot that must be why outfitters pay their guides the big $$$.


----------



## jbomb

PDX Duck said:


> One point we all seem to be missing - commercial trips enable the inexperienced to enjoy ‘their’ river. We all own a piece of this pie but for whatever circumstance or choice don’t all have the ability to see it’s wonders firsthand on our own. Commercials serve that purpose and also teach how to protect and care for it.


I acknowledge that commercials have a positive impact in spreading the love for rivers, but for-profit selling of a public resource isn't the only way. I think my college whitewater co-op did a fantastic job of introducing newbies to the sport and did it for ~$25 a user day, without guaranteed permits.


----------



## Nanko

climbdenali said:


> The reality is that the outfitted public population is MUCH larger than the relatively small private boater community (maybe 10x more folks interested in going down rivers than have the skills to do it themselves?),


Many good pro-outfitter arguments on here; this one is common but confusing.

Some people love to pretend that boating is some unattainable skill. It’s very elitist to claim that the rest of our fellow citizens just simply aren’t capable and require government assistance to get on the water. If you want to go down the San Juan, for example, grab some gear and do it. Next year do the Main. Or don’t, but that refusal should not be rewarded at the expense of DIYs. If you are cash rich and time poor, your life choices should make it difficult to run a lottery river. As long as there is extreme demand, the system should not be designed to accommodate your inflexibility.

Very good discussion here, and I get I’m in a small minority. I’ll bow out; good luck everyone!


----------



## tBatt

Cambo5150 said:


> Did they do Deso yet?


"Notification to lottery applicants to check results - 2/15/2021"

Idaho rivers tomorrow, Deso Monday.


----------



## RaftingDuringRecess

Anyone know what time tomorrow 4rivers notifications will be posted? Good luck everyone!!


----------



## SherpaDave

MNichols said:


> And don't forget about the years of liver conditioning to be able to consume enough beer to boat on a multi day trip... Talk about dedication


In that case go commercial. They carry way more beer than I ever do. Especially the motor Grand trips.


----------



## Flatlandr360

I was sure THIS would be my year to land the Selway. In fact, I’d already planned to take my 2021 permit, COVID defer to 2022, allowing me to use the MFS permit with my family, which I’m sure to win.
“Unfortunately...”


----------



## Bootboy

No-go for the selway 

It’s getting demoralizing

Edit: No Main Salmon either.


----------



## Flatlandr360

Unfortunately, no Snake through Hell’s (until September, but cancelled last year due to smoke...)


----------



## IDriverRunner

No MF or Dino for me. Time to check in with everyone I know and see if any of them were lucky enough to pull a permit..


----------



## John_in_Loveland

MNichols said:


> We decided that would be the fairest way, back in the day it was negotiation back and forth. We figured one point for every year was the most equitable way to make sure that someone got a grand permit at least every 5 years.


But why is the limit 5 points no matter how many years one applies? Has any one heard anything lately about a point system for the 4 rivers?


----------



## WyBackCountry

Denied on Rogue, Yampa, Selway, MF & main......all my permit hopes and dreams now lie with the Smith river lottery, that's obviously a fishing/relaxing trip though.


----------



## smiley_n_mt

The reject bin is full. Someone must have got the three remaining permits. I am happy for you! I guess I'll go camping and pick some huckleberries.


----------



## MNichols

John_in_Loveland said:


> But why is the limit 5 points no matter how many years one applies? Has any one heard anything lately about a point system for the 4 rivers?


I'll do the best I can to answer that, it's complicated, but based on the desires from the river office that nobody should wait more than 5 years at very most to obtain a permit. it's pretty much true, if you apply with five preference points you're going to get a permit, the thing is thanks to the internet, among other things, namely networking, I don't know of anybody who actually is able to apply with five points, except my wife, and we're saving her application until after this covid thing subsides. 

I'm sure there are others, and I haven't seen statistics from the lottery recently related to how many points people had when they applied, but it used to be the majority of applicants had between one and three points, but that was every bit of 10 years ago, and since I've been getting on the river pretty much every year, I haven't really much cared about the statistics like I used to.

Much of the CRMP, was dictated by Steve Sullivan and at the time Linda Jalbert in the river office, a lot of their assumptions came from the Grand canyon River trip simulator, which we all had back in the day. trips at one time, people at one time, private trips moving slower than commercials, it all figured into the mix. It was a pretty cool piece of software in its day, we played with it for hours on end trying to figure away to fit more trips on the river without creating bottlenecks at attractions, and issues finding campsites late in the day during the high season.

At the end of the day, people are getting on the river, not nearly as many as are applying, but if I can wrangle a way to go every year, chances are most people can as well.
Hope this answers your question.


----------



## WyBackCountry

MNichols said:


> I'll do the best I can to answer that, it's complicated, but based on the desires from the river office that nobody should wait more than 5 years at very most to obtain a permit. it's pretty much true, if you apply with five preference points you're going to get a permit, the thing is thanks to the internet, among other things, namely networking, I don't know of anybody who actually is able to apply with five points, except my wife, and we're saving her application until after this covid thing subsides.


I've had 5 points for the last 3 years, and did not draw a permit for 2020 or 2021, hoping 2022 is my lucky permit year!


----------



## Rightoarleft

smiley_n_mt said:


> The reject bin is full. Someone must have got the three remaining permits. I am happy for you! I guess I'll go camping and pick some huckleberries.


I'm sorry. I totally know how it feels... year after year after year. 

My answer to this growing dilemma is to gear up for shoulder season trips, and even winter trips. Drysuit, fleece, neoprene, cold weather tent and bed, insulated flask, Jetboil. 

I did the Rogue last January and despite getting drenched every morning in dew and frozen dew, it was nice seeing the river at different water levels, and having choice of camps. The dew was astonishing. 

I've also done Deschutes in January and because I was already garbed for the occasion, did a side hike to swim the White river back to the confluence. It's glacier water, 34 degrees. How many can say they've done that? Did the Owhyee in a snowstorm once too. Life is what you make it.

If you get a micro raft and learn how to run backpacker light, there a numerous rivers that open. Low water trips lack the excitement but they more than make up in solitude and serenity. 

And I've also dabbled in hike/swimming rivers. There are some absolute gems that are impossible to see by boat. Put your gear in a Watershed bag and swim it down the river! Drysuit is the key to adventure beyond winning permits. And plus one on the Huckleberries. They have stalled many a backpacking trip.


----------



## smiley_n_mt

Rightoarleft said:


> I'm sorry. I totally know how it feels... year after year after year.
> 
> My answer to this growing dilemma is to gear up for shoulder season trips, and even winter trips. Drysuit, fleece, neoprene, cold weather tent and bed, insulated flask, Jetboil.
> 
> I did the Rogue last January and despite getting drenched every morning in dew and frozen dew, it was nice seeing the river at different water levels, and having choice of camps. The dew was astonishing.
> 
> I've also done Deschutes in January and because I was already garbed for the occasion, did a side hike to swim the White river back to the confluence. It's glacier water, 34 degrees. How many can say they've done that? Did the Owhyee in a snowstorm once too. Life is what you make it.
> 
> If you get a micro raft and learn how to run backpacker light, there a numerous rivers that open. Low water trips lack the excitement but they more than make up in solitude and serenity.
> 
> And I've also dabbled in hike/swimming rivers. There are some absolute gems that are impossible to see by boat. Put your gear in a Watershed bag and swim it down the river! Drysuit is the key to adventure beyond winning permits. And plus one on the Huckleberries. They have stalled many a backpacking trip.


Yep. And we have all the gear you mention and have been these people in the past. (Rafting since 1977) As early to mid sixty somethings we still get out there but "adventure" is slowly taking a backseat to "relaxation". We know relaxation is relative and proportionate to the trip and we are still able to pack the mustard but we find ourselves seeking out a few young and strong ones to fill out our permits. Last year's MFS was a five person trip w me (ph/tl) being oldest by 10 years. 
So it goes...best of luck to you...there is always lots of day-tripping fly-fishing in MT! We are blessed to have seen and been the places we have and have thousands of river miles behind us.
We are the fortunate few to have embraced Her from the bottom of a canyon on a river.


----------



## 82371

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;
> 
> From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.
> 
> Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.
> 
> Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.


The gubment has done a fine job protecting the health of our land and our bodies... from we the lowly peeps. /s


----------



## Billy Frogg

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;
> 
> From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.
> 
> Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.
> 
> Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.





WyBackCountry said:


> I got ya beat, 9 years in a row with no lottery permit wins on anything I've applied for. I'm sure there are some out there that have me beat as well....it's all about the invites and post season for me.


I think it’s time for this shit to go to a weighted lottery. This is getting stupid.


----------



## Billy Frogg

craven_morhead said:


> Uggggg can we not with this stuff every time the topic of permits comes up?


You can not. You can not open threads titled, “...and the rejection begins,” and then act surprised at what you find.


----------



## Aerocam

Whoop!!! July 2 Main!!!


----------



## no1kobefan

Well, we’ll find out about Deso tomorrow. I’ve been rejected for everything else.


----------



## Billy Frogg

MNichols said:


> Well, if you prefer to look at it with blinders on, then yes. The only truly fair way would be to have a common pool lottery system where both private boaters and commercial customers put in for their choice of date and drew in the lottery just like private boaters do.
> 
> Commercial customers don't just bring money to the outfitters, they bring money to the towns and the businesses within the town, whole economies were built around commercial outfitters moving people down the river, not to mention that the managing agencies like the Forest service and the BLM, typically gain a huge part of their operating budget to oversee these activities from surcharges on the commercial trips. It's a huge ecosystem that starts with the commercial boaters money and brings jobs and tourism to towns that might not otherwise see it.
> 
> The managing agencies like money, the commercial companies, most of whom have been in existence for 20 to 30 years, are going to defend what they have with their last breath, the reason we don't have a common pool system.
> 
> I spent 8 years on the board of the Grand canyon private boaters association when we sued the national Park service to restart work on the Colorado River management plan. We went up against the commercial outfitters, Grand canyon River guides, and the customers gathering, the Grand canyon river runners association. I never realized just exactly how much weight these companies have, supported by their guides, and their customers, three separate stakeholder groups in Grand canyon up against the poor private boaters. It's amazing we got what we did
> 
> at the end of the day, I don't think that it's anything that we're going to be able to change in the short-term, but in the long term attrition may just take care of the problem.. or not


I’m a private boater and I spend money on those towns too. Probably more than someone buying some croakers and a tube of sunscreen.

I typically fill my tank for the shuttle service, buy a sandwich for dinner, buy all of the fresh produce and things for the week that aren’t frozen. I buy locally bundled firewood. I buy whatever else I probably forgot. On the way out I probably get a hotel for a shower and go out for Mexican food and margs. My buddies do this with me. Is this typical commercial customer behavior?


----------



## Rightoarleft

smiley_n_mt said:


> Yep. And we have all the gear you mention and have been these people in the past. (Rafting since 1977) As early to mid sixty somethings we still get out there but "adventure" is slowly taking a backseat to "relaxation". We know relaxation is relative and proportionate to the trip and we are still able to pack the mustard but we find ourselves seeking out a few young and strong ones to fill out our permits. Last year's MFS was a five person trip w me (ph/tl) being oldest by 10 years.
> So it goes...best of luck to you...there is always lots of day-tripping fly-fishing in MT! We are blessed to have seen and been the places we have and have thousands of river miles behind us.
> We are the fortunate few to have embraced Her from the bottom of a canyon on a river.


Right on. I have run most of my miles running with older groups. Now I'm becoming the older group.

I always liked running with the old guys. They have it figured out. When you're young, run with the old for wisdom. When you're old, run with the young for energy. 

We had this one guy in his late 70s who loved river and loved running oars. He was getting weak and lost the ability to read water. He started missing lines, capsizing boats and taking some pretty bad swims but he kept coming back, even for the bigwater runs. He never said, and we never asked, but it was assumed he just didn't have any interest in dying at home. For his last trip, we brought him on a 28 day run through Grand Canyon. We decided the best course was to put him in an 18 foot Avon gear boat and load it so heavy that he could take the rapids sideways and not flip. It worked until Basalt rapid. Nothing takes the hole in Basalt. He went for another long swim in a class III eddy but we got it all cleaned up and had a great trip. Some say it's foolish but I admire his priorities. The man finds life on the river. I get that.


----------



## T.O.Mac

MNichols said:


> I'll do the best I can to answer that, it's complicated, but based on the desires from the river office that nobody should wait more than 5 years at very most to obtain a permit. it's pretty much true, if you apply with five preference points you're going to get a permit, the thing is thanks to the internet, among other things, namely networking, I don't know of anybody who actually is able to apply with five points, except my wife, and we're saving her application until after this covid thing subsides.
> 
> .


I had five points for many (10) years, and never was able to draw a permit. I know that when I finally got an invite, my TL had so many points from the old system (24 years) that, in order to clear out the old system and create some consistency, was just told to pick from a list of dates. Not complaining, but I'm already back up to 3 points and no dice...anywhere!
best of luck to everyone in your quest for permits.


----------



## theusualsuspect

Rightoarleft said:


> Right on. I have run most of my miles running with older groups. Now I'm becoming the older group.
> 
> I always liked running with the old guys. They have it figured out. When you're young, run with the old for wisdom. When you're old, run with the young for energy.


I'm the younger crew but have been fortunate to be invited on trips with older people. They are generally the best trips for me. True to form I struck out but one of my much older boating acquittances got a Lodore. 

I haul whatever gear, cook whatever food, and generally just do what I'm told. They are safety conscience, eat well, and don't party until 3am. I think I need more older boating partners!


----------



## Billy Frogg

Flatlandr360 said:


> I was sure THIS would be my year to land the Selway. In fact, I’d already planned to take my 2021 permit, COVID defer to 2022, allowing me to use the MFS permit with my family, which I’m sure to win.
> “Unfortunately...”


These COVID deferrals are cheap garbage. Do the rest of the community a favor and get it over with so we can get back to normal next year and still be denied more permits!


----------



## jbomb

WyBackCountry said:


> I've had 5 points for the last 3 years, and did not draw a permit for 2020 or 2021, hoping 2022 is my lucky permit year!


Obviously it's going to heavily depend on the number of other people throwing in for your date, the odds of winning once in 5 years compared to the total number of applicant points is shown below. Basically one person applying for 5 years straight has less than a 50% chance of getting one of the summer 16 person trips which are generally 200+ total points, and even a 16 person lotto group isn't guaranteed to score one of the highly competitive September trips in 5 years...










(Chance of one win with p probability in n attempts = 1 - ( 1 - p ) ^n, the number of chances n has been multiplied by 5 to account for the 5 dates you can apply for on each main application).


----------



## WyBackCountry

jbomb said:


> Obviously it's going to heavily depend on the number of other people throwing in for your date, the odds of winning once in 5 years compared to the total number of applicant points is shown below. Basically one person applying for 5 years straight has less than a 50% chance of getting one of the summer 16 person trips which are generally 200+ total points, and even a 16 person lotto group isn't guaranteed to score one of the highly competitive September trips in 5 years...
> 
> View attachment 62713
> 
> 
> (Chance of one win with p probability in n attempts = 1 - ( 1 - p ) ^n, the number of chances n has been multiplied by 5 to account for the 5 dates you can apply for on each main application).



Great points....and what I failed to mention is that in the last 3 years lotteries, I have chosen nothing but late Sept/early Oct dates which accounts for my failure to secure a permit, so I am well aware that it's mostly my own doing in choosing the dates that I am choosing.


----------



## MNichols

Billy Frogg said:


> I’m a private boater and I spend money on those towns too. Probably more than someone buying some croakers and a tube of sunscreen.
> 
> I typically fill my tank for the shuttle service, buy a sandwich for dinner, buy all of the fresh produce and things for the week that aren’t frozen. I buy locally bundled firewood. I buy whatever else I probably forgot. On the way out I probably get a hotel for a shower and go out for Mexican food and margs. My buddies do this with me. Is this typical commercial customer behavior?


Actually, yes. I can't speak to other rivers other than my home river the Arkansas, but many of them come out here and spend a week they go rafting one day ride their mountain bicycles the next hiking the third horseback riding the 4th and who knows if they did a class 3 stretch of river, they might very well go down to the Royal gorge and try class four. We get day trippers from Denver as well, so it's really hard to say what every commercial customer does, but what they do is pay a butt load of money, and most of it stays here


----------



## John_in_Loveland

MNichols said:


> I'll do the best I can to answer that, it's complicated, but based on the desires from the river office that nobody should wait more than 5 years at very most to obtain a permit. it's pretty much true, if you apply with five preference points you're going to get a permit, the thing is thanks to the internet, among other things, namely networking, I don't know of anybody who actually is able to apply with five points, except my wife, and we're saving her application until after this covid thing subsides.
> 
> I'm sure there are others, and I haven't seen statistics from the lottery recently related to how many points people had when they applied, but it used to be the majority of applicants had between one and three points, but that was every bit of 10 years ago, and since I've been getting on the river pretty much every year, I haven't really much cared about the statistics like I used to.
> 
> Much of the CRMP, was dictated by Steve Sullivan and at the time Linda Jalbert in the river office, a lot of their assumptions came from the Grand canyon River trip simulator, which we all had back in the day. trips at one time, people at one time, private trips moving slower than commercials, it all figured into the mix. It was a pretty cool piece of software in its day, we played with it for hours on end trying to figure away to fit more trips on the river without creating bottlenecks at attractions, and issues finding campsites late in the day during the high season.
> 
> At the end of the day, people are getting on the river, not nearly as many as are applying, but if I can wrangle a way to go every year, chances are most people can as well.
> Hope this answers your question.


I've had 5 points for many years and still haven't won a permit.


----------



## MNichols

WyBackCountry said:


> I've had 5 points for the last 3 years, and did not draw a permit for 2020 or 2021, hoping 2022 is my lucky permit year!


I hope 2022 is your lucky year! I have heard before about people with five points not getting a permit on their first try but getting one on the second. But the stories are few and far between. I guess I'll find out first-hand next year when my wife applies for 2023. I personally never get a grand permit because I've always got one point lol, but as some folks below have mentioned, I look to the shoulder seasons also because it's not so damn hot down there, and not so damn cold down there...


----------



## MNichols

John_in_Loveland said:


> I've had 5 points for many years and still haven't won a permit.


send another point I'll make, sort of in a half-hearted defense to my statement, last year and one of the follow-up lotteries there were over 6,000 people applying for 66 permits... That was just for a follow-up lottery... Demand sure has increased since the CRMP was crafted over 10 years ago

I will send Good River karma your way in the hopes that you score of permit and decide to invite me lol


----------



## Billy Frogg

MNichols said:


> Actually, yes. I can't speak to other rivers other than my home river the Arkansas, but many of them come out here and spend a week they go rafting one day ride their mountain bicycles the next hiking the third horseback riding the 4th and who knows if they did a class 3 stretch of river, they might very well go down to the Royal gorge and try class four. We get day trippers from Denver as well, so it's really hard to say what every commercial customer does, but what they do is pay a butt load of money, and most of it stays here


I’m skeptical that a $70 seat for a Brown’s half-day is a “butt load.” I’m guessing those other past times probably want/deserve their share of the economic impact as well?


----------



## theusualsuspect

Plus the photo op on zoom, plus lunch, plus hotel, plus dinner, plus t shirt, plus beers at elevation, plus weed at the head shop, plus the snickers bar with the gas fill up, plus the daily fee for mt Princeton on the last half day in the valley...

when I take the family for a long weekend I rarely get off with spending less than $1k in a local economy. 

edit: Point is I probably spend 5:1 when I'm a "commercial" customer vs when I just head over to the valley with some friends for a weekend of fishing or running Browns. YMMV.


----------



## Billy Frogg

Right. See above.


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

MNichols said:


> I personally never get a grand permit because I've always got one point lol, but as some folks below have mentioned, I look to the shoulder seasons also because it's not so damn hot down there, and not so damn cold down there...


I'm in the same boat so far...but, crazily, my invite for 2022 (a deferment from 2020) scored her May 3rd permit with 1 point in a followup lottery. I looked it up, and 507 people applied for that date in the followup, and over 1800 people tried to get that date in some capacity before she landed it. My 2018 trip, funnily on the same date, the PH only had 3 points too...so its possible.

Still...I personally have never won a permit in ANY lottery, primary, followup, or otherwise. I've gotten a couple of cancellations...but thats it. I have friends who seem to win every year though...so who the hell knows. I guess I'll just consider myself lucky to have friends that seem to get lucky and invite me on trips.


----------



## BenSlaughter

Zero lottery wins for me...again.
Think I've applied for the Idaho rivers 22 of the last 24 years.
Have never won.
I think a ponts system makes the most sense.

I have done quite well with cancellation permits...

Ben


----------



## wharf-rat

Tabernack. This Canuck got denied middle and main salmon. Oh well border is still closed and my rivers don’t require permits. I will still continue to apply and anticipate my denial. Did the main in September, I loved it. I would like to get on the middle salmon in July at some point.


----------



## markhusbands

The first two years I got into rafting I got a year 1 San Juan, and year 2 Green permit, putting in for myself and wife. Great fortune in terms of permits matched to experience level. I got rejections at several others. 

The last two years I didn't get any hits. But I still went on the Green each year by invite, got permits for Hells and Deso and cancelled them for lack of interest by folks I knew, and did a fall runon Cataract, ran Dolores in good condition, plus did assorted Ruby Horsethief, Upper C, and Arkansas boating each year. 

This year...not looking good. But I have no doubt I'll do one or more permit rivers. The odds of any one person getting a particular permit are low. The odds of any one person actually being able to do some sort of classic run each season are high. And when you do the actual classic run, the camps are clean and there's no fear and loathing trying to get them.


----------



## Wallrat

Denied on the Selway. I'm so stoked! Oh, wait.


----------



## zipkruse

Feels like a points system on Four Rivers is overdue given the number of applicants... and the number of people I hear of who get to go back year after year. 
I fully believe in limited access to protect these sections. But I'd like to think there's a more equitable way to give more people a chance to see them.


----------



## ColoradoDave

Just have to note the obvious Elephant in the Living Room to all the other frogs in the hot tub ;

A person would need to be an idiot to buy an expense raft now with so much headwind growing and continuing to grow against actually using it. And when it isn't time to buy, it is obviously it is time to sell. Start looking for exits.


----------



## Wallrat

zipkruse said:


> Feels like a points system on Four Rivers is overdue given the number of applicants... and the number of people I hear of who get to go back year after year.
> I fully believe in limited access to protect these sections. But I'd like to think there's a more equitable way to give more people a chance to see them.


Post season is pretty easy to get, and I was just looking at the Main for next April...not a single reservation for the entire month as of today.


----------



## Deagol

I got my Idaho rejection email today...


----------



## Bootboy

ColoradoDave said:


> Just have to note the obvious Elephant in the Living Room to all the other frogs in the hot tub ;
> 
> A person would need to be an idiot to buy an expense raft now with so much headwind growing and continuing to grow against actually using it. And when it isn't time to buy, it is obviously it is time to sell. Start looking for exits.



There’s a hot wind beginning to blow... In more ways than one my friend. Glad to see another who is it not asleep to it.


----------



## Bootboy

wharf-rat said:


> Tabernack. This Canuck got denied middle and main salmon. Oh well border is still closed and my rivers don’t require permits. I will still continue to apply and anticipate my denial. Did the main in September, I loved it. I would like to get on the middle salmon in July at some point.


You’ve got nothing to complain about, my friend. I wish the border was open so I could run YOUR local rivers and escape the shit-show that are American permitted rivers.


----------



## PDX Duck

So wait - it was just decided that permitted rivers are ‘essentially’ closed and we should sell all of our gear?

F*ck - I knew I should have stayed in bed today!


----------



## markhusbands

PDX Duck said:


> So wait - it was just decided that permitted rivers are ‘essentially’ closed and we should just sell all of our gear?
> 
> F*ck - I knew I should have just stayed in bed today!


the hyperbole is wild


----------



## Kirby

Did not win-
San Juan
Yampa
Lodore
Rogue
MFS
Snake 
Deso

Tough year to pull one. Congrats to all who did.


----------



## no1kobefan

Missed out on Deso as well. Ugh. Maybe next year.


----------



## wharf-rat

Bootboy said:


> You’ve got nothing to complain about, my friend. I wish the border was open so I could run YOUR local rivers and escape the shit-show that are American permitted rivers.


I actually love it when i run into my American Friends on the river up here in Canuckland. That permit system is quite stressful. I understand why it is necessary and i love American rivers/ cheap beer. Its just so darn busy down there. When the border opens up drop me a line, we can run some non permitted multi day water- drinking Molsen Canadian, sipping maple syrup and wearing our toques, eh!


----------



## tBatt

Between everyone in the crew we put in roughly 100 lottery applications. Rogue, Selway, Middle, Main, Yampa, Lodore, Deso, and San Juan.

Landed with one 8/14 Lodore, one 4/20 San Juan (I can't go, D'oh!), and one 5/29 MF Salmon. Rogue 9/13 rolled from last year. 

What did we learn?
Early and late season.
Saturdays have the fewest applications of any day of the week. Monday is the busiest.
Make sure you communicate with your crew when you're available and when you're not.


----------



## MT4Runner

SherpaDave said:


> It’s not just investing $10k. It’s investing years to gain the experience to safely conduct the river trip.


We're gonna find out real quick-like. Lots of new "covid-outdoorspeople" and rec.gov sending out reminders to anyone who used rec.gov to apply for a permit, not just previous permit applicants. Will be interesting to see if more permits go unused than in past years, or if there are some real shit-show boaters.

I hope neither happens, but I'm not holding my breath, either.


----------



## Rightoarleft

tBatt said:


> Between everyone in the crew we put in roughly 100 lottery applications. Rogue, Selway, Middle, Main, Yampa, Lodore, Deso, and San Juan.
> 
> Landed with one 8/14 Lodore, one 4/20 San Juan (I can't go, D'oh!), and one 5/29 MF Salmon.


A lottery virgin in our permit party scored a launch. We were like "do you understand what you just did???"

It's for Hells Canyon. I'm not sure how hard it is to get Hells but it's the only wreck dot gov river I've never seen. I'm excited. Brand new river!


----------



## tBatt

Rightoarleft said:


> A lottery virgin in our permit party scored a launch. We were like "do you understand what you just did???"
> 
> It's for Hells Canyon. I'm not sure how hard it is to get Hells but it's the only wreck dot gov river I've never seen. I'm excited. Brand new river!


Never been either but I used to work in Wallowa County. I want to tag a post-season Hells on the way back from the Rogue trip. Lotsa miles on the road, though. Our person who won Lodore is also a river virgin.

Using the stats from last year, this is the average number of lottery applications by day of the week throughout the permit season for Middle Fork and Hell's.


















Edit: for fun I'll throw the Grand Canyon in there. These numbers are from a 4 year average, May 1 thru Sept 15.


----------



## Montana Cat 65

There are only 3 of us, my brothers and me, in our lottery pool. We all got skunked on MF, but I drew a late season MS for an 8/30 launch. 

It did take me a moment to process the "congratulations!" on the Rec.gov email header, as I had never seen that before. "This word? what does it mean?"

I would like to keep the party small, and I probably won't know until June if I'm going to be opening up a spot or 2 for new river companions.


----------



## zbaird

Full skunk, again. Really wanted to get back on the MFS this year. Been too long. Lemme know if you have spots for a pretty badass couple. LOL


----------



## MT4Runner

Rightoarleft said:


> A lottery virgin in our permit party scored a launch. We were like "do you understand what you just did???"
> 
> It's for Hells Canyon. I'm not sure how hard it is to get Hells but it's the only wreck dot gov river I've never seen. I'm excited. Brand new river!


Saweet! 2019 I invited a childhood buddy and his family to join me on the Main. He reciprocated immediately in 2020 and was the only winner in our group.

I had a dozen or so people putting in for ~6/25 Hells. Did you win it?


----------



## Anchorless

zipkruse said:


> Feels like a points system on Four Rivers is overdue given the number of applicants... and the number of people I hear of who get to go back year after year.
> I fully believe in limited access to protect these sections. But I'd like to think there's a more equitable way to give more people a chance to see them.


More people should learn to whitewater kayak. Revive a somewhat stagnant / dying sport, and get to more easily access the shoulder season pre-permit trips, and you're not limited to just a handful of rivers to overnight.


----------



## MT4Runner

Anchorless said:


> More people should learn to whitewater kayak. Revive a somewhat stagnant / dying sport, and get to more easily access the shoulder season pre-permit trips, and you're not limited to just a handful of rivers to overnight.


You shut your ho mouf! Kayaking is full. Go to car shows!


----------



## Deagol

has anyone done the jetboat shuttle up the snake river for Hell's Canyon? if so, can you comment on it (price, convenience, worth it to avoid shuttle?, etc.)
Thanks


----------



## Anchorless

MT4Runner said:


> You shut your ho mouf! Kayaking is full. Go to car shows!


Well, I actually share your sentiment - I like the relatively low number of people who whitewater kayak. But it is also killing the industry. 

People need to recognize this is a problem that isn't going to get fixed. There are only so many class 3-4 whitewater reaches that offer quality overnight potential, and it seems that there is a steadily increasing demand for those trips, and we have to continue to balance the environmental and ecological costs. We can always tinker a bit with how we issue permits, who we issue them to, and how many we issue... but those changes aren't going to realistically move the needle much.


----------



## Rightoarleft

MT4Runner said:


> Saweet! 2019 I invited a childhood buddy and his family to join me on the Main. He reciprocated immediately in 2020 and was the only winner in our group.
> 
> I had a dozen or so people putting in for ~6/25 Hells. Did you win it?


Nope, but I did win Lodore. At the top of my invite list was a group I had never met who invited me on a Yampa trip many years ago. And what a great trip it was. They needed an experienced boater. Now I'm calling them because they were awesome. 

I've had some pretty big trips call because they needed an oarsman or TL. I'm not as quick to jump in as I used to be. Stepping into unknown groups is not without risk. I had a really bad experience in GC once. I haven't run with somebody I don't know since then.


----------



## MT4Runner

I think someone else mentioned it, but there are a lot of really incredible 1-2 rivers that escape notice. Getting into dories over the past couple years has broadened my viewpoint. I'm looking forward to putting together more overnights and 3-day trips that I'd bypassed for 20 years in search of "fun" 3-4 whitewater reaches.

Those mellow reaches are going to become crowded over time as the more popular runs become even more popular, but I'd figure we've got a good 8-10 years ahead of us...so enjoy now!


----------



## MT4Runner

Deagol said:


> has anyone done the jetboat shuttle up the snake river for Hell's Canyon? if so, can you comment on it (price, convenience, worth it to avoid shuttle?, etc.)
> Thanks


Have not on Hells, but have on the Main. Figure it was about 20% more than equivalent car shuttles. Best price is if you are just under the max load for the boat, which was 4 rafts for us. If you don't fill the boat..or take two trips, cost-per-person or cost-per-boat stretches a lot higher. 

Really cool to run back over the water in a couple hours and see everything you saw over the past 5-6 days. We haven't done it frequently, but it was absolutely worth the experience to do at least once.

Also makes a difference in your personal time if your home is located closer to the put-in than to the take-out.


----------



## Deagol

thanks for your response. I guess we have decisions to make


----------



## MNichols

Anchorless said:


> More people should learn to whitewater kayak. Revive a somewhat stagnant / dying sport, and get to more easily access the shoulder season pre-permit trips, and you're not limited to just a handful of rivers to overnight.


Kayaking can be cool, I appreciate the entertainment they provide, but me being an old guy, I got something against being upside down in the water with a boat strapped to me. Besides I like to be able to stand up and stretch my legs and take a piss, open up the cooler grab a beer, things like that lol


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

Rightoarleft said:


> A lottery virgin in our permit party scored a launch. We were like "do you understand what you just did???"
> 
> It's for Hells Canyon. I'm not sure how hard it is to get Hells but it's the only wreck dot gov river I've never seen. I'm excited. Brand new river!


Someone just sent this in an email about trip planning....










Its not mega millions lottery levels of odds....but its not great. As has been the trend...each year breaks the record by significant margins.


----------



## Rightoarleft

Electric-Mayhem said:


> Someone just sent this in an email about trip planning....
> 
> View attachment 62745
> 
> 
> Its not mega millions lottery levels of odds....but its not great. As has been the trend...each year breaks the record by significant margins.


That is an entirely unsustainable trajectory. There will come a correction. Once the burden of maintaining river gear exceeds the value of using said gear, people will bail. The question becomes, how many years will people try for a permit before giving up? Will people keep a boat to use once every three years? Five years? Hard to say what will equilibrium look like.

I think it depends on location. If you live in Utah, your options are few. Most rivers are by permit only. If you live in the Pacific NW, you have lots of free river, or at least river that's easy to get... for now. 

John Day river went lottery last season. Deschutes is FCFS permit... for now. It's max capacity much of the summer. Rogue used to be pretty easy. Last couple years that is not the case. Lots of people saying it's easy to pick up cancellations and that used to be true. You have to fight for them now. If you think you are going to walk into the ranger station and pick a cancelation, you will find they don't do that anymore.

So yeah, it's a time of soul searching. It's going to become a game of commitment --are you more committed than the next guy.


----------



## Jakesktm

Unpopular view - but I am going to say it anyhow. 

ANY boat guide who facilitates a non-boaters' permit is a scab and contributes to the problem. Too many non-boaters applying to the lotteries and then wrangling guides on mountainbuzz or facebook to get them downriver. 

I haven't been down the middle fork salmon in 23 years because I refuse to guide a non boating permit holder. 

There should be a skills test at the put in for every permit holder. Rig your own boat, ferry your own boat back and forth, rig a z-drag when you get back. If you can't do that on your own, then pay a commercial company to go downriver.


----------



## Leonmajor

Jakesktm said:


> Unpopular view - but I am going to say it anyhow.
> 
> ANY boat guide who facilitates a non-boaters' permit is a scab and contributes to the problem. Too many non-boaters applying to the lotteries and then wrangling guides on mountainbuzz or facebook to get them downriver.
> 
> I haven't been down the middle fork salmon in 23 years because I refuse to guide a non boating permit holder.
> 
> There should be a skills test at the put in for every permit holder. Rig your own boat, ferry your own boat back and forth, rig a z-drag when you get back. If you can't do that on your own, then pay a commercial company to go downriver.


So your view is that my partner that doesn’t row but has been down many rivers with me can’t put in for a permit?


----------



## tBatt

Jakesktm said:


> ANY boat guide who facilitates a non-boaters' permit is a scab and contributes to the problem. Too many non-boaters applying to the lotteries and then wrangling guides on mountainbuzz or facebook to get them downriver.


My blow-up doll girlfriend has a PFD, can she apply?

Where are we meeting to demonstrate our skills? Or is it a video submission? Who's gonna watch all 150,000 applicants and decide they're competent before allowing their submission to the lottery?

Edit to add: 
If you have to do it at the put in, didn't you already win the permit?


----------



## Jakesktm

Leonmajor said:


> So your view is that my partner that doesn’t row but has been down many rivers with me can’t put in for a permit?


Correct. She goes when you get a permit because you are the skilled-boater. Neither can my partner apply for a permit because she doesn't have the skills to get downriver. She's a "non-skilled boater" even though she's been on many trips with me. If you weren't her partner, she would not be able to go. She is fortunate that you are her partner, but she hasn't taken the time necessary to develop skills to get herself downriver. If she wasn't you partner would she still apply? Mine wouldn't.

Not edited for gender bias sorry. My partner is female. Makes no difference.


----------



## Jakesktm

tBatt said:


> My blow-up doll girlfriend has a PFD, can she apply?
> 
> Where are we meeting to demonstrate our skills? Or is it a video submission? Who's gonna watch all 150,000 applicants and decide they're competent before allowing their submission to the lottery?
> 
> Edit to add:
> If you have to do it at the put in, didn't you already win the permit?


Exactly. Knowing you have to demonstrate skills at the put in will discourage many. There will still be those gamers who teach their "partners" how to ferry, set a z drag and rig a boat the day before launch - but it will show how well skilled they are (or not). It might take a season or two for word to spread that trips are getting cancelled because people still trying to game.... but within two seasons you will see permit applications cut by 200%

The point is.... you need to be a skilled boat handler to run Class 4 wilderness rivers. If you apply and can develop the skills before the launch date....awesome for you. That is who the permit is designed for - those who have the skill set and those who developed the ability to handle a class 4 wilderness river - and that is who should apply. No more gamers and scabs running other people's permits.

Out of *56,311 applicants* for the 4 rivers lottery, how many of those people were actually bona fide class 4 boat handlers?


----------



## ColoradoDave

Much as I hate the idea of additional Gov't interference, a permit should be attached to a registered boat vessel number for permitted rivers only. Any raft wanting to float a permitted river has to be registered to an owner through the current vessel registration process. Only the registered owner of that boat can apply for a permit. If they have another person interested in them taiking them down any permitted river, then that boat will have used their slot in the lottery the same as any owner taking it themself.


----------



## PDX Duck

Jakesktm said:


> Unpopular view - but I am going to say it anyhow.
> 
> ANY boat guide who facilitates a non-boaters' permit is a scab and contributes to the problem. Too many non-boaters applying to the lotteries and then wrangling guides on mountainbuzz or facebook to get them downriver.
> 
> I haven't been down the middle fork salmon in 23 years because I refuse to guide a non boating permit holder.
> 
> There should be a skills test at the put in for every permit holder. Rig your own boat, ferry your own boat back and forth, rig a z-drag when you get back. If you can't do that on your own, then pay a commercial company to go downriver.
> [/QUOTE


Popularity has nothing to do with it — this is just a plain stupid idea. Not only is it logistically impossible but how does one gain said skills when they can’t go on trips until the have these skills. 🤯


----------



## Jakesktm

ColoradoDave said:


> Much as I hate the idea of additional Gov't interference, a permit should be attached to a registered boat vessel number for permitted rivers only. Any raft wanting to float a permitted river has to be registered to an owner through the current vessel registration process. Only the registered owner of that boat can apply for a permit. If they have another person interested in them taiking them down any permitted river, then that boat will have used their slot in the lottery the same as any owner taking it themself.


 Yep I agree. Non-skilled and non-river people are guests at the behest of the boat owners and private guides. 

But honestly.... guides need to stop scabbing for the non-river peeps.


----------



## Jakesktm

PDX Duck said:


> Popularity has nothing to do with it — this is just a plain stupid idea. Not only is it logistically impossible but how does one gain said skills when they can’t go on trips until the have these skills. 🤯


 Go to guide school and pull a couple seasons on non-permitted rivers.....that easy. You don't get to have the premeire rivers out of the gate. Pay your dues like the rest of us have and then get in line.


----------



## PDX Duck

So it’s like this — Hey kid, how many professional basketball camps have you been to? Oh none huh - get off this public court you have not ‘literally’ paid your dues.

One thing has been accomplished, we have finally proven that opinions can be wrong!


----------



## Jakesktm

PDX Duck said:


> So it’s like this — Hey kid, how many professional basketball camps have you been to? Oh none huh - get off this public court you have not ‘literally’ paid your dues.
> 
> One thing has been accomplished, we have finally proven that opinions can be wrong!


Just pay a commercial outfitter. What's the problem? Or apply for a permit and get rejected at the put-in because you don't have the skillset. This isn't basketball, People drown. That isn't an opinion that's a fact. Go to guide school. Take swiftwater rescue. Take wilderness first aid. Take some people downriver under a commercial license under their insurance and don't use innocent people to get a permit you aren't qualified for and hone the skills you don't yet possess.


----------



## [email protected]

Jakesktm said:


> Go to guide school and pull a couple seasons on non-permitted rivers.....that easy. You don't get to have the premeire rivers out of the gate. Pay your dues like the rest of us have and then get in line.


Be careful what you wish for. I do not want a government official deciding rather or not you or I have paid enough dues. While you are at it why don't you wish for age limits, nothing over 45 and nothing under 21. Once you start making rules it never stops.



Jakesktm said:


> Just pay a commercial outfitter. What's the problem? Or apply for a permit and get rejected at the put-in because you don't have the skillset. This isn't basketball, People drown. That isn't an opinion that's a fact. Go to guide school. Take swiftwater rescue. Take wilderness first aid. Take some people downriver under a commercial license under their insurance and don't use people to get a permit you aren't qualified for.


People die in traffic accidents driving to a river to raft so lets only allow Commercial drives to take you to the river and home. More people die on shore rock climbing then drown on rivers I have heard, so I guess we all should be required take climbing lessons. Instead of shunning newbies I like take to the opportunity to teach them a little about rafting. Years later I still get invites from some I helped get on the river.
I always look for invites and give invites every year when I win to at least one rookie. I have made some great friends over the years that way.
To each his own, but I preferer to be proactive to increase my chances to raft, rather than to try and limit someone else.


----------



## SherpaDave

Jakesktm said:


> She's a "non-skilled boater" even though she's been on many trips with me. If you weren't her partner, she would not be able to go. She is fortunate that you are her partner, but she hasn't taken the time necessary to develop skills to get herself downriver.


There is more to a river trip than being a primary rower*. I may row but my wife does way more than her share of the work. Been that way since the kids were 6 months old. She enjoys the community, the friendships, and how much fun the kids have. She looks forward to the permit announcement every bit as much as I do. Would she have been drawn to this if we hadn’t partnered? Probably not but the list is long of things I wouldn’t have tried either.

* She’s pondering rowing her own Cat this year now that the kids are old enough to paddle their own kayaks.


----------



## climbdenali

Anybody ever consider the impact that we have all had on the exploding number of permit applications?

The Buzz has encouraged lots of folks with no skills over the years to get into rivers. Information, skills, experience all used to come slowly and sometimes painfully. Now a non-boater can get on the buzz, learn how to build the perfect rig, how to make a sick hand wash, what the process to apply is, and even what the best runs are.

Are WE the creators of the problem?

Edit: I’m not saying we should never teach others or help newcomers, but let’s do so in person, on a real level. The cheapness - or rather complete freeness -of information on the internet’s has created a DIY culture across many areas. I’m in real estate, and the sheer number of shitty diy specials I see out there is incredible. Everyone thinks they can watch a YouTube video and be ready to remodel their whole house on their own, and more often than not, it shows.


----------



## Jakesktm

Look at the number of fatal drownings from private parties in the last 10 years. It coincides with the rise in the number of applicants. 

I personally have witnessed and aided in at least two near drownings and rescues in the last few years. I am seeing boaters with no swiftwater rescue training but they have gear. No rescue vests or knives or rescue kits.

I am not advocating to limit other folks' opportunities but this is a risk management sport. And we guides are responsible for setting the bar. 

Allowing anyone to bomb down a class 4-5 river with little or no experience is irresponsible.

Recreation.gov and the USFS is complicit as well.


----------



## theusualsuspect

That isn’t a unique problem to rafting. Backcountry avalanche deaths will smash records this year (my opinion). Snowpack is sketchy but really it’s because there are massive amounts of people running out to try it. Covid, facebook/Instagram, time, stimulus checks you pick a set of culprits. The amount of people and stupidity I’ve seen this year is amazing. It’s not going to get better, and the people that have the power to do anything about it aren’t going to.


----------



## Leonmajor

Jakesktm said:


> Correct. She goes when you get a permit because you are the skilled-boater. Neither can my partner apply for a permit because she doesn't have the skills to get downriver. She's a "non-skilled boater" even though she's been on many trips with me. If you weren't her partner, she would not be able to go. She is fortunate that you are her partner, but she hasn't taken the time necessary to develop skills to get herself downriver. If she wasn't you partner would she still apply? Mine wouldn't.
> 
> Not edited for gender bias sorry. My partner is female. Makes no difference.


That is such a narrow point of view. There is so much that goes into a successful multi day trip beyond just the river navigation. 

“At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.“


----------



## Jakesktm

Leonmajor said:


> That is such a narrow point of view. There is so much that goes into a successful multi day trip beyond just the river navigation.
> 
> “At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.“


Nice insults and degrading comments. That said - I hope you have a great boating season


----------



## MT4Runner

theusualsuspect said:


> The amount of people and stupidity I’ve seen this year is amazing. It’s not going to get better, and the people that have the power to do anything about it aren’t going to.


I almost wonder if it will be used as an excuse to limit access.

"Sorry, too many people dying and we don't have the staff to deal with it, so your favorite bowl/trail/cliff/river is closed."
Add to that no personal responsibility or people able or willing to self-rescue. The Instagram crowd wants to dial 911 and have a ride back to town before their dinner reservation.




Leonmajor said:


> That is such a narrow point of view. There is so much that goes into a successful multi day trip beyond just the river navigation.


It is narrow, and while true that much goes into a successful multi day trip beyond river navigation...at its core, it is a river trip, and being able to manage the risks of a 3-4-5 wilderness river is the #1 prerequisite. Just because he touched a nerve doesn't make Jakestm wrong.


----------



## PDX Duck

No nerves touched - limiting access to majority is wrong. It is public land and should be treated as such.

Playing the safety card is lazy - if the statement was each group must have a minimum level of specific qualifications then fine and probably a fantastic idea. But it started with ‘only these people can obtain permits.’


----------



## Jakesktm

PDX Duck said:


> No nerves touched - limiting access to majority is wrong. It is public land and should be treated as such.
> 
> Playing the safety card is lazy - if the statement was each group must have a minimum level of specific qualifications then fine and probably a fantastic idea. But it started with ‘*only these people can obtain permits*.’


"I am not advocating to limit other folks' opportunities....." Repeating exactly what I said above.

As a "professional" river guide (i.e. one who gets paid to safely navigate non-boating guest downriver) - there is a primary safety optic that is slipping among the recreational boating community as clearly illustrated by increased drownings despite the number of permits issued remaining the same. So there IS that. Interpret that how you want. I see it as an indicator similar to those armchair adventurists wanting to climb Mount Everest. You cannot be prepared "enough."

That said: the number of permit applicants who are not capable is astounding. The non-boater gets a coveted permit and is now scrambling on public forums to ad-hoc throw a competent crew together. They get what they pay for. In some cases, a tragic experience.

I won't name names but I know of at least two shameless boaters on this forum (and other internet forums) who seem to make it a living trolling internet forums looking for unwilling permit holders to satisfy their need to be on the river year round. Neither of them I would consider going on a class 4-5 river trip due to safety concerns. But the newbies are none the wiser.

I digress: You are letting the lottery and permit frenzy control the sport by advocating "anyone" should be able to get a river permit. In similar fashion you will see the fuckery increase along with the degradation of safety and, more importantly, blocked access for those who put their heart, souls, time, money, and energy into becoming river guides.

All the real boaters will be in drysuits and inflatable kayaks on the Selway in October.

I'm doing the Talkeetna this year before that becomes a shit show too.

How's that for "lazy"?


----------



## PDX Duck

Enjoy the Talkeetna - have done it with an outfitter, don’t know if it rained once and was amazing!


----------



## Jakesktm

MT4Runner said:


> I almost wonder if it will be used as an excuse to limit access.
> 
> "Sorry, too many people dying and we don't have the staff to deal with it, so your favorite bowl/trail/cliff/river is closed."
> Add to that no personal responsibility or people able or willing to self-rescue. _*The Instagram crowd wants to dial 911 and have a ride back to town before their dinner reservation*_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It is narrow, and while true that much goes into a successful multi day trip beyond river navigation...at its core, it is a river trip, and being able to manage the risks of a 3-4-5 wilderness river is the #1 prerequisite. Just because he touched a nerve doesn't make Jakestm wrong.


Access is already (very) limited. What isn't limited at all, is a requirement to get that permit. Loved the comment above 😆


----------



## Pinner62

Jakesktm said:


> Just pay a commercial outfitter. What's the problem? Or apply for a permit and get rejected at the put-in because you don't have the skillset. This isn't basketball, People drown. That isn't an opinion that's a fact. Go to guide school. Take swiftwater rescue. Take wilderness first aid. Take some people downriver under a commercial license under their insurance and don't use innocent people to get a permit you aren't qualified for and hone the skills you don't yet possess.


Now you're just fear-mongering to your own selfish end. Let's not make it more dramatic than it is. Yes, people have drowned, always have, and always will, but a very small percentage. Nor is there a consistent root cause based on the permit holder not having "experience" as you describe it. You're grasping to legitimize the" I deserve this, but others don't" mentality that has always been the struggle with "locals" in your favorite tourist destination. We think we are entitled to live in cool places and do cool things.
For context, and it's unfortunate that we have to list our bona fides, but I've been a private boater since 1980, was a ww professional for about 12 years, commercial guide in the U.S. and abroad, River Ranger, and SRT instructor for several decades.


----------



## MT4Runner

It was tongue-in-cheek, but also true.

I saw way too many people focusing on their phones and not the river on the MF Flathead this summer; it was sort of disturbing. Brand new 10-ish foot long yellow wish.com raft and they had these ungodly 6' long aluminum 2-piece paddles (t-grips, not IK paddles). Dude in a tight t-shirt and $200 haircut was distractedly pumping it up with a foot pump and woman with puffy lips was gazing intently at her phone (in an area with no cell coverage). They were setting up right in the middle of the walking path. Two other couples were carrying expensive bottled water down to the raft. I hope they had fun; I didn't even know where to begin, and will probably never see them again. I smiled as I walked past them.

Conversely, saw a bunch of grubby college-ish aged people unloading a battered Hyside that they were probably the 4th owner. They had faded Americas Cup PFD's and were hurriedly trying to get their boat inflated before they were in anyone's way. They looked like me 25 years ago. Kindred souls. Loaned them my electric pump and gently advised them to pull the other direction into the unloading area so they didn't get hit by the commercial buses that roll in every 15 minutes like clockwork. They returned my pump with a beer and a smile. I'll bet they didn't have dinner reservations. I hope they had fun and hope to see them again and I'm sure I will.

We were all new boaters once. None of us were born knowing what to do. But some of us asked the silly questions and were also willing to shut up, watch, listen and learn from the people already on the river--and they were willing to teach us. We owe it to the next group even if they're more bodies on our favorite rivers. 

Sorry the Instagram crowd admittedly hits a nerve with me.


----------



## no1kobefan

Jakesktm said:


> "I am not advocating to limit other folks' opportunities....." Repeating exactly what I said above.
> 
> As a "professional" river guide (i.e. one who gets paid to safely navigate non-boating guest downriver) - there is a primary safety optic that is slipping among the recreational boating community as clearly illustrated by increased drownings despite the number of permits issued remaining the same. So there IS that. Interpret that how you want. I see it as an indicator similar to those armchair adventurists wanting to climb Mount Everest. You cannot be prepared "enough."
> 
> That said: the number of permit applicants who are not capable is astounding. The non-boater gets a coveted permit and is now scrambling on public forums to ad-hoc throw a competent crew together. They get what they pay for. In some cases, a tragic experience.
> 
> I won't name names but I know of at least two shameless boaters on this forum (and other internet forums) who seem to make it a living trolling internet forums looking for unwilling permit holders to satisfy their need to be on the river year round. Neither of them I would consider going on a class 4-5 river trip due to safety concerns. But the newbies are none the wiser.
> 
> I digress: You are letting the lottery and permit frenzy control the sport by advocating "anyone" should be able to get a river permit. In similar fashion you will see the fuckery increase along with the degradation of safety and, more importantly, blocked access for those who put their heart, souls, time, money, and energy into becoming river guides.
> 
> All the real boaters will be in drysuits and inflatable kayaks on the Selway in October.
> 
> I'm doing the Talkeetna this year before that becomes a shit show too.
> 
> How's that for "lazy"?


I guide for a company as well. Safety requirements vary from company to company. That being said, most companies do everything they can to try to avoid accidents/being sued. So we can learn something from how these companies think about safety.

For example, on private trips, I don't let people go down the river with me without wearing helmets. Lots of private boaters skip out on the helmets. That drives me crazy! Are helmets always necessary all the time? Probably not. But, if we capsize and someone hits their head on a rock, they're gonna wish they had a helmet on. I know people have all sorts of reasons for why they don't wear helmets, but after having guided with a company, the cost benefits outweigh the inconveniences. 

Another example is PFDs. I see private boaters out on the water with type III PFDs all the time. Will it get the job done? Probably. But why not get a type V with the extra flotation and pillow? We're talking 16lbs of flotation to 25lbs. That's a huge difference! I understand that a person's individual weight affects this, and some people need less flotation than others. Got it. I know that. But for me, all my friends are wearing type V. 

Again, having guided professionally with a company, I think we can learn a lot from the precautions they take to be safe.


----------



## MT4Runner

no1kobefan said:


> For example, on private trips, I don't let people go down the river with me without wearing helmets. Lots of private boaters skip out on the helmets. That drives me crazy! Are helmets always necessary all the time? Probably not. But, if we capsize and someone hits their head on a rock, they're gonna wish they had a helmet on. I know people have all sorts of reasons for why they don't wear helmets, but after having guided with a company, the cost benefits outweigh the inconveniences.
> 
> Another example is PFDs. I see private boaters out on the water with type III PFDs all the time. Will it get the job done? Probably. But why not get a type V with the extra flotation and pillow? We're talking 16lbs of flotation to 25lbs. That's a huge difference! I understand that a person's individual weight affects this, and some people need less flotation than others. Got it. I know that. But for me, all my friends are wearing type V.


Nothing drives me more nuts than seeing a commercial company with guests in helmets and the guide in a ball cap. Do as I say, not as I do. The guests want to be like the cool guide...even if the guide is wearing a nice WRSI and the guests are in a livery Protec, the guide (or private trip leader) should at least model the behavior they want their passengers to emulate. 
I've taken a lot of newbies down the Lochsa. It's hard to come up with good fitting helmets for everyone, but many of my family friends are hockey players, so I just have them wear their hockey helmets on the rio.

You make a good point about PFD's. I don't think a V is necessary in Class 2 water...but where it's aerated or has strange seamy eddylines and the river is actively sucking things down, that flotation really is a good idea. I need to add some loaner type V's to my stock.


----------



## no1kobefan

MT4Runner said:


> Nothing drives me more nuts than seeing a commercial company with guests in helmets and the guide in a ball cap. Do as I say, not as I do. The guests want to be like the cool guide...even if the guide is wearing a nice WRSI and the guests are in a livery Protec, the guide (or private trip leader) should at least model the behavior they want their passengers to emulate.
> I've taken a lot of newbies down the Lochsa. It's hard to come up with good fitting helmets for everyone, but many of my family friends are hockey players, so I just have them wear their hockey helmets on the rio.
> 
> You make a good point about PFD's. I don't think a V is necessary in Class 2 water...but where it's aerated or has strange seamy eddylines and the river is actively sucking things down, that flotation really is a good idea. I need to add some loaner type V's to my stock.


The helmet thing is a pain in the butt. I hear that. I just try to buy different sizes when I can. I have a few "universal fits" as well.

As for guides not wearing helmets, that's ridiculous. I actually think they help, so I'm glad to wear mine. Plus, my company wouldn't allow me to skip out on one.

Also, fair point about class II. Of course what I'm saying is contextual. I don't expect people to have helmets and type V on a class I float. I'm just saying that most of us are guiding on class III and up. It just seems wiser to have the best protection/equipment that we can.

ETA: Helmets can also serve a really practical point. I buy yellow helmets so I can spot people easily if they fall in the river. But if someone is a little shaky about falling out of the boat, or nervous about swimming, I'll give them a red helmet. In the unfortunate event of a dump, I'll look for the red helmet first and prioritize their safety.


----------



## Jakesktm

Pinner62 said:


> Now you're just *fear-mongering to your own selfish end*. Let's not make it more dramatic than it is. Yes, people have drowned, always have, and always will, but a very small percentage. Nor is there a consistent root cause based on the permit holder not having "experience" as you describe it. *You're grasping to legitimize the*_*" I deserve this, but others don't" mentality*_ that has always been the struggle with "locals" in your favorite tourist destination. We think we are entitled to live in cool places and do cool things.
> For context, and it's unfortunate that we have to list our bona fides, but I've been a private boater since 1980, was a ww professional for about 12 years, commercial guide in the U.S. and abroad, River Ranger, and SRT instructor for several decades.


I'm not pushing the ad-hominem attacks, just getting them from those who disagree. It's my opinion that the lottery system should be weighted and there should be some prerequisite safety requirement. That simple. 

All the other inferences about me being selfish, lazy, fear mongering, entitled, etc. speak more specifically to who you are than myself. I mean really, it isn't necessary to make a valid point.


----------



## MT4Runner

no1kobefan said:


> ETA: Helmets can also serve a really practical point. I buy yellow helmets so I can spot people easily if they fall in the river. But if someone is a little shaky about falling out of the boat, or nervous about swimming, I'll give them a red helmet. In the unfortunate event of a dump, I'll look for the red helmet first and prioritize their safety.


This is a fantastic tip.


----------



## KellyTrimming

Skunked: Middle, Main, Selway, San Juan, Lodore, Deso. Also everyone in my 7 person pool group got skunked.


----------



## Fitztom

"Sorry Mr.Powell, but unless you can show me how to properly strap down that cooler or produce some pay stubs from a commercial company I simply can't let you put in on this here Green river."

The population is only going to keep growing, and rivers are going to stay popular. My advice is get into a small boat when you can and do shoulder season trips, because it will not be long before cancellation permits that are easy to get now will be rare.


----------



## NathanH.

no1kobefan said:


> This sounds interesting, but I'm all the way in Los Angeles. That would be a major mission to drive up there with all the gear and all my people on not get on the river.


I agree, it's not the most convenient or predictable but the success rate for everyone who does it is well over 90% if that makes you feel any better. There's plenty of options for other floats in the area that would also be great, don't require a permit and with a little logistics planning would be almost as good as a back-up such as N. Umpqua.


----------



## NathanH.

Flatlandr360 said:


> ...Sure, if you happen to be in the neighborhood...
> 
> No Rogue for us so far.


The success rate is very high with a back-up option of the N. Umpqua or the Illinois, which are pretty close to the Rogue and are both really great rivers in their own right without a lottery system. So yes, if you're in the area but the chances of all three of those options falling through is really close to 0.


----------



## duct tape

Leonmajor said:


> That is such a narrow point of view. There is so much that goes into a successful multi day trip beyond just the river navigation.
> 
> “At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.“


you know, I don’t agree with much of what Jake said, but I think his response(s) are better written with more organized thought than 95% of MB posts.

jon


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

I have this feeling that most of the people who have a problem with what LeonMajor said haven't watched Billy Maddison in a while.


----------



## duct tape

Missed that one. My recollection of 90’s movies is a little fuzzy!


----------



## Deagol

on helmets: I have seen people hit their heads on the rowing frame in a flip, so it's not only about hitting rocks


----------



## theusualsuspect

Electric-Mayhem said:


> I have this feeling that most of the people who have a problem with what LeonMajor said haven't watched Billy Maddison in a while.


Yeah I loved the reference. I haven't seen Billy Madison in awhile but I almost want to watch it again having read that.


----------



## no1kobefan

NathanH. said:


> The success rate is very high with a back-up option of the N. Umpqua or the Illinois, which are pretty close to the Rogue and are both really great rivers in their own right without a lottery system. So yes, if you're in the area but the chances of all three of those options falling through is really close to 0.


This is really encouraging. If it's this high, I'd totally be open to chancing it.


----------



## no1kobefan

Deagol said:


> on helmets: I have seen people hit their heads on the rowing frame in a flip, so it's not only about hitting rocks


That's a great point! I've seen people in stern frames hit the oars and such.


----------



## MT4Runner

I'm more worried about people hitting their heads on other peoples' heads than anything else.


----------



## Aerocam

Jakesktm said:


> but within two seasons you will see permit applications cut by 200%


I'm no mathematician but not sure that's possible......

I do recognize, however, the benefits of exaggeration in any conversation regarding rafting....... "No shit! You shoulda been there!! The water was SO low! It was at least 200% less than last week!"


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## flumphboy

Skunked on 4 Rivers lottery. Fingers triple-crossed for the Smith.


----------



## Bootboy

Deagol said:


> on helmets: I have seen people hit their heads on the rowing frame in a flip, so it's not only about hitting rocks


Had a friend end up with a concussion and needing stitches after getting brained by an oar in a flip. I helmet up for rapids with even a modest chance of flipping.


----------



## Wallrat

Jakesktm said:


> Exactly. Knowing you have to demonstrate skills at the put in will discourage many. There will still be those gamers who teach their "partners" how to ferry, set a z drag and rig a boat the day before launch - but it will show how well skilled they are (or not). It might take a season or two for word to spread that trips are getting cancelled because people still trying to game.... but within two seasons you will see permit applications cut by 200%
> 
> The point is.... you need to be a skilled boat handler to run Class 4 wilderness rivers. If you apply and can develop the skills before the launch date....awesome for you. That is who the permit is designed for - those who have the skill set and those who developed the ability to handle a class 4 wilderness river - and that is who should apply. No more gamers and scabs running other people's permits.
> 
> Out of *56,311 applicants* for the 4 rivers lottery, how many of those people were actually bona fide class 4 boat handlers?


That's just _exactly _what i want! Another place where I have to get permission to go use a river that properly belongs to all of us. Please, Government, can I go for a walk? Please Government, can I float a river?


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

theusualsuspect said:


> Yeah I loved the reference. I haven't seen Billy Madison in awhile but I almost want to watch it again having read that.







No good videos with Billy's response...but he says...


----------



## MNichols

Bootboy said:


> Had a friend end up with a concussion and needing stitches after getting brained by an oar in a flip. I helmet up for rapids with even a modest chance of flipping.


I never wore a helmet until 5 years ago when the owner of CKS mentioned that he never rafts without one, showed me one he had from a flip in Crystal with a 3 inch "ding" in it, begrudgingly purchased, and wore one, flipped in the Kahuna wave, whacked my noggin HARD on the frame as I went over. When I got off that trip I went and bought him beer.. Now, I wear it anytime there's even a remote chance of flipping or getting tossed about. It's actually comfortable and the kayak visor thingie keeps the sun out of my eyes as good as a hat..


----------



## Anchorless

MT4Runner said:


> I almost wonder if it will be used as an excuse to limit access.
> 
> "Sorry, too many people dying and we don't have the staff to deal with it, so your favorite bowl/trail/cliff/river is closed."
> Add to that no personal responsibility or people able or willing to self-rescue. The Instagram crowd wants to dial 911 and have a ride back to town before their dinner reservation.


If we wait another 5 or 10 years, we'll have cell phone and internet (6G) access in every inch of the wilderness anyway, and drones that can come in and rescue any poor soul that put themselves in a bad situation. 



MT4Runner said:


> It is narrow, and while true that much goes into a successful multi day trip beyond river navigation...at its core, it is a river trip, and being able to manage the risks of a 3-4-5 wilderness river is the #1 prerequisite. Just because he touched a nerve doesn't make Jakestm wrong.


I'd be on board with restricting lottery permits to those who have passed a swiftwater course and have received a certification for doing so. Kills a few birds with one stone.


----------



## Anchorless

PDX Duck said:


> No nerves touched - limiting access to majority is wrong. It is public land and should be treated as such.


This is a problem we're already dealing with. It is the point and purpose behind lotteries for permits. National Parks deal with it. Everyone's favorite Instagram viewpoint is dealing with it. Superblooms are dealing with it.


----------



## Anchorless

Wallrat said:


> That's just _exactly _what i want! Another place where I have to get permission to go use a river that properly belongs to all of us. Please, Government, can I go for a walk? Please Government, can I float a river?


Tragedy of the commons. In a country of some 330 million people, we need some rules and management system. This should be self evident even if it flies in the face of the naive and simplistic libertarian ethos.


----------



## MT4Runner

Anchorless said:


> I'd be on board with restricting lottery permits to those who have passed a swiftwater course and have received a certification for doing so. Kills a few birds with one stone.


And the Grand has the "competent boatman" requirement. Should at least give people some pause before clicking the submit button.



> Tragedy of the commons. In a country of some 330 million people, we need some rules and management system. This should be self evident even if it flies in the face of the naive and simplistic libertarian ethos.


We have met the enemy and he is us.

Nothing surprising if you live in Seattle or Los Angeles or NYC and want to go for a hike on the weekend. Every spot within 2 hours drive already has 500 cars in the parking lot when you get there.
It's just spreading to those of us in more rural areas.

There's nothing naive or simplistic about my libertarian ethos. I believe in your rights as much as my own. My rights stop at the tip of your nose.
Nor do I advocate complete anarchy and everyone doing what they want. I do agree we need some reasonable rules and management system.


----------



## Wallrat

Anchorless said:


> Tragedy of the commons. In a country of some 330 million people, we need some rules and management system. This should be self evident even if it flies in the face of the naive and simplistic libertarian ethos.


There is nothing naive or simplistic about the idea of individual Liberty. I’m not saying that we shouldn’t have a lottery system to limit the number of users at a resource. That’s a necessary evil. But the idea of “there oughtta be a law” never ends. We all have the right to go out and recreate as we see fit, even if it’s putting us at risk. That’s as it should be.
I’d rather see the problem minimized through education, free courses, and peer pressure than another uniform wearing goon in jack boots asking for my papers. We can solve the problem amongst our selves without another “system” being created to cost us. Authority lives to create another reason to give themselves more authority.
“The bureaucracy is expanding, to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy” comes to mind.


----------



## tallboy

Not surprising...look at this thread at how many people are new members who just bought rafts. We're doomed, rafting is for the masses now. Hopefully it's high tide and all this rejection will drive river running back in the the dark and scary shadows...🙄


----------



## Jakesktm

tallboy said:


> Not surprising...look at this thread at how many people are new members who just bought rafts. We're doomed, rafting is for the masses now. Hopefully it's high tide and all this rejection will drive river running back in the the dark and scary shadows...🙄


I mentioned this in the other thread that is lamenting over access: I would venture to guess if some of our most beloved rivers were opened up more, it would facilitate the one-trip-and-over-it folks who clog up the lotteries and also give repeaters and newbies some extra trips to satisfy that itch before they move on to other adventurist pursuits. Also, it would stress the amount of real guides available to help these folks down the river and possibly discourage them. I mean how many competent boaters are available to help all 56,311 applicants (4 rivers lottery 2021) down river?? I don't believe there are that many die hard lifetime boaters amongst the masses. 

Most of these people who buy rigs and get into the sport without any real training or experience will bow out within a season or two. If they stick around, it is only because they want the proper training and experience and should be welcomed into the sport. But when the going gets real or they simply lose the passion after a season or two, most bow out and sell their rigs. I see people buying thousands of dollars in gear just for one opportunity. In the private whitewater community I see many people come around for a season or two and then disappear.

If all the rivers were common pool we would see a return to more manageable allocations and use, focusing on actual use monitoring and much less litigation. As it stands, access is virtually being blocked and seems to be getting impossible for most. That is contrary to the intent of public access and puts the allocation system at risk of being tied up in courts etc. Dams ultimately become undermined.


----------



## MT4Runner

Unfortunately I don't think there is a finite number of one-trip-and-over-it folks. There will be a brand new set each season.


----------



## tallboy

I'm packing my kayak with my gear and sticking to the unknown, unpopular, uncrowded, and most importantly unpermitted stretches of river. I'll send you guys the link to my youtube channel, don't forget to like and subscribe!


----------



## Jakesktm

MT4Runner said:


> Unfortunately I don't think there is a finite number of one-trip-and-over-it folks. There will be a brand new set each season.


I agree, but who is going to escort all these folks down the river? Opening it up allows more of the escorters to share in the responsibilities of getting folks down the river. Perhaps the escorters should be the ones who are the gatekeepers of the users? As it stands, the non-boaters are the gatekeepers. Seems backwards to me.


----------



## Jakesktm

tallboy said:


> I'm packing my kayak with my gear and sticking to the unknown, unpopular, uncrowded, and most importantly unpermitted stretches of river. I'll send you guys the link to my youtube channel, don't forget to like and subscribe!


I envy the kayakers. Truly you have so many more options. I am approaching 60 yrs old and feel it's too late to really master the skill.


----------



## MT4Runner

Some will get escorted, some will not. It's still more people competing for a finite number of permits. If you open it up, it's still not infinite unless you want to share your campsite with another 4 parties.

I'm a longtime kayaker. I'm getting into dories and going for unknown and unpopular stretches, or shoulder season on the popular spots. You could do the same in a canoe.
Key point is finding the unpopular stretches, and there are a lot of them. They aint' going to be unpopular forever, but enjoy them now.

And the Youtube and Instagram, of course. Loved tallboy's comment but ROTFLMAO when I got to that part.


----------



## Jakesktm

I hear ya MT4Runner..... I bought a mini max two years ago and enjoy turning smaller creeks and rivers into big water fun. I can even pack overnight gear in the mini and stealth camp / fish along the way.


----------



## MT4Runner

My best night of 25 or more under the stars in 2020 was in late April, frost on the tarp, nobody else but the couple I was with on the river.









This is right above a section that sees 1000 people a day in the summer, this section sees dozens a day. But for the weekend, we maybe shared 50 miles of river with 10 people.

My 13' Trib is like a mini-max for tall people, right?


----------



## Jakesktm

MT4Runner said:


> My best night of 25 or more under the stars in 2020 was in late April, frost on the tarp, nobody but the couple I was with on the river.
> 
> This is right above a section that sees 1000 people a day in the summer, this section sees dozens a day. But for the weekend, we maybe shared 50 miles of river with 10 people.
> 
> My 13' Trib is like a mini-max for tall people, right?


PERFECT!


----------



## Bootboy

tallboy said:


> I'm packing my kayak with my gear and sticking to the unknown, unpopular, uncrowded, and most importantly unpermitted stretches of river. I'll send you guys the link to my youtube channel, don't forget to like and subscribe!


So you can advertise your places of solitude to the world and create future competition for them?

Why?

I’ve never understood the compulsion to publish the places I go to get away from people.


----------



## MT4Runner

Bootboy said:


> So you can advertise your places of solitude to the world and create future competition for them?
> 
> Why?
> 
> I’ve never understood the compulsion to publish the places I go to get away from people.


I follow his YouTube channel. Mostly painting die-cast miniature figurines and talking to his cat.

I think it was meant to be sarcastic? I mean, I don't even like cats!


----------



## MNichols

MT4Runner said:


> I follow his YouTube channel. Mostly painting die-cast miniature figurines and talking to his cat.
> 
> I think it was meant to be sarcastic? I mean, I don't even like cats!


Dogs are much cooler!


----------



## climbdenali

MT4Runner said:


> There's nothing naive or simplistic about my libertarian ethos. I believe in your rights as much as my own. My rights stop at the tip of your nose.


I am all for not restricting our rights, but the tip of the nose argument comes up short in some ways when applied to safety.

“It’s my head to smash open so don’t make me wear a helmet” is a common argument, but the fact is, if I’m floating by right after your brains get bashed in, I’m going to stop to help. That affects me, my companions, and our trip. Watching (or helping) a drowning victim get pumped on affects me and my trip.

In the end, I appreciate the goal of not allowing all of our rights to be eroded by gov’t regulation, but I think personal freedoms often extend to infringing on others’ rights in ways we don’t always recognize right away.


----------



## MNichols

climbdenali said:


> I am all for not restricting our rights, but the tip of the nose argument comes up short in some ways when applied to safety.
> 
> “It’s my head to smash open so don’t make me wear a helmet” is a common argument, but the fact is, if I’m floating by right after your brains get bashed in, I’m going to stop to help. That affects me, my companions, and our trip. Watching (or helping) a drowning victim get pumped on affects me and my trip.
> 
> In the end, I appreciate the goal of not allowing all of our rights to be eroded by gov’t regulation, but I think personal freedoms often extend to infringing on others’ rights in ways we don’t always recognize right away.


Being emergency medical services all my life, I sympathize with your statement. But at the end of the day, you can't fix stupid.


----------



## Bigwaterforeveryone

I wonder if the meteoric rise in lottery applications since most agencies moved to Recreation.gov has also corresponded to a similar increase in cancellations. I put in a request to the Four Rivers folks to see if they would release that data much like they release all the other stats.


----------



## MT4Runner

climbdenali said:


> I am all for not restricting our rights, but the tip of the nose argument comes up short in some ways when applied to safety.
> 
> “It’s my head to smash open so don’t make me wear a helmet” is a common argument, but the fact is, if I’m floating by right after your brains get bashed in, I’m going to stop to help. That affects me, my companions, and our trip. Watching (or helping) a drowning victim get pumped on affects me and my trip.
> 
> In the end, I appreciate the goal of not allowing all of our rights to be eroded by gov’t regulation, but I think personal freedoms often extend to infringing on others’ rights in ways we don’t always recognize right away.


It's like the shopping cart theory.

"The shopping cart is the ultimate litmus test for whether a person is capable of self-governing, the post states. To return the shopping cart is an easy, convenient task and one which we all recognize as the correct, appropriate thing to do. To return the shopping cart is objectively right. There are no situations other than dire emergencies in which a person is not able to return their cart. Simultaneously, it is not illegal to abandon your shopping cart. Therefore the shopping cart presents itself as the apex example of whether a person will do what is right without being forced to do it."

I will put on my helmet, wear my seat belt, and put away the shopping cart because I'm not a dirt bag; I don't want you scraping my guts off the highway or wiping my brains off my frame...or putting away my cart. Not because it's specifically legal or illegal.

So to everyone who clamors for more laws, I'd contend it's our knee-jerk reaction to "do something" because a bunch of peoples' parents did a really shitty job of teaching them to simply do the right thing.
And even in the presence of those laws, the dirt bags are still going to be dirt bags and not wear seat belts, or helmets, or leave their carts next to your car. And us law-abiding polite citizens chafe just a little more under those laws that were intended to make everything just a little more smooth for the rest of us.

yeah, I get what you're saying. there's really no good answer.


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

MT4Runner said:


> It's like the shopping cart theory.
> 
> "The shopping cart is the ultimate litmus test for whether a person is capable of self-governing, the post states. To return the shopping cart is an easy, convenient task and one which we all recognize as the correct, appropriate thing to do. To return the shopping cart is objectively right. There are no situations other than dire emergencies in which a person is not able to return their cart. Simultaneously, it is not illegal to abandon your shopping cart. Therefore the shopping cart presents itself as the apex example of whether a person will do what is right without being forced to do it."
> 
> I will put on my helmet, wear my seat belt, and put away the shopping cart because I'm not a dirt bag; I don't want you scraping my guts off the highway or wiping my brains off my frame...or putting away my cart. Not because it's specifically legal or illegal.
> 
> So to everyone who clamors for more laws, I'd contend it's our knee-jerk reaction to "do something" because a bunch of peoples' parents did a really shitty job of teaching them to simply do the right thing.
> And even in the presence of those laws, the dirt bags are still going to be dirt bags and not wear seat belts, or helmets, or leave their carts next to your car. And us law-abiding polite citizens chafe just a little more under those laws that were intended to make everything just a little more smooth for the rest of us.
> 
> yeah, I get what you're saying. there's really no good answer.


What does it mean if you not only take your shopping cart in, but gather a few more that the lazy people with bad parents left in the middle of the parking lot blocking a bunch of parking spaces? Probably has something to do with my first job being a bag boy and having that be a part of my job. Our grocery stores have two sizes of cart, and people just randomly push them into the cart corral and I often feel compelled to pull them all out and sort them to make it easier for the poor kids, that are probably making $8 an hour, who have to come collect them. I could just be a really nice guy...or I might just be weird... probably both.

Anyways... being one of the guys who has never won a permit in a lottery ever... I still manage to get 60-70 days on the river every year. It seems that a lot of people feel that they need to win a lottery to do a trip... but if you have a little bit of flexibility, a bit of tolerance for differing personalities, and a good attitude... its not that hard to get on permited rivers. Call me crazy or unreasoanble but self imposing the need to get a permit yourself or only going with certain people or sizes of groups is your deal and I don't think the entire permit system needs to change to fill those particular requirements.

Don't get me wrong...I REALLY don't like Rec.gov/Booz Allen Hamilton and how they are pushing river permit applications to their entire site...seemingly to increase their profits. That permit application fee does zip, nada, zilch for the resource you are trying to use... I think there needs to be some kind of reckoning and restrictions on that. Not holding my breath for that to change, BAH seems to have most agencies over a barrel with the help of government bureaucrats and politicians.

I too would love to see the data on how that all works, specifically how many people are applying for their first ever river permit, if the cancellations match the increase in applications, and who is applying and then not accepting.

Damn...I really need to go hit the river to get over this.


----------



## MT4Runner

Electric-Mayhem said:


> What does it mean if you not only take your shopping cart in, but gather a few more that the lazy people with bad parents left in the middle of the parking lot blocking a bunch of parking spaces? Probably has something to do with my first job being a bag boy and having that be a part of my job. Our grocery stores have two sizes of cart, and people just randomly push them into the cart corral and I often feel compelled to pull them all out and sort them to make it easier for the poor kids, that are probably making $8 an hour, who have to come collect them. I could just be a really nice guy...or I might just be weird... probably both.


You sound like the kind of guy who goes on the river 60-70 nights a year with random people. Wait, what?

yeah, I too am a cart-sorter. Worked at a hardware/home center in HS and was the lowly $3.85/hr stocker.
I still like "scootering" in on carts.


----------



## MNichols

MT4Runner said:


> It's like the shopping cart theory.
> 
> "The shopping cart is the ultimate litmus test for whether a person is capable of self-governing, the post states. To return the shopping cart is an easy, convenient task and one which we all recognize as the correct, appropriate thing to do. To return the shopping cart is objectively right. There are no situations other than dire emergencies in which a person is not able to return their cart. Simultaneously, it is not illegal to abandon your shopping cart. Therefore the shopping cart presents itself as the apex example of whether a person will do what is right without being forced to do it."
> 
> I will put on my helmet, wear my seat belt, and put away the shopping cart because I'm not a dirt bag; I don't want you scraping my guts off the highway or wiping my brains off my frame...or putting away my cart. Not because it's specifically legal or illegal.
> 
> So to everyone who clamors for more laws, I'd contend it's our knee-jerk reaction to "do something" because a bunch of peoples' parents did a really shitty job of teaching them to simply do the right thing.
> And even in the presence of those laws, the dirt bags are still going to be dirt bags and not wear seat belts, or helmets, or leave their carts next to your car. And us law-abiding polite citizens chafe just a little more under those laws that were intended to make everything just a little more smooth for the rest of us.
> 
> yeah, I get what you're saying. there's really no good answer.


Well said.. spot on....


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

MT4Runner said:


> You sound like the kind of guy who goes on the river 60-70 nights a year with random people. Wait, what?
> 
> yeah, I too am a cart-sorter. Worked at a hardware/home center in HS and was the lowly $3.85/hr stocker.
> I still like "scootering" in on carts.


Used to be and still do some rando trips....but made friends on all of the rando trips and kept in touch...and now trade invites with all of them.


----------



## MNichols

Electric-Mayhem said:


> What does it mean if you not only take your shopping cart in, but gather a few more that the lazy people with bad parents left in the middle of the parking lot blocking a bunch of parking spaces? Probably has something to do with my first job being a bag boy and having that be a part of my job. Our grocery stores have two sizes of cart, and people just randomly push them into the cart corral and I often feel compelled to pull them all out and sort them to make it easier for the poor kids, that are probably making $8 an hour, who have to come collect them. I could just be a really nice guy...or I might just be weird... probably both.
> 
> Anyways... being one of the guys who has never won a permit in a lottery ever... I still manage to get 60-70 days on the river every year. It seems that a lot of people feel that they need to win a lottery to do a trip... but if you have a little bit of flexibility, a bit of tolerance for differing personalities, and a good attitude... its not that hard to get on rivers. Self imposing needing to get a permit yourself or only going with certain people or sizes of groups is your deal and I don't think the entire permit system needs to change to fill those particular requirements.
> 
> Don't get me wrong...I REALLY don't like Rec.gov/Booz Allen Hamilton and how they are pushing permits applications to their entire site...seemingly to increase their profits. That permit application fee does zip, nada, zilch for the resource you are trying to use... I think there needs to be some kind of reckoning and restrictions on that. Not holding my breath for that to change, BAH seems to have most agencies over a barrel with the help of government bureaucrats and politicians.
> 
> I too would love to see the data on how that all works, specifically how many people are applying for their first ever river permit, if the cancellations match the increase in applications, and who is applying and then not accepting.
> 
> Damn...I really need to go hit the river to get over this.


Unless I'm missing something my friend, and I may be getting old and senile but doesn't Alan Hamilton own AIRE? How does that play into all of this, and for what it's worth I fear I'm seriously missing something here


----------



## Electric-Mayhem

Booz Allen Hamilton is the current contract holder to run and administer rec dot gov.The Department of the Interior gave them $185 million dollars to revamp the site and gave them cart blanche to charge what they want for "fees" on top of that.









Booz Allen


As a consulting firm with expertise in analytics, digital, engineering, and cyber, we help businesses, government, and military organizations transform.




www.boozallen.com


----------



## MNichols

Electric-Mayhem said:


> Booz Allen Hamilton is the current contract holder to run and administer rec dot gov.The Department of the Interior gave them $185 million dollars to revamp the site and gave them cart blanche to charge what they want for "fees" on top of that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Booz Allen
> 
> 
> As a consulting firm with expertise in analytics, digital, engineering, and cyber, we help businesses, government, and military organizations transform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.boozallen.com


I see, well there ya go, learned something new already !! Thanks EM


----------



## IntrepidXJ

No, Rec.gov Doesn't Fund Public Lands


You know what’s great about Recreation.gov [1]? It’s just so dang pretty. It’s got those neat, friendly-looking calendars that let you see which campsites you can still reserve exactly 45 seconds after the permits became available and exactly 2 minutes before they’re all gone. You can view...




www.outdoorproject.com


----------



## MNichols

IntrepidXJ said:


> No, Rec.gov Doesn't Fund Public Lands
> 
> 
> You know what’s great about Recreation.gov [1]? It’s just so dang pretty. It’s got those neat, friendly-looking calendars that let you see which campsites you can still reserve exactly 45 seconds after the permits became available and exactly 2 minutes before they’re all gone. You can view...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.outdoorproject.com


Thanks, I think LOL.. 

First sentence : You know what’s great about Recreation.gov? It’s just so dang pretty 

And clunky, un-intuitive, and just a PITA to use. I suppose I don't have a problem with paying 6 bucks, but enabling easy access to a centralized permit system to the masses has resulted (at least in part) to the unavailability of permits we've all managed to score in the years before Rec.gov. 

I'm an old codger, resistant to change, but I generally seem to adopt things grudgingly at the end and deal with it. Rec.gov just leaves a bad taste in my mouth, over and over and over. What really chaps my ass, is there's a federal mandate that agencies use this system, even when it's not in their best interests.


----------



## Bigwaterforeveryone

It seems that Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) has a significant financial incentive to increase the sheer number of permit applicants. I don’t know the specifics, but when they got the contract to run Rec.gov they touted a unique contractual agreement that is transaction fee based and that the gov't agencies pay nothing. So what used to be an expense for agencies running permit lotteries, is now free (to the agency). If we look at the 4 Rivers Permit Lotteries, the number of applicants has skyrocket since they rolled out the revamped Rec.gov in late 2018. Pre-2018 grow rates were more moderate.
2017: 29,527 lottery application​2018: 30,204 lottery applications​2019: 35.874 lottery applications​2020: 43,214 lottery application​2021: 56,311 lottery applications​This trend looks great if you are BAH, but not so great for folks hoping to win the permit lottery. Seems they took strategic advantage of the fact that public land mgmt. agencies have been underfunded for years.


----------



## tallboy

Bootboy said:


> So you can advertise your places of solitude to the world and create future competition for them?
> 
> Why?
> 
> I’ve never understood the compulsion to publish the places I go to get away from people.


Perfect response. SMH


----------



## MT4Runner

Cats. You like cats.


----------



## MNichols

MT4Runner said:


> Cats. You like cats.


Nasty little feline killing machines lol


----------



## Bootboy

MNichols said:


> Nasty little feline killing machines lol


Tiny tigers that live in your house.


----------



## MNichols

Not in my house, we have lots of animals but I refuse to have anything that has to shit in the house. Years ago we tried to have cats for the hay barn, but the peregrine falcons and eagles kept eating them lol it got to the point where the humane society wouldn't give us any more cats... True story


----------



## Denray

Deagol said:


> on helmets: I have seen people hit their heads on the rowing frame in a flip, so it's not only about hitting rocks


I had a spare oar from the side or maybe one up top come flying around and whack me in the head hard. Thought it was curtains, then realized had my helmet on and immediately went into "didn't hurt, didn't hurt", ha.


----------



## Rightoarleft

Denray said:


> I had a spare oar from the side or maybe one up top come flying around and whack me in the head hard. Thought it was curtains, then realized had my helmet on and immediately went into "didn't hurt, didn't hurt", ha.


Wearing a helmet seems to make oars go for the throat shot. I got throated clean out of the boat last season. I let that oar sit outside this winter to contemplate its future decisions.


----------



## markhusbands

Bigwaterforeveryone said:


> It seems that Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) has a significant financial incentive to increase the sheer number of permit applicants. .....
> This trend looks great if you are BAH, but not so great for folks hoping to win the permit lottery. Seems they took strategic advantage of the fact that public land mgmt. agencies have been underfunded for years.


Have you ever seen any sort of marketing by Booz to suggest Booz has pushed demand for river permits? No. It's real demand, and if there is anything pushing it it's users and guide services on social media, not Booz. River permits are a rec.gov flyspeck. 90,000 campsites all over the country. That's at least some money. But it's still a flyspeck. 18 million a year for ten years? Booz has annual revenue north of 6 billion. C'mon guys. An online reservation system is not the problem.

Also, helmets are smart. No lie, the helmet posts reminded me yesterday that I should get a couple more so that there's one for each of us in my family. And so I ordered two on sale.

_you guys increased my helmet demand._


----------



## xileff

KellyTrimming said:


> Skunked: Middle, Main, Selway, San Juan, Lodore, Deso. Also everyone in my 7 person pool group got skunked.


Me too (just the Utah rivers). The river permit system is completely out of date and contributes to the scarcity mentality. You want to go on a river trip, so you don't just apply for the trip you want, you apply for EVERY trip. then, to be extra sure, you get everyone going on your trip to apply for every river. No wonder it's impossible for any of us to win a lottery.

The GC was the worst. It's still horrendous, but not the 20 year wait it used to be. I think the idea of weighting the lottery is going to have to happen on other rivers, too, and on any river where there's not the "Ultimate Life-List Experience" crap that's attached to the Grand, the policy might actually work.


----------



## xileff

panicman said:


> No yampa/Dino/san juan but hey got on Dino the last 3 years.





Nanko said:


> “If you don’t want to learn a new skill, don’t worry, the government will make sure you skip to the front of the line.”
> 
> I’ve boated with an almost-blind dude, lady in a full leg cast, many in their 70s, little kids. Where is this mythical public that “needs” outfitter service?


Us. The support of all those commercial guests is what stopped the dam building before it plugged every single western river from source to sea. Skills-for-access is absolutely the worst possible model for guaranteeing there will be rivers to run.

But I hate that I can't get permits, too!


----------



## xileff

Rightoarleft said:


> Maybe I'll see you there!
> 
> I have never won a permit in my life. I've gotten so used to rejection that it seemed stupid to check. Then... WOOHOO !!! Got Lodore !!! Happy dance !!!!
> 
> Let me tell you about my friend who, in a span of 7 years, scored TWO GC permits (one on his first try), a congruent Lodore/Deso (that's a nightmare shuttle), and TWO congruent MF/main Salmon trips. He's a good guy to know.
> 
> Clearly some of us pray to the wrong gods.


Seems like the permit systems need to be integrated so this kind of random nonsense doesn't happen.


----------



## xileff

Nanko said:


> Thank you for your service. I’ve heard some very unfair comments from impractical idealists over the years about GCPBAs role in the CRMP negotiations. Actually it is stunning what was accomplished for private boaters in the face of entrenched money and power. Also infuriating that so much compromise was necessary. Emphasis on necessary. Some conveniently ignore that last part.
> 
> I still think it is criminal BS that anyone is allowed to sell guaranteed access to a river with high demand. I also know this is a practically useless thought in the real world.


Maybe the thing to do is limit advertising? You can sell your trips, but you can't advertise. Business is endlessly rapacious--there is never a point reached where they have enough, it's the nature of the beast, and why we need regulation. If they weren't adding to the hysteria by whipping people into a frenzy, there might not be so much demand?


----------



## duct tape

markhusbands said:


> Have you ever seen any sort of marketing by Booz to suggest Booz has pushed demand for river permits? No. It's real demand, and if there is anything pushing it it's users and guide services on social media, not Booz. River permits are a rec.gov flyspeck. 90,000 campsites all over the country. That's at least some money. But it's still a flyspeck. 18 million a year for ten years? Booz has annual revenue north of 6 billion. C'mon guys. An online reservation system is not the problem.
> 
> _you guys increased my helmet demand._


I think it’s more of the bar‘s too low now. In the past you had you do your research for each river system, understand the different regs, and time schedules. It was work and easy to screw up. You needed to be in to it. I fell off of the old Grand wait list after over 10 years for forgetting to re-up one January. It was on me. Nowadays, anyone can look at some web page, or an MB post (yes we’re completely complicit) and say, that looks cool and 15 minutes later have 6 or more lottery submissions.

Plus of course, anything outdoors is hot right now with the pandemic. Look at golf. Record number of public course rounds last year.


----------



## highlander2

MT4Runner said:


> Nothing drives me more nuts than seeing a commercial company with guests in helmets and the guide in a ball cap. Do as I say, not as I do. The guests want to be like the cool guide...even if the guide is wearing a nice WRSI and the guests are in a livery Protec, the guide (or private trip leader) should at least model the behavior they want their passengers to emulate.
> I've taken a lot of newbies down the Lochsa. It's hard to come up with good fitting helmets for everyone, but many of my family friends are hockey players, so I just have them wear their hockey helmets on the rio.
> 
> You make a good point about PFD's. I don't think a V is necessary in Class 2 water...but where it's aerated or has strange seamy eddylines and the river is actively sucking things down, that flotation really is a good idea. I need to add some loaner type V's to my stock.


After several years of going down the Middle Fork Salmon and wearing my helmet for the class IV rapids this year I learned a hard lesson. Low water class III not wearing my helmet....been through this rapid several time and find myself having to go around a stuck raft. Long story short, spun, glanced a rock and I see my wife launching off the side of the boat, split second later the frame cracks me on the head, splits my head open and I bleeding like a stuck pig. I was lucky I didn't fracture my skull or was knocked unconscious. Wearing my bonnet from here on.


----------



## Rightoarleft

highlander2 said:


> After several years of going down the Middle Fork Salmon and wearing my helmet for the class IV rapids this year I learned a hard lesson. Low water class III not wearing my helmet....been through this rapid several time and find myself having to go around a stuck raft. Long story short, spun, glanced a rock and I see my wife launching off the side of the boat, split second later the frame cracks me on the head, splits my head open and I bleeding like a stuck pig. I was lucky I didn't fracture my skull or was knocked unconscious. Wearing my bonnet from here on.


Yep. I've learned over the years that rating has little to do with risk of capsize or injury. Matter of fact, I could make the case that lower class water is more hazardous because we let our guard down. I can't count how many class II near flips I've encountered thinking it's just a big riffle. And I'm thoroughly convinced that scouting is more likely to produce injury than the rapid. Poor landings, steep climbs, hopping wet boulders, poison ivy. I pretty much wear my helmet from camp to camp on small rivers, and keep it handy for big.


----------



## Deagol

the solution to all this is simple: they need to build more rivers!


----------



## MT4Runner

markhusbands said:


> Have you ever seen any sort of marketing by Booz to suggest Booz has pushed demand for river permits? No. It's real demand, and if there is anything pushing it it's users and guide services on social media, not Booz. River permits are a rec.gov flyspeck. 90,000 campsites all over the country. That's at least some money. But it's still a flyspeck. 18 million a year for ten years? *Booz has annual revenue north of 6 billion*. C'mon guys. An online reservation system is not the problem.
> 
> Also, helmets are smart. No lie, the helmet posts reminded me yesterday that I should get a couple more so that there's one for each of us in my family. And so I ordered two on sale.


Not being contrarian, just discussing....
By the numbers you posted, why do you think that an $18B company has NOT had an impact on demand for multiday trips?
I do, and I think the blog post earlier does highlight that BAH is very good at marketing, and made rivers very appealing to the Instagram crowd...campsites and their other income streams aside.



Deagol said:


> the solution to all this is simple: they need to build more rivers!


Hell, we built tens of thousands of dams, why not rivers?!!

Canals all over California, they need to make them runnable!!


----------



## Junk Show Tours

I hereby propose that we should build a river right through the middle of Lake Fowell.


----------



## markhusbands

MT4Runner said:


> By the numbers you posted, why do you think that an $18B company has NOT had an impact on demand for multiday trips?


Well, _how _did they have an effect? What exactly has Booz done to increase demand for multiday trips? I'm not denying that the transactions in terms of entering the lottery are easier than once upon a time, but that was true before the current contract to Booz started (and that's not exactly change in demand). So what has Booz done to make more people want to go on river trips?


----------



## MT4Runner

They sent a reminder email to all the people who had booked CAMPSITES, not just prior river lottery applications.

It's good business on their part. But it sucks for us.


----------



## markhusbands

So, in all seriousness, while we won't be building any more rivers, what could be done to a limited degree is allowing for the use of more camp locations or reorganizing some existing camps to accommodate more people. There are social and environmental impacts of such actions, and it provides no final fix to the shortage of these recreation opportunities relative to demand (because there isn't one), but it could marginally increase capacities for some rivers, and could be examined through agency river planning processes.


----------



## MT4Runner

In all seriousness...that's a really good solution that could work quite well on some rivers.

As an aside, rivers like the Middle and the Main probably had more of an impact from human use during the mining and homesteading days than they do today.


----------



## markhusbands

MT4Runner said:


> They sent a reminder email to all the people who had booked CAMPSITES, not just prior river lottery applications.
> 
> It's good business on their part. But it sucks for us.


I don't think that increases demand in any real way. That's just using a huge database of emails to send a notice. I personally don't think a reminder email about an upcoming lottery sent to a person that doesn't own a boat or know how to use one drives them to buy a boat and begin using rivers. But people are buying boats and deciding to use rivers because there is real, growing demand for all sorts of outdoor recreation activities. The boat and skills are the real barriers to entry, not the lottery. There you have my case, sir!

That said, I do think that lottery systems should be modified such that cancellations are restricted to initial lottery entrants, just to reduce the chaos and randomness and gaming of cancellation systems.


----------



## Bootboy

Junk Show Tours said:


> I hereby propose that we should build a river right through the middle of Lake Fowell.


That’s Floyd Dominy Reservoir to you, good sir.


----------



## Junk Show Tours

Bootboy said:


> That’s Floyd Dominy Reservoir to you, good sir.


Once we turn it into a river we can call it Glen Canyon.


----------



## NathanH.

Also, correct my if I am wrong for those really hoping to get on the Main Salmon, you can start your trip on the S. Fork of the Salmon, which doesn't have a lottery system and then float onto the main without a lotteried permit legally. Yes the water is more challenging on the S. Fork but if you're up to the water it's the easiest way to go.


----------



## MT4Runner

You can also run the Lower salmon starting at Vinegar and run all the way to Heller without a permit ~130 miles
(July or later so you're not running Slide at peak flows...only crazy people would try that)


----------



## Anchorless

Wallrat said:


> There is nothing naive or simplistic about the idea of individual Liberty. I’m not saying that we shouldn’t have a lottery system to limit the number of users at a resource. That’s a necessary evil. But the idea of “there oughtta be a law” never ends. We all have the right to go out and recreate as we see fit, even if it’s putting us at risk. That’s as it should be.
> I’d rather see the problem minimized through education, free courses, and peer pressure than another uniform wearing goon in jack boots asking for my papers. We can solve the problem amongst our selves without another “system” being created to cost us. Authority lives to create another reason to give themselves more authority.
> “The bureaucracy is expanding, to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy” comes to mind.


I mean, this is the type of naive and simplistic crap I'm talking about. It's just a talking point and rhetoric. 

We have a public process for creating laws. We have the ability to review administrative process. Rules and laws aren't made in a void, and certainly not just for its own sake. 

The bureaucracy expands because our population is expanding, our impacts are expanding, our conflicts are expanding. Bureaucracy is a necessary evil to control or mitigate those conflicts and those impacts. 

We see it play out in real time all around us. Look at Texas and what a deregulated energy system has caused. So now everyone is pointing the finger at government and asking "where were you and why weren't you there for us?" Guess what the result will be: more regulation, more laws, more bureaucracy. 

I see the same thing playing out in my city. Miles and miles of public access trails that are lightly managed. The only "rules," per se, is pick up your mess and don't go on muddy or wet trails. Well, our population is expanding and because of that trail use is increasing, and now we have hundreds of dummies who don't know or don't abide by the rules, and so our trails are getting destroyed. Guess what the result will be: more regulation and more bureaucracy. 

People are idiots and will almost always do the wrong thing, so we have, collectively, a government of idiots to try and reign that idiocy in just a bit. Libertarianism doesn't work, and its just an excuse for cranky old white dudes to kvetch about their "freedumbs" and crap. As if we're so oppressed.


----------



## Anchorless

MNichols said:


> Being emergency medical services all my life, I sympathize with your statement. But at the end of the day, you can't fix stupid.


No, but that's what the court system is for. Victims or their families will sue everyone and anyone they can. Businesses, organizations, government, even individuals will change their behavior not because it necessarily the right thing to do, but to avoid the risk of litigation.


----------



## [email protected]

markhusbands said:


> I don't think that increases demand in any real way. That's just using a huge database of emails to send a notice. I personally don't think a reminder email about an upcoming lottery sent to a person that doesn't own a boat or know how to use one drives them to buy a boat and begin using rivers. But people are buying boats and deciding to use rivers because there is real, growing demand for all sorts of outdoor recreation activities. The boat and skills are the real barriers to entry, not the lottery. There you have my case, sir!
> 
> That said, I do think that lottery systems should be modified such that cancellations are restricted to initial lottery entrants, just to reduce the chaos and randomness and gaming of cancellation systems.


I wish to disagree with you on the cancellations are restricted to initial lottery entrants modification. At this point and time I only apply for the trips with dates I really want (I'm not rich). Then later search for cancelations on most any river that will fit my schedule to raft when I do not win. So instead of applying to every lottery I just do a few favorites. If I could not pick up cancelations on rivers I did not apply for originally than I would be forced to spend more money than I really can afford on the lotteries to begin with.


----------



## MT4Runner

Anchorless said:


> I mean, this is the type of naive and simplistic crap I'm talking about. It's just a talking point and rhetoric.
> 
> We have a public process for creating laws. We have the ability to review administrative process. Rules and laws aren't made in a void, and certainly not just for its own sake.
> 
> The bureaucracy expands because our population is expanding, our impacts are expanding, our conflicts are expanding. Bureaucracy is a necessary evil to control or mitigate those conflicts and those impacts.


I would also argue that our government is wholly out of touch with the people it is supposed to be serving and that bureaucracy grows out of proportion with the rate of expansion of our population.



> People are idiots and will almost always do the wrong thing, so we have, collectively, a government of idiots to try and reign that idiocy in just a bit. Libertarianism doesn't work, and its just an excuse for cranky old white dudes to kvetch about their "freedumbs" and crap. As if we're so oppressed.


And more than a few idiots go into "public service" and promulgate laws for the government. Who reins in the government idiocy?

I'm all for social services and helping those who cannot help themselves, but I'd rather see those decisions go through my state capitol (or better yet my County) and have a more direct and substantial impact on the people who need help rather than it flowing through myriad faceless bureaucrats and very little trickling down to the people in need.


----------



## Wallrat

MNichols said:


> Nasty little feline killing machines lol


My dog eats cats. A nasty little canine killing machine.


----------



## Wallrat

xileff said:


> Me too (just the Utah rivers). The river permit system is completely out of date and contributes to the scarcity mentality. You want to go on a river trip, so you don't just apply for the trip you want, you apply for EVERY trip. then, to be extra sure, you get everyone going on your trip to apply for every river. No wonder it's impossible for any of us to win a lottery.
> 
> The GC was the worst. It's still horrendous, but not the 20 year wait it used to be. I think the idea of weighting the lottery is going to have to happen on other rivers, too, and on any river where there's not the "Ultimate Life-List Experience" crap that's attached to the Grand, the policy might actually work.


That’s exactly what we did. Everyone applied, the dog, the cat, the horses...everyone . And all denied.


----------



## MNichols

Anchorless said:


> No, but that's what the court system is for. Victims or their families will sue everyone and anyone they can. Businesses, organizations, government, even individuals will change their behavior not because it necessarily the right thing to do, but to avoid the risk of litigation.


I'll certainly admit we live in a litigious society, but you still can't fix stupid...


----------



## Deagol

Libertarianism works well when there are almost no people coming into frequent contact with one another. But in a crowded City, not so much. It's working fine on Mars for the time being...


----------



## markhusbands

[email protected] said:


> I wish to disagree with you on the cancellations are restricted to initial lottery entrants modification. At this point and time I only apply for the trips with dates I really want (I'm not rich). Then later search for cancelations on most any river that will fit my schedule to raft when I do not win. So instead of applying to every lottery I just do a few favorites. If I could not pick up cancelations on rivers I did not apply for originally than I would be forced to spend more money than I really can afford on the lotteries to begin with.


I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool. 

Honestly, what raises your odds best is having friends who will invite you. Odds are low for any one person, but when one person gets it 15, 20, 25 people get to go on that one person's trip. I mean, how many lottery rivers have you gone on over the last 10 years compared to actual lottery hits?


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## MT4Runner

I like the GC's cancellation follow up lottery...if you already put in on the initial lottery, you don't pay again.


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## Bigwaterforeveryone

markhusbands said:


> Have you ever seen any sort of marketing by Booz to suggest Booz has pushed demand for river permits? No. It's real demand, and if there is anything pushing it it's users and guide services on social media, not Booz. River permits are a rec.gov flyspeck. 90,000 campsites all over the country. That's at least some money. But it's still a flyspeck. 18 million a year for ten years? Booz has annual revenue north of 6 billion. C'mon guys. An online reservation system is not the problem.
> 
> Also, helmets are smart. No lie, the helmet posts reminded me yesterday that I should get a couple more so that there's one for each of us in my family. And so I ordered two on sale.
> 
> _you guys increased my helmet demand._


I think the revamped Rec.gov platform itself, with the consolidation of nearly all river permit lotteries into a relatively easy to use online shopping environment, is a driver for the significant increase in demand for permit applications. I think they made it so that nearly every river person is now applying for all the rivers, since they don’t have to find the correct BLM or FS webpage, download the application and mail it in. Plus the looky loos from all over are jumping in because it only cost $6 to dream. I'd be willing to bet that other awesome places (Yosemite, So. Utah, etc) have seen steep increases in applicants just because it is just a mouse click away. BAH happened to be the one that did it, but it was inevitable.


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## Electric-Mayhem

markhusbands said:


> I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool.


If you are going that far... why not just make it so that, if someone cancels or doesn't accept the date, they take everyone who also applied for that date in the lottery and randomly draw one of them and offer it to them? If that person doesn't take it...then so on down the list. That seems like a fair an equitable way to make sure people who entered a lottery get a better chance.

I know more then a few people who have talked about having a "sniping script" that allows people to do in miliseconds what it takes a normal human with a mouse and keyboard 10-30 seconds. Allowing other lottery applicants first chance would eliminate that. I guess BAH wouldn't get even more $6 permit apps in a cancellation lottery if they went that way though.

To your previous point... it seems pretty obvious to me that having river permits prominently displayed on the front page of Rec dot suck, sending emails out advertising them, and making it VERY easy for people to apply will increase demand for permits. I've seen plenty of posts here and on facebook from people who got a permit, don't have any river runner friends and are posting to find info on how it all works. I'd say that is a small proportion of inexperienced river permit holders. Put some pretty pictures up, make it seem like an adventure, and people will come. I mean... if you read an article and saw how pretty the MFS is complete with hot springs... I'd probably consider applying too.

Its pretty obvious that running rivers is becoming more popular. Historically, it has been mostly comprised of people nearing retirement and their families plus a few weirdo dirtbag types living the river rat life. That is obviously a generalization, but even in the last few years I've seen a lot more groups in the 20-30 year old range getting out on permitted rivers. Priorities have change a lot in the last decade and it seems people are prioritizing getting out on rivers over staying home and working all the time.

When was the last time that you heard of a corporation like BAH not trying to drive profits harder? You don't become a company with a $6 billion annual revenue by saying no to $18 million a year plus all the permit fees you can drive demand for. Maybe its not a huge number, but its at least part of the factor of more permits being applied for every year.


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## Nanko

Electric-Mayhem said:


> If you are going that far... why not just make it so that, if someone cancels or doesn't accept the date, they take everyone who also applied for that date in the lottery and randomly draw one of them and offer it to them? If that person doesn't take it...then so on down the list. That seems like a fair an equitable way to make sure people who entered a lottery get a better chance.


I’d be unlikely to ever get another lottery run. But that doesn’t make you wrong.


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## Pinchecharlie

0-6


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## [email protected]

markhusbands said:


> I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool.
> 
> Honestly, what raises your odds best is having friends who will invite you. Odds are low for any one person, but when one person gets it 15, 20, 25 people get to go on that one person's trip. I mean, how many lottery rivers have you gone on over the last 10 years compared to actual lottery hits?


Twenty six lottery river trips, five won by me. Ten by picking up a cancelation and 11 by invite from a winner. I do very well at picking up cancelations do to being a very persistent and determined guy.


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## theusualsuspect

Never have won. Go on lottery trips every year. Go figure.


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## markhusbands

theusualsuspect said:


> Never have won. Go on lottery trips every year. Go figure.


Uh, actual river nights are a little bit scarce, and are getting scarcer as more people join the sport, but still aren't _nearly_ as scarce as winning lottery entries?


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## WyBackCountry

And just got my denial on the Smith...


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## theusualsuspect

@WyBackCountry Did you get an email denial? I know the website says they only notify winners of the lottery and I haven't gotten a denial email for that yet. Just curious. I can't remember what they usually do or if they changed that notification system in the last couple years.


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## WyBackCountry

theusualsuspect said:


> @WyBackCountry Did you get an email denial? I know the website says they only notify winners of the lottery and I haven't gotten a denial email for that yet. Just curious. I can't remember what they usually do or if they changed that notification system in the last couple years.


logged into my MT fwp account to check my results


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## mtgreenheads

Denied as well. At least it's a clean sweep on all permits now!


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## Redside

5/30 Smith!


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## WyBackCountry

Redside said:


> 5/30 Smith!


Awesome, good for you glad someone got lucky although I’m jelly


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## MNichols

WyBackCountry said:


> Awesome, good for you glad someone got lucky although I’m jelly


Must be jelly cause Jam don't shake like that LOLOLOL


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## theusualsuspect

markhusbands said:


> Uh, actual river nights are a little bit scarce, and are getting scarcer as more people join the sport, but still aren't _nearly_ as scarce as winning lottery entries?


Sorry I'm not sure I quite follow. I was mostly tongue in cheek adding onto Bighorn. My point was I feel the powers of losing but still find cancellations or a group needing an extra degenerate rafter at least once a year. Even if it is an easy overnight like WW.


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## MT4Runner

Redside said:


> 5/30 Smith!


You're either going to have 75°F and sunny...or snow...or both! Have a great trip!


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## [email protected]

No wins for me this year, but one invite from a guy I did not know but invited him on a Deso trip 3 years ago. This will be the 4th trip we have done together since then. He never talks politics and always brings a girl with a beautiful smile that can cook better than him. Perfect rafting buddy IMHO.
Man am I going to miss the smith this year 😥


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## [email protected]

Redside said:


> 5/30 Smith!


Take $5 and a bottle of chocolate flavored stout beer for a beer float at the Heaven on Earth Ranch or an great home made ice cream sandwich.
If you need a couple of people that can cook, Has gear and can get along well, e-mail me.


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## Electric-Mayhem

theusualsuspect said:


> Sorry I'm not sure I quite follow. I was mostly tongue in cheek adding onto Bighorn. My point was I feel the powers of losing but still find cancellations or a group needing an extra degenerate rafter at least once a year. Even if it is an easy overnight like WW.


I feel like I've said it a few times already in this thread.... but if you have some flexibility in schedule, tolerance for different personalities and something to add to a trip... then there are plenty of opportunities to get on a permitted multi-day. Every one of my REALLY good rafting friends were all met on a river trip where I didn't know anyone but the TL was looking for people are was gracious enough to let a stranger tag along. I've gone on a Grand Canyon trip every year for the last 5 years with this mentality. On three of those trips, I had never met anyone before showing up for the trip. On one, I knew a few people (highest drama GC trip I've been on) and another I brought a friend along but hadn't met anyone else before a meet and greet a couple weeks before the trip. Similar stories with Lodore, Yampa, Westwater, MFS and Main Salmon, Salt and other trips.

So...I guess that is my way of saying that you don't need to win a lottery and have your own permit to get out on trips. I don't feel like I'm all that special to be getting them other then having the time to do it.... but between now and the first week of July I have invites on Westwater, Deso, an early May Middle Fork Salmon and a Grand Canyon. Someone will probably tell me to blow a goat... but I have the unenviable task of having to decide whether to go on a Selway trip or an all Dories Main and Lower Salmon trip that both launch the same day... I know...woe is me 

I know its not for everyone and even I am a little more picky now that I have a few different groups of solid friends that invite me on stuff and(I them)... but I figure you only live once...so why not go boating. Turns out that river runners are almost universally awesome people (don't read the other super long thread on the buzz right now)...so why not go try and meet them.


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## wack

Redside said:


> 5/30 Smith!


I also envy you. I requested the 31st. I have gear, can cook, and bring killer cocktails, and have a fishing frame for my 16er.


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## WyBackCountry

I guess 2022 is going to follow suit as I just got my rejection email for 22 GC permit.


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## Easy Tiger

WyBackCountry said:


> I guess 2022 is going to follow suit as I just got my rejection email for 22 GC permit.


Same here... 0 for 14 at our household.


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## Wallrat

WyBackCountry said:


> I guess 2022 is going to follow suit as I just got my rejection email for 22 GC permit.


This was my first application for the Grand... I just got the email telling me I won. March 31, Lees Ferry. I can’t believe it!


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## [email protected]

Wallrat said:


> This was my first application for the Grand... I just got the email telling me I won. March 31, Lees Ferry. I can’t believe it!


I did a late March to April 22nd a few years back. I hope you get as lucky as I did on weather, it was perfect. Got mine the first time put in for one also.. Congrats to you.


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## Wallrat

[email protected] said:


> I did a late March to April 22nd a few years back. I hope you get as lucky as I did on weather, it was perfect. Got mine the first time put in for one also.. Congrats to you.


Stoked doesn’t begin to describe how I feel right now!


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## tBatt

0/4 Grand Canyon


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## MNichols

Wallrat said:


> Stoked doesn’t begin to describe how I feel right now!


And on the not stoked side of things :
Thank you for submitting a lottery application for a calendar year 2022 Grand Canyon noncommercial launch date. Unfortunately, you did not win. This is in regard to your application with the name M Nichols's Grand Canyon River Trip.

Congrats to you Wallrat !! It's the perfect time of year to go IMHO


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## Deagol

congrats wallrat..


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## MNichols

Got my "sorry but you did not win" notice from GC in the follow up lottery yesterday..


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## WyBackCountry

MNichols said:


> Got my "sorry but you did not win" notice from GC in the follow up lottery yesterday..


Kinda like getting kicked in the nuts, isn't it?


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## MNichols

WyBackCountry said:


> Kinda like getting kicked in the nuts, isn't it?


Repeatedly.. Since the lottery, which I advocated for, I have applied without fail for main lottery, and every follow up lottery even if the dates were not exactly to my liking, figuring any time in GC is better than no time, and each lottery, here comes the boot..

No matter though, I still go most every year, and it's way better than the waiting list..


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## tBatt

Who picked up a Deso this morning? Tons of them available, they were all gone in the 30 seconds it took me to realize I wasn't logged in to my account.

Better luck tomorrow.


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## Quiggle

tBatt said:


> Who picked up a Deso this morning? Tons of them available, they were all gone in the 30 seconds it took me to realize I wasn't logged in to my account.
> 
> Better luck tomorrow.


 I tried real hard but couldn't get it into my cart before it was gone. I found it interesting though that both launch dates my group of 10 applied for were available this morning.


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## TJP

tBatt said:


> Who picked up a Deso this morning? Tons of them available, they were all gone in the 30 seconds it took me to realize I wasn't logged in to my account.
> 
> Better luck tomorrow.


I did the same thing; wasn't logged on and missed out. Need to make a pre-flight check list for permit day!


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## panicman

I was able to grab one. Basically the exact date I won in the lottery last year.


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## tBatt

panicman said:


> I was able to grab one. Basically the exact date I won in the lottery last year.


Curious, were you logged out of your account as well and just smart enough to check before the panic?


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## panicman

tBatt said:


> Curious, were you logged out of your account as well and just smart enough to check before the panic?


i was logged in and clicking when the clock turned to 8:00. Luck and a fast connection I guess.


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## MNichols

panicman said:


> i was logged in and clicking when the clock turned to 8:00. Luck and a fast connection I guess.


I'd go buy a lottery ticket if I were you lol


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## Nanko

Amazing how popular Deso (I guess everything?) got in just 1 season. I feel really lucky to get any tag whereas in prior years I had a few minutes to be picky about dates.


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## MNichols

Ain't it the truth, I used to go for late season deso cancellations, in October, but even those dates are all taken up now


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## MT4Runner

Nanko said:


> Amazing how popular Deso (I guess everything?) got in just 1 season. I feel really lucky to get any tag whereas in prior years I had a few minutes to be picky about dates.


I feel like the Main Salmon was like that this year. NOBODY I know got a regular lottery draw.

MFS and Selway have been hard to get for years.


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## MNichols

MT4Runner said:


> I feel like the Main Salmon was like that this year. NOBODY I know got a regular lottery draw.
> 
> MFS and Selway have been hard to get for years.


That being said, the selway has 61 private permits a year...

I didn't put in for the main, I put in for the selway and as usual. I gave up putting on for the middle fork after 28 years of rejection letters


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## Pinchecharlie

Damnit! I get jack doodly!! Dude said ," if your willing to make new friends, have something to offer, theres allways a trip " well....iam willing and kinda able and have $hit tons of gear and make new friends every day!!! I wanna go with you guys lol!!


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## mtgreenheads

And the San Juan permits we were hunting disappeared by 0802....


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## tBatt

MFS gone in <5 seconds.


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## IDriverRunner

tBatt said:


> MFS gone in <5 seconds.


Yep, that was fast. I blinked and they were all gone.


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## MNichols

Some coder needs to write us an algorithm for wreck.gov so we can score all the permits.. Surely there has to be a way to game the system ?


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## agrankin

Managed to pick up an August 4 upper San Juan permit this morning. Here's to hoping the snow pack catches up this spring and the monsoons are substantial!


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## Thrillhouse16

ERROR DATE NOT AVAILABLE


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## Thrillhouse16

ERROR TOO MANY USERS HAVE SELECTED THIS DATE


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## Electric-Mayhem

Pinchecharlie said:


> Damnit! I get jack doodly!! Dude said ," if your willing to make new friends, have something to offer, theres allways a trip " well....iam willing and kinda able and have $hit tons of gear and make new friends every day!!! I wanna go with you guys lol!!


Rome wasn't built in a day... it starts with the first random invite you score and builds from there. 




MNichols said:


> Some coder needs to write us an algorithm for wreck.gov so we can score all the permits.. Surely there has to be a way to game the system ?


Found this with a random search the other day... webrender/campsite-checker

Seems like someone with a modicum of coding ability could make an automated script that could do 1000 attempts in the time it would take a human to try once.


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## MNichols

Nice, so someone is thinking like we are. Wish I had coding abilities..


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## Electric-Mayhem

Yeah...but that stuff is at least part of the reason it only takes 5 seconds for all the permits to get sucked up. Shear numbers take care of the rest.

I guess leveling the playing field sounds nice though. Seems like it would make one feel kinda slimy gaming the system that way though.


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## MHowell

Remember that this year, agencies are carrying over permits deferred from last year due to covid-19.


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## MNichols

MHowell said:


> Remember that this year, agencies are carrying over permits deferred from last year due to covid-19.


True that, but it shouldn't affect the pool of permits that wreck.gov already has to hand out. Just makes that pool a little smaller


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## Thrillhouse16

Yea seems that your chances are equal to actually winning a permit in the lottery as they are playing the clickity click click click game. Man it is so heartbreaking to have that moment when its says its loading after you clicked on it only to have the Error message pop up. I remember a couple years back , some people admitted to calling rec.gov before the 8am release time and found a compliant operator who would just snag them the permit before it went live to us underlings. I’m sure they cleared up that issue....


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## Pinchecharlie

Think the code things not far off. Lady at work has one for camp sites and forest service cabins. It gives her an alert on her phone of cancelations and she puts in what days she wants ect. So eventually it will be the clever algorithm dudes with the most success. Sucks though for guys like me who are on the verge of being competent multi day guys lol. I was all butthurt and fired up to pay to play and just hire a trip but with the whole family it was gonna be 10kish so blah! Dad allways used to say, " if its beautiful...wave good bye to it." just like you old guys must feel when you just drove down and went when you felt like it. Or how you had to wait in the car park for someone to paddle out at big pipeline. First world problems lol!


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## alaskagirl4ever

ColoradoDave said:


> From the perspective of any one individual citizen / US public landowner with rights inherently implied through taxation ;
> 
> From being completely free to run whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted to denial to run almost everything you want to, or only when it is allowed in such a historically short amount of time, relatively, is ludacris, and should be universally unacceptable.
> 
> Understand this, or join the other frogs in the ever heating water towards eventual extinction.
> 
> Pretty soon only the self imposed elites or the people who pay self imposed elites will be able to run rivers.


it's almost like trying to ski in Colorado these days as a local. If I get lucky to get a pass (limited due to COVID), then I've got to pay $150-$250 for that day pass per person. How the hell is a family of 4 able to afford that. It won't be long before skiing is only for the elite as well. (that said, I am able to still find some free rivers in Colorado to raft.)


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## Pinchecharlie

What allways freaks me out...is how so many people can afford to do it!


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