# San Juan River Flow Forecast 2021



## rsoares (Mar 2, 2016)

Morning All, 
Looking for some assistance in interpreting the flow forecast for the San Juan River...specifically the first week in July (July 2-7, 2021). I see the report on April 8th, but not seeing the updated info from the meeting on April 20th. I have a permit for that time period and trying to figure out if its even possible based on the forecast. I've run it as low as 700, not ideal but also not a problem. 

Any assistance would be appreciated. 

Thanks!


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## New2H2O1974 (Aug 23, 2017)

Currently near Bluff it's at 670 as of 42 minutes ago.


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## kewilliam1 (Mar 7, 2017)

Rsoares, if you are considering cancelling your permit, I would take it off your hands for you. We would pre-arrange a time to cancel it on rec.gov and then I could claim it after you cancel. Let me know if you're interested. Thanks!


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## eddyprice (Jun 1, 2009)

Like you I had run it as low as about 700 previously. I just got off a Mexican Hat to Clay Hills trip with 500cfs and it was fine. Two 14' rafts & a ducky, 5 people, standard loads for us, not light - personal gear ~25 gallons of water. No problem with the low flow in the rapids. There were 5-6 times getting out below Grand Gulch to walk the rafts to avoid sand bars and stay in the deeper channels. Clay Hills take out required getting out to move the rafts to the "ramp" but no struggles. I've got a new reference for low water on the SJ.


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## Heywood (Apr 12, 2019)

eddyprice said:


> Like you I had run it as low as about 700 previously. I just got off a Mexican Hat to Clay Hills trip with 500cfs and it was fine. Two 14' rafts & a ducky, 5 people, standard loads for us, not light - personal gear ~25 gallons of water. No problem with the low flow in the rapids. There were 5-6 times getting out below Grand Gulch to walk the rafts to avoid sand bars and stay in the deeper channels. Clay Hills take out required getting out to move the rafts to the "ramp" but no struggles. I've got a new reference for low water on the SJ.


shhhhhhhhhhhhh!

The San Juan is virtually unrunnable below 1000 cfs. There are still trips pinned in Government from last year.


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## rsoares (Mar 2, 2016)

eddyprice said:


> Like you I had run it as low as about 700 previously. I just got off a Mexican Hat to Clay Hills trip with 500cfs and it was fine. Two 14' rafts & a ducky, 5 people, standard loads for us, not light - personal gear ~25 gallons of water. No problem with the low flow in the rapids. There were 5-6 times getting out below Grand Gulch to walk the rafts to avoid sand bars and stay in the deeper channels. Clay Hills take out required getting out to move the rafts to the "ramp" but no struggles. I've got a new reference for low water on the SJ.


How was Government at 500cfs? Our group would have a 13ft and 16ft...


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## IDJimbo99 (May 2, 2021)

I just joined.
We just got off a 9 day trip from Sand Island to Clay Hills also. We had a 16ft Maravia, 18 ft Avon, and 15 ft Sotar. In looking at the USGS gauge after the trip, I noticed that we ran Gubmit at 500 cfs and it got as low as 350cfs btwn Sand Hills and Mexican Hat. No clean run at Gubmit at 500 cfs level; you have to run center and pull against current to avoid two pinning obstacles.

After watching an outfitter pinning their 18 ft raft on the center rock, we portaged our 18 ft. I got pinned for 30 mins in my 16ft and had to use a Z-drag to get off. The 15 ft squirted through OK.

Below Grande Gulch it was a nightmare reading channels and pulling our big rafts through the shallows.

No water in any side canyons except for Grand Gulch, which had a few shallow, scummy pools.

If I had to do it again, we would go with 14ft rafts and duckies and do backpacking style loads.

My 2 cents,
Jim


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## eddyprice (Jun 1, 2009)

rsoares said:


> How was Government at 500cfs? Our group would have a 13ft and 16ft...


Government was ok, one raft a perfect run, I stalled mine out for a few seconds on a rock - no issue getting off. We did run each completely through before the next to avoid potential problems of stacking up.


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## Utah78 (Apr 28, 2018)

rsoares said:


> Morning All,
> Looking for some assistance in interpreting the flow forecast for the San Juan River...specifically the first week in July (July 2-7, 2021). I see the report on April 8th, but not seeing the updated info from the meeting on April 20th. I have a permit for that time period and trying to figure out if its even possible based on the forecast. I've run it as low as 700, not ideal but also not a problem.
> 
> Any assistance would be appreciated.
> ...


Can anyone please tell me where I can find the flow forecast report? I have a San Juan launching on June 16th (Sand Is. to Clay). I've seen the flows from past years, but I don't know where to look for the forecast.


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## RidgeLivin (Apr 25, 2019)

Utah78 said:


> Can anyone please tell me where I can find the flow forecast report? I have a San Juan launching on June 16th (Sand Is. to Clay). I've seen the flows from past years, but I don't know where to look for the forecast.


Here you go:



SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR (BFFU1)


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## Utah78 (Apr 28, 2018)

RidgeLivin said:


> Here you go:
> 
> 
> 
> SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR (BFFU1)


Thanks!


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## RidgeLivin (Apr 25, 2019)

Utah78 said:


> Thanks!


If you have trouble figuring out the flow looking at the chart due to the weird scale, you can click *Daily Average Forecast Flow CSV *and it will give you something like below:

BFFU1
SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR 
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending at given date/time)
Units: CFSD
Created: 5/7/2021 14Z

DATE,TIME,FLOW
5/8/2021,12Z,645
5/9/2021,12Z,633
5/10/2021,12Z,827
5/11/2021,12Z,1128
5/12/2021,12Z,935
5/13/2021,12Z,615
5/14/2021,12Z,658
5/15/2021,12Z,463
5/16/2021,12Z,352
5/17/2021,12Z,621


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## rsoares (Mar 2, 2016)

This from USGS...

Hi-

Early July is well past runoff season so at that point we are typically trying to maintain baseflows in the critical habitat reach (which includes the rafting reach). This means that we are trying to maintain an average of 500 cfs from New Mexico to Lake Powell. Often with irrigation, that means the Bluff gage (at Mexican Hat, where we have measured flows) gets the short end of the stick because it at the downstream-most end. 

Unless we get some rainstorms, which would bring up ambient hydrology, We would expect you will see flows in the 400-500 cfs range down there during that timeframe. If you go to the USGS at Bluff webpage, you can look at 2018 and 2013 as similar hydrology years. 

Monsoons are in the forecast, but if/when they will happen is still up in the air.


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