# Smith River MT cfs guesses



## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

Any of you Montana boaters have estimates for June 1, 2022 Smith River CFS ?

I see White Sulphur Springs MT weather next week has warm temps and several chances for precip. Has the Smith peaked yet ?

Wondering about snow pack in the drainage. Best I can see is about normal. 

Any information is appreciated.


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## gnarsify (Oct 5, 2020)

I launch on Friday and runoff hasn't really started yet. Cold, wet spring here so you should be good on the 1st.


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## Pinchecharlie (Jul 27, 2017)

If I had to guess it'll be good. It's been cold and rain and snow for awhile with mote precip in the forecast. Like he said it (run off) really hasn't started coming up much yet. Probably be perfect for you!


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## stone (Mar 11, 2014)

okieboater said:


> Any of you Montana boaters have estimates for June 1, 2022 Smith River CFS ?
> 
> I see White Sulphur Springs MT weather next week has warm temps and several chances for precip. Has the Smith peaked yet ?
> 
> ...


The snowpack is 62% of the median peak. The peak this year was 74%. That is a significant deficit.

The headwaters in Meagher county are extremely dry and listed as extreme drought. This area has not gotten the improvements that others are speaking of from their areas of the state.

The long term forecast I saw was for more or the same, cool with underwhelming precipitation.

Irrigation season is about to start as well.

History says June 1 is good, but this is a very unique year and there is some probability that the conditions look like they are now or worse.


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## KrisG (Jun 22, 2012)

Okie boater, I hope all is well with you and you have a good trip to Montana. I will attempt to predict the future based on what I know. Historically the Smith peaks from mid May to mid June. When it is wet and cool like it is now, the peak is shifted a little later. The peak flow, even in dry years is rarely under 500 cfs. Right now the Smith is running at 140 cfs. The current flow is almost all ground water recharge. Later this week the upper basin is supposed to get precipitation on Thursday and Friday. It will come up at some point. The question is how high for how long. 

Stone is right that the basin has not got its fair share of the moisture we have seen this spring in the rest of Montana. In early April it looked like the year was going to be a disaster. It has continuously improved since. Here is the latest snow water map.

mt_swepctnormal_update.pdf (usda.gov) 

Unfortunately the Smith is lumped in with two larger drainages, the Judith and the Musselshell. The trend is very promising. On April one snow water was at 71%. Now it is at 112%. The Smith change is probably lower than that. Normally the Smith has 95% of its snow water on April 1, and the absolute peak is on April 15. This year we have got more water later in the winter/spring, after a very dry year. At some point this water will increase flow. 

20 some years ago the government did a detailed study of water in the Smith river basin. here is the summary of the report:

_The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008). _

As you can see most of the water that falls on the drainage never makes it to the river. As the climate gets hotter and drier, even less will be making it to the river. There is another problem that is impacting flow. As the river has become less reliable, the irrigation users in the upper basin are drilling wells and using ground water that will impact the base flow of the river.

The basin is about 2000 square miles in size, and most of the flow comes from the upper half. Only about 100 square miles of the upper basin is irrigated, but that has a major impact. Here is a great map of the total basin.

Location of Smith River watershed, Montana | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)

Well now you know what I know. My guess is that we will have a nice little season of decent flow in early June. Have fun on the river.


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## gnarsify (Oct 5, 2020)

stone said:


> The snowpack is 62% of the median peak. The peak this year was 74%. That is a significant deficit.
> 
> The headwaters in Meagher county are extremely dry and listed as extreme drought. This area has not gotten the improvements that others are speaking of from their areas of the state.
> 
> ...


I'm more of an optimist than a pessimist and even though we are having a dry year (I do live in the area), the runoff has not even begun. Normal years the Smith is around 350-500 cfs this time of year, it is currently below 200 cfs and there has not been really any significant runoff bumps. Yesterday was very warm and sunny, but today it is cool and rainy and forecasted to more or less stay that way. I launch Friday and I'm worried it's going to be too low. The only problems you might have with early June and a late a runoff is crummy fishing and some small, tight eddies at some of the campsites. My crystal ball says you'll have flows in the 500-700 cfs range, either way don't stress about flows there will be plenty of water when you launch.


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

Gentlemen, all input is appreciated.

I have been lucky to have and have friends with permits to run Smith June 1 or thereabouts since 2013 except for the china virus years. We have been very lucky to have decent flows those years.

I am monitoring every day White Sulphur Springs weather and it looks like they have some decent chances for rain maybe one snow event in the coming days. Thanks for the tip on runoff, my guess has been runoff has not started either.

700 or so cfs on the Smith makes for good floating. if it is murky water on our float, fisherfolk might not have much luck but the scenery and camping will help them out.

Being from cow country in Oklahoma and also wheat country, that drive up to Billings around Hardin is beautiful green genuine buffalo grass country and the areas over around the Upper Missouri River breaks has some of the best wheat areas any where. I visited Ft Benton area one august and the fields look like gold.

Throw in the area around White Sulphur Springs fishing and creeking and it does not get much better. I really enjoy visiting Montana. Thanks for the help on water guesses!


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## GOTY2011 (Mar 18, 2018)

May 24! 🙏


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## gnarsify (Oct 5, 2020)

Just got off the Smith. Launched at ~220 cfs, when we got off the river the gage was at ~150cfs. We ran two Super Duper Pumas, a 16' cat, and a 14' Star. The pumas had minimal problems at those flows, just had to pull off a couple of rocks. The 14' Star did ok, newer rowers so they bounced off quite a few rocks and got stuck on gravel bars a few times. The 16' cat had to do a fair amount of dragging. Until flows go up, pack light and be prepared to be heads up while rowing, the few times I tried to just relax and drift I would very quickly find myself running aground. We had a cold first couple days, but when it warmed the dry-fly fishing was phenomenal, some Salmon Flies we seen and the big Browns were hitting them.


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## BeltsnBoots (Mar 8, 2019)

I'm supposed to launch May 29th. Fingers crossed flows get above 200 cfs by then!


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

Just talked to my Smith float's permit holder. He called camp baker. Low water, snow, cold and the list goes on. Our members are facing a long expensive drive tomorrow and with the low water, weather and cost of gas from fly over country - he cancelled a June 1 launch. 

Call the ranger if interested.


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## BeltsnBoots (Mar 8, 2019)

Weather looks better wednesday than my sunday launch


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## GOTY2011 (Mar 18, 2018)

Launched on the 24th at 170, had to drag boats most of the first 9 miles, first camp Lower Rock Garden. 17 miles to Sunset Cliff the following day had us on the water early for day 2, which we also had to drag extensively until we got past creeks, some flowing well others dry. Night three at Lower Fraunhofer, camped at Middle Ridgetop on night four, got a nice bump due to overnight rain, and we got to Eden Bridge at 270, making the last 14 miles easy.


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## patrick l (Mar 8, 2012)

okieboater said:


> Just talked to my Smith float's permit holder. He called camp baker. Low water, snow, cold and the list goes on. Our members are facing a long expensive drive tomorrow and with the low water, weather and cost of gas from fly over country - he cancelled a June 1 launch.
> 
> Call the ranger if interested.


That sucks he canceled. Seems to be getting worse every year with people canceling just a few days before said launch because of weather and flows. 
Now that permit is basically useless some vagabond or trust-funder is hanging around up there. Most of us that live up here would kill for those conditions. 
There’s currently plenty of water as there was on the 27th. And I hate the weather excuse, it’s Montana, not AZ or UT. Don’t apply for the smith if you want perfect weather, even in June and July. Wrong river. 
Not trying to be the meat-head rafter bully but it needed to be said. Maybe the fair weather boat will read this and take into consideration next time they apply.


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## gnarsify (Oct 5, 2020)

gnarsify said:


> My crystal ball says you'll have flows in the 500-700 cfs range, either way don't stress about flows there will be plenty of water when you launch.


My crystal ball was a little off, but it's been a weird spring...Okie would have had great conditions, super lame he had to cancel. Hovering at 350 which is perfect fishing level and after launching around 200 a couple weeks ago that sounds like a lot of water.


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## IceColdBrew (Aug 16, 2021)

okieboater said:


> Any of you Montana boaters have estimates for June 1, 2022 Smith River CFS ?
> 
> I see White Sulphur Springs MT weather next week has warm temps and several chances for precip. Has the Smith peaked yet ?
> 
> ...





gnarsify said:


> My crystal ball was a little off, but it's been a weird spring...Okie would have had great conditions, super lame he had to cancel. Hovering at 350 which is perfect fishing level and after launching around 200 a couple weeks ago that sounds like a lot of water.


We have permit for July 1. It seems we should be good to go. Agree? I will be 10 weeks from ACL reconstruction surgery and thought I was off the hook until all that moisture hit. Now, I have to make a decision. Always good to have options.


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## GOTY2011 (Mar 18, 2018)

We temped the water last week at 63 already, flows between 140-170 above last boat camps. The crew at HOE seemed to think it’s going to be another short season for fishing and floating, with rain being the only water left to increase flows, yet here we sit well above SWE and there’s NO snow anywhere but Showdown.

Looking at Fort Logan gauge today, water is already dropping and temps are at 55 headed up.

Cross your fingers but if it’s below 140 at launch date in July the water will be far too warm to fish.


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## Pinchecharlie (Jul 27, 2017)

So crazy it done nothing but rain and snow over here fir past 3 weeks. Gallatins in the 75th percentile qnd it looks like snow from 6k up? With more rain forecast


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## IceColdBrew (Aug 16, 2021)

We have permit for July 1. It seems we should be good to go. Agree? I will be 10 weeks from ACL reconstruction surgery and thought I was off the hook until all that moisture hit. Now, I have to make a decision. Always good to have options.


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## Pinchecharlie (Jul 27, 2017)

Seems like guys are saying it's a bad water year over there even now so july 1st is probably questionable at best.


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## patrick l (Mar 8, 2012)

IceColdBrew said:


> We have permit for July 1. It seems we should be good to go. Agree? I will be 10 weeks from ACL reconstruction surgery and thought I was off the hook until all that moisture hit. Now, I have to make a decision. Always good to have options.


“Circle back” to this in a couple weeks, been a weird year, too early to tell. Although I’d say that pretty much any year concerning a July permit.


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## Cirrhosis_of_the_River (Oct 20, 2020)

A July 1 launch date isn't looking half bad at present!

We had June 22 last year and FWP called the trip. Flows were under 100.


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## almortal (Jun 22, 2014)

Other question, are bugs much of an issue on the Smith this time of year? We also have a trip in a week and are wondering if a mesh tent is necessary.


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## ds (Sep 30, 2004)

Any Smith River locals have any insight on flows? thought MT still had a ton of snow but flows are dropping off fast. launch this week. many thanks!

USGS Current Conditions for USGS 06077200 Smith River bl Eagle Cr nr Fort Logan MT


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## gnarsify (Oct 5, 2020)

Should be good this week, but next week will probably be the end of the raft friendly flows. I did run it around 200 cfs this spring and was able to bump my raft down with minimal dragging. Water will be dropping quickly, but you'll have good weather and probably good fishing, have fun!


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