# Let the speculation begin



## glenn (May 13, 2009)

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Thanks for linking that report; I tried to run one this morning but was getting error messages.

Those are some bleak #s through much of the West, but especially Washington and Oregon. California is on a different system but as I understand it they are in a continued epic drougb as well so that map is likely more red than its showing right now.

I am not holding my breathe for much change in the spring but I know we would all be grateful for a noticeable increase in precipitation. Looking like my wife and I chose a good year to prioritize travel to see our friends and family (not much time or money for many river trips this year). 

Best of luck out there this season.

Phillip


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## kengore (May 29, 2008)

That's looking a little better than the last one. The West Coast is still hurting but the Rocky's are improving. Long way to go till spring.


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## BeaterBoater (Sep 29, 2014)

It's not even february. Same shit every year. STFU until April.


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## codycleve (Mar 26, 2012)

BeaterBoater said:


> It's not even february. Same shit every year. STFU until April.


If you think the speculatoin is bad now, wait until next week when the permits are released... We didnt have any snow last year until febuary and march.. we had less that we do now at this piont in the year.. But we had a great year... A lot of people getting bored this winter.. I will be getting the boat wet here before too long and doing some steelhead fishing.. shake off the winter blues..


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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

It hasn't snowed in like a week so I thought we were in a major drought. Sorry. Turns out we're OK up here.


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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

Apparently core shots are not an accurate method for checking SWE.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

glenn said:


> Apparently core shots are not an accurate method for checking SWE.


Would be an interesting study.....core shots are just a sad experience. Always cringe with that telltale sound.

Phillip


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Never understood the wait until Spring approach but I am also not sad or disillusioned right now. The snowpack data and medians already account for yearly trends. Half of the west could get immense amounts of spring snow but its note remotely forecasted.

And lets not forget....many of us had horrible boating years last season. California was dry. My local SW Utah runs were bone dry. The windows of peaks were smaller on many others. Not exactly a blanket "great" year across the West.

We will cope with whatever we get but that doesn't mean I have to lie to myself about the changing winters and norms in my neck of the woods. Its raining again here. I can count the number of days we have had snow on the ground on two hands but rain from late-November to end of end of January.....way too many to keep track of. So backwards. 

All the more reason to look into a pack raft I suppose.

Phillip


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## soggy_tortillas (Jul 22, 2014)

It's February in Steamboat and I can see grass... not the kind everyone's smoking... the kind you don't want to see in Steamboat in the winter...
Next weekend is winter carnival, they usually have to drag snow down to main street for all the events anyway... just not sure where they're gonna import it from this year.
It is so hard to guess though... some years it really doesn't start snowing hard until later in the season. It's snowed all the way until June some years....
Power of intention? All together now!


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

restrac2000 said:


> Never understood the wait until Spring approach but I am also not sad or disillusioned right now. The snowpack data and medians already account for yearly trends. Half of the west could get immense amounts of spring snow but its not remotely forecasted.
> Phillip



Climate forecasting is to be taken with a truck load of salt.
But:

This was from Jan 20th:


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

My wife and I have moved our summer vacation from Utah to Alberta/BC.

Not water related.
Exchange rates.
Hard to forecast also.
Canada is in an oil payments drought.


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

Brings to mind Great migrations.
Wildebeests
Caribou
Humpbacks
Monarch Butterflys
Arctic Terns
Rafters


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## Osseous (Jan 13, 2012)

SW Utah floats???.....

Sent from my SM-N900V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Virgin River has at least 4 floatable sections, not including Devil's Staircase and Narrows, both of which are outside of my ability. 

I include Escalante River into the mix; Sevier River has one Class III daily (not worth driving for unless local); Dirty Devil is stretching the term and is more Central.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

BilloutWest said:


> Climate forecasting is to be taken with a truck load of salt.
> But:
> 
> This was from Jan 20th:


The generic forecast is holding out. My old home in Va Beach is experiencing weeks of temperatures lower than my western town at close to 6k feet. NOAA's tend to be a more eloquent in my book:




























For my area that means continued above average temperatures and a chance of normal precipitation for the next 30+ days. Precipitation probabilities increase in SW starting March but considering temps are likely to be above average still that could easily be rain not snow.

Freezing fog at the resort at 11,000 feet today and 45F and rain in town at 6k. We had hoar frost on the lifts which is historically rare here, though much more common last 2 years. Snow depth is a little better than last year's horrible totals but much worse than preceding years, anywhere from 30-60% less. When compared to the last year we had a solid Virgin River run, back in 2011, we are sitting at something like 25% of that snowpack. 

If the new norm is drier mid-winters and wetter spring snows than things could even out. For now, the new norm seems to be warmer, less snow and significantly lower annual snowpacks. No point in getting sad about it but I am not gonna set myself up for disappointment either waiting for some sort of epic spring snows that would be well outside the historic normal. Same seems to be happening for other regional runs like the Salt. 

If we get dumped on I can easily inflate my IK and head an hour south though. I would love to see several of those runs again and they historically release around my birthday. I love floating through Zion...nothing quite like it.

Phillip


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## BeaterBoater (Sep 29, 2014)

"There's not enough snow on the ground as of february 1st. The spring run off that will take place *4 months* from now might be bad. HO HUM, I'm so sad"

There's nothing you're going to do about it anyways go enjoy the warm weather. I don't mind a mountain bike ride occasionally in the middle of January in shorts and a T-shirt. Better than whining on the buzz about it. Like someone will feel bad for you and turn on the snow. lol.


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

BeaterBoater said:


> "There's not enough snow on the ground as of february 1st. The spring run off that will take place *4 months* from now might be bad. HO HUM, I'm so sad"
> 
> There's nothing you're going to do about it anyways go enjoy the warm weather. I don't mind a mountain bike ride occasionally in the middle of January in shorts and a T-shirt. Better than whining on the buzz about it. Like someone will feel bad for you and turn on the snow. lol.


It used to be in times of trouble one could turn to their religious leader for consoling.
Then soured souls paid money to have a shrink listen. SOTAR money.

Now we've found support groups provide the most help for many. Like the Buzz.


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## FastFXR (May 22, 2012)

If you look at the past data, you'll see the snowfall peak has mostly shifted about a month down the calendar.

I don't necessarily count this as a lack of snowfall, just a delayed event.


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## BeaterBoater (Sep 29, 2014)

BilloutWest said:


> It used to be in times of trouble one could turn to their religious leader for consoling.
> Then soured souls paid money to have a shrink listen. SOTAR money.
> 
> Now we've found support groups provide the most help for many. Like the Buzz.


sheep...


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

BilloutWest said:


> It used to be in times of trouble one could turn to their religious leader for consoling.
> Then soured souls paid money to have a shrink listen. SOTAR money.
> 
> Now we've found support groups provide the most help for many. Like the Buzz.


I know I just enjoy talking out the ideas and issues. No control in it and no real emotion at this point. Just a fun exercise. Would love to see more snow and water in our regional drainages for ecological as well as recreational purposes but we get what we get.

Phillip


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## soggy_tortillas (Jul 22, 2014)

BeaterBoater said:


> "There's not enough snow on the ground as of february 1st. The spring run off that will take place *4 months* from now might be bad. HO HUM, I'm so sad"
> 
> There's nothing you're going to do about it anyways go enjoy the warm weather. I don't mind a mountain bike ride occasionally in the middle of January in shorts and a T-shirt. Better than whining on the buzz about it. Like someone will feel bad for you and turn on the snow. lol.


..... I feel bad for you, Negative Nancy. 
Got some good snow this weekend! Sounds like there's more to come  Maybe that power of intention is kickin in after all!


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## dafewillis (Jun 21, 2014)

That's awful early to throw out the "sheep" card. I'm betting BeaterBoater isn't anywhere near the iconoclast he thinks he is...


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

soggy_tortillas said:


> ..... I feel bad for you, Negative Nancy.
> Got some good snow this weekend! Sounds like there's more to come  Maybe that power of intention is kickin in after all!


I used the "ignore" function on him for the first time ever so I never know what was said unless it shows up in someone else's quotes. I am guessing most have been insults. 

Phillip


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## soggy_tortillas (Jul 22, 2014)

I didn't know there was an ignore button!
Perhaps I've just been ignoring the ignore button...


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

BeaterBoater said:


> sheep...


Aren't you a cuddly little porcupine? 

Do you need a hug? 

Let me guess - Seahawks fan and you are still mad?

or you are just mad. Go take a bike ride. Exercise can improve attitude.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

soggy_tortillas said:


> I didn't know there was an ignore button!
> Perhaps I've just been ignoring the ignore button...


Yeah, I avoided the ignore function for a while.

I found it by going to his public profile and then its under the "user lists" tab below their name.

I really don't prefer it as an option but trolls on the Buzz tend not to respond to feedback. Part of the Buzz is banter and playful jabs which I think some people confuse with mean-spirited passive aggressiveness. 

So it goes. Best of luck.

Phillip Rhoades


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## SKeen (Feb 23, 2009)

1 - 2 feet of snow predicted to come through the mountains above Boulder over the next 48 hours. Carry on with the snow dances!


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## elkhaven (Sep 11, 2013)

I'm trying to take off and go steelhead fishing next week and this is the long term forecast for the Clearwater River:










Now, I know we have a lot of rain forecast for this week, but I'm thinking NOAA is factoring in a bunch of snowmelt to come up with that amount of water...

I hope it doesn't happen for two reasons: 

1- I'll be staying home and dreaming of fish...

2- It'll eat up most of the snow pack and shuttle a bunch of potential snow-pack out to the pacific...

On a positive note, the Lochsa might be real fun, if you're into iceburg bumper boats 


Edit to note that historical mean discharge is about 3,000 cfs or approx. 3.5' on the gage.


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

SKeen said:


> 1 - 2 feet of snow predicted to come through the mountains above Boulder over the next 48 hours. Carry on with the snow dances!


Snow Hawg.

Warm and wet in Orygun.
About a dozen degrees above average for awhile.

Maybe some rain/snow/rain/snow in the mountains.


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## elkhaven (Sep 11, 2013)

glenn said:


> Apparently core shots are not an accurate method for checking SWE.


I know what your saying, there are still a lot of rocks, everywhere... doesn't seem like were above normal. In fact I'm guessing all the rain on snow events have stayed in the thin and increasing dense snow pack. It's the only thing I can think of...how we'd have a lot of water without much snow depth.


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