# hows it looking ???



## tskoe23 (Jun 19, 2010)

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/co_update_snow.pdf


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## Skillkilla (Mar 29, 2011)

not bad huh ! cmon snow !! whoo hoo. thanks brother


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

This thread:

http://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f11/is-it-time-to-worry-yet-46154.html

has been continually updated with snow pack conditions this winter.

Snotel stations have not updated the graphs since this last storm...yet, but I would be willing to wager the Arkansas Basin will have caught up to, or passed last years snow pack and should be in the vicinity of 80% of average. Not going to be a banner year by any means, but we are certainly looking better all the time.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

Arkansas and S Platte overall numbers are 90% of last year currently. The notable change this past week is that northwestern basins are now doing better than the San Juans relative to last year.

Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Comparison Update Report


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## BrianK (Feb 3, 2005)

not bad? Last year was terrible, and we aren't even to last years levels. Things are getting better, but we need snow.

Remember last year followed one of the wettest years ever. This year the soil is drier, the trees have less water content and the reservoirs are lower. Each of these are going to soak up the little water that melts and prevent it from reaching the river. I hate to be negative, but we need to start doing some human sacrifices or something to appease the spring snow gods. 

I for one am willing to sacrifice my liver to the gods of snow. Its the least I can do.


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

Soon they get my hip and that'd better help


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Looking better!

"Friday through Sunday ~It may be southwest Colorados turn~ --A Gulf of Alaska low pressure system drops in through and offshore from California, causing an unsettled pattern across Colorado, with some light snow developing on Friday for northern Colorado, and more moderate snow possible across southwest Colorado. On Saturday and Sunday this low pressure system may move across the desert southwest, favoring southwest Colorado with possibly significant snow and delivering mostly light snow for northern Colorado. CM"

LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

"-29 Mar to 03 Apr, 2013 - Early April (the following week) looks initially stable under high pressure as the last storm move away, with more spring conditions under mostly sunny skies expected. An unsettled, busy pattern develops again after a few days or so of sun (in the first few days of April) with snow storms moving through again as a low pressure trough becomes more of a dominant factor across the western US again. The potential for significant storms is there.CM"










Now 102% of last year and 81% of normal with more storms in the pipeline, hopefully they keep on coming... we might actually see some runoff if this keeps up!


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

FWIW and totally anecdotal:
Toured Hwy 133/82 yesterday. Not much snow over towards Aspen. Crystal Valley looks sad. Sopris sadder. Chair quite thin. Raggeds, too. West Elks maybe a tad better. Runoff started per color of Crystal and Muddy, but not Avalanche (Gunny Basin). If anyone asks, didn't see ice on the Crystal or Roaring Fork but had the hammer down so could have missed some. Heard Shosho was low but OK. 

I think we all need to schedule a virtual party: All at the same time pull the ring on a PBR, Schlitz, Old Mil, Tecate. Corona, Fat Tire and boutiques don't count. 'cept maybe Gillies. Only rotgut. Prolly missed this full moon. Next? Don't think we should moon the moon though. We might be crazy but the Gods aren't. Include campfire, meat and Scnapps. All pull then howl. Takers?


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## KSC (Oct 22, 2003)

Hey, I know some of you may be bumming since the snowpack still looks low and most basins need 300-600% of normal precipitation for the rest of the season to reach peak. However, after doing some research into the Cenozoic era, I see that around 50 million years ago there were some years that had major precip events that brought around 10000% of average snowfall in the region. There's a good chance that a similar event in April will not only bring our snowpack up to normal, but even surpass it! Get out your big water boats boys and girls; I'm looking forward to a huge runoff this spring!


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## wsmckinney (Jun 21, 2010)

YEYA!!!!!! KSC fo life!!!


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

So that really was a Terror Bird over the NF Gunny yesterday!?!


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

It’s time to start comparing the snowpack to the normal peak since for most sites that’ll happen by the end of the month. For the Ark that’s currently 59%.

Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Update Report

In comparison to last year, it’s looking like there will be a later melt giving a better chance for a higher peak, but still a short season for greater than low flows.


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## JDHOG72 (Jul 18, 2007)

Thanks for the buzz kill Bruce. I'm going with KSC's data. That shit seems legit. Plus I saw that Escalante is already cranking.


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## skipowpow (Mar 1, 2011)

There is something (four letter word) that I think we may have missed this season. I am hopeful. I don't think I have heard about it or seen it.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

West slope peak flow forecasts are below. They haven't been updated for April yet.

Peak Flow List

Peak Flow List


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

Snow summary:
April News Release | Colorado NRCS

Peak Flow outlooks on the previous links have been updated for 4/01.


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## Nathan (Aug 7, 2004)

The good news is snow pack is better than last year. Too bad it's last year that we have to compare it to for a positive. 

I hope KSC is right.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

Daily comparisons to last year are misleading now, since the snowpack levels were rapidly dropping by this time a year ago. Statewide the snowpack peak looks to be almost the same as last year just the melt is going to be later this year. Basin by basin, it’s looking like the Yampa and N Platte have the best chance at peaking higher than last year. More snow is in the forecast for next week, but the outlook has that favoring the north, too.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotstate13.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif


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## F.A.A.C. Slim (Jan 14, 2010)

I live in Palisade, work in Parachute so I drive along the Colorado River every day. Seems to me that with last week of warm temps I should have seen some flow increase in the old Colorado but no indeed. Not even any discoloration until Mesa Creek dumps in. I'm thinking the ground is thirsty and once again the air is sucking the moisture right up into space. If the snowpack peak is now, and it is only 12" water content, we will have even less runoff than last year. Maybe get an opportunity to "zero" those flow gages in late summer. booo


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

F.A.A.C. Slim said:


> I live in Palisade, work in Parachute so I drive along the Colorado River every day. Seems to me that with last week of warm temps I should have seen some flow increase in the old Colorado but no indeed. Not even any discoloration until Mesa Creek dumps in. I'm thinking the ground is thirsty and once again the air is sucking the moisture right up into space. If the snowpack peak is now, and it is only 12" water content, we will have even less runoff than last year. Maybe get an opportunity to "zero" those flow gages in late summer. booo


I think you're onto something here. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning we got 7.5" of some of the wettest snow I have ever seen here in Buena Vista. It all melted between 12 and 3 pm with hardly any mud and zero surface runoff. There was 3/4" of moisture in it but the ground and air sucked up the moisture faster than I have ever seen. Luckily we got good rain last night and have more snow in the forecast.


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## yetigonecrazy (May 23, 2005)

That is why we all have two (or three, or four....) sports that we do, so we can do those when there is no water. Low water blues? Get out that mountain bike. No flow? Fuck it, let's go do some hairy slot canyons in Utah. Nice day but too far to drive for water? Shoot up some speed and run for a day and a half. Colorado is awesome, and we all love our rivers.....but it helps to have a side diversion


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Don't worry, I've been on my bike plenty so far this year, and the backcountry skiing is actually pretty decent at the moment..... I guess I'm just a geek when it comes to weather, water and hydrology.


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

Like what F.A.A.C.Slim says, same is showing up in lower Gunny near Austin & Delta over last five days. With the temps & rain over here, we'd usually see reddish brown by now. Instead, while the level is up, it's not the usual boisterous color. Noticed that in downtown GJ last Thursday, too.Interesting...

FWIW: Dug a 4ft. bore over here and saw no H2O whereas last year we did.

Re backcountry conditions that *lmyers* mentioned: A telemarking friend of mine just finished his 44th day of the season and he's enjoying fine snow in West Elks Eastward.


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## suigeneris (May 25, 2004)

*runoff*

There won't be any flow on the Big T out of RMNP this year but we were in a complete white out near Hidden Valley today while skiing. The top bowl snow conditions have actually improved over the last month, but most of rmnp and all of estes park is BARE...


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## Chief Niwot (Oct 13, 2003)

suigeneris said:


> There won't be any flow on the Big T out of RMNP this year but we were in a complete white out near Hidden Valley today while skiing. The top bowl snow conditions have actually improved over the last month, but most of rmnp and all of estes park is BARE...


Trying to be optimistic, looking at the South Platte graph, it is trending better then last year. We are still climbing and it looks like winter is not over from extended forecasts that I have seen! All we need is a good April and May like 2011.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotsp13.gif

Not sure how to get this to display. I used image and it shows up on preview, but not in post.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

It is starting to look like we may actually have some water in the Ark basin. I have been out the back country the past few days and yesterday was one of the top 3 days in the past 2 years. We are getting hammered with snow here in Ark basin. I hope to get up for some quick laps after work and will try and get some photo proof ... 

The graph says 205% of last year and almost 80% of normal - it is also snowing right now with another storm on the way. Brumley is at 97% and at this time last year it as at 1%..... Freemont Pass is at 89%.

Yea April/March have been good to us. 








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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

Comparing to previous YTD isn't an accurate depiction. At this point you need to compare to previous peak snowpack. Since peak hasn't happened yet (late) the percent compared to previous years is inflated. This includes comparisons to average. Last year was an early peak so it's the worst comparison of all. 

Since it is a late peak snowpack it could mean good things in terms of water actually being in the river during runoff and afterwords rather than losing half the snowpack before runoff really begins. Not trying to be a downer, just saying the % of historical snow pack isn't a great comparison at this point.


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## F.A.A.C. Slim (Jan 14, 2010)

Bottom line is that there is about 8" of water content in the snowpack (as per the chart). In a year like this, with an early / short runoff last season, little autumn moisture / rain, the ground is quite dry and will absorb as much as 3-4" of water leaving only 4" to "runoff" into the Arkansas River. And how much of that limited snowpack water becomes runoff depends on how the weather gods act thru mid-June. Hot / dry / windy means more water is lost to the sky; if we have a prolonged rain cycle (2-3 days) the entire snowpack can melt away in just a few days. It is good we are getting lots of moisture this week, last week, and hopefully next week but I am still worried that this years float season will be shorter than normal with much lower peak flows...so get it while / when you can...cheers


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## paulk (Apr 24, 2006)

Every little bit helps and like you said, long, dry warm periods will change what we will get. Still, for the same reason, April big snows are better than November Big snows. Our sacrifices have been good thus far since Feb. Keep drinking to apease the snow/river gods.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Another thing to consider is that graph includes the Sangre's and lower basin. As RDNEK said Brumely is at 98% of average and Freemont is at 89% of average. This is where the water for everything above Salida comes from....and again, as stated last year Brumely was at a miserable 1% of average right now. I have been in the backcountry recently too and have seen the BIG improvements to our snowpack. It's not a 2011 year by any means, but if it keeps up like this we might see a good 1500-2000 cfs in Browns Canyon at peak melt.


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## Skillkilla (Mar 29, 2011)

........and its snowing again. sweet !!!!!


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## freeheeltim (Mar 3, 2009)

As long as it peaks above the 700 or so cfs we saw last year I'll be happy. Wasn't a river person for '02, but last year was pretty rough, especially as a commercial guide. Still, not bummed to be hanging up the full time guide gig this summer. I had a good decade.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

I dont think that we are going to have a run off here on the Ark like 2008 but we will have way more water or 2x more in 2013 than we saw in 2012... I am in the hills in the Ark drainage more than most and have seen a few years roll through. My opinion is that I am not sure we will see a peak of 2000 but we easily have double the snow pack that we had last year at this time. 

If you look at the graph we have had good snow in this basin since the after the first week of February. March was good and April is looking to be good possibly great. Last night we were riding 3+ feet of settled snow from the past week.

Or you boys know I am game to back up my opinion with a 30 rack of PBR. So lets have some fun with it! If you boys (slim, glenn, or anyone else) want to bet what the flow will be on any given day in June, July or up to August 15th - well lets make a payin bet. 

The bet on the table is that I will take any day you pick and I will bet you a 30 rack of PBR that the flow this year will be double what it was last year. Again you pick in any day in June or July, or August and I will bet you the flow will be double as measured on the Nathrop gauge for the day.

Time to put theory aside and put some PBR where your mouth is !


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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

Now what kind of ass would I be betting against you having water AND taking your beer? J/k. I'll easily take your "on the ground" assessment of the situation and Logan's input on the upper drainages vs. lower drainages sounds promising for the upper Ark valley. I hope you guys get dumped on and have a rockin' year. If not feel free to come up here and I'll put you up and buy you a 30 rack just because. 

So yes, I am too chicken shit to put my money where my mouth is.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Haha. Yea no worries man just kidding around and I am pretty sure that I still owe Harv a 30 rack from a bet I made in 2012 but he never got me one from the bet(s) I won in 2011 and 2010!

Anyway it is pry for the best as I am not sure how much it would be or if it is even legal to ship PBR to Montana ..


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## caspermike (Mar 9, 2007)

Jesus you boys swinging your dongs around, just cause they are longer than your pinky fingers doesn't mean they are big boys. You guys are talking about the Arkansas river. This isn't the little white, big south, big timber, green river, or north fork of the payette. Just buy the beer and drink it together you bunch of narcissistic bastards.

Ps PBR is a bastard step child around these parts the only people who drink it are ski bumms cause they spent there money on 100 dollar lift ticket to big sky

I only drink it when I'm out of water.


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## Nathan (Aug 7, 2004)

I'll take your bet, July 9th. Mean daily flow in 2012 was 543. Can I claim my win with a sweet dog vest like Petey has?


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Nathan damn it I knew someone would look into a "rain event".. BV LOC's should be excluded from this bet! Fingers crossed it does look like that there will be enough water to make the BV park good.. With that said how is the park up there in Fort Collins? Will it be good this year? 

Harv said that "rain events" were excluded last year as that is what I claimed when I lost so I thought we would carry that rule forward!! You cant take Pete's jacket as a 90lb pit bull sinks like a rock when he hits rio and as he is 12 years old now he needs it more than ever...

Mike - ok Budwiser or Bud light if that makes your Wyo ass happy .. Also something for you to think about is that there will be more imports on Lake.. Or last year they brought over 12k in imports and this year it will be closer to 30k or more (fingers crossed).. So we will get more days on Lake Creek as most of this water never hits the Ark and the only time to boat it is on Lake.


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## caspermike (Mar 9, 2007)

That's good to hear to a certain extent doesn't this take water from another drainage though. How does it work I know nothing is as it seems down there's.. I love lake creek


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Yea I love Lake as well. If you are ever this way hit me up as it would be fun to get a run up there with ya.

Short of is it front range water interests take between 20,000 to 90,000 acre ft of water from the Aspen side and send it through a tunnel that dumps into the "upper" section of Lake Creek this can be as much as 600+ cfs.. It then runs down into Twin Lakes and is pumped to the front range via the Otero Pump station.

Most of this water never hits the Ark but it does give us a long season up on Lake. Last year they only brought over 12,000 but this year it sounds like 30,000 so we should have a couple of weeks maybe a month of boatable flows on top of run off up on Lake.

It is also the reason the flows up there can jump 400 cfs in 15 min and change your run for sure. The link below is to the what they are putting through the tunnel...

Detail Graph


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

The most recent comparable year to this one as far as Ark SWE is 2004.

The 2004 snowpack resulted in below average flow almost all of the season, but still was drastically better than last year.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

I will definitely be happy with flows similar to 2004, especially after last year.


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## Porkchop (Sep 19, 2007)

Dusted, Damn it all to hell.


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## stupka (Sep 6, 2012)

Porkchop said:


> Dusted, Damn it all to hell.


Easy their porkchops....there's still layers of white and wet to come


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## pinemnky13 (Jun 4, 2007)

Hell out here in the middle of the western slope banana belt(silt) its been snowing for days, and dumping again tonight. Let's hope.all this moisture keeps ruining our hopes for a nice weather float this month


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

Lookin' better every day!


ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotstate13.gif


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

Rad snow ASE & West Elks for last several days


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## JDHOG72 (Jul 18, 2007)

KSC said:


> Hey, I know some of you may be bumming since the snowpack still looks low and most basins need 300-600% of normal precipitation for the rest of the season to reach peak. However, after doing some research into the Cenozoic era, I see that around 50 million years ago there were some years that had major precip events that brought around 10000% of average snowfall in the region. There's a good chance that a similar event in April will not only bring our snowpack up to normal, but even surpass it! Get out your big water boats boys and girls; I'm looking forward to a huge runoff this spring!


 
KSC nailed the 50 million year event. He gets pick of the litter of Team Red sheep for all of Gore Season 2013 and a brand spanking new pair of tall rubber boots.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

KSC said:


> ...after doing some research into the Cenozoic era, I see that around 50 million years ago there were some years that had major precip events that brought around 10000% of average snowfall in the region. .... I'm looking forward to a huge runoff this spring!


Awhile back another geologist and I were talking about avalanches. He recounted a story he'd heard from a couple of guys that had been mapping out slide paths over around Vail when a lot of the area was being developed. They'd mapped out a bunch of the avalanche paths on the south side of the valley between East Vail and the ski area and then they went over to the north side just to be able to say they'd done all their homework. Up in an old tree on the north side of I-70, they found chunks of tree trunk that had been swept across the valley and a fair distance up the other side. IIRC, the tree ring data showed it happened about 300 years ago. 

There's a snow event for you!

Hey, we've still got the rest of April, May, and the first part of June...

Praying for snow,

-AH


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## pinemnky13 (Jun 4, 2007)

The view this morning from silt, looks a lot like winter we haven't had an April snow like this in a while. Let's hope we get a lot more!


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

Porkchop said:


> Dusted, Damn it all to hell.


Good news of deep snow in Colorado foiled by dust that will speed melt - The Denver Post


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## pinemnky13 (Jun 4, 2007)

Basin snowpack to near normal after storms | PostIndependent.com Profile=1074 

Starting to look good, and more on the way!


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## Porkchop (Sep 19, 2007)

upon further review, the dust layer is buried by at least 6" and more snow is forecast. hopefully it won't come into play for a bit.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

The Durango Herald 04/21/2013 | Dust storms hasten snowmelt


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

I don't think the dust was as bad around here as other parts of the state. I certainly saw it, but it wasn't that thick imo.

New numbers are looking good....at least compared to last year.


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## gnarwhal (Aug 26, 2008)

There sure was a lot of dust blowing around down here in the desert today (4/22). Any of you buzzards that live in the high country know if this cold front has brought another dust event?


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## Porkchop (Sep 19, 2007)

i think this next piece of weather is associated w/ the North West flow which is not as suseptable to dust as the South west flow. dust shouldn't come in to play too bad in central to north, but its really gonna speed things up in the San Juans... but what the hell do i know??


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## BCxp (Jun 3, 2012)

Blowing over here on West Slope with no dust, FWIW


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## caspermike (Mar 9, 2007)

NRCS/WRDS Snowpack Data

Laramie range will have a season this year. Up in the 90 percent of average area thanks the river gods!!

Box elder and deer creek should have a decent season if anybody looking to get those spring chicks


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## Chief Niwot (Oct 13, 2003)

12"-14" at my house in Ned and no dust, the dust is buried  South Platte has to be close or over 100% with this storm.


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## BrianK (Feb 3, 2005)

Its gotten much better for the front range. Both the South Platte and Colorado are at 90% of average peak with the northern areas looking better than the southern areas. Looks like there might actually be some water this year.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

Berthoud has reached it's average peak:
NWCC - SNOTEL Water Year Graph

Loveland is still behind, but not by much:
NWCC - SNOTEL Water Year Graph


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Here around and north of Buena Vista we have been getting straight up puked on. This pic was taken about a week ago and there has been 3 feet or more of snow on top of this. The dust layer is there but buried 24" to 36" deep. 










Needless to say the snow pack cant handle this new load and we are seeing some big avalanche around here. 

Graphs are saying that Freemont Pass is up to 97%, Brumley is up to 110%, and the basin as a total is at 90% of normal and over 300% of last years snow total. It does look like the flow program will happen now so flows in the 700 range out into August here on the Ark is a reality.


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## Phil U. (Feb 7, 2009)

"Graphs are saying that Freemont Pass is up to 97%, Brumley is up to 110%, and the basin as a total is at 90% of normal and over 300% of last years snow total. It does look like the flow program will happen now so flows in the 700 range out into August here on the Ark is a reality."

That's amazing. I'll ELF to that!


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## Nathan (Aug 7, 2004)

I find it ironic that we complain about the lack of snow all winter then April is great and snowpack is near normal and the response is, it's covered in dust and is going to run off too fast. I guess people just need something to be negative and complain about.

I think this month is going to save the season for most of the state. I won't complain if the dust causes it to run off faster, personally I'm a fan of a big peak. 

RDNEK, if you put a normal size person in that photo, or even better JT, it would look more impressive.


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## Sawatch Rescue (Apr 17, 2010)

I think JT might be in that picture...


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

You have a selfish view in favor of a fast runoff. To all other water users dust is a big deal since the snowpack acts as a reservoir to maintain river flows through the summer.

The San Juan snowpack has declined this month and dust there is likely part of the cause.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

I went out to California last week thinking none of the front range creeks would run this year. I come back a week later, and the season appears to have been saved! Awesome news. Looking forward to getting on some favorites that didn't run last year.


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## ACC (Oct 30, 2003)

Nancy, er I mean Cadster, no one controls the rate of snowpack melt. Having a preference for high flow versus low flow is not selfish. It is what it is. Projecting someone's internet stoke comment on a natural process is silly. We'll see what the weather brings and enjoy it when the white goes clear and fills our fickle creeks and "rivers."


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## ChasetheWater (Apr 19, 2011)

Bring on the big water! I hope it all melts at once too! Cadster I think I saw a good post about knee pads for SUPing among other things, you should look into it..


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Nathan said:


> RDNEK, if you put a normal size person in that photo, or even better JT, it would look more impressive.





Sawatch Rescue said:


> I think JT might be in that picture...




That's great - thanks for the laugh this afternoon boys! 

I will have to let JT know that the buzz was talkin about him.. He actually took the pic and yea I would have taken it of him but all you would have seen is the top of the snorkel!


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## Osseous (Jan 13, 2012)

What's the scoop now?!


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