# Salt river this year?



## powrider686

Hey all, 
Wondering what the Buzzards think of the chances of the Salt running this year. I see that most of the snowtel stations in the White Mountains are at or below 50 percent, and not sure what that translates into on the Salt. Any beta much appreciated!


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## AZ boater

Maybe we can turn this into who has the best snotel link thread. The one I use is:
https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/report...=Arizona&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report


My link is more optimistic at 73% for the salt basin and 85 for Hannagan Meadows; please share what you were looking at. 


Below is a link of a thread from our more scientific buzzards, which is also more optimistic than your <50%. 


https://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f41/predicting-future-runoff-96427-3.html


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## powrider686

Ahh, I see. Your numbers do look much better. 

I was looking at this map, and hovering over each station and seeing the percentile (POR) which was at or around 50 for most stations that I was guessing were considered to be within the White Mountains. 

I was interpreting this as 50% percentile of SWA, but it was actually the SWA being ~83% that is at the 50th percentile, not the actual SWA. 

Thanks for catching that. Makes me want to snag a Salt permit this year!

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quickLinks/imap/!ut/p/z1/pZExb4MwEIV_SwfG-o6EErebw5CkRErbpAm5JTKUAlIwCDux-u9LxZqaSr3Bks_fe_esA4IESMlrVUhTNUqe-_uRwtNqwsWSbzFeREGA4jGa7dbbGcZvD3BwArsQqH_mPAr8TYBrjFHga8Tjfbjc-5uXyYh-jn_T4y8lBv1ofscA-s__e4Dc8Q5AYwg5M8zHgJ8dOIGpD89AxblJh4ULlU55AdTln3mXd-zS9e3SmFY_eeihtZbZLGOqyzS76A_JiubqoVaNHc5TLVtWmvqmWdloA8lND2jr974SrFb3lH7Zu282F_6j/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/#version=102&elements=&networks=!&states=!&counties=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=all&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=false&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=&basinOpacity=100&basinNoDataOpacity=100&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=station&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PERCENTILE&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&year=2019&month=1&day=29&monthPart=E&forecastPubMonth=1&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&seqColor=1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1981&referenceEnd=2010&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=34.0470&lon=-109.6243&zoom=9.0


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## AZ boater

thanks for sharing the link, I was having trouble finding the link for SWE.
Now we just need someone to explain the difference between snowpack and snow water equivalent, using no more than 2 sentences. it is going to be a great AZ season right?


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## kayakingphotog

FWIW

Greetings Fellow Travelers:

Here is a little reminder that there are only a couple of days left to apply for permits to raft the Upper Salt River in Arizona, as well as many of the rivers in the west. Sorry this reminder is coming to you so late, but I was out of touch in furghloughlandia. The application period closes January 31st, so don’t delay if you wish to apply. To do so go to rec.gov and search for Salt River Canyon Wilderness Permit.

Here are some websites if you want to check up on our snow pack, flows, or weather:

The website for SNOTEL data is: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
For the Salt River, under Snow (SNOTEL and Snow Course) click on “Data”. Click on “Daily SWE Report-Current Water Year: By SNOTEL Site”. Click on the drop-down list of states for Arizona and then scroll down to the “Hannigan Meadows” site. Simple, no? Sometimes I also look at “Baldy” which is also in the Salt River Basin. The historic values are also on this site if you want to compare to other years.

For website for current streamflow data in Arizona is: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=flow
Scroll down to the Salt River Basin. The put-in is “Salt River Near Chrysotile” and the take-out is “Salt River Near Roosevelt”.

If you want someone smarter than me to predict the river level, this is the website for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/ Click on the blue dot for “SLC: Salt, Chrysotile, NR” and view the forecast. Click on the forecast if you wish to change the parameters of the prediction.

I usually look at the weather forecast for the coming week on this webpage right before I leave town: http://www.weather.com/maps/planner

Or there is this colorful one from NOAA: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w.html

Currently, at Hannagan Meadows the SNOTEL is showing 6.9 inches of snow water equivalent (swe). This is an El-Nino year, which typically helps out the Upper Salt River Basin snow pack, and we seem to be on the storm track to some degree. They are calling for a storm this weekend and I have a pretty good feeling that, with all of February to go, we should end up with 10 to 15 inches swe, giving us a fair to good season when March rolls around. Of course, I continue to be wrong about things I predict with ridiculous frequency.

As a point of comparison, in 2017 we peaked out at 10 inches swe and it was above 1,000 cfs for all of March (peaking around 2,000), and above 500 for most of April.

If you are going to apply, thanks in advance for the portion of your application fee that we get use to run our small, happy, effective river crew.

Thanks, and good luck.


Forest Service Shield

Don R. Sullivan 
Wilderness River Manager
Forest Service


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## GeoRon

AZ boater said:


> thanks for sharing the link, I was having trouble finding the link for SWE.
> Now we just need someone to explain the difference between snowpack and snow water equivalent, using no more than 2 sentences. it is going to be a great AZ season right?


SWE is the inches of water in the snow-pack if the snow-pack is melted.

Does one sentence suffice?


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## GeoRon

Striving to persevere as an experienced prognosticator, below is my best guess for future Salt flows using the 2016 equivalent of current conditions from the NRCS Snow-to-Flow crystal ball guesstimator and incorporating NOAA Outlooks (best graphically expressed by the Weather Channel "Planner"). 

Peak will be about 3K cfs the last week of February.

Anyone else care to roll the dice or place their bets? Considering that I don't have a first born to wager(wouldn't likely be worth much anyway, ooooo, my business partners the "cats" are giving me a dirty look,,, they are not part of any wager.),,,,, I have nothing to lose.

Always remember, applying for a Salt permit goes directly to a good cause. It is my understanding that application fees go directly to supporting river ranger processes that represent of our best interest and maintenance of a clean river corridor.


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## GeoRon

Now, someone might ask. "WHAT MAKE YOU THINK 3K CFS THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY?".

Well send $10.95 to .... address and I'll tell you why? And there-in is the basis of the creation of the World Wide Web, information at a cost.

Well, actually, if anyone is interested I'll tell you why just let me know so that I just don't feel like prognosticating is pissing away my time.


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## zbaird

ron, damnit, you're talking to yourself again!! You need to get out of the house! Come down anytime and we'll go for a float. A lil slushy right now but its water. 

I'm waiting for the flag boys to give me the call so i can head down for a run. They are thinking same as you with a few storms set up to roll in the next couple weeks back to back. Lemme know if you wanna go. You could come stay here, then we could head out in the am. 9-10 hrs from here depending on how many old man piss breaks you need..


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## Camp Butterfeet

This weekend might be nice


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## Electric-Mayhem

Yep...I'll be gearing up to Jump on it tomorrow...hope my new boat either hasn't shipped(so I can pick it up in person) or it shipped today (so it gets here tomorrow)


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## mattman

3630 at Chrisotile right now, get on it boy's!!!


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## pwolfehagen

Up to 4330 now. Not likely to hold though. The storm moving through looks like it will taper off tomorrow. I'm good for a Friday morning launch if she holds water.


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## Electric-Mayhem

Unless it tanks overnight, I'm sprinting down there and we are gonna launch on Thursday for a two night "no frills" mostly self support trip. It has stopped raining for tonight...but its supposed to start again tomorrow so should stay up at raftable levels through the weekend.


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## Camp Butterfeet

I'd like to drive up (from phx) early Saturday morning and do the day run.


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## SherpaDave

powrider686 said:


> Hey all,
> 
> Wondering what the Buzzards think of the chances of the Salt running this year. I see that most of the snowtel stations in the White Mountains are at or below 50 percent, and not sure what that translates into on the Salt. Any beta much appreciated!




I don’t think it will run this year. You should decline your permit if you win. No reason to waste your $.


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## kayakfreakus

Anybody have a trip report to share?


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## SYOTR

Was up there Sunday for a day run to Hoodoo RAP and it was great! Running about 1100 cfs. Peaked closer to 3000 earlier in the week. SherpaDave, I think it should run fine this year, snowpack is at about average.


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## Fly By Night

Isn't the drainage for the Salt for the two on the eastern part of Arizona showing 74 and 86% of to date average? 

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


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## Junk Show Tours

Fly By Night said:


> Isn't the drainage for the Salt for the two on the eastern part of Arizona showing 74 and 86% of to date average?
> 
> https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf







The Upper Salt is the drainage that shows 74% of avg, but Hannagan Meadows, which generally is the most important site, is sitting at 105% of avg.


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## Fly By Night

Ahhh thank you sir. I take it Hannagan isn't on the map I supplied? 




Paddle Iraq said:


> Fly By Night said:
> 
> 
> 
> Isn't the drainage for the Salt for the two on the eastern part of Arizona showing 74 and 86% of to date average?
> 
> https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Upper Salt is the drainage that shows 74% of avg, but Hannagan Meadows, which generally is the most important site, is sitting at 105% of avg.
Click to expand...


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## codycleve

this breaks down the snowtel sites in the upper salt watershed. 

https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/report...ebruary&textDay=11&CompYearList=select+a+year


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## mikesee

When there's rain on snow, you have to go...


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## randowhite

anybody know what the beta is on tribal permits this year? still a kiosk there?
I haven't been for two years....


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## Electric-Mayhem

I think I saw someone say the Kiosk is gone. You can get info, pay and obtain the permit via the Apache website here... https://wmatoutdoor.org/wp_view.html?pageid=4

I never saw a ranger, Forest Service or Apache, at the put in during my 2017 trips... but it would probably be a good idea to assume they are around. The few accounts I've heard about the Apache rangers are that while not unfriendly, they don't take well to people ignoring their request to obtain a permit and don't seem to buy the ignorance plea i.e. "oh really...I didn't know you had to have a permit".


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## mikesee

No kiosk. Do it online.

Last weekend there were rangers at the put in and take out, and then again back at the put in when we retrieved our shuttle vehicle.


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## pwolfehagen

If one was inclined this weekend looks interesting. 

I however can not make it. But I did clear the schedule and set up a shuttle for a Feb. 22nd launch.


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## codycleve

So do you just need the permit for your launch day? i'm assuming it's the permit that says Special Use: Salt River Access Only. and is it one permit for the group, not each.


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## jamesthomas

Yeah, major tropical moisture streaming up from south of Hawaii. Could be really good. 2k plus being the goal IMO. Supposed to be a very active southern storm track for a while for what that's worth.


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## jamesthomas

I went before permit season in 17 and there was a per person fee to the tribe and you were supposed to have names etc. Nothing for the FS. One person could handle it if they had everyone's info. Seems to me the tribe web site was not that user friendly as well but that could just be me being lame.


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## pwolfehagen

Yeah, it is not real intuitive. If you are going down to the the 288 bridge (Roosevelt) you will need a two day pass for each person on the trip. For the additional people you will need to add them to your profile on the wmatoudoor.org website. Use the Rafting Private Daily permit, choose the person from the dropdown box, and put 2 into the days box. You will be paying $50 per person.
If you are doing the daily run process is the same but only 1 day in the second box.


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## pwolfehagen

And yes, no river permit from the forest service before March 1st. You will want a Tonto Pass for your vehicle. This is a daily hang tag for parked vehicles in the National Forest that you can pick up at many places locally (Circle K in Show Low or Globe).


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## topbud

If you look at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) it's going over 2000.
https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
It is the SLC site, can't just go by this, but it started raining in Flagstaff.

Get the permit online, you can save the permit electronically to your phone. Got checked at put in and saw the ranger leaving TO as we were pulling in.


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## rioj

Anyone interested in launching Feb 24 on the salt as we are down one boat to one solo cat and would like to have an extra boater on board.


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## go-with-the-Flo

*Is there snow on the ground at the put-in?*

I am planning to try to launch on Feb 28. The flows could be there (>1000 cfs) but my main concern is: is there snow on the ground as of today and how much? Anyone knows?


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## WyBackCountry

go-with-the-Flo said:


> I am planning to try to launch on Feb 28. The flows could be there (>1000 cfs) but my main concern is: is there snow on the ground as of today and how much? Anyone knows?



That's a good question as I know there is a storm rolling through up north in Showlow starting tomorrow that's supposedly going to dump upwards of 32" of snow.


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## semievolved

go-with-the-Flo said:


> I am planning to try to launch on Feb 28. The flows could be there (>1000 cfs) but my main concern is: is there snow on the ground as of today and how much? Anyone knows?


you want any company? i have frame on paddle cat but am looking to self support. You?


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## semievolved

rioj said:


> Anyone interested in launching Feb 24 on the salt as we are down one boat to one solo cat and would like to have an extra boater on board.


i am interested but that quick will be hard to make and there is supposed to be a pretty good storm around then. would you consider the 28th?

dave 505-501-1686


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## zbaird

You may want to call the office before you plan to launch on the 28th. I thought I saw somewhere that you need to be out of the wilderness section on the 28th. I could be wrong but it would suck to get ticketed and all your shit seized. 

Also, if they do get the 2-3' predicted, there will probably be snow on the ground.


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## PA81301

I have a Mar 3 launch permit and I can't go anymore. 

Looking or someone to transfer this permit to....


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## semievolved

PA81301 said:


> I have a Mar 3 launch permit and I can't go anymore.
> 
> Looking or someone to transfer this permit to....


please give me a call!

dave 505-501-1686


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## Chief Niwot

I have not had the opportunity to canoe the Salt and I have a couple of questions. We have been issued a permit for putting on April 24th. In looking at the daily mean ave (USGS 09497500 SALT RIVER NEAR CHRYSOTILE, AZ), it looks like the flow on April 24th is 1,480cfs. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dvs...=file&submitted_form=parameter_selection_list


From the Salt experienced paddlers, considering the winter so far and if it keeps up, I am curious if there will be this kind of water that late this year? What weather location do you normally use for the Salt?

Thanks for any thoughtful input.


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## waterdude

End of April is a tricky time, as if it warms up quickly in the West even with an above-average snowpack, this blows out in a few weeks among the smaller watersheds and the bottom falls out flow-wise. Keeping an eye on the SNOTEL sites, which for the upper Salt drainage are currently reading 70% median SWE and 105% precip-to-date (https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Western+US), which is neither great nor terrible...but checking daily the temps at these sites closer to your launch can give you an idea how much water is stored as well as how quickly its melting. In terms of the average flows, it is my understanding the historic hydrograph average has been weighted by many years of higher flow across the 80s, 90s, and 2000s that have become increasingly infrequent, so is not a fair assessment of what its like now...but perhaps some more local folks can give a better testimony of that. 

Anecdotally I've been trying to get on the Salt for the last 5 years and had to bail on two permits both in April (early and late) because flow went well under 1200. This is a level at which it gets too boney for gear rafts though still remains runnable in a ducky and perhaps a canoe down to a few hundred CFS but of course YMMV. My fingers are crossed for late-March run this year 8)


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## Chief Niwot

Thanks for the input, 94/112 as of today!


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## DoStep

It's gonna be busy next week. Any excessive 'impacts to the resource' at the end of the non-permit season will result in expanding the permit season, and we all know how that worked out with the 'unsuccessful lottery applications' emails that most of us received. Bring your toilets and firepans and behave like there are other people out there with you and there may be a chance that permit season won't grow.


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## jamesthomas

DoStep has it right. Treat the river, any river with respect. Dont leave your shit or other garbage around for others to deal with permit or no permit. 
Do the right thing and leave no trace. Pretty simple.


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## codycleve

113% this morning. Hoping to have a good flow come march 18th. 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## randowhite

Does anyone know of a shuttle company that offers secure storage for our vehicles while we're on the river? We used to use Forest and the Rock House , but that option has disappeared. We're leary of leaving our vehicles at the take out lot or the put-in for storage for that matter. Any help much appreciated .

Randy White


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## BGillespie

randowhite said:


> Does anyone know of a shuttle company that offers secure storage for our vehicles while we're on the river? We used to use Forest and the Rock House , but that option has disappeared. We're leary of leaving our vehicles at the take out lot or the put-in for storage for that matter. Any help much appreciated .
> 
> Randy White


RiverMaps lists the following options:
Salt River Rafting www.raftthesalt.com
Wilderness Aware Rafting www.inaraft.com
Mild to Wild Rafting www.mild2wildrafting.com
Canyon Rio www.canyonrio.com

Do not know if any offer storage. Currently researching these companies to make a decision.


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## zbaird

We just used SRR last week. $125 first, $100 addl. M2W quoted me $165/125.

I asked them to shuttle as close to out T/O date as possible as the put in seems busier/ more secure than the T/O. Not sure how long the trucks sat at the T/O but they were all there unscathed.

Dude I talked to down there said that the takeout break ins have been dealt with and that there haven't been any the last few years. He said he tipped off the sheriff and they did some sting ops down there that cleaned it up and sent a message to the globe meth heads that its a bad idea.


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## SYOTR

Just got off a three day trip, our third trip of this spring, and there were at least a dozen vehicles at both the put in and take out. It's a three hour round trip shuttle, so you might consider the shuttle just to save time. But otherwise it's perfectly safe to use the T/O and P/I lot.


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## Camp Butterfeet

Plenty of water this season


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## mania

Had a great trip last weekend around 3900 but just got this from Don. I like the all bets are off part. :shock:



> Greetings Everybody:
> 
> Ok, The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CBRFC) are, like myself, often incorrect. I like to think that my incorrectness is broader, covering many more areas and aspects of life, and so, much more complete than theirs.
> 
> Sometimes they are right on the money though, and I think it is never hurts to know what their model is predicting for the next 10 days:
> 
> If your river trip launches this week, you might want to involve this in your discussion.
> 
> I agree that this could happen. The 10-day weather forecast for Alpine AZ (at 8,035 ft. and near our 8,000, and mostly 9,000 ft. snow pack) is calling for a 3-day storm which moves in the evening of the 10th snowing and then turns to rain for the whole day of the 11th. Then it gets colder and turns to snow for the next day or two.
> 
> This storm could rain off some or all of our 8,000 ft. snow, in which case, I think they are probably correct. If the storm is colder, it could still easily come up to 5,000 or more. If it is warmer and hits the 9,000 ft. snow with rain, all bets are off, maybe 80,000 or 90,000 cfs.
> 
> Different people like different water levels for boating on the Salt. My perspective is that if you have a bad run in one of the gorges on the Salt at 15,000 cfs. you could take a long swim in very cold water.
> 
> Hopefully, it starts out cold, stays that way, and adds more snow up there. If so, that will really help you people in April and May.
> 
> Heads up. Be safe out there.


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## GeoRon

I spend my spring calibrating my thought processes based upon the Salt. I track it closely and track it closely using all available parameters.

ABSOLUTELY BORDERLINE, it could go huge by a shift of wet "warm" versus "cool" snow where the residual snow pack exist, which seems to be concentrated high. In Arizona/New Mexico they are called "Sky Islands" 

The CBRFC forecast prognosticates peak run off from this event at about 16K but the model is biased strongly to minor fluctuations in the freezing level in this "sky island" topography. That is, most of your water is up high but perhaps most of your model is biased low in terms of regional low elevation norms.

This is kinda complex but the Salt runoff exists in a setting whereby if that "sky island" of snow pack is hit by "warmer" rain versus "cooler" snow and you are on the river about a day/day-and-a-half down stream expect to be FLUSHED. This is what Don Sullivan is suggesting.

Attached is a graphic defining current complexities, and to be frank... I don't make this shit up. If you shift model freezing elevations UP and areal temps UP slightly this model changes radically. 

Defined within the yellow rectangle are the parameters that controls big flows versus f'in huge flows. CAMP HIGH AND TIE UP YOUR BOATS TIGHT THEN SIT TIGHT UNTIL FLOW RECEDES!!!!!!


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## waterdude

Always appreciate the candor and humor from Don's dispatches. I'm just putting this out there, I pulled a 3/26 permit and happy to hook up any folks who maybe pushed off these next few weeks from their draws for what could otherwise be BIG flows on the Salt.


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