# El No Snow



## cadster

Forecast of a major change for the Sierra Nevada next week, see
http://weatherwest.com/current_weather/?p=386

I wonder what it’ll mean for the Rockies and SW.


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## goldcamp

*Data presented reflects past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. *

*It could turn at any minute and hopefully it will. But this doesn't bode well for the kayaking. *


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## cadster

This shows the heavy precip making it to AZ:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif


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## goldcamp

cadster said:


> Forecast of a major change for the Sierra Nevada next week, see
> http://weatherwest.com/current_weather/?p=386
> 
> I wonder what it’ll mean for the Rockies and SW.


According to snowforecast.com this will be good for colorado too. Good website BTW.


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## heliodorus04

Interesting thing about that graph is how infrequently year-lines cross the average line.

It does not bode well at all.


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## bobbuilds

10$ says we are back on track by the end of the month. come on boys, where is your faith.............


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## Riparian

goldcamp said:


> According to snowforecast.com this will be good for colorado too. Good website BTW.


Yep, snowforecast.com combined with NWS forecasts come pretty close to reality. Right now, both are saying that the next wave of storms next week will weaken before they get to us. Earlier this week they were far more optimistic...


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## Porkchop

The Good News: still got half of January, still got all of February, still got all of March, still got all of April. And the law of averages says...... Truly I can't remember a good March which is historically is our best snow month. right??? I'm hoping for a giant March.

The Bad News: It sucks out there right now!


PRAY FOR SNOW!!!!!


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## cadster

Forecasting feet for San Juans:

Heavy Mountain Snows Possible Next Week


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## cadster

NM NWS briefing:
NWS Albuquerque Special Multi-Media Web Briefing


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## DurangoSteve

> ... Significant weather pattern change arrives next week...
> 
> High pressure over the western United States will be breaking down
> this weekend... bringing an end to the recent dry weather across
> eastern Utah and western Colorado by early next week. This will
> allow a series of moist Pacific storms to pass over the region
> beginning late Monday and continuing through Friday.
> 
> As these storms move through... expect widespread snow to develop
> over the southern mountains and valleys Monday night... spreading
> north by midweek. However... warmer air will eventually filter into
> the area... resulting in snow changing over to rain for many of the
> lower valleys... especially across southeast Utah and west central
> Colorado. By Tuesday afternoon... snow levels are expected to vary
> between 6000 and 7000 feet.
> 
> Very heavy snowfall will occur over the southern mountains of western
> Colorado and eastern Utah as individual disturbances pass through. By
> the end of the week... snowfall amounts in excess of 3 feet will be
> possible over the highest elevations of southwest Colorado... with
> significant accumulations also possible at lower elevations from
> Cortez east through Pagosa Springs.


Bueno!


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## cadster

If you want a snowpack summary for each basin in CO, go here:

SNOTEL Basin Time Series Snowpack Summary Graphs | Colorado NRCS


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## deepstroke

During an El Nino year, snow is usually weak in Jan and Feb and strong in March and April resulting in an average snowpack. Things are gonna get better, just not right away.


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## DurangoSteve

Interesting forecast discussion about California... that could impact SW Colorado as well.



> _Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done. But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at low er elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas._
> 
> _This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions)._
> 
> _In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer._
> 
> _In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point du ring this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned._
> 
> _Steve Murray
> Dean, College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
> California State University, Fullerton
> Phone: 657-278-2638; FAX: 657-278-5390_


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## lmyers

I hope things materialize the way the forecasts are predicting...yea for the pineapple express - last time I remember that happening we ended up with 36 inches in 48 hours!


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## DurangoSteve

lmyers said:


> I hope things materialize the way the forecasts are predicting...yea for the pineapple express - last time I remember that happening we ended up with 36 inches in 48 hours!


Yeah, if the "pineapple express" sets up, the snowfall could be really amazing. I remember a 36 hr storm back in '96 (I think) that dumped 62" at our house. We went from next to no snow on the ground to epic coverage. I recall walking up the snowpile to get onto the roof to shovel it.


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## blutzski

ya'll are just reading the graph wrong. 
2007 started out with a bang and petered out.
2008 and 2009 started out weak and ended with a bang.
By my calculations, the uber-weak start to 2010 means we'll have 143.8% by spring runoff.


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## bobbuilds

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I like your math, who makes your calculator?


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## cadster

CA news:

Drought-busting El Niño has come to town


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## DurangoSteve

Extreme dumpage in the San Juans. 23 inches since Tuesday at our house and the meat of the storm arrives tonight/tomorrow. Mmmm, water.


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## Jahve

Yea el no snow.

It is fkn pukin snow where I find myself tonight..


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## grandyoso

RDNEK said:


> Yea el no snow.
> 
> It is fkn pukin snow where I find myself tonight..


Fkn Nothin and my sister just called me and says Purgatory was awesome. We have had nothin in my ski town.... Snowless in Fraser:sad:
And I think this is the first time that I have used an emoticon....


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## Canada

20+ inches so far in the Wasatch. I hiked a loop this morning and it was awesome. God I love powder!!


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## El Flaco

I often wish I had never left Durango. This is one of those times.


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## DurangoSteve

Craziness out there. 16 inches of CEMENT at 7660' elevation from last night to 11 am. The window on the north side of our house is completely covered... gotta dig it out... once I get done trying to coax the snowblower to blow cement. It's very grumpy. The water content of this latest storm is phenomenal. Wettest snow I can recall in 18 yrs at our house.


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## rwhyman

Here in the Parker area, we haven't had a drop of moisture. Talked to a buddy in Pine,AZ this morning and he is just getting hammered for the last couple of days. Looks like a good year for the Salt, although I just got notified that I was unsuccessful for a permit.
Anybody get any good news on the Salt?


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## DurangoSteve

Epic storm in Durango. Here's what it looks like at 7660' elevation.


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## Jahve

"Oh there must be 50 inches up there..."

Was best quote from the trailhead yesterday...

Yep this was a epic storm..


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## Porkchop

EL HELL YEAH!!!!! shit One dump away from being average and everyones in the shitter.... THIS IS COLORADO LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT. I don know bout you guys but i've been a skiin POW POW the last three days and will be skiing it again tomorrow. shit and i aint any where close to the San Jauns those kids really got stomped. It'll snow!!


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## fids11

*Finally some significant snowfall!! Skied Snowmass on Saturday - was pretty good for only reporting 4 inches. Lapped Hanging Valley Wall 4 times and found lots of waist deep powder - it was in there; just have to be clever about it. Here's a youtube link to what the conditions were like on Sat. if anyone is interested. We're kind of hacks but we have a good time! 

YouTube - Snowmass Powder Skiing Hanging Valley Wall

Went to Vail on Sunday and it was super deep (had to be 13+ back there) in the back bowls - REALLY crowded though - like Presidents Day crowded. Had a blast though, looking forward to a BIG february and march 

*


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## lmyers

Yeah, it's
not too bad
in this neck-of-the-woods-either...


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## caseybailey

fids11 said:


> *Finally some significant snowfall!! Skied Snowmass on Saturday - was pretty good for only reporting 4 inches. Lapped Hanging Valley Wall 4 times and found lots of waist deep powder - it was in there; just have to be clever about it.*


 Looks sweet, but waist deep? You should do the snow reports for all the areas. I'm sure they'd love to hire you.


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## fids11

caseybailey said:


> Looks sweet, but waist deep? You should do the snow reports for all the areas. I'm sure they'd love to hire you.



My bullsh#t - CALLED! I think I meant knee deep but my wishful thinking brain typed 'waist'. The lesson is, as always, I'm an idiot.....


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## ENDOMADNESS

Weird microsystems had Vail balls deep both days (sunday and monday). Weather (wind) and crowds were sizeable....but well worth it. I would say there was 18" in the back on Sunday. 12" plus on top of that for monday morning.

here is a video from the vail site for Monday morning

Vail Videos - Mountain Videos | Vail.com


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## caseybailey

18"...balls deep? Either you are 2 years old or you are 90 and SUPER saggy!


ENDOMADNESS said:


> Weird microsystems had Vail balls deep both days (sunday and monday). Weather (wind) and crowds were sizeable....but well worth it. I would say there was 18" in the back on Sunday. 12" plus on top of that for monday morning.
> 
> here is a video from the vail site for Monday morning
> 
> Vail Videos - Mountain Videos | Vail.com


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## ENDOMADNESS

I am 90 years old with manhood of 2 year old. You hit both with one swipe.

Not sure where you were skiing...check out these shots from buddies (also a TGR thread)


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## caseybailey

Is that Vail or Jackson? Sick! Looks like the time I dropped my helmet in the snow.
I'm a bit south of you. We had aound 2' out of the whole storm cycle. I had to use Comet to scrub the smile off my face.


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## ENDOMADNESS

Sneaky storm as Vail reported 9" this day...A-basin got 1" + 1" out of this cycle. 

Beaver Creek like 6 miles away got about 1/4 as much snow as Vail

Much needed stoke...legs are very sore.


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## Ricky NM

Strange storm up north for sure. The consensus in our group was mid-thigh in areas of Vail's back bowls. Massive crowds, but every single one of us needed a day like that. I'm praying that the pattern shift holds true.


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## DurangoSteve

Looks like more widespread dumpage this storm. Hell, El Nino's even dangling down NM way.


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## double-H

My Dad said we're getting it all down here in Texas and Arkansas because of El Nino. We have creeks running here and up in Arkansas that haven't run in 5 or more years.


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