# Current Bear Creek Conditions



## kuuskv (Nov 28, 2008)

Can anyone report current conditions on bear creek? The gauge has been offline for several days now (although the foot gauge has still been registering). I am assuming the river is still flooded, but has anyone seen it in the past 24-48 hours?

How about road conditions going up the canyon? 

Wood reports?

Lost/found gear? (I lost a paddle on Thursday...)


Thanks!


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Bear creek is still bigger than I want. I would guess its in the 1200 cfs range right now based on the gauge height reported on the bear creek at morrison gauge. I put together the above chart that extrapolates the rating table to higher gauge readings (as did at least one other of my paddling buddies). Take gauge height off of the morrison gauge and read off the cfs on the chart. Each tick on the x axis is 0.1 ft... 

I think bear may be in tomorrow, but its hard to say as the decline is very slow right now. I would get on it at the 700-750 levels we had thursday before it went nuclear. Thats about my limit as there were still places at that flow that it was very hard to stop if the shit hit the fan.

I do not know what the wood situation is after the high water. I'd really like to hike the entire creek to check out the wood. If anyone does that please post up NEW wood situations. Many people have noted that bear was in the trees or that there were tree hazards, but I suspect that some of those were already there.

I have been looking at the decline on the evergreen gauge to keep an eye on how fast it is dropping upstream, as well as looking at the gauge height on the online gauge and using my correlation to figure the cfs. 

For the brave, there are definitely parts of bear that you could run right now, but damn there are some big ass spots that will beat you down and strip your of your gear in a hurry.


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## Phillips (Feb 19, 2004)

Damn. . . Everything will be different when I get back. Bear, Blackrock, Boulder creek will all have new moves. 





deepsouthpaddler said:


> Bear creek is still bigger than I want. I would guess its in the 1200 cfs range right now based on the gauge height reported on the bear creek at morrison gauge. I put together the above chart that extrapolates the rating table to higher gauge readings (as did at least one other of my paddling buddies). Take gauge height off of the morrison gauge and read off the cfs on the chart. Each tick on the x axis is 0.1 ft...
> 
> I think bear may be in tomorrow, but its hard to say as the decline is very slow right now. I would get on it at the 700-750 levels we had thursday before it went nuclear. Thats about my limit as there were still places at that flow that it was very hard to stop if the shit hit the fan.
> 
> ...


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## tango (Feb 1, 2006)

I drove up there yesterday. Still huge. The trees hanging over the dam drop look like they have collapsed over the creek. Possible portage. 

I can paddle Friday after work. Willing to run it under 900ish.


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

Mjpowhound posted a link about Bear Creek Lake being at 5 times capacity two days ago.They are only releasing around 250 cfs.With 1200 cfs inflow,I am a little paranoid.I guess they would release more if they were worried about it.Still., how much can that lake /dam take?Too bad that the town run is not better.They may be draining it for awhile.


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## El Scotto (Jul 24, 2013)

I drove up the canyon this morning, road conditions are fine. I think Ian is correct that it is probably around 1200 cfs right now. There is still a lot of water coming over the top of the reservoir dam, and above the dam the reservoir is still out of its banks, which means this high flow will likely persist for a while.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

I would not worry about the dam. The dam was designed as a flood control structure to protect denver and downstream, so its designed to hold back a lot of water. 

I would also take the gauge readings with a grain of salt. High water was rolling rocks down bear creek continuously when I was out there on sunday. Sounded like a dull distant thunder. The floods will scour the channel, removing a lot of small size sand and rock, and this could make the channel wider and deeper. What that means is that the gauge could read low on the cfs for a given height, but the creek may be carrying more water if the channel has been rearranged after the flood. This could be the same for all drainages impacted by the flood until gauges get recalibrated.


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## kburris (Nov 12, 2006)

Evergreen Bear Creek Guage is at 752 right now and there may be additional 30% to 40% of that coming in from Cub Creek and small tributaries. On a bike ride up the canyon, there are willows laying over the river. Went from 1225 at Sundays peak to 900 yesterday and 750 today. Will likely see evergreen guage down at 450 to 500 by Thursday. I am up for a hike up the canyon. Want to find Dave's paddle.


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## benpetri (Jul 2, 2004)

cayo 2 said:


> Mjpowhound posted a link about Bear Creek Lake being at 5 times capacity two days ago.They are only releasing around 250 cfs.With 1200 cfs inflow,I am a little paranoid.I guess they would release more if they were worried about it.Still., how much can that lake /dam take?Too bad that the town run is not better.They may be draining it for awhile.


That thing is nowhere near its total flood capacity. I'm guessing he's saying it's 5x their normal operating level, but the normal operating level is just a small fraction of the total capacity, and kept for use as a recreational lake. Cherry Creek and Chatfield Reservoirs operate the same way. If need be they will flood that entire park behind the dam to keep the water out of Denver.


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## mjpowhound (May 5, 2006)

benpetri said:


> That thing is nowhere near its total flood capacity. I'm guessing he's saying it's 5x their normal operating level, but the normal operating level is just a small fraction of the total capacity, and kept for use as a recreational lake. Cherry Creek and Chatfield Reservoirs operate the same way. If need be they will flood that entire park behind the dam to keep the water out of Denver.


Yes, I think that's what they mean, but the Army Corps of Engineers' website says capacity of the dam is 2,000 AF (which is what it was at before the rain event) and it's currently storing about 6x that. Clearly there is a LOT more room there. It's quite a sight from Alameda seeing how large the lake is right now! And yes, they are flooding a good portion of the park.


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## bobbuilds (May 12, 2007)

We had a visual of bear creek today, we did not run it, it must be 1000cfs or better.

The top drop was a huge flushy mean hole into the main falls which had a monster hole.

the boil line went back 10' with not a lot else going on. It looked really mean.

anyway,

visual, still high for mortals, go get it boys...


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

No fun falls high 700's Evergreen


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## kburris (Nov 12, 2006)

I just walked ~1.25 miles up the south side of Bear Creek from Morrison until I was cliffed out. That side can be accessed from our water treatment plant. No sign of lost boats nor paddles. Looks like ~ 1100 CFS. No sweepers or trees down, but there is a section 1/2 mile above Morrison where you want to take the right channel due to debris and low trees. Looks pretty burly.


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Hmmm. Not sure why the attachment didn't work but let's just say it is still raging.


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Another attempt at adding a photo


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Lair of the Bear


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Denver/Boulder: Bear Creek at Morrison


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

I've done some gauge geek work on predicting flows for Bear Creek at Morrison. Used Roy's equation to convert stage to flow. Downloaded stage data, and then used forecasting decline methods to predict flows into the future. For hydro-geek folks... fluid flow through porous media (subsurface runoff) follows a decline that can be estimated as a straight line on a semi-log chart.

I've taken a stab at predicting what flows will be (noted on the chart)

Prediction:
Today: 900 after work, stompy flows, major carnage potential
Tomorrow: 600 mid day, 500 after work, money flows
Friday: 400 dropping to 300 through the day. Still great flows, less stompy, but action.
Saturday: mid to low 200's, low water, but higher than the 150ish bear gets regularly run at.

I will try to update these charts daily to help predict when bear will be in. I know lots of folks, myself included, are trying to figure out when bear will drop in.


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

I live in Genesee South well above Bear Creek and I can hear the creek from my deck.


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

DEEPSTROKE,

I recognize the 1st shot looking down No Fun...where on Lair is that apx?Thinking of checking out that run 400ish.if it is not a log jam...


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Lair of the Bear can be scouted just upstream of a green, east bound sign for Red Rocks, between two yellow curve signs, 25 on the west bound sign. I forgot to mention that it has really cleaned up. In the photo, there used to be a bush around that ledge on the left. It's now gone as is brush and logs that pinched the flow right as it turns away from the cliff. It's much cleaner and wider now. I'll try to post a photo. Also, when I posted the link there was a forecast for the levels for the next three days and it did not decline as rapidly as Ian's forecast. I think it was calling for 7.6 on Saturday.


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

The new cleaned up exit to Lair of the Bear as it flows way from the cliff. Sorry for the sideways photo, can't figure how to rotate the iPhone photo.


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

sounds like we are talking about different things...I think you are referring to Hair of the Bear rapid (near the normal takeout) ..I meant the IV run above the normal run, with Lair of the Bear park in the middle of it....


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Yeah, I thought the last rapid was called Lair of the Bear, although I have been calling it Hair of the Bear due to it's intensity. There are some good rapids upstream such as one on a right bend, but there's also a lot of low bridges and not many eddys.


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## deepstroke (Apr 3, 2005)

Above the standard run mid day Mon with high 700's in Evergreen.


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## crackeryaker (Oct 15, 2003)

deepsouthpaddler said:


> I've done some gauge geek work on predicting flows for Bear Creek at Morrison. Used Roy's equation to convert stage to flow. Downloaded stage data, and then used forecasting decline methods to predict flows into the future. For hydro-geek folks... fluid flow through porous media (subsurface runoff) follows a decline that can be estimated as a straight line on a semi-log chart.
> 
> I've taken a stab at predicting what flows will be (noted on the chart)
> 
> ...


Thanks for sharing Ian!! I'd be down for a run tomorrow after work, anyone want to carpool from Boulder?


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

My guess is that the decline won't be linear but will rather stabilize in the 200 range for a week or so.


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## kuuskv (Nov 28, 2008)

Bear gauge is back on line!

840 at 11:45 Wednesday night.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Yep, gauge online. Flows have dropped back into the rating table limits. Above is my latest forecast trend analysis. Johnny is probably right that at some point the exponential decay will flatten out, but the interpretation I have now is my best guess. Hard to say when the flow decline might change because we have no data to base this off of, and I don't have the modeling tools the USGS and NOAA have (wish I did).

The current updates uses only the data since the gauge came back online and the decline is slower than what I predicted yesterday. Its gonna be stompy tonight, and should be really good all weekend. 

Look forward to seeing folks out at Bear Creek. Whoever gets in first, please give us a wood report. Thanks!


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## stubby (Oct 13, 2003)

cayo 2 said:


> Mjpowhound posted a link about Bear Creek Lake being at 5 times capacity two days ago.They are only releasing around 250 cfs.With 1200 cfs inflow,I am a little paranoid.I guess they would release more if they were worried about it.Still., how much can that lake /dam take?Too bad that the town run is not better.They may be draining it for awhile.


Anyone think they'll keep the flows up a little bit if they wanna bring the reservoir volume back down to 100% capacity, rather than 500% per mjpowhound?

It'd be rad if they ran it at 300 for a couple weeks!


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

You talking Evergreen or Bear Creek Lake? They may release from both.The lower lake I 'd think for sure.It would be great if they had the normal run and lair over 300.Normally people get excited if the regular run gets above 150. 250 is probably minimum tor Lair to be worth it to most people.Ran it 175 once, only so so and most are pickier than me.300 is ok through town but it is mostly flat with a few 3 - 's.


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## mjpowhound (May 5, 2006)

The lake I was referring to is below the canyon. Evergreen is always full and just spills I think.


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## stubby (Oct 13, 2003)

Damn! I was super excited for a few. That makes a lot more sense then that bear is above capacity.


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## Roy (Oct 30, 2003)

The current condition of Bear Creek is Open for Bidness!

The high water seems to have flushed things out more than anything. Even the willows from above seemed better, but that's likely due to more lines available around them with the high water.

Of note:

The artificial "Hobbit Hole" at the first rapid is full of wood, but the left line around it goes at this flow--watch for the strainer on the right side of that line. Not sure how low that line will work.

No Fun is HUGE!

The right line at the bridge blew out, and looks good to go, although we ported it.

The dam is a definite no-go. 

We continued below the dam, but were chased out by darkness just before Hair of the Bear, so there could still be some new hazards in there. We looked from above on the way up and didn't see any, but boat heads up!

Get it while it's hot!


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## kabzak (Feb 29, 2012)

here's a video from No Fun dropping to 700cfs
No Fun Falls at Bear Creek - YouTube


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

In addition to Roy's beta...

The hobbit hole, aka no scout falls, or the bridge drop... Mature cottonwood down across the main line under the bridge. At high flows some water goes left around or over the submerged center island. Its manky as hell over there, and there is some wood and pin rocks. I would recommend a scout of this drop. To scout, discretely park, and hike down from the downstream side of the large rock outcropping. 

Whole tree has fallen into the water below the dam, shutting it down. Some highly motivated lumberjacking might be able to clear this sucker before flows drop, but its a definite portage. 

No fun falls and the double ledge below the slide are the top two swim producers from my observations. 

Bear creek will be great all weekend! Get it while its here. I don't expect to paddle it again this high in my paddling career.


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## tango (Feb 1, 2006)

sitting at the take out by myself. who wants to rally ??


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

From large log jam portage to takeout is clear of wood. Current conditions: stompy with a chance of beat down. You can make it under the low bridge below no fun. Go right of the island above to set up.


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## jonny water (Oct 28, 2003)

I hope to get a run in tomorrow morning if any one wants to meet up. I would like to run above the normal section also.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Hey Jon. Lots of folks meeting at the takeout at 10am. Come join us. Doubt there will be much interest in upper stuff. We have figured out the wood on the main run and its at primo levels right now. 

Beware of the ledge holes below the slide today. Good scout. I counted 7 holes of varying size culminating in the two back to back swim producers. Eddy out river left after the holes and be prepared to run up and grab surfers out by hand by grabbing them and pulling them out.


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## chrispy (Apr 6, 2004)

Bear creek is hard


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## leif (Jul 11, 2009)

Task, I can't wait to see spencer's post to the swim board...


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

StIill looking good at around 5:15...No Fun scary to me but looked good for a lot of you guys...spent way too much time scouting /driving the creek.....upper run report : the drop Deepsttoke posted pic of still looks pretty good ....Gates backyard drop hole looked unadvisable....a lot of bridges that look barely limboable in pretty pushy water =way sketchy....mostly flushed not wood infested though...below Corwina the dam below the low bridge looked like a portage a couple large objects getting worked in it..might be runnable on extreme left, sane people will portage...right below this the undercut boulder that blocks most of the river at lower flows looked easy to make the line (center angling left) ..right after this Dunsmore Castle drop, normally s 4-5 foot. vertical ledge has tongue /slide
on the left (clandestine scouting next to a wedding reception) ..fast III down to Lair o 'the Bear park...park closed so? ??...carried up from Little Park to at least tun something..put in below low bridge at bottom of LO B park..the last part I thought would be full of wood was flushed...basically one ultra continuous tight 4-:rapid 3/8 of a mile long..no big drops or tough moves but fast and dodging hard to see FU rocks....looked like good 3 continuing down to other put in.....

..right after that Dunsmore Castle drop normally a 4-5 foot ledge had younger /slide on the left


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

sorry can 't edit bottom of long posts on a kindle very easily....took longer to gear up than do run...would like to go back tomorrow if still in .....have to work until 4 or so, so can 't commit..surprised not one boater up there late afternoon except somebody with an orange Habitat.on their car eating(?) in Morrison....what is with the traffic in that town ?)


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## El Scotto (Jul 24, 2013)

*Giddy up!!*

El Scotto would love to get on Bear tomorrow, any time. Preferably with someone who has run in recently, like, today. What's the game plan for tomorrow's Bear carnage?


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Land owner at bridge drop / no scout falls was hanging out with a rifle on her shoulder today. Couple of us took the mank left channel and got out to look at the pin/wood situation as the flows dropped. We saw the land owner after we got out and she was not happy. That drop is a POS now that the tree blocks the line. 

Saw a yellow and orange boat pinned midstream on wood pile. I think it was below the big slide but above the dam. Didn't see it yesterday. Could have been new today or could have been underwater the last several days. 

I thought it was a bit harder today that at 700. Holes are munchy ledges that are defined, and there Is mank coming out. High water covered the mank and filled and flushed many holes. Great to see the bear creek rally with lots of paddlers today. 

Scotto, I'm sitting out nursing a f'ed up finger that required an emergency ring removal. Otherwise I'd be there.


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

was thinking for the sake of comparison that run is like a cleaner lefthand or a pushier -tighter middle tenmile, but with bridge issues depending where you run...


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## Phillips (Feb 19, 2004)

Glad you guys got bear creek at those record levels! My personal high was 400 and I swam twice. Can't even imagine it at 700. I bet second slide is super stompy. Lair of the Bear would be a complete blur. I'm back in town Columbus Day weekend. I'll be looking for some Gore peeps.





deepsouthpaddler said:


> Land owner at bridge drop / no scout falls was hanging out with a rifle on her shoulder today. Couple of us took the mank left channel and got out to look at the pin/wood situation as the flows dropped. We saw the land owner after we got out and she was not happy. That drop is a POS now that the tree blocks the line.
> 
> Saw a yellow and orange boat pinned midstream on wood pile. I think it was below the big slide but above the dam. Didn't see it yesterday. Could have been new today or could have been underwater the last several days.
> 
> ...


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## Phillips (Feb 19, 2004)

And bushy



chrispy said:


> Bear creek is hard


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## chrispy (Apr 6, 2004)

Tree down across the whole river just above the takeout. Easy to see . portage left... two of us ducked under on right but it was sketch... leif decided to portage cause he's so tall. Freemont removed kyle's yellow pyrana today with kyle and tina's help. Or the other way around.


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## barely (Apr 12, 2006)

Looking to make a lap tomorrow evening if anyone's up for it. Can be at takeout by 5:00
Baird
720 320-8342


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## El Scotto (Jul 24, 2013)

This morning we placed an orange cone well above the diversion dam on river left to indicate the approach of the dam. Stay left when you see the cone and get out in the shallow left channel. There is a large tree down just below the dam that makes the drop even nastier.


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## chrispy (Apr 6, 2004)

The footbridge over the horizon line is a dead giveaway


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## Phillips (Feb 19, 2004)

chrispy said:


> The footbridge over the horizon line is a dead giveaway


Yes it is. I can't believe I'm not there. Today would be a great day to not be in class :-?


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Gotta say that sept 2013 bear creek season will go down in the history books as some of the best bear creek paddling in the last 20 yrs.

We have some serious wood cleaning to do to get bear back to form though. Tree below the dam has to go. Tree in the first drop has to go... but the landowner probably has to do that. 

My personal swim bush on the river right next to the beefy ledge below the slide has to go. 

After the water recedes, we need to mount a clean up to be ready for whenever the next time she flows is.


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## El Scotto (Jul 24, 2013)

I've got two chainsaws and some other implements of destruction for creek cleaning. The next couple weeks might be a good time to get in there.


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## tango (Feb 1, 2006)

Who got on bear at the highest flow? Several groups got out on Thursday the 12th. Anybody paddle the 13th?


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Heard reports of a fri and sat run. Must have been huge. I looked at bear Sunday and it was raging. No fun falls looked terrifying. I got on it at 700 on the way up and down and that was plenty for me.


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## hojo (Jun 26, 2008)

Just talked to usgs guys in bear creek park. They're surveying the high water mark to determine peak flows. The first bridge on the right as you drive in has the new gauge and they're using the bridge constriction as a weir for calculating the flow. The guy said preliminary estimates of the peak flow was between 1500 and 1700.


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