# 2018 Permit Commiseration Thread



## mattman (Jan 30, 2015)

Ha ha!
Just looked at four rivers results and figured I would find this years version of this thread!
No valentines day "love" for me either, or Juan 2 days ago, crossing fingers for Dino now.

Will still be a great season no matter what though, low water, no permits, but will still get out there and have a great time!


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## Jdsampsonite (Dec 7, 2015)

It is frustrating to spend a $100 just for a chance to go on these trips and not get drawn year after year. I have not been drawn yet, luckily I have had someone in my group get drawn the last 2 years for the Salt. To get one person drawn it has taken me convincing 15 people to submit, luckily its close by so its not as hard. Unfortunately with the other trips its hard to get people to commit to going that distance so I only get like 3 takers on submitting for those. I feel I must be insane to keep throwing my money at them and not getting to go. Keeping my fingers crossed for Dino hopefully my luck will change.


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## Arize (Dec 6, 2016)

I finally won! ... A Salt permit... with less than 30% of average precip. Damn. Hope I didn't waste all my luck!


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## rubtheduck (Jun 20, 2016)

I think I have a better shot at winning the actual lottery...


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## T.O.Mac (Jun 6, 2015)

rubtheduck said:


> I think I have a better shot at winning the actual lottery...


me too, and if I spent as much money on lotto tickets as I do boating gear and chasing elusive permits, I might even win it!


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## Jdsampsonite (Dec 7, 2015)

That stinks you won the Salt this year. It has not crested 200cfs yet and the snow is all but gone. Hopefully this storm this week turns into something good. I was actually ok that we did not win that one this year. I will go as low as 350 and I don't think we are even going to get that this year. I am going to take the IK out on the Verde next week to make up for no salt trip this year.


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## fajawiebe (Sep 9, 2016)

No luck with the 4 Rivers but we did get a Rogue permit!


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## joefromsf (Jul 16, 2010)

So far, no one in my group of 8, has reported any success in the Four Rivers lottery; but we did score 4 Rogue permits and one San Juan.


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## Neffs Whitewater Customs (Feb 8, 2018)

Nope. Denied again


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## FatmanZ (Sep 15, 2004)

Entire group was skunked again this year on the Four Rivers Lottery. The 66% price increase for applications this year evidently did not increase our chances of drawing a permit.


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## Sherpa9543 (Jul 22, 2014)

I hope the increase in permit prices doesn't go to fund our presidents Diet Coke and happy meal addiction. 


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## jamesthomas (Sep 12, 2010)

I'm in total denial. Matman, let me know what you are up to.


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## NativeDiver (Jun 7, 2017)

*Decided to invite a new-by*

Well, our group is about 0-50 maybe 0-75

OUR solution- invite someone who hasn't rafted and has never put in for a permit. 

RESULT: Easy WIN, drew first choice. We will be rafting-


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## MTBox (Feb 15, 2016)

Deso results are in if you login to rec.gov and check.


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## Avatard (Apr 29, 2011)

Good lord I swear its rigged. 12 years. Never a draw for me or my closest friends.


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## Stiff N' Wett (Feb 18, 2010)

Striking out except for MFS!!! Woop woop


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## wack (Jul 7, 2015)

No Love here in Loveland....still have fingers crossed for a Yampa.


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## T.O.Mac (Jun 6, 2015)

Just got the Desolation, Thanks For Playing, but no dice email....


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## Di (Apr 26, 2006)

22 years of applying for Middle Fork, Main and Selway and no permits. With 4 chances at each, the odds should have been in my favor one time in all these years, if I'm to believe the statistics classes I took in college. Our group used to be able to at least get a Deso every year, but even that is becoming almost impossible.


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## UriahJones (Aug 10, 2015)

I feel your pain. I have not been striking out for as long, but have also failed to draw a single permit for any river (only 3 years for me though).

Based on the statistical data output for the lotteries and my back on the mind remembrance of college statistics, I think that over 30 years of applications for coveted dates we stand about a 67% of EVER winning one. 

Those who win multiple permits and particularly permits year after year are the statistical anomaly. Whatever the actual percentage chance is, it is fairly evident that it is quite possible to go one's entire life and never win a coveted date on the MFS, Selway, 'fill in your popular trip here'. 

Yet, cancellations and friends continue to come through, and I am so thankful that opportunities still exist to get out on these rivers. 

In fact, I had a friend just invite me on a late season MFS, so it looks like I will see that river for the first time! Whoo-Hoo!!!


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## UriahJones (Aug 10, 2015)

Stiff N' Wett said:


> Striking out except for MFS!!! Woop woop


Now that is the way to go down swinging! Way to go!


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## rubtheduck (Jun 20, 2016)

NativeDiver said:


> Well, our group is about 0-50 maybe 0-75
> 
> OUR solution- invite someone who hasn't rafted and has never put in for a permit.
> 
> RESULT: Easy WIN, drew first choice. We will be rafting-


PREACH!


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## 2tomcat2 (May 27, 2012)

Let the cancellations begin. Pain in the patoot, but frequent checking of the Deso site
in particular, especially 7-10 days before folks need to confirm launches, will yield cancellations. Be persistent. Best of luck to all!


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## Will Amette (Jan 28, 2017)

Di said:


> 22 years of applying for Middle Fork, Main and Selway and no permits. With 4 chances at each, the odds should have been in my favor one time in all these years, if I'm to believe the statistics classes I took in college.


You only get one chance each year, but you get to choose four dates. Your name is in the "hat" just once. You just get a bonus in case the first (or second or third) date you want isn't available. I often put a fourth choice of a less desirable date, just in case. Even that doesn't seem to help too much. 

I've had several Rogue permits and only two Main Salmon permits. Never a Middle Fork or Selway. Odds for the highly desirable dates I apply for are about 150:1 against even though the overall odds are "only" about 30:1 against.

The last Middle Fork trip I was on a couple years ago was won by a couple who EACH had applied EVERY YEAR for 30 years, and it was the first time either of them had drawn a permit.

The solution is obvious. Quit playing the lottery. Yeah. If we can just convince 99% of people to do that, our chances go up significantly  Somebody has to be the first name drawn. Even the first ten or 20 probably have nearly a 99% chance of getting at least one date they selected. Those odds are WAY better than the voluntary tax people pay in hopes of a big payoff (Powerball).

Congratulations to this year's winners. At least I got a nice Rogue launch mid-summer. It doesn't seem that Recreation.gov publishes lottery statistics like Four Rivers and Rogue used to do, so I have no idea how lucky I really am.


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## swiftwater15 (Feb 23, 2009)

I think we, err I mean you ALL should boycott the stinking lottery in the future.

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## swiftwater15 (Feb 23, 2009)

Got a July 2 main salmon. Buddy got June 2 middle fork. Wish I was retired.

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## shappattack (Jul 17, 2008)

I did a statistical analysis of a particularly highly coveted river permit looking at chance by date as well as the co-variate of what day of the week any particular date actually falls on for the last 10 years. I haven't applied for any permits for the last few years, but decided to finally do the analysis above and see if I could find a trend to inform my pick. I only applied for that river permit this year and I won my first choice.

Probably just lucky though.


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## UriahJones (Aug 10, 2015)

shappattack said:


> I did a statistical analysis of a particularly highly coveted river permit looking at chance by date as well as the co-variate of what day of the week any particular date actually falls on for the last 10 years. I haven't applied for any permits for the last few years, but decided to finally do the analysis above and see if I could find a trend to inform my pick. I only applied for that river permit this year and I won my first choice.
> 
> Probably just lucky though.


Congrats on the draw! I must concur that I think that it is probably due to luck. By doing analysis of past years data you can no doubt increase your chances somewhat, but I think that we are talking about moving from 1-2% to 1.5-3% as more likely. In no way can I imagine a drastic change like increasing your odds from 2% to 15% or anything like that. Best case is just to apply for dates no-one wants (low-water, high-water, bad access, etc...) and just lump it!  

Have a great trip! Enjoy!


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

I've put in for 20 years. I've drawn one prime time MF 10 years ago. My GF has put in for 10 years and drawn one prime time MF on year two. I gave my prime time Selway dates to my buddy last year and he drew on his first year of applying. I'll probably never draw again but I'll keep giving them money.


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## bcpnick (Jul 16, 2015)

Yampa and Lodore permit lottery results are up at rec.gov now!


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## Jdsampsonite (Dec 7, 2015)

2 declines already on the green. Skunked again.


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## bcpnick (Jul 16, 2015)

I still haven't won a permit after a few years trying, but friends save the day once again. My small group pulled a Salt, two San Juans, and a Deso over Memorial Day. And a friend of a friend pulled a Middle Fork and Main Salmon that should have room. 2018 is looking a-okay.


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## 50119 (Jan 17, 2016)

Awarded a Yampa permit which immediately follows my Middle Fork permit, all of which later follow a 21 day April Grand trip. 2018 might land me in divorce court.


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## wshutt (Jun 20, 2013)

chiefstilh20 said:


> Awarded a Yampa permit which immediately follows my Middle Fork permit, all of which later follow a 21 day April Grand trip. 2018 might land me in divorce court.


Nice one! Did the Grand, Yampa, MF/Main/Lower in 2015, thankfully we both boat so no divorce court but had some quality time on different boats


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## slampe (Apr 18, 2017)

Six "unsuccessful" in our group for Deso... just checked my rec.gov account and another "unsuccessful" for Yampa. Hopefully the rest of my group has better luck today.


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## MountainmanPete (Jun 7, 2014)

Foiled again. Year 8 not a single lottery winner.

Looks like YouTube videos for me!


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## mrbaum (Feb 20, 2015)

Yea guys I thought Trump was gonna make river lotteries great again....


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

I personally got skunked but ended up with an interesting conundrum. We have a couple of families that typically float together. Somehow or another we got application dates crossed up and our group got both a MF and Main on the same launch date in Early August. They were supposed to be staggered just in case, miracle of miracles, we drew both and could stitch it all together. Dabgummit, we pulled both..... but can only do one. My wife landed the Main.

I know the obvious answer is to do the MF and ensure that the Main goes back in for the rest of you...except. I have the youngest kids in the group (7 and 10 and well seasoned junior river rats, and yes, it really is all about them) and I think they would probably have more fun on the main. The rest of the group will almost certainly want the MF, and so do I to be honest. If we had only pulled the MF I wouldn't think twice about it. Anybody done both with kids this age? Am I overthinking it?

If we split up or normal group and did the Main, we could bring along some people that have never had the opportunity for a multiday before, and a couple of others that simply wouldn't be comfortable on the MF.

Opinions are appreciated just as much as facts in this case


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## Roguelawyer (Apr 2, 2015)

totally skunked.


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## cataraftgirl (Jun 5, 2009)

*Nope*

Seeing the words "unsuccessful" every year for almost 15 years is very depressing. Cancellation watch is on once again. At least I've got my flat water & lake touring trips planned already......Stuillwater in the spring, Yellowstone & Grand Teton in the summer.


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## LJPurvis (Apr 12, 2017)

MontanaLaz said:


> I personally got skunked but ended up with an interesting conundrum. We have a couple of families that typically float together. Somehow or another we got application dates crossed up and our group got both a MF and Main on the same launch date in Early August. They were supposed to be staggered just in case, miracle of miracles, we drew both and could stitch it all together. Dabgummit, we pulled both..... but can only do one. My wife landed the Main.
> 
> I know the obvious answer is to do the MF and ensure that the Main goes back in for the rest of you...except. I have the youngest kids in the group (7 and 10 and well seasoned junior river rats, and yes, it really is all about them) and I think they would probably have more fun on the main. The rest of the group will almost certainly want the MF, and so do I to be honest. If we had only pulled the MF I wouldn't think twice about it. Anybody done both with kids this age? Am I overthinking it?
> 
> ...


We have taken our kids on the Middle Fork several times since they were 7. They LOVE it. The last two trips we stayed at the Flying-B and paid to let them go horse back riding. The B is their favorite destination.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

*Lets be politically Incorrect*

We are at a point where river rafting is second only to cave exploration for UN-obtainable permits. We got here through years and years of increasing environmentalism in which the community embraced open arms lock step with land managers in a religion to eliminate man in the wilderness. I realize this will shock many, but I believe all these rivers need to have a SIGNIFICANT bump in permit numbers. Yes, I love solitude and being in remote places alone, but what I enjoy even more is BEING THERE AT ALL!


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## Fumble (May 23, 2013)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> We are at a point where river rafting is second only to cave exploration for UN-obtainable permits. We got here through years and years of increasing environmentalism in which the community embraced open arms lock step with land managers in a religion to eliminate man in the wilderness. I realize this will shock many, but I believe all these rivers need to have a SIGNIFICANT bump in permit numbers. Yes, I love solitude and being in remote places alone, but what I enjoy even more is BEING THERE AT ALL!


Sounds like those tree huggers have been hugging more than trees. Just need sterilization campaign and in 20 years permits should be easier to get.


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## melted_ice (Feb 4, 2009)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> We are at a point where river rafting is second only to cave exploration for UN-obtainable permits. We got here through years and years of increasing environmentalism in which the community embraced open arms lock step with land managers in a religion to eliminate man in the wilderness. I realize this will shock many, but I believe all these rivers need to have a SIGNIFICANT bump in permit numbers. Yes, I love solitude and being in remote places alone, but what I enjoy even more is BEING THERE AT ALL!


I'd be curious what SIGNIFICANT means, and more specifically to each river?


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

It would be something that would take a ground swell activist movement to change that defies a very powerful movement. As far as what would be appropriate for each river? That is something that would have to be re-evaluated on a river by river basis. So much of it is really based upon camp site availability. Solitude can still be something weighed out as well, but we have to except we will see others on the river. I don't want to be doing over nights like a day trip in Browns Canyon raft to raft. But if you are doing 10-20 miles of river and 10 rafts launched instead of 5 assuming camping space was available, would that be bad?

But if we can simply get away from things like floating on a river is environmentally destructive we can have a rational discussion about usage and conservation. (I would add things like camp fires and eating to this list LOL)


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

It's the camping by the river part that will inevitably be shut down, or at least not be allowed to grow.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

That is a good point. Camping next to water had become pure evil in the environmental extremist world. And I for one don't but it in all but very limited circumstances.


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

This is such a tough conversation. Many of us here live in relatively small communities surrounded by vast swaths of open lands, and it is very easy to forget just how impactful seemingly small things can be and how there is always someone willing to abuse public lands for private benefit. This is commonly referred to as the tragedy of the commons. And before someone attacks me for being a radical environmentalist...I am anything but. For example I think the expansion of the designation of navigable waterways has been a travesty.

In my eyes, the real issue is federal versus local control, and how this plays out in a litigiuos society.

The vast majority of Americans live in densely populated areas with a long history of environmental abuse. In many instances, aggressive (maybe even draconian) measures are justified to protect the commons. When corporations are "persons" you have to protect the environment from all "persons." Dow Chemical and Jane Rafter are legally the same (or at least very similar). 

What works and is appropriate to protect and restore the Chesapeake Bay from industrial pollution is ludicrously overreaching in the context of assigning campsites on a remote Western River. The problem is that it is also extremely onerous to develop "liberal" recreation policies that meet the wishes of all groups while not being subject to continuous lawsuits.

There is always some rich a$$hole who feels a bit guilty about getting and staying rich on the backs of 3rd world sweatshop labor, and who will consequently fund lawsuits by the extreme environmental groups that want to turn the whole world outside of mega cities into a nature park. The mostly wonderful people who manage recreation on our public lands don't want to deal with this so regulations tend towards a middle ground that, while at least not keeping everyone happy, minimizes litigation.

My favorite example is the obscene amount of money that went to holding up snowmaking expansion in the Colorado ski industry around Y2K. The first internet bubble burst and and all of the opposition lawsuits dried up, at least for a while. The absurd fact is that the entire Colorado Ski industry uses far less water than the front range public golf courses. Stop the evil outdoor industry from doing anything in the wilderness but for the love of all that is holy, don't mess with golf 

If you want more permits, raise money and sue somebody.....arghhhh...it makes me sick just to type it.

Rant over.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

That actually makes a lot of sense. I am fond of saying that many times environmentalists cause more environmental damage through their actions today. Meaningful change would involve creating a new non-profit entity and likely litigation at some point. I once looked at it for the Caving community but they were not large enough or angry enough, and many just gave up the sport instead of fighting. Blue Ribbon Coalition is open to helping other public land users get started...


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## Cambo5150 (Mar 22, 2017)

I'm new to the permit game. Got denied for the ones I put in for. Now I'll be figuring out the cancellation game. It's a whole new world of excitement! At least there are rivers that exist where you don't need a permit, just in case.....


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

ColoradoDave said:


> It's the camping by the river part that will inevitably be shut down, or at least not be allowed to grow.


Not shut down because of over usage of any particular sites, but because 99.99 % of the lifeforms in the west are in the .01 % of the land around the rivers, streams and lakes. Existing sites violate that. More sites violate that more.

Turn of the century Western Indian/American's perspective of the white mans world ;

'Grab what you can anytime you can. "


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## almortal (Jun 22, 2014)

This was at the end of the GC lottery email I got:

"We wish you good luck with your lottery application.

Sincerely,
Grand Canyon River Permits Office"

Is this sarcastic?


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## Stiff N' Wett (Feb 18, 2010)

You seem a little but hurt about not getting a permit this year. How many years have you been applying? Have you ever been a TL on private permitted trip. I enjoy pulling up to box elder camp and it looking pristine and I'm able to set up my tent in lush green grass. Since you didn't pull a permit this year you think they should double the amount of groups launched per day. Sounds crazy!

QUOTE=DidNotWinLottery;660625]It would be something that would take a ground swell activist movement to change that defies a very powerful movement. As far as what would be appropriate for each river? That is something that would have to be re-evaluated on a river by river basis. So much of it is really based upon camp site availability. Solitude can still be something weighed out as well, but we have to except we will see others on the river. I don't want to be doing over nights like a day trip in Browns Canyon raft to raft. But if you are doing 10-20 miles of river and 10 rafts launched instead of 5 assuming camping space was available, would that be bad?

But if we can simply get away from things like floating on a river is environmentally destructive we can have a rational discussion about usage and conservation. (I would add things like camp fires and eating to this list LOL)[/QUOTE]


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

almortal said:


> This was at the end of the GC lottery email I got:
> 
> "We wish you good luck with your lottery application.
> 
> ...


Knowing modern day land managers, it probably is meant to be


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## natepelton (Feb 24, 2011)

Signs up on the Buzz to complain in every permit related thread.

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