# Yampa / Green run off 2021



## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

Flow prediction pages: FWIW
Deso





National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service


National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)



water.weather.gov





Yampa 





National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service


National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)



water.weather.gov




.


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## kwagunt2001 (Jun 9, 2008)

I prefer this graphic for a glimpse at predicted flows. Source is the same:

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

MC


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## zipkruse (Jul 20, 2016)

Interesting. I'm not sure what I'm looking at with this, then, that shows <2,000 CFS right now? 
USGS Current Conditions for USGS 09260050 YAMPA RIVER AT DEERLODGE PARK, CO


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

Together they seem to suggest that, although it is less than 2K right now, that there is a greater than 90% chance that by 5/22 it will be 4K CFS.
It also suggests that the 6/18 Yampa commercial trip I'm taking with family will not be a bust!


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## sunshinesallie (Apr 26, 2018)

Who needs graphs when you have anecdotal evidence  in Steamboat we definitely have had our first little peak for the Yampa, because of lack of low elevation snow. The second/“true” peak comes when most of the snow melts off Storm Peak. This photo is from today 5/15/21. Safe to say a couple weeks of sunny, warm days will bring “high” water downstream to Dinosaur.


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## zipkruse (Jul 20, 2016)

Sallie, lucky to live there! Thanks for the photo.


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

Thanks all for the responses! Sallie, exactly what I was wondering. My personal issue is enough water for Deso on May 26 with a dory.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

Perhaps useful:
"The Flaming Gorge Operation Plan from May 2021 through April 2022 has been signed. As of May 6, 2021, average daily releases will likely remain at 860 cfs through the end of May, or until the 2000 Flow and Temperature Recommendation spring release. This release will be timed with the Yampa River spring peak. The current goal, a dry hydrologic condition, is to achieve 8,300 cfs at Reach 2 for at least 2 days. This will be achieved by using full power plant releases, 4,600 cfs. This is estimated to occur mid-May to late May and could be extended to early June. 

As part of the adaptive management process, new this year is the smallmouth bass flow spike experiment that could occur mid-June to early July. The purpose of this flow spike is to reduce reproductive success of the smallmouth bass. This spike flow will include a one day ramp up to full power plant capacity releases, 4,600 cfs, and this will be sustained for 3 days. Down ramping will be at a maximum of 2000 cfs per day. "
From: BOR Flaming gorge


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## jamesthomas (Sep 12, 2010)

Thanks for the info johnovice.


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## Lone Star (May 16, 2021)

duct tape said:


> Thanks all for the responses! Sallie, exactly what I was wondering. My personal issue is enough water for Deso on May 26 with a dory.


There will be another Dory group just ahead of you! Dory Moon Yampa Desolation Extravaganza - Fretwater Boatworks

The graphs sure are cause for optimism for the final week of May in Deso.


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## gbob (Jun 1, 2020)

The graphs sure don't look optimistic to me, or the current data, but the historic data gives me hope. 
I am not a professional hydrologist by any stretch, but have been tracking runoffs for western rivers I frequent in Utah and Idaho primarily, since 1991. 
I agree with Sunshine, good runoff data is gained by just looking out the window. 

However, if you are into data (historic): 
The Green River basin 2021 had the 8th lowest SWE since 1979. (the extent of the records I have access to, Snow to Flow). Even the lowest SWE year, 1992, had a peak runoff about 11k cfs, 5/14/92. Only one year had a peak lower than 10k , 2002 which was 5th lowest SWE, but lowest peak at 7.7k cfs, on 5/25. Right now GR runoff is tracking slightly above 2002 runoff levels. On the day of 5/13/21 the Green set a new all time low runoff record for that day. (in another post I stated that was the lowest since the 1800's which was incorrect, it was since 1961 during dam construction). However, due to aridification, all time record antecedent low soil moisture levels and high temperatures, combined with current relative low temperatures, etc. a peak runoff level below 11k is looking more likely. It is alarming the Green level is still below 4k and the White is below 300 cfs. Last year we did the White during the first days of May, 700-1000 cfs.
I never want to run the Green after the peak (for early trips, due to previous bug torture), so we are going the last week in May, and hope we might get some of the Flaming Gorge two day max release. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that this year the runoff is lower than the 2002 peak of 7.7k cfs. (Max dam releases even for just two days distort low SWE peak runoff levels, but it is what it is, runoffs are already distorted by normal dam releases.) If the relative low temperatures continue, the runoff continues to linger, soak into the ground surface, etc. this year could rank among record setting low peak runoff years, since dam construction at least.


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## Lone Star (May 16, 2021)

^^^ ITT we're talking about getting a Dory down Deso in one piece at the end of May. I'm no Dory boatman but >4K seems like plenty of water for someone who is competent with their craft.

edit: and if not I'll share pictures in a few weeks so I can publicly eat crow


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

The Flaming Gorge big release has just begun: 4770 cfs -- I hope somebody is riding it!
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ut/nwis/uv?site_no=09234500
(BOR has updated their report that I linked above.)


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## zbaird (Oct 11, 2003)

If they are trying to time it with the Yampa peak, Im pretty sure they pooched it.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

Pretty close, may meet at confluence (and they will ramp down over a week or so),
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK (YDLC2)


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## zbaird (Oct 11, 2003)

I suppose they should know better than I do. Guess I was hoping for a bit better with the high elevation stuff a bit later.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

zbaird said:


> I suppose they should know better than I do. Guess I was hoping for a bit better with the high elevation stuff a bit later.


Yeah, I have been hoping, too -- but also watching closely.
I'm hoping to get some of the late June flush -- but not counting on it.

It looks like Jensen might be showing the bump -- I wondered how fast the flush would travel.
CFS Green at Jensen


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## kayakfreakus (Mar 3, 2006)

johnovice said:


> Yeah, I have been hoping, too -- but also watching closely.
> I'm hoping to get some of the late June flush -- but not counting on it.


Looks like the elk and yampa peaked, driving rabbit ears Friday was depressing. Driving through snow on Cameron yesterday with the poudre at almost 5 feet it is a weird year. Hope I’m wrong…


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## atg200 (Apr 24, 2007)

I just finished rowing a dory through Deso - took out last Friday. 2500 cfs is plenty if you are on your toes. Watch out for the rock at the entrance to Surprise - that was the only thing I really hit on the trip.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

duct tape said:


> ...My personal issue is enough water for Deso on May 26 with a dory.


Lookin' good for you!! Coming up at Jensen and Green River.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

Update: Green River at Jensen has been coming down about 1,000 CFS per day since May 25 due to Flaming Gorge ramp down from flush and Yampa coming down. The graph of the ramp down is interesting (like three steps down, two steps up each day).
Jensen 
Flamimg Gorge


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

Took off yesterday. We lucked out and pretty much rode the wave down from the dam, peaking just below 10k, and around 7600 at Swaseys. Plenty of water for a dory, in fact just about perfect, but going to get skinny much sooner than most recent years.


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## bobbqraft (May 26, 2010)

kwagunt2001 said:


> I prefer this graphic for a glimpse at predicted flows. Source is the same:
> 
> National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
> 
> ...


We have a launch on 8/3. I have never run the Yampa and am wondering about the feasibility of doing it in a 14' Maravia Spider. Thanks


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## cain (Dec 28, 2011)

The Yampa in a raft on 8/3?


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## bobbqraft (May 26, 2010)

cain said:


> The Yampa in a raft on 8/3?


Yep, that's what I am wondering about. I have 14' Spider which is a little more narrow than the Willow Was 1. We also have a couple of 10' RMR set up with frames.


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## ACheateaux (Dec 3, 2008)

Shit man, I’m hoping there’s enough for us to get down it in 2 weeks!


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## bobbqraft (May 26, 2010)

ACheateaux said:


> Shit man, I’m hoping there’s enough for us to get down it in 2 weeks!


I hear ya, I am trying to decide if it's even worth the drive from Phoenix. Friends are going in some duckies and a couple of 10 ' RMR boats with frames, but I am leaning towards staying home .


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## cain (Dec 28, 2011)

As ACheateaux said above. Water is already peaked and peaked way low. He will probably be right at the tipping point for rafts. Yours are smaller but 8/3 I would wager below 300cfs until you hit the green. Sorry but it was a bad snow year and dry conditions have been sucking all the run off into the ground. All our rivers are running really low and running out fast. Happy Floating where you can.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

FWIW, this quote is pasted from linked thread.
"I've taken a lightly loaded 16' raft down the Yampa at 570 cfs and had no problems, however my technical boating skills are better than most, I'm sure many people would struggle at those flows."
from dbarrett
That's the lowest flow I have heard of for a raft, but my research is not exhaustive.


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## johnovice (Jul 17, 2009)

Flaming Gorge Dam has scheduled their full release of 4,600 CFS to begin at 4pm MDT on June 21, lasting 72 hours -- ramping back over a few days to 860 on June 26. 
Latest from BOR
(We'll be ending our trip on June 22 -- just maybe we'll catch the bump in Split Mountain?)


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## ACheateaux (Dec 3, 2008)

This is killing me. Watching the flow drop for a Yampa trip on the 17th. Aarrggghhhh


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## jamesthomas (Sep 12, 2010)

You should be ok. Looks to me like it will still be over 1000 in four days. Gonna be a bit bony though so go as light as you can. Have a great trip.


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