# Western US snowpack 12-18



## Andy H.

We need less La Nina, More El Nino!


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## Whitewater Worthy Equip

We are looking at a decent storm in the northwest tue/wed so keep up with the snow dance!


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## Electric-Mayhem

Definitely not looking good...but its still early and things can change quickly. At least here in Colorado there are plenty of years where it doesn't start snowing in earnest till late January.

That's what I keep telling myself anyways.


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## mania

Yeah I hate to be debbie downer (also don't kill the messenger) but we are at such a deficit over most of the West one or two storms wont fix it. I wouldn't be paying for a salt permit that's for sure.


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## Electric-Mayhem

Its only two weeks into December... winter has barely started. Its definitely below average, but looking at the SNOTEL for Colorado there have been plenty of years where it started slow and got huge...

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/basinsweplots/co/basinplotstate18.gif?









Not looking good...but we have most of the winter still ahead of us. If its still looking like this a month from now then I'll probably get pretty depressed. At least there is some amount of leftover water in the reservoirs from last year.

p.s. Looking at some of the specific river basins on SNOTEL is definitely pretty depressing...namely the Animas/Dolores/San Juan basin.


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## mania

Lucky you. Here is our graph.


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## Electric-Mayhem

haha...I was editing it to show the statewide graph and also edited it to mentioned that the Animas/San Juan/Dolores looks pretty depressing indeed.

Looks like all that hard work over making maps and doing community outreach for the Dolores might have to take a break for a year. THAT is definitely a bummer.


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## Electric-Mayhem

On the plus side....there is a chance that it could be like 2000 where it started out super slow and did allright in the end. Still below average but still not horrible...










I just hope it doesn't go like 2002 where it started low and stayed super low.


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## Andy H.

Electric-Mayhem said:


> I just hope it doesn't go like 2002 where it started low and stayed super low.


That was the year when we learned we could run the Upper C at 400, Shoshone at 900, and I believe the Ark peaked around 400 or 500 (shudder!). Let's hope we're not in for a year like that! 

Unfortunately the climate models say they'll be more and more frequent...

-AH


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## Electric-Mayhem

Andy H. said:


> That was the year when we learned we could run the Upper C at 400, Shoshone at 900, and I believe the Ark peaked around 400 or 500 (shudder!). Let's hope we're not in for a year like that!
> 
> Unfortunately the climate models say they'll be more and more frequent...
> 
> -AH


Yeah...I worked for Alpenglow Sports that summer and clear creek was a shit show too. You could kind of scrape down it, but it was no fun.

I remember the Ark hurting really bad over it too. They still squeezed rafts down though. 

There was actually a better early season snow pack in 2002 compared to this year, but it flattened out fast. I'm hoping this year is more like the ones where it started slow and then made up for it with good snow in January, February and March.


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## shoptech1

pretty grim down here in arizona bro's! in flag for meteorological fall (sept-nov) we've had .43 inches of rain. Typically by this point in December we would have had 18.5 inches of snow. At this time a big goose egg. To say it's dry is an understatement, i'm getting scared.


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## Electric-Mayhem

shoptech1 said:


> pretty grim down here in arizona bro's! in flag for meteorological fall (sept-nov) we've had .43 inches of rain. Typically by this point in December we would have had 18.5 inches of snow. At this time a big goose egg. To say it's dry is an understatement, i'm getting scared.


Welp...on the plus side....if weather stays like this I'll probably finally get to see a blue Little Colorado for my May trip... assuming its running.


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## restrac2000

Worst year in my memory of living in SW Utah the last 11 years. Not one measurable snow storm in town yet. Didn't even get cold until 10 days ago (though now its frigid). Mountains are grim. Those sub-10% numbers seem optimistic in some areas. I am not sure there will be much man made snow left at local resort after the Christmas crowd scrapes it all off. 

March and April are traditionally big months for us but its already ugly and Jan is often dry and warm around here.


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## lmyers

15 years skiing and boating in Colorado and this is the most grim early season I have experienced. The closest I can remember was 2008 I think. The ground was bare above tree line until December 15th, but then we got a Pineapple Express that dumped 5 feet in a week....

I had a feeling this was going to happen based on the wet Autumn we had. It seems like patterns go in (approximate) 3 month cycles and with it staying wet until September I figured there was a good chance early winter would be dry. My hope is that the pattern changes again sometime in January and that it snows until May.

Would rather not see a repeat of 2012. 500 cfs peak in Browns with flows around 300 cfs in mid summer..... As of right now there is only 2" of water at the Brumley Snotel site on Independence Pass.


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## 2tomcat2

March and April can often bring massive, wet snow storms to Colorado...hang in there
and ask Santa for more snow! Forecast from Farmer's Almanac:

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2018-winter-forecast/


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## formerflatlander

Peak was early in 2012 too. May 26 in the canon city area as I recall. If it continues May want to keep that in mind too.


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## restrac2000

I prefer NOAA. Much of the intermountain west in CO and UT is right in the middle of "equal chances" of normal precipitation on their maps and above normal for temperatures (Dec-Feb). We start to see climate models push for below average precipitation around March onward. The southern basins in both states could suffer the worst.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4


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## daairguy

The west definitely needs a healthier snowpack! If this trend continues we may have a dangerous fire season ahead.


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## denali1322

lmyers said:


> 15 years skiing and boating in Colorado and this is the most grim early season I have experienced. The closest I can remember was 2008 I think. The ground was bare above tree line until December 15th, but then we got a Pineapple Express that dumped 5 feet in a week....
> 
> I had a feeling this was going to happen based on the wet Autumn we had. It seems like patterns go in (approximate) 3 month cycles and with it staying wet until September I figured there was a good chance early winter would be dry. My hope is that the pattern changes again sometime in January and that it snows until May.
> 
> Would rather not see a repeat of 2012. 500 cfs peak in Browns with flows around 300 cfs in mid summer..... As of right now there is only 2" of water at the Brumley Snotel site on Independence Pass.


I remember this year vividly. Starting boating in 2010 and that 2012 year was crap. I missed the peak and remember banging a raft down Browns at 350 - ugh!


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## MountainVisions

I don't know about out west, but out east winter has been starting later and lingering longer the last few years. Last year we had more winter in mid March through April than in January and a February. In fact, I put my ice climbing gear away and prepared to boat the last weekend of February when it was in the 70s...6 weeks later, mid April, people were climbing ice and wading through waist deep snow. Has that been the case out west? 

Sent from my SM-N910V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## lmyers

MountainVisions said:


> I don't know about out west, but out east winter has been starting later and lingering longer the last few years. Last year we had more winter in mid March through April than in January and a February. In fact, I put my ice climbing gear away and prepared to boat the last weekend of February when it was in the 70s...6 weeks later, mid April, people were climbing ice and wading through waist deep snow. Has that been the case out west?
> 
> Sent from my SM-N910V using Mountain Buzz mobile app


I would say the trend seems to be doing something similar around here too. The pattern is becoming more and more dry early season and spring is what makes or breaks the snowpack. I feel like the ski industry would benefit from waiting until Christmas to open and staying in operation 2-4 weeks later...


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## smhoeher

I'm a half full find of guy. Here're are some positives for western rivers: The Shoshone power plant has the oldest water rights in Colorado. If needed, they will make a "call" and draw water from upriver reservoirs. Glenwood Canyon will be fine with smaller boats. Westwater and Cataract always have enough water. I've run WW at 1600 and had a great time - even took a dip in the Room. Flaming Gorge releases at least 800 down the Green. I've run Ladore at about 1000. It will be boney but it's OK. Go light. Take more liquor and less beer. 

Let's not panic yet but if we can't go boating lets go hiking and climbing!


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## BigSky

We'd share if we could, I swear...


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## Whitewater Worthy Equip

Looks like my flight to Bozman on the 5th could be well worth the travel time. Keep it coming!!


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## mania

Meanwhile here is our 10 day forecast. 56 and sunny wtf? gonna bust out the mountain bike AGAIN.


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## Grifgav

Still some work to do, but Idaho is looking up!


https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/id_swepctnormal_update.pdf


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## lmyers

mania said:


> Meanwhile here is our 10 day forecast. 56 and sunny wtf? gonna bust out the mountain bike AGAIN.


Yep. Going mountain biking today myself. Supposed to be in the low 50's in BV too. Didn't even freeze last night.... normally this is the coldest time of year for us.


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## Chief Niwot

*South Platte River Basin*

South Platte river basin is looking much better after this past week.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/basinsweplots/co/swehilosp18.gif


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## Jdsampsonite

https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/report...EQ::value,WTEQ::delta,SNWD::value,SNWD::delta

Upper Salt is looking really sad.


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## mania

Here is the Dec 31 update for those interested. You can get these daily search on "western us snow water equivalent" and the first PDF in google is the update. there is also a cool realtime map of all this here you can fool with the layers and pan and zoom:


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## F.A.A.C. Slim

This is a tad unsettling, yes we need snow 











http://https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/forecast_maps/colorado_river/wy2018/costrm1801.gif


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## Jamesdking

They won't even wager a guess for Montana yet...


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## F.A.A.C. Slim




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## restrac2000

We finally got some measurable precipitation but its a scary proposition to be happy to bump up to 30% snowpack. I keep seeing references to worst year since 1970s. Went snowshoeing today with some out of state friends and we were lucky to find 18" of snow and could have been in shorts and t-shirts at 9600 feet. It was downright hot.


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## mania

that map is a couple weeks old here is one from today. bonus graph of Animas area.


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## dirtbagkayaker

In Idaho the snow is soft and sloppy. Spent the weekend up in McCall high country and I'm thinking pre-season MFS is on tap this year.


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## 2tomcat2

Winter Storm Warning for parts of Colorado, Utah...let it snow!


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## mania

Here is the Feb 1 update. Grim


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## jaffy

I just stumbled across this:

https://vimeo.com/254342523

The two things that struck me:

1. Some sites are at 0%, which means no other year in history has had less snowpack by this date.
2. She considers the end of January to be late season. I have always thought of Januray as early season, and that a deficit in January could be made up by a few big storms. It sounds like that's unlikely.


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## restrac2000

We're back to hovering around 30% in my region with endless warmth and blue skies forecast. Its scary here.


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## mattman

jaffy said:


> I just stumbled across this:
> 
> https://vimeo.com/254342523
> 
> The two things that struck me:
> 
> 1. Some sites are at 0%, which means no other year in history has had less snowpack by this date.
> 2. She considers the end of January to be late season. I have always thought of Januray as early season, and that a deficit in January could be made up by a few big storms. It sounds like that's unlikely.


Ya. Not sure she entirely knows what she is talking about.
Snowpack is definitely in a very bad place right now, but I would not call January late winter. The one good thing I can think of, is that trends in recent years have been towards more of our snow falling late. 
Every year is a different year though.
Lets hope it snows!!!


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## mattman

Maybe should get a bunch of trashed skis, some wild turkey, and have a late season Thanksgiving style bonfire to the snow gods......


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## restrac2000

mattman said:


> jaffy said:
> 
> 
> 
> I just stumbled across this:
> 
> https://vimeo.com/254342523
> 
> The two things that struck me:
> 
> 1. Some sites are at 0%, which means no other year in history has had less snowpack by this date.
> 2. She considers the end of January to be late season. I have always thought of Januray as early season, and that a deficit in January could be made up by a few big storms. It sounds like that's unlikely.
> 
> 
> 
> Ya. Not sure she entirely knows what she is talking about.
> Snowpack is definitely in a very bad place right now, but I would not call January late winter. The one good thing I can think of, is that trends in recent years have been towards more of our snow falling late.
> Every year is a different year though.
> Lets hope it snows!!!
Click to expand...

I think as a climatologist she has a good idea what she is talking about in this video. She actually said "now that we are in the later part of Winter season in terms of snowpack accumulations", which is correct given it was posted 8 hours ago, ie past the halfway mark of winter. We only have 40ish days of the winter snow season remaining.

Most of our regions will undoubtedly make up some snow but remember the climate changes we have seen are included in the averages. The averages are based on shifting data so our current percentages are still extremely low compared to dry reference years. We'll gain some heavy snow in the spring but the global climate patterns affecting us now are actually predicted to cause an even drier and warmer spring, though climate models only provide probabilities. Our outlook is grim. NOAA forecast below, as bad or worse than Feb-Mar probabilities:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3


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## mattman

Didn't say it wasn't grim. Still wouldn't call it the later part of winter though, mid winter, yes, except for you folks further down in the southwest, your winter definitely ends earlier then in the northern rockies. It does look bad.


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## restrac2000

mattman said:


> Didn't say it wasn't grim. Still wouldn't call it the later part of winter though, mid winter, yes, except for you folks further down in the southwest, your winter definitely ends earlier then in the northern rockies. It does look bad.


Winter ends March 20th. That is what she is referencing. By math we are in the later half of winter: Day 47 of an 89 day season. Her language is a common way of talking about seasons especially considering she was talking about how much snow we would need in the next 6 weeks to catch up, ie forward looking.

For perspective, her PhD was on the hydroclimate of the Colorado River Basin; she is the Assistant State Climatologist for Colorado.


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## Electric-Mayhem

I read it as meaning "too late" and not that January is late winter. The main point of the video is that if we don't have significant snowpack by the end of January, it is very hard to make that up and it is indicative of a very dry water year. I'm not really a scientist myself but I have read enough and talked to them enough to know that how specialists talk about stuff isn't always how the average citizen would say it. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt that she is saying it correctly.

I think we all agree that the prognosis for the southwest snowpack and water content is pretty grim this year. As she said in the video there is a possibility of that changing, but it will have to be a truly epic rest of the winter and early spring and the forecast sure isn't pointing to that.


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## LongmontRafter

*snow's coming...*

Snow is coming...
Share this, save this, because it IS coming – SnowForecast


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## 2tomcat2

Thanks, LongmontRafter! Exactly what we need and need to see those graphics.

Keep it coming...


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## lmyers

LongmontRafter said:


> Snow is coming...
> Share this, save this, because it IS coming – SnowForecast


I had a feeling this was going to be our big shot of moisture for the season with the way the pattern is playing out... just hope it lasts for at least the 2 weeks forecast, because it might just turn to spring afterwards.


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## [email protected]

Last 7 days the Colorado mountains has been getting lots of snow and catching up some. March and April are our snowiest months. Start worrying if March does not get several storms not now.


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## lmyers

[email protected] said:


> Last 7 days the Colorado mountains has been getting lots of snow and catching up some. March and April are our snowiest months. Start worrying if March does not get several storms not now.


On average the San Juan basin snowpack peaks on April 6th. Currently they need 222% of average moisture between now and that date to get back to a median snowpack...... that is extremely unlikely to happen. South Platte is looking good, and Fremont/Independence Passes at the head of the Ark aren't looking too bad either, but the southern part of our state is in dire shape.... plain and simple.


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## Roguelawyer

Things still suck in Oregon as far as our snow pack goes. The Rogue is going to be pretty boney if things don't change.

I don't even know what to do with myself. I guess I will do yard work.


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## restrac2000

[email protected] said:


> Last 7 days the Colorado mountains has been getting lots of snow and catching up some. March and April are our snowiest months. Start worrying if March does not get several storms not now.


Not "worried" per say, as its nothing we can control. Just observing fact. Late winter and early snow totals are worked into the snow averages already. So, as Lmyers highlighted, we would have to receive well-above average storm totals in many areas to catch up. Statistically this isn't likely, especially given the seasonal climate forecasts by NOAA. But statistics aren't really predictions and who knows what the future holds.

One thing to also consider is the role of snow accumulation up to now and how the timing of snowpack affects hydrology. I'm not an expert but I believe I have read that our shifting climate patterns could have noticeable impact on the timing and characteristics of our seasonal river flows. Its not painting a pretty picture for our southwest rivers and creeks.


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## mania

Here is the latest. Looking a wee bit better.


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## Roguelawyer

. . . and it has been snowing fairly hard at higher elevations in my area.


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## restrac2000

Remains dire here. Creeks are already turning brown with runoff and temps are climbing at elevation, even above the abnormally warm.ones this winter.

PS....Did anyone see this at the top of their state snowpack map, is see yellow text box in image below? Looks like budget cuts are going to affect products we commonly use. I don't know anyone who works in NRCS or USGS but my BLM and USFS friends are experiencing debilitating budgets. Not enough money even for all career year round employees nonetheless any seasonal ones not associated with fuels or timber. Gonna be a bumpy 3-7 more years.


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## slickhorn

in lieu of stronger language, ARGLE BARGLE!!!


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## GilaRobusta

"I don't know anyone who works in NRCS or USGS but my BLM and USFS friends are experiencing debilitating budgets. Not enough money even for all career year round employees nonetheless any seasonal ones not associated with fuels or timber. Gonna be a bumpy 3-7 more years."

Gila's have been know to associate with folks in natural resource these arenas. Thank God Zinke just got a $140k door system...He's the first Navy Seal in history to need such precautions to guard against swarms of angry "snow flake" public land users. At least thats what I heard on the fake news. 

95% percent of feds in this area deal with Resource Extraction (Black Magic uranium/gas/oil) and Fuels Management (i.e. save Rex Tillerson's Moms house from wild fire), even the ones who should be doing other things. The 5% fed's who are not bogged down in getting oil companies off the hook for reclaiming well pads are effectively on a shut down, (as far as actually doing much that requires travel, money, projects, etc.) 

I think if Zinke can keep that up for a few years it will be easy to say " They have not done one decent thing since I took over, so we are going to drain the swamp of lazy elitist, liberal, public land supporters". 

I hate to sound jaded, but i think that is his plan. 

Gila is thinking about writing Bart Simpsons seminal work "Don't Do What Donny Don't does" 

Anyway all the Gila's in Red Ryder Country are in for even a harder year than normal. Cod Bless the Feeshes.


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## mattman

Yep, making corporate america great again.
FYI, Uranium has been added to the Department of the Interior draft list of Critical Minerals for executive order 13817. The list is supposed to be "non fuel minerals" considered vital to our "Nations security and economic prosperity" basically makes it way easier for mining company's to start mining these minerals on public lands.
If you give a shit, check it out on The Grand Canyon Trusts website, I would start a thread, but last time I did that for similar info, Mountain Buzz kicked it down to the eddy, with the same info being posted front and center by AW, in the same place I posted it, don't really care who puts it up there, but is a waste when I do. 

Anyway, sorry to see Utah's snow pack so bad, it is a crying shame.


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## mattman

Public comment ends the 19th of this month.


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## restrac2000

Anyone else seeing the warning on other state maps? The link leads to the national interactive map so it appears the base data and map is safe. I just know I use the state map as a shortcut and so do a ton of others.

Per Utah...the thing is that 70-80% snowpack in northern Utah, specifically the Uintas, is scarier given their average snowpack. That deviation is likely more snow then we got in SW Utah all year. (Public service announcement: those weren't really the Uintas in The Mountain Between Us nor am I as buff or good looking as Idris Elba according to my wife.)


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## Wadeinthewater

restrac2000 said:


> Anyone else seeing the warning on other state maps?


Yes, the Oregon and Idaho maps have the same warning.


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## restrac2000

Not a good sign as I'm guessing that means its being automatically generated from the base data/source.


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## Andy H.

Our tax cuts at work. I'm sure some private company will be able to collect the data and put it out there for a fee, though. Maybe even get contracts to charge state and local resource managers for access to the data...


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## ColoradoDave

No warnings here : https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Utah

Pre-req, though, is having to know the geography of one's own state. That should disqualify around 50 - 75% from figuring out where to go.


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## Wadeinthewater

ColoradoDave said:


> No warnings here : https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Utah


The same warning is on the Utah map


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## restrac2000

It will be interesting to what all is affected by the "staffing" issue. The snotel sites and tabular data are currently looking safe. You wouldn't think the secondary maps would require that many man hours but that's just a guess.


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## jonny water

With global warming in effect....I assume runoff will happen earlier than normal. I know snow pack is down in most parts of Colorado and Utah but anyone have a suggestion on a good family run around end of March. I was wanting to do Muddy Creek or Slickrock-Bedrock, any thoughts an these?


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## lmyers

I don't think either of those will have a runoff this year. If you are considering Muddy Creek then I would also look at the Little Grand Canyon of the San Rafael. It requires less water to float.

White Rock Canyon on the Rio Grande at Santa Fe is an option, very scenic and will have enough water to float, although you might want a motor for the last 1/3 and shuttles are hard to come by....

Watch the Chama. There is very little water in it's basin, but it will runoff early and sometimes the dam operators allow enough water through the dam for a float before permit season starts.

Also, A-B-C below Flaming Gorge (although likely to be cold) and the flat water around Moab (Labyrinth, Stillwater, Meander, Daily).


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## jonny water

Great suggestions! I will especially look into the little grand canyon. That has been on my radar for a long time but have recently forgotten about it. I would like to be in Utah for my kids spring break, so this would work pretty well, thanks!


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## restrac2000

Yeah, with 47-50ish percent snowpack the Muddy will be tough. We are warming up again, especially night time temps, but we always have cold spells from mid-March until mid-May. I have no clue on Little Grand and Lmyer always seems to have reliable beta. Dolores is also unlikely but we should have initial flow details soon.

You increase your luck on Utah runs if you can go on short notice.


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## mania

Hey hey hey here is an update


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## beautah

*Soliciting comments for NRCS products*

looks like this thread is active so I thought I'd jump in and see if folks want to give me some feedback concerning some products we're developing over here at the NRCS snow survey. 

The main product I'm trying to solicit comments form the river community is this:

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/ut/iCharts/dev/SWE_Q/


Then check out this link:

Dash

its just a beta test of a web app I'm developing, probably a ways off to truly go public but we're already hosting similar things here in Utah, just not west-wide quite yet:

for individual SNOTEL sites:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1329940

basin averaged data:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1330021


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## beautah

Wadeinthewater said:


> The same warning is on the Utah map


I guess I should comment on this too while I'm here...

These maps are going away yes... we are working on replacements, I hope you all have seen our interactive map, found here:

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snow_map.html

it should have an export function shortly that can "sort of" act as a replacement for the static maps with the warning. Keep an eye on our pages, were constantly adding new products and clearing out old ones. 

OK, now that I've said that I do want to comment on the staffing issues we are having due to the current situation within the federal government. We here in Utah are currently at half the staffing levels we were at a couple years ago, I can assure you our product and data quality will suffer, not to mention overall staff morale :roll: . If you want to help, contact your local or state NRCS offices and let them know you use this data and associated products and value it as a taxpayer, simple as that. Democracy in action. The snow survey needs private citizens to advocate for it, it's such a small program it often gets brushed aside. Don't stop there, if you value any government services please fight for them, they exist for you.


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## Conundrum

Thanks beautah. I appreciate what you folks do and feel for your situation.


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## elkhaven

Yes, Thanks beautah!

I was just about to comment on the incredible data linked earlier (swe v q graphs)... I make year specific versions of those for my own use, but those have everything in one location. My comment was going to be why spend so much time on site specific data BUT get rid of the big picture maps (like the one that started this thread)....but then you addressed that....with the interactive map. I will say I do like the static map for share-ability (i.e. this thread). I'll have to explore the interactive map functions, but is there an export function that will produce snapshot images like the ones posted on this thread? That would be the best of both worlds...and I do use the interactive map a lot for both work and play, it's just nice to have a graphic I can easily share.

Great job! Is there not a better avenue than calling the local NRCS office? Seems like preaching to the Choir. What you guys do is amazing and many of us really appreciate it. I will look into what I can do to draw attention to it, but I'm just a lowly geodork...


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## beautah

yes we are currently working on a "snapshot" replacement for the static maps via the interactive map. Glad you like the products, please let me know any specifics you like or dislike as well as comments or questions. Perhaps I'll start another thread as to not hijack this one, I can always be reached at beau.uriona -the at sign- ut.usda.gov.

In regards to the best ways to show support, keep in mind the snow survey is subordinate to each state's NRCS office, therefore each state can dictate support for their states program. Letting your state conservationist, via phone (better yet snail mail/email), is not exactly preaching to the choir. Many state conservationists are from back east where no snow survey exists, they may have very little interest in putting the snow survey at the head of the line when it comes to hiring (luckily funding comes from elsewhere out of their control). I really don't want to tell folks how to show support but I can certainly say if everyone who said they "love the snow survey" made any sort of contact we'd have their attention. /rant


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## elkhaven

Thanks again. 

Great info on support. I'll do my part and try to rally others.


Have a great day!


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## deepsouthpaddler

Beautah, this is fantastic! I love it. Great work! 

The combo of snowpack and flow on the same chart is brilliant! The visualization tool is great (what is it? looks like embedded spotfire or something of that sort). 

I have built correlations of snowpack vs. runoff in excel to try and predict what the runoff hydrograph will look like based on the current snowpack. You are really close to having the final piece of forecast flow based on current snowpack, and it you could add that, your charts would answer the question every boater wants to know... what will the river flows likely be in the future based on current snowpack?

In your snowpack reports, you forecast out percentiles from current for the rest of the snow year. If you could do the same for flow... ie start with current flow and forecast percentiles through runoff that would be very valuable. 

I have seen statistical reports of total runoff volume in Acre-ft, but what boaters want is CFS forecasts. My simple approach has been to use snowpack % of average to shift the average hydrograph up or down linearly in direct proportion to snowpack to create a forecast. So... 50% snowpack = 50% flow. This is crude... and wrong... but its in the ballpark.

It would be great if you could use tools like you have to visualize Colorado basin river forecast center data. Their interface is kind of clunky, and near term flow predictions during runoff is very useful.

Thanks for doing this, I really appreciate it!


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## king kong kev

Appreciate the effort and the new ways of displaying current and historic data. The Dash link was really cool and the color graphs with the statistical breaks are great to assess the context of the current year. Very interesting (morbid) how this winter's snowpack is setting new records for the Southwest. 

A minor comment on the Dash for the average daily temperature- maybe switch the color scheme for the historical percentages with red being high temps and purple with cooler temps.


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## LSB

Western Montana is looking pretty good this year


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## elkhaven

deepsouthpaddler said:


> Beautah, this is fantastic! I love it. Great work!
> 
> The combo of snowpack and flow on the same chart is brilliant! The visualization tool is great (what is it? looks like embedded spotfire or something of that sort).
> 
> I have built correlations of snowpack vs. runoff in excel to try and predict what the runoff hydrograph will look like based on the current snowpack. You are really close to having the final piece of forecast flow based on current snowpack, and it you could add that, your charts would answer the question every boater wants to know... what will the river flows likely be in the future based on current snowpack?
> 
> In your snowpack reports, you forecast out percentiles from current for the rest of the snow year. If you could do the same for flow... ie start with current flow and forecast percentiles through runoff that would be very valuable.
> 
> I have seen statistical reports of total runoff volume in Acre-ft, but what boaters want is CFS forecasts. My simple approach has been to use snowpack % of average to shift the average hydrograph up or down linearly in direct proportion to snowpack to create a forecast. So... 50% snowpack = 50% flow. This is crude... and wrong... but its in the ballpark.
> 
> It would be great if you could use tools like you have to visualize Colorado basin river forecast center data. Their interface is kind of clunky, and near term flow predictions during runoff is very useful.
> 
> Thanks for doing this, I really appreciate it!


The problem with the CFS vs Acre-ft request is they are different things. CFS is a rate, AC-ft is a volume... It's MUCH simpler to forecast volumes - that is essentially what SWE represents, a volume. Forecasting it, also includes adding precipitation estimates during the forecast period, but it's not usually reported on an hourly or even daily basis, usually monthly or annually based on typical runoff trends. Forecasting CFS means predicting the RATE at which the water will be released and incident precipitation... That moves into what the River Forecast centers do, take stream flow data, couple that with a SWE V Q prediction model AND a weather model... WAY less accurate, especially going out more than a few days to weeks and MUCH more labor intensive.

It would be sweet, but there are just too many variables to carry it very far into the future - it's weather dependent.


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## restrac2000

Ugh, rough year here in SW Utah as predicted. We started dry and never recovered. Snow melting fast and heavy winds. Fingers crossed we get some moist storms the remainder of spring and some sustained but not too heavy monsoons patterns this summer. This is the worst year I can recall in my 15 years in Utah.


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## GeoRon

May I mention a report that I generate daily and post here at the Down River Equipment web site: https://downriverequip.com/river-flow-report/

I add its' mention to this thread because, like you, I have pondered the annual heart beat of western rivers to extent that it became somewhat excessive compulsive to better understand, hence a realtime(daily) analysis seemed appropriate.

The main report is two pages. The summary report is a clip of the most essential portion of page one of the main report.

The report downloads hundreds of web data retrievals from the USGS, NRCS, NOAA, etc. The data is subsequently tabulated, graphed and analyzed permitting instant visualization of the interrelationship of weather, snow pack and flow of western river. I've been told that it might be a bit much for the typical person but it seems with minimal explanation most people understand the gist of the report.

The report also provides instant access via hyperlinks to perhaps a thousand web sites of greatest interest to western river runners. 

The report is enhanced almost daily so if you have not seen it in a few days, please look again.


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## GeoRon

beautah said:


> looks like this thread is active so I thought I'd jump in and see if folks want to give me some feedback concerning some products we're developing over here at the NRCS snow survey.
> 
> The main product I'm trying to solicit comments form the river community is this:
> 
> https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/ut/iCharts/dev/SWE_Q/
> 
> 
> Then check out this link:
> 
> Dash
> 
> its just a beta test of a web app I'm developing, probably a ways off to truly go public but we're already hosting similar things here in Utah, just not west-wide quite yet:
> 
> for individual SNOTEL sites:
> https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1329940
> 
> basin averaged data:
> https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ut/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1330021


Excellent work beautah. Rashawn Tama at NRCS Portland pointed out your work many months ago. I was very impressed but this is the first time that I've seen your co-plotting of snow pack and runoff. Keep up the good work.

I'd like to speak with you offline concerning your work and will contact you directly.

Ron


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## mania

Todays update. Our area in Durango is looking particularly dismal.


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## lmyers

Wow, that is extremely dismal for the San Juan and Rio Grande basins..... fortunately the outlook for the Ark has, and continues to improve. Monarch and Independence Passes are only showing around 9" of snow water equivalent, but Fremont Pass has over 20" of water! The lack of low elevation snow will still hurt the overall runoff, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 2000 cfs in the Ark come early June.


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## elkhaven

Not to brag but were looking pretty damn good. On pace to keep up with 2011, though we lost a bit over the warm weekend.

Sorry for you folks down south!


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## denali1322

lmyers said:


> Wow, that is extremely dismal for the San Juan and Rio Grande basins..... fortunately the outlook for the Ark has, and continues to improve. Monarch and Independence Passes are only showing around 9" of snow water equivalent, but Fremont Pass has over 20" of water! The lack of low elevation snow will still hurt the overall runoff, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 2000 cfs in the Ark come early June.


Do some of the other passes on that table showing SWE by pass matter less? The overall % is showing 42% for the Ark. 42% sounds bad to me, but I know you understand this better than I do.

I just recall 2012 when %'s were around this level (or slightly worse) and the Ark peaked at 600 and I ran it with some family in town at 350 in late June. Terrible year.


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## lmyers

denali1322 said:


> Do some of the other passes on that table showing SWE by pass matter less? The overall % is showing 42% for the Ark. 42% sounds bad to me, but I know you understand this better than I do.
> 
> I just recall 2012 when %'s were around this level (or slightly worse) and the Ark peaked at 600 and I ran it with some family in town at 350 in late June. Terrible year.


Well, it depends on where you boat. You can completely remove the snotel sites at the head of Grape Creek as well as at the head of the Huerfano and Purgatoire basins from the equation because they come in below the Royal Gorge. The snow from Monarch Pass only matters if your running the Bighorn Sheep Canyon or the Gorge. 

For Pine Creek/Numbers, Fractions and Browns Canyon the only snotel stations that matter are Fremont Pass and Brumley (Independence Pass).

I went backcountry skiing on Mt. Arkansas at the head of the river basin on Fremont Pass yesterday. South facing slopes are melted out all the way to 12,000' already, but north facing slopes from 10,500' on up have 6-8'+ of snow to come down still. In fact Fremont Pass still has over 20" of water to send down the river (which is over 100% of average). On May 7th, 2012 the same sensor showed 11" of water.

The river is currently running over 700 cfs and the weather forecast is very warm (didn't even freeze last night in Leadville), so we are likely looking at an early peak, but based on the snow water equivalent at Fremont Pass I feel like we could likely see a peak of something near 1500-2000 cfs north of Buena Vista.


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## GeoRon

Excellent field observations by Imyers.

Let's consider what that looks like in the numbers when graphed, yes,,,, lets look at the Snow-to-Flow graph from the NRCS(column 32 for the Ark).

We can actually find three nearly identical years of snow pack/flow status. Activate years 2004, 2006 and 2007.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/ut/iCharts/dev/SWE_Q/CO/Arkansas R at Salida.html

The Arkansas is a heavily managed river by the higher powers, front range water requirements. These three years amalgamated are a crystal ball of what to expect for this year. Of course, there are yet higher powers than the water boards but all of these years demonstrate a milking out of the snow pack from this day forward without any late season highest power meteorological surprises(spring dumps in the high country which are not like according to NOAA Outlooks for Colorado(row 1 columns 33-35)).

All of these years are likely similar to what Imyers observed a few days ago in the high country.


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## lmyers

Flows are actually currently more than double what that graph indicates it was flowing in the next closest year for this date (2004 when it was flowing 580 cfs). It hasn't froze at 10,000k ft since last Sunday and the Ark below Granite is currently flowing 1250 cfs, which is the highest flow on record for that site for May 11th..... 

Yes, the Ark is a heavily managed river, and you need to have an in depth understanding of the Fry-Ark program to have a discussion of what the release patterns are going to be, and what kind of season the river will have, but the fact is that runoff is happening right now, and it is early. Luckily Fremont Pass is not melting very fast considering the current flow. It has only dropped 2" of swe over the past week, which is good news considering how unseasonably warm it is.


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## lmyers

Just for full disclosure, the Ark has ran at higher flows than this on May 11th. Especially if you look at older gauges (Nathrop, Parkdale) and go back to the 70's and 80's. The below Granite gauge which is at the highest flow on record only goes back to 1999. The Malta gauge below Leadville (totally natural melt from Tennessee and Fremont Passes) is also reading the highest flow on record, but it only goes back to '89.... I think the takeaway from this is that the snowpack was generally below average in the basin and flows are above average and early. Peak will likely be early, and unless we get rain the summer will likely have mediocre flows that have to be augmented by releases.


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## GeoRon

Yes, a thermal runoff is happening right now it appears. Column 26 shows that on Thursday morning the Numbers was flowing at 262%, Browns was 183% and Parkdale was 153%. (I running todays report now).

An early peak(thermal runoff?) most closely resembles Snow to Flow patterns for 2006 and 2007, except that this year's snow pack is bonking a few days earlier than those years.

NRCS uses 5 snotel sits to ascertain the status of the upper Ark. These five stations are itemized at the bottom of the Snow to Flow graph and you can hyperlink to each by clicking on them to detail the status of each station. It would be so kool if for example when hyperlinking that a sub-menu would pop up such that you'd be able to select the year of the currently activated rivers. For example, I currently am viewing concurrently 2018, 2006 and 2007 and I've love to able to roll back time to examine an individual snotel site stats for for this day in 2006 by sub-menu selecting that year.

If you want to identify the location of each of these snotel sites, that can be done by select the basin name(currently R28C21) and a snotel map of the basin will appear. Then, you can hover over sites to identify them. Most of the sites of the upper Ark on this map show SWE between 0% and 25% of average, just as you said Imyers.

In 2006 and 2007 the Ark had later May peaks. If only the graph had temp and precip data from the snotel sites we'd be able to determine if these are thermal, precip or reservoir releases. Since the snow pack at snotel sites would already be gone a thermal event would be the milking of above timberline snow fields. A precip event would likely be thunderstorms. A reservoir release could possibly be a recreational release to supplement the needs of the boating community or front range water demands.


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## lmyers

GeoRon said:


> In 2006 and 2007 the Ark had later May peaks. If only the graph had temp and precip data from the snotel sites we'd be able to determine if these are thermal, precip or reservoir releases. Since the snow pack at snotel sites would already be gone a thermal event would be the milking of above timberline snow fields. A precip event would likely be thunderstorms. A reservoir release could possibly be a recreational release to supplement the needs of the boating community or front range water demands.


It would be very interesting to have that information available. I was here for both of those seasons and if my memory serves me right the weather was similar to this spring (unseasonably warm). Normally we don't start to see rain events in the Upper Ark Valley until June or later and recreational releases don't start until July. The whole municipal water thing is interesting on the Ark because the majority of Colorado Springs' and Aurora's west slope water goes directly from the Twin Lakes intake conduit to the Otero Pump Station and never goes down the river. However, west slope water owned by Pueblo does travel down the channel. The BOR will often wait until the last minute to evacuate space for imports, but I can't recall a year that this coincided with peak runoff. The point of evacuating space is to have it available during peak.


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## GeoRon

*Two Week SNOTEL Plots by State in the Down River Report*

We were discussing the nature of the current runoff event on the upper Ark. The attached file adds evidence to it being a thermal runoff. 

The graph shows two days, May 2-3, of nearly 50" of precip a day in the Colorado high country at about 114 SNOTEL sites(blue lines and labels). 

Most of that contributed to the SWE which increased by 80"(green lines and labels). 

For every day since that precip event minimun overnight temps at the 114 SNOTEL sites have average above 32F(faint red line).

Natural flowing rivers have been rising during the thermal event and in some cases substantially but not enough to change the statewide steamflow index much(black lines and labels).


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## mania

Here is the big picture for Colorado as of today


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## lmyers

GeoRon said:


> We were discussing the nature of the current runoff event on the upper Ark. The attached file adds evidence to it being a thermal runoff.
> 
> The graph shows two days, May 2-3, of nearly 50" of precip a day in the Colorado high country at about 114 SNOTEL sites(blue lines and labels).
> 
> Most of that contributed to the SWE which increased by 80"(green lines and labels).
> 
> For every day since that precip event minimun overnight temps at the 114 SNOTEL sites have average above 32F(faint red line).
> 
> Natural flowing rivers have been rising during the thermal event and in some cases substantially but not enough to change the statewide steamflow index much(black lines and labels).



Not sure what your point is..... There was no "50 inch moisture event" in the Ark Basin in May and the readings at 114 sites around the state are not relevant to the Ark or the discussion we were having. I don't need a difficult to decipher graph to tell me that it's hot out and the snow is melting and it's time to go boating. It's coming down fast and now is the time to take advantage while you can.

Here is an image of the north face of 14k' Missouri Mountain, taken yesterday. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know about our snow pack, I don't know what will....


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## GeoRon

Imyers,

Sorry if I've offended you in some way but not everyone is able to spend as much time in the high country as you are lucky enough to do. 

My point was that around May 3rd rain happened in the mountains of Colorado. Statewide it was a pretty decent rainfall for two days(at the Fremont SNOTEL site over an inch of rain fell and most of it was retained as SWE). However, it was a high country heat wave that kicked this runoff into gear. That heat wave has implied relavence to the Snow-to-Flow similarities when comparing 2018 to years 2006 and 2007 and perhaps 2004.

Again, the "State" graphs on page 2 are a synopsis of the past two weeks of that giant lake called snow pack from which each western state gets its naturally flowing water. It is unfortunate, I agree, that political boundaries had to be used to simplify my processing. However, it provides a very good understanding of the generalities occurring in all western states' high country for those of us who ponder such things here in the low country. If you track on it, for some people, it is pretty interesting. I'm personally sorry if it does not interest you, or if it is only the Ark that interests you. I will make it a point not to engage with you in the future with talking about the weather.

Happy boating.


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