# Help reading MFS forecast/snow levels for Aug



## Nanko (Oct 20, 2020)

Not a ton of year to year flow variation that late. For sure significantly under 2’. For sure runnable. All the low water MFS tips you could ever need are here in the MB archives. Especially heed anything Carvedog said. And do not let anyone talk you into flying. 

Hydrography:


https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsbdev3_029251.pdf


----------



## bamudd (Jul 4, 2016)

Do we know yet which year from that chart 2021 looks like it's most closely resembling? And to help sort through the chaff, for people used to shallow technical water how bad is it _really_ at 1.5 or 1.7 feet? I would probably not go before I flew in and skipped the first 25 lol.


----------



## Nanko (Oct 20, 2020)

I’d expect this august to be among the worst of those lines. Just one idiot’s opinion but I wouldn’t put too much effort into teasing out varying degrees of lowness. Yes there is a difference but it’s different shades of “too low”. Run your tubes soft, 2 nights above Indian, and you’ll have a great time. Good shoes and have the mindset that days 1-2 are work whether you get 1.5, 1.7, or hopefully more.

Edit: You may look at Boundary and wonder what you got yourself into lol. The river grows fast from all the tribs.


----------



## TFVandal (Oct 6, 2015)

2015 is a good comparison. Banner summit melted out yesterday.


----------



## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

Having done both a low water MFS raft trip and countless runs on the Ocoee, Chattooga, Nolichucky, New, Cheat, Yough etc, the top section of the MFS down to Indian Ck is more technical for full sized rafts. The only western river which, in my personal experience, surpasses it is low water Selway. (Limited time on Cali rivers such as Tuolomne).


----------



## bamudd (Jul 4, 2016)

More technical than the upper Yough or chattooga 4?


----------



## dirtbagkayaker (Oct 29, 2008)

With a group like that, just send the kayakers first to scout the deep channels. Then the R2. Give yourself an extra day on top, What could possibly go wrong that duck tape and tear aid wont fix? Maybe a blade or two? 

Pro tip: get ya some grippy river shoes for them slippery rocks.


----------



## graycloud (Jun 4, 2016)

I live 7 miles from the Ocoee River.Dad did it in 1962 with three friend’s in inner tubes.At 1.6 we went from the top with one passenger and backpack gear light .The other stuff was flown in to Indian creek.At 1.8 we went with a moderate load and one passenger from the top last year.In a 14 foot raft.


----------



## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

TFVandal said:


> 2015 is a good comparison. Banner summit melted out yesterday.


Agreed. If you check out: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/stf/Lower Snake/Mf Salmon R at Mf Lodge.html then select 2004, 2007, & 2015. Those years seem to be pretty similar to our current year.

August 14 will be low, almost as low as my Sep 1 trip. Planning on going light, half inflated, and from the top!


----------



## JakeH (Nov 1, 2003)

It will be low. Go light. Give yourself plenty of time on the upper miles. Run your boat super soft. You will probably get stuck at some point. Enjoy!

I’ve run it as low as 1.5ish. We flew beer into IC. Looking back, I don’t think that was necessary. 

My group is mostly a group of NC boaters. I think a good similar feel would be Quarter mile on the Noli under a 1000. Boney. Technical.


----------



## bamudd (Jul 4, 2016)

dirtbagkayaker said:


> With a group like that, just send the kayakers first to scout the deep channels. Then the R2. Give yourself an extra day on top, What could possibly go wrong that duck tape and tear aid wont fix? Maybe a blade or two?
> 
> Pro tip: get ya some grippy river shoes for them slippery rocks.


Hah fair. Altho, I'm curious what kinda Tennessee boaters we are that don't already have grippy shoes. We know what rocks feel like 🤣🤣


----------



## bamudd (Jul 4, 2016)

JakeH said:


> It will be low. Go light. Give yourself plenty of time on the upper miles. Run your boat super soft. You will probably get stuck at some point. Enjoy!
> 
> I’ve run it as low as 1.5ish. We flew beer into IC. Looking back, I don’t think that was necessary.
> 
> My group is mostly a group of NC boaters. I think a good similar feel would be Quarter mile on the Noli under a 1000. Boney. Technical.


Thanks for the comparison. I'm not expecting us to have much room for beer anyway in such small boats, this will be a whiskey trip with backpacking gear


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

bamudd said:


> Thanks for the comparison. I'm not expecting us to have much room for beer anyway in such small boats, this will be a whiskey trip with backpacking gear


That's the spirit. I love how technical the upper Middle Fork is. You should have a blast.


----------



## dirtbagkayaker (Oct 29, 2008)

bamudd said:


> Hah fair. Altho, I'm curious what kinda Tennessee boaters we are that don't already have grippy shoes. We know what rocks feel like 🤣🤣


Teva sporting, argyle socks wearing, manscaping yuppies, with a permit to run the MFS.


----------



## bamudd (Jul 4, 2016)

Hah! Astral *sporting, no sock wearing, long haired dirtbag smelly raft guides, but at least you got the MFS permit right 😘*


----------



## TFVandal (Oct 6, 2015)

IDriverRunner said:


> Agreed. If you check out: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/stf/Lower Snake/Mf Salmon R at Mf Lodge.html then select 2004, 2007, & 2015. Those years seem to be pretty similar to our current year.
> 
> August 14 will be low, almost as low as my Sep 1 trip. Planning on going light, half inflated, and from the top!


2004 must have had a big May cool down or something, flows kind of suspended for a while. 2015 was a spring just like this one, no snow in May on any hills over the MF.


----------



## gdaut (Jul 30, 2019)

I did the MFS from Boundary a couple of years ago at about 1.7. I was in an 16 foot oar rig, lightly loaded (whiskey instead of beer) with one passenger, and I was a very novice rower. Looking downstream from Boundary I though I would never make it around the first bend. We got stuck a lot, but never so bad that we needed a z drag. Just lots of pushing and pulling. Tiring, but fun. 

It was a blast and I would totally do it again. Next time I would even bring some beer. If you are in smaller boats I think you will not have any issues. Start out with your boats really soft, then let out some air. Then let out some more. Also, and you probably already know this, but when (not if) you are going to hit a rock, spin the boat. For the first couple of days you will get dizzy from all the spinning.


----------



## Livenswell (Sep 19, 2016)

Nanko said:


> Not a ton of year to year flow variation that late. For sure significantly under 2’. For sure runnable. All the low water MFS tips you could ever need are here in the MB archives. Especially heed anything Carvedog said. And do not let anyone talk you into flying.
> 
> Hydrography:
> 
> ...


Curious if you might elaborate more on not getting talked into flying; our group launches July 17 and there is already such talk of flying in gear, but I am not yet entirely sure that is the trip I am up for burning my limited vacation time on; all of that additional BS and coordination, cost, double handling the heavy stuff etc. to then scrape down and spin through the upper might be something I'd rather miss. Having never heard anyone recommend avoiding flying, I was wondering why? This is my first opportunity on the MF and its with a large group; I know I'll have another chance someday, just not sure if I want to add in the flying component to the trip along with the likely sub 2.0 level with 24 people, it just sounds like a handfull not a vacation. TIA for any details you might share on your distaste for flying


----------



## unlucky (Sep 2, 2012)

I am definitely not a pro at rowing low water MFS. Some people can row it and some can't. Weight is definitely a factor and it is priceless to have someone on the trip who knows the low water lines. 

I have seen a lot of torn floors on boats and the majority have been pinches between a rock and a dry box or cooler. Our largest was 42". Don't ask but I'm sure he hit every rock in the river from boundary creek to Indian creek. The damage got substantially worse after he had trouble keeping the floor inflated. I recommend people run with soft tubes to help slide over stuff but be sure to keep a good amount of air in the floor so it can cushion the blows to the boxes/coolers instead of cutting the floor. I am sure there are some who disagree but that's how we do it.


----------



## Nanko (Oct 20, 2020)

Livenswell said:


> Curious if you might elaborate more on not getting talked into flying; our group launches July 17 and there is already such talk of flying in gear, but I am not yet entirely sure that is the trip I am up for burning my limited vacation time on; all of that additional BS and coordination, cost, double handling the heavy stuff etc. to then scrape down and spin through the upper might be something I'd rather miss. Having never heard anyone recommend avoiding flying, I was wondering why? This is my first opportunity on the MF and its with a large group; I know I'll have another chance someday, just not sure if I want to add in the flying component to the trip along with the likely sub 2.0 level with 24 people, it just sounds like a handfull not a vacation. TIA for any details you might share on your distaste for flying


Subjective opinion, lots of people would disagree. My thinking is:

a) Top is really not all that dangerous or hard IMO. It is either “busy” or “annoying” per your mood.
b) How much crap do you _really_ need to enjoy the MFS?
c) if you wrap, getting a line from shore is usually easy.
d) most sticks are quickly solved in slow, shallow current.
e) commercials will deadhead (solitude)
f) beer at Flying B
g) pretty cool up top
h) $ in your pocket.

You cited the only good reason I can think of to fly people: 5 night limit. I’d still do everything I could to reduce trip size before I missed the upper section. But yeah, you might have me there with 5 nights. That doesn’t sound relaxing.

To each their own. I am cheap, simple, and relatively inexperienced so take some salt with all this.


----------



## mania (Oct 21, 2003)

this chart should give you an idea of how low you will go.


----------



## mukunig (May 30, 2006)

If you only have 6 days/5 nights, flying is not a bad option, as that would be really rushed from the top for most groups. We used to fly guests in when it was below 2' or so (I don't remember the actual cut off) and it made for a really relaxing and fun trip for them. The flight in even added some excitement. I think there are many reasons to fly in, including not feeling confident in your ability to avoid getting stuck a bunch, or not wanting to or having the fitness to get boats unstuck over and over. That said, I love the top even at low water and I agree it is busy (or annoying) but not really hard. Nanko's points are all right on. I would be sad to miss the upper section, but flying in and going from Indian down would still make for an amazing trip, and if that is what fits your group best I'd do it in a heartbeat before I wouldn't go at all.


----------



## Livenswell (Sep 19, 2016)

Thanks fellas, very much appreciated and helpful info to help make decisions. Mukunig, above, reminds me of another potential issue and that is fitness to handle low water extremes. I'm 50 and the youngest of the group, although these folks are not your average in age strength and form and everyone on the trip are old, highly experienced and crusty boaters, I've been fortunate over the years to learn and grow with them but I worry at times, about some in the crew. The projections in the graph above suggest that we may get lucky and see 2+ and that is what we are hoping for, I have worn that graph out looking at it a lot lately. Many thanks again for the encouragement and advice - SYOTR


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Livenswell said:


> Thanks fellas, very much appreciated and helpful info to help make decisions. Mukunig, above, reminds me of another potential issue and that is fitness to handle low water extremes. I'm 50 and the youngest of the group, although these folks are not your average in age strength and form and everyone on the trip are old, highly experienced and crusty boaters, I've been fortunate over the years to learn and grow with them but I worry at times, about some in the crew. The projections in the graph above suggest that we may get lucky and see 2+ and that is what we are hoping for, I have worn that graph out looking at it a lot lately. Many thanks again for the encouragement and advice - SYOTR


You have hit a good point. And you said you have 24 people. That means five nights on the river. Not that you won't be lucky but I don't really see 2+ feet out of our snowpack then. Prior years similar snowpack show me that it will be around 1.7 to 1.8 at the highest. The part you are lucky in is that you have an invite to go on the Middle Fork. 

I have never flown in to launch at Indian Creek. But I know many who have. If you had seven or eight days sure, go off the top. A group of 24 can be a bit to wrangle down the river under the best of circumstances. Throw in low water and you have a pressure cooker situation of 'we have to do this many miles'. I would rather do six days at a relaxed pace than feel I have to constantly push down the river. That is why I tend to go smaller groups in low water and take more time. Flying in adds another day vs just showing up and it is a bit of work to get everything down the hill from the airstrip. Blowing up boats by hand pump is not my favorite thing either but if that is the option vs not being able to boat, I would fly in an extra case of beer and start pumping....


----------



## cnalder (Jul 7, 2016)

carvedog said:


> You have hit a good point. And you said you have 24 people. That means five nights on the river. Not that you won't be lucky but I don't really see 2+ feet out of our snowpack then. Prior years similar snowpack show me that it will be around 1.7 to 1.8 at the highest. The part you are lucky in is that you have an invite to go on the Middle Fork.
> 
> I have never flown in to launch at Indian Creek. But I know many who have. If you had seven or eight days sure, go off the top. A group of 24 can be a bit to wrangle down the river under the best of circumstances. Throw in low water and you have a pressure cooker situation of 'we have to do this many miles'. I would rather do six days at a relaxed pace than feel I have to constantly push down the river. That is why I tend to go smaller groups in low water and take more time. Flying in adds another day vs just showing up and it is a bit of work to get everything down the hill from the airstrip. Blowing up boats by hand pump is not my favorite thing either but if that is the option vs not being able to boat, I would fly in an extra case of beer and start pumping....


I agree and the first thought that went thru my head was with 24 people, how many boats? Then how many have low water experience. More than two per boat with gear makes for a heavier boat in low flows. 8 boats are 3 per boat, that’s a lot unless everyone has low water experience and is willing to put in long days. I like the top so won’t fly in, but also like smaller groups. At least you have a MFS trip tho.


----------



## Wadeinthewater (Mar 22, 2009)

24 people with limited MFS experience and only 5 nights? Fly from Salmon to Indian Cr. Yes it is a pack from the airstrip to the beach and you need to inflated your boats, but going from the top even with flying in some of the extra weight might be lots of no-fun if you are doing 5 nights. I think you can fly in the day before, rig your boats, and camp at the guard station beach and in effect get an extra night on the river.


----------



## Livenswell (Sep 19, 2016)

This is all so very helpful, I'm sorry if I've hijacked the OP's thread; but this all seems somewhat relevant to the overall discussion of low water. God dam I'm about had with low water, no water; I tell you what, we're in something different down here, it's no stretch for the imagination why Ancestral Puebloans hauled ass. Well, back to the MF - the other side the equation is boats, yes - there's 12 of them I think, and probably too many but it is what it is, and not really my call. And not sure about the level of low water experience, I know this crew has a bucket full of MF trips under the belt but lots of them high water trips, and probably 10K miles of river has passed underneath this bunch so there's no problem there, these are the best boatmen you'll ever find - but dammit they're getting old and I am not sure we all realize what we are looking at when the locals are calling it 1.7-1.8 for our go at it. I think its time to start re-visioning our deal and making some tough decisions, thanks again y'all


----------



## cnalder (Jul 7, 2016)

You can also meet them at Indian Creek. I’ve had split trips like that in the past.


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Livenswell said:


> ..... when the locals are calling it 1.7-1.8 for our go at it. I think its time to start re-visioning our deal and making some tough decisions, thanks again y'all


 I will say that at 1.8 I have been down without getting out of my boat once. That's not to say I didn't get a couple of bumps and gave more, but not an ass-kicking-up-to-your-armpits-pushing-the-boat over rocks butt whipping. I do know the lines really well because I have gotten stuck so many times making the wrong move...a guy remembers eventually. Also in a moderately loaded 17 foot Maravia. I honestly think the old Maravias slick the rocks like no other but still a big boat with a decent load. 

If you are considering flying in the trip. McCall and Challis are both closer to Indian Creek than Salmon by at least 20 miles I think. Time is money in the air so there may be better rates out there. 

I have been flying with Middle Fork Aviation out of Challis for 20 years. They have always treated us really well. Usually for a gear drop at Indian, but several times with my family. 
The Beaver is quite a plane too.




__





Middle Fork Aviation






www.middleforkair.com





Gem Air is in McCall and so is Sawtooth. I have not used either one. 


https://gemairflights.com/private-boater/











Sawtooth Flying | Backcountry Flights


Sawtooth Flying is a multi-generational family of Idaho backcountry pilots.




www.sawtoothflying.com


----------



## Wadeinthewater (Mar 22, 2009)

carvedog said:


> If you are considering flying in the trip. McCall and Challis are both closer to Indian Creek than Salmon by at least 20 miles I think. Time is money in the air so there may be better rates out there.


Carve would know better about flying than I do. The reason I said Salmon was shuttle cost. Cheapest vehicle shuttle to Cache Bar is from Salmon. The cost from Challis is about $100 more and I have no idea how much more from McCall, but mucho more. 



cnalder said:


> You can also meet them at Indian Creek. I’ve had split trips like that in the past.


I did this once post season as a private deadhead. We left Boundary early in the morning at 1.59 ft and made it to Indian before 4:00. We were allowed 1 person per boat with one extra rower in the group. The remainder of the group drove all of the vehicles to the Salmon airport and flew to Indian Creek with the coolers and other heavy items. The cost of the flights and the reduced cost of the vehicle shuttle from Salmon to Cache Bar were about a wash and the deadhead day did not count against our allotted days on the river. Not sure if this would be allowed during lottery season.


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Wadeinthewater said:


> Carve would know better about flying than I do. The reason I said Salmon was shuttle cost. Cheapest vehicle shuttle to Cache Bar is from Salmon. The cost from Challis is about $100 more and I have no idea how much more from McCall, but mucho more.
> 
> 
> 
> I did this once post season as a private deadhead. We left Boundary early in the morning at 1.59 ft and made it to Indian before 4:00. We were allowed 1 person per boat with one extra rower in the group. The remainder of the group drove all of the vehicles to the Salmon airport and flew to Indian Creek with the coolers and other heavy items. The cost of the flights and the reduced cost of the vehicle shuttle from Salmon to Cache Bar were about a wash and the deadhead day did not count against our allotted days on the river. Not sure if this would be allowed during lottery season.


You got me on the shuttle cost. Challis could still be cost effective but not McCall, unless you were turning the corner. I did not know about the private deadhead. Very cool.


----------



## raferguson1 (Feb 13, 2007)

I ran it at 1.7 feet in a group of four canoes, backpacking style, so lightly loaded. Three out of four boats needed repair after the trip. Yes, we were all quite experienced boaters. I would not do it again at that level, unless I flew in and skipped the upper section. A couple of rangers passed us after we put in, in 18 foot rafts, one person per raft, probably under inflated, and seemed to be doing well, but they do it all the time. They were floating very high.

A friend of mine also ran it at 1.7 feet, I believe in a cataraft, and said that she would not do it again at that level, either. I think that someone may have been injured freeing a stuck raft, but I am not sure. She is super-experienced.

As others have said, if you run it at low levels, go very lightly loaded, expect a slow trip, and realize that you may have some problems.

My two cents.

Richard




bamudd said:


> Hey y'all, I've never been on the Middle Fork, my buddy got a permit for Aug 14. Snow pack looks pretty low? But I'm not super experienced with this section, how low can we expect?
> 
> For reference, we're a bunch of southeastern boaters used to shallow water like the Ocoee, looking to do small rafts and semi self support kayaks. A few r2s in RMRs, a few rowed pumas, and kayaks. Maybe one 15' round oar boat. A couple guys on the trip have done it before but only in June or early July.


----------



## zipkruse (Jul 20, 2016)

There are many here with more expertise than I on the MFS.
I ran it once in 2019 in August at 1.6. We were rowing normal 14' SOTARs, etc. for the most part. We made the decision to put in at Boundary Creek (along with many other trips.) And we decided to fly in 500 pounds of weight, which helped a great deal in the top section, we felt. 
The river was still amazing, and I'm sorry I waited till age 54 to run it. But it was boney, and one of our boats was badly stuck maybe 150 times. It was exhausting. We all agreed we'd never run it at that flow again. 
I was scheduled to run it in again this August, but fortunately instead have a place on a June trip.
But I put together this comparison of 2019 (my only trip), 2015, and 2007. This was five days ago, and the SWE band is in steeper decline today. Wholly speculating, but it looks very bad for August; maybe sub-500 CFS / 1.4 on the gauge:


----------



## Wadeinthewater (Mar 22, 2009)

zipkruse said:


> I was scheduled to run it again this August, but fortunately instead have a place on a June trip.


Why not both?


----------



## zipkruse (Jul 20, 2016)

Wadeinthewater said:


> Why not both?


I like your spirit. But so many rivers, so few days. And work.


----------



## idahosharky (Jul 1, 2017)

bamudd said:


> Hey y'all, I've never been on the Middle Fork, my buddy got a permit for Aug 14. Snow pack looks pretty low? But I'm not super experienced with this section, how low can we expect?
> 
> For reference, we're a bunch of southeastern boaters used to shallow water like the Ocoee, looking to do small rafts and semi self support kayaks. A few r2s in RMRs, a few rowed pumas, and kayaks. Maybe one 15' round oar boat. A couple guys on the trip have done it before but only in June or early July.


It will be quite low but a trip not to miss. Been down over 60 times from 1.5 to 9 feet; each trip was a treat. #1 rule is run floor no more than half full till at least after Indian creek. If you pass through Boise and want some reads, give me a shout.


----------



## Seanter (Mar 16, 2019)

bamudd said:


> Hey y'all, I've never been on the Middle Fork, my buddy got a permit for Aug 14. Snow pack looks pretty low? But I'm not super experienced with this section, how low can we expect?
> 
> For reference, we're a bunch of southeastern boaters used to shallow water like the Ocoee, looking to do small rafts and semi self support kayaks. A few r2s in RMRs, a few rowed pumas, and kayaks. Maybe one 15' round oar boat. A couple guys on the trip have done it before but only in June or early July.


We ran August 22nd 2019 and had 1.63 ft when we started. Very low, but totally doable. 14 ft round boats, very soft to slide over rocks. We flew some gear in to Indian Creek, and had a great trip.
This year is a different animal though. Snow pack very low. I would expect around 1.4 that late, this year. Doable, and beautiful, but low. 
The fishing is phenomenal in August. Have fun!


----------



## Matt Leidecker (May 6, 2009)

Bamudd,

There is a lot good advice in here but I like to talk about rivers, so I will offer some more specifics.

1. Sounds like your crew has the experience, and is making good choices about the boat size/style of trip.
2. This is an exceptionally low water year. 2+ feet in July is going to be a pipe dream. No way you will see those flows in mid August. I have been having conversations with outfitters about the possibility of seeing record low flows that have not happened in decades. There is no way of knowing what will actually shake out, but it is going to be BONEY.
3. While I agree with most that it is still manageable, and doable, and "not that hard" the biggest factor in all of that is boating ability. The upper end of the Middle Fork below two feet is one of the most technical rafting rivers in the west (I don't have any east coast experience). I have seen plenty of people get pretty walloped up there if they don't have experience spinning, pulling, pushing, going from plan A to plan D, and the agility and willingness to jump out of a boat quickly mid rapid to push off rocks.
4. A competent forward-push rowing skill set is waaaaay handier than back-pulling. In many places, it is all about keeping your speed and making quick cuts into a deeper channel. You don't have time to be spinning your butt around to set up a new ferry angle.
5. No matter how hard you try, it is difficult to leave boundary light. No matter how you shake it, you still have 6 days worth of stuff for your group. This is one argument for flying in a load of gear to Indian Creek.
6. Re flying - I just did an April 4-day trip from Bernard. A 206 can carry one 14 foot raft, two people, and the gear. Depending on the # of boxes, etc. you are not guaranteed to get everything into one plane.
7. Look into the "private" dead-head option. If you can get it, you will want the extra day.
8. Float time is a big issue, and not just off the top. If you take two days to get to Indian, that leaves 75 miles over the next 4 days. That's an average of 18.75 miles a day, but it never breaks down that even, and the last night's camps are within the last 12 or so miles. You Will have a 20+ mile day on the river and you Will be getting into camp after 5 PM or later.
9. Low water shallows - Depending on the level, you will encounter a lot of frustrating low water shallows that don't seem to have a channel. If you are small and light (most of your boats are) these won't be much of a problem, but they slow the pace and can get tiring trying to forward push while much of your boat is dragging on the bottom.
10. "Bouncing" out of the boat - Make sure your crew is prepped and ready for engagement at all levels. Passengers who are not paying attention can easily get bounced by an unexpected hit. There will be plenty of unexpected hits... 
11. Oars - Two spares per boat. Period. This is probably what people struggle with the most. You will be making technical, last-minute moves in fast-moving shallow water, sideways and backwards. crabbing and popping or breaking an oar is a reality and blows your entire line. I don't want to open a debate on pins versus clips, but I would say this. If your crew is rowing w/o a fixed oar blade they will probably be ok. If they need pins/clips or oar rights it could be pushing their technical ability a bit.
12. Smoke - I don't want to be a downer, but I will also predict that you will have a smoky trip. Perhaps even unhealthy levels of smoke... This is an unfortunate reality we face due to a warming climate and this year is shaping up to be a bad fire season.
13. Crowding boats - beware of running too close to one another in these places (below), especially to avoid the hazard of people swimming into a pinned boat.

Upper-end hazards - The biggest hazard you will face is someone swimming a few of the fast-moving and very rocky rapids. These are the most difficult and/or dangerous spots:

First bend rapid - Right off the bat you will face swift, narrow maneuvering. The water is mostly deep enough, but it will test the groups skills right off the bat.
Pinball - Not dangerous, just slow and frustrating and hard to find the channel. 
Sulpher Slide - Fast, very technical, and NOT a good place to swim. Foot entrapment is a serious hazard so swimmers will just have to keep their feet up and take a beating on the backside. Once your swimming, you are pretty much in it until the end of the rapid.
Ramshorn - Stay left in the gravel to avoid a perfect black wrap rock you don't want to spend any time on.
Hells Half Mile - Frustrating, technical and hard to find a clean line in the entrance. Even if you space out, you will probably jam up a few boats in here
Velvet falls - Easy at this flow. 
The Upper Chutes - Annoying, shallow, and hard to find a clean line. You may spend a little time in this wide, shallow section.
The Chutes - Similar to sulphur slide, fast, very technical and NOT a good place to swim. Start with plan A and expect to finish with plan D. There is really no clean line, just the best combination of bounces and spins.
The Lower Chutes - Wide, annoying, and very little room to maneuver where there is water.
Powerhouse - The top section can grab boats, but you should be fine with your small craft. The middle section is fast and narrow with potential for a bad and looong swim through the bottom.
The Artillery Section - Depending on the flows, some of these can have very specific lines that, if you don't hit, will result in a drag fest. The section is long, not dangerous, but technical and annoyingly shallow in spots.
Lake Creek to Pistol Creek - This section of the river continues to evolve and may have some shallow sticky sections as the river bed continues to evolve from several fire-induced landslides. The left entrance of Pistol Creek is a fast-moving rush over bedrock with a distinct boat ripping/stopping fang you have to miss. The main rapid below is easy at low water.
Below Pistol you are pretty much home-free. You will encounter some more shallows below Indian Creek, the Pungo canyon section will be long and slow, and Cove Creek rapid in the Tappan series could get interesting at super low flows.
That said, I am not trying to dissuade you, just offer a realistic perspective on what you will encounter. The upper end is beautiful and fun technical boating, the lower canyon is one of the most incredible days of rafting you will do in your life! How well your group dynamics can handle the challenge is for you to determine. I love floating in August, the water is clear and you can swim like an otter but you WILL arrive in camp late and tired every day. It is DEFINATELY worth it, but assess your group dynamics and skill level accordingly. I took a pretty green crew down last year around 1.9 feet. They patched two floors after the first day. We had a SCARY swim in the chutes that was eye opening to me after nearly 30 years on the river. It was still a fantastic trip!

You may find this to be a helpful resource.





__





Idaho River Publications - Home Page


contentdescription



www.idahoriverpublications.com





Good luck and happy boating,

Matt Leidecker


----------



## reinharden (May 19, 2009)

As I was reading message #39 in this thread I thought to myself "Man, this reply is almost as good as having Matt Leidecker's guide book being read to me".

So of course it was Matt writing the reply. Thanks Matt!

Just to reiterate what Matt only hinted at, buy Matt Leidecker's guide book and memorize the suggested low water lines. You'll get stuck much, much less often if you've some general ideas what's going on before you're in there.

The top 25 miles drop roughly 1000 feet so you're dropping 40' per mile on average and at low water you will basically be dancing on your oars the entire time. It's not technically difficult whitewater, but it is often constant technically tight maneuvering. In any given rapid (or occasionally slow-pid at these levels), the last thing you'll have time to do is glance at a guidebook to figure out whether you should be cheat left or right. And with a large group it'll be rare to find an eddy where one can stop with like 12 boats and have a chat. [In truth, with that large of a flotilla at the lower flows, it'd maybe make a little sense to purposefully split into 3 or 4 boat squadrons and keep those folks separated a little bit from one another. Piling up multiple stuck rafts can complicate things quickly -- although one can also use the upstream raft's momentum to bump the stuck raft free.]

I think 2021 is going to be near historic lows, so I'd think hard about going as light as possible, perhaps even forgoing ice or only flying coolers into Indian Creek. Regardless, it's definitely doable.

But by the time you get to August I'd be thinking about planning for a short mileage first day because you never launch as early as you expect and these will be the hardest miles of the trip. At low water, I often try and get Trail Flat hot springs camp (RM 6.9) just because folks need a hot spring after getting down those first 6.9 miles. Typically then I try for Dolly Lake / Big Snag (RM 19 / 19.1) for the second day. If you're only doing 6 days total, that only leaves 4 days for the last 80 miles (and often you're only doing 10'sh miles the last day), but at low water doing 20 miles per day below Pistol is way, way, way easier than doing a ton of miles on the upper section.

I've done very low water of the top with a 2 person 16' paddle raft backpacking style with a partner with no real rafting experience as well as a 3 person and a 100 pound dog 16' paddle raft (one boat trip!) and we were able to Tom Sawyer the entire way without getting stuck more than momentarily. Similar flows on a 3 person / 2 traditionally loaded raft trip can be substantially more work. So the more you take, especially up top, the more work you're going to be doing.

Regardless, I hope ya'll have a blast!

PS: Take your worse blades for the top and take spare blades. You're almost certainly going to have fewer than you started with.


----------



## showme44 (May 13, 2013)

Matt, thanks for the info. We have a July 6 launch. Like everyone, hoping for at least 2.0.


----------



## showme44 (May 13, 2013)

P.S. love your book.


----------



## Soup76 (Aug 19, 2009)

Man. This thread is bringing back some memories. I have run the upper at 1.7 a few times and it can be an ass kicker. You have to be on your oars non stop. I looked away for a few seconds and got stuck for 5 minutes. What really got me was the afternoon shadows. It hides the FU rocks really well. I designated my wife as the 'rock spotter' which she really excelled at, since she was usually the one getting out of the boat to get us unstuck. Leave the tubes soft and never let your guard down. The MF will will kick you square and junk and laugh as float by.


----------



## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

This is one of the best threads on the Buzz in a long time. It's getting me pumped for my July 9 and Sep 1 trips! Two low water trips with one (the Sep 1) excepted to be VERY low! I'm still holding out hope that July 9 will be at or above 2.0, but I fully expect the Sep 1 to be at, or very near, historic lows... Speaking of that, what is the lowest recorded flow? Or, what is the lowest you have floated the MFS?


----------



## kayak007 (Feb 16, 2016)

This low water guide is helpful: Low Water Considerations for the Middle Fork of the Salmon River | Northwest Rafting Company


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Getting better by the second. Hard rain, and snow at higher elevation tonight. Bring it.


----------



## svskyus (Jan 23, 2020)

Carvedog, did you get the rain and snow you were hoping for?


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

It hit the upper Middle Fork a bit but not as much as south of there. We had four or five inches of snow up high. It generally added moisture to the drainage further east and up North though.


----------



## [email protected] (Jun 1, 2010)

IDriverRunner said:


> This is one of the best threads on the Buzz in a long time. It's getting me pumped for my July 9 and Sep 1 trips! Two low water trips with one (the Sep 1) excepted to be VERY low! I'm still holding out hope that July 9 will be at or above 2.0, but I fully expect the Sep 1 to be at, or very near, historic lows... Speaking of that, what is the lowest recorded flow? Or, what is the lowest you have floated the MFS?


We are launching July 9th also, Black ford F150 with one orange and one red RMR 12 footer. Stop by and say hi.

Scott/Mark/Brandee


----------



## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

[email protected] said:


> We are launching July 9th also, Black ford F150 with one orange and one red RMR 12 footer. Stop by and say hi.
> 
> Scott/Mark/Brandee


Haha I'll say say hi all week long. We're in the same group!

-Nate


----------



## [email protected] (Jun 1, 2010)

I sometimes have an old moment, this was one!!!


----------



## showme44 (May 13, 2013)

[email protected] said:


> We are launching July 9th also, Black ford F150 with one orange and one red RMR 12 footer. Stop by and say hi.
> 
> Scott/Mark/Brandee


What are you guys guestamating your flow to be on 9th?


----------



## IDriverRunner (Aug 18, 2015)

showme44 said:


> What are you guys guestamating your flow to be on 9th?


I'm still trying to hold out hope for it be over 2.0


----------



## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

I think you are looking just under 2 feet and hope it's not under 1.8. Historical comparisons showing closer to the lower number.


----------



## TFVandal (Oct 6, 2015)

1.8ish


----------



## UseTheSpinMove (Nov 16, 2016)

The title of this thread is about August dates... I am going with a small group on June 12... have been fascinated to watch the gauge drop and the forecasts project what they project... seems like we are going already be having later-summer-ish flows in June, let alone July 9... let alone August. Barring any big sudden snow or big rains, it's on the way down it seems already. Wondering if we'll be below 3 feet or even closer to 2 feet already by the end of our trip. Bizarre times. Good thing it's such a beautiful place or all of this time spent look at the gauges and having my emotions go up and down about it wouldn't be worth it!


----------



## showme44 (May 13, 2013)

UseTheSpinMove said:


> The title of this thread is about August dates... I am going with a small group on June 12... have been fascinated to watch the gauge drop and the forecasts project what they project... seems like we are going already be having later-summer-ish flows in June, let alone July 9... let alone August. Barring any big sudden snow or big rains, it's on the way down it seems already. Wondering if we'll be below 3 feet or even closer to 2 feet already by the end of our trip. Bizarre times. Good thing it's such a beautiful place or all of this time spent look at the gauges and having my emotions go up and down about it wouldn't be worth it!


I have made the call to fly in our whole group July 6. We shall support Idaho Aviation this year.


----------



## mukunig (May 30, 2006)

Yikes, I've been watching the SWE numbers drop like crazy for the Middle Fork - it is down to 19% of the 1981-2010 median and has been dropping every day https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/id_swepctnormal_update.pdf

It seems there is hardly any snow - how low might the river get by July or August? 1.6 for the July 9th trip mentioned above? lower?


----------

