# Major flood risk headed for rivers in Central California



## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

The river forecasts may top the historic charts given this latest series of storms coming into the region. 

South Fork American River is forecasted for 72,000 cfs Monday Morning. It normally runs at about 500cfs. 

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZpCQJ-QdAc

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZPlkiSzgkA&t=391s

Rivers are going to get big!


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## Gardenvalleykayaker (Jul 23, 2011)

Unbelievable! Thanks for posting this. Wish I could fly down there just to witness that. 


Sent from my iPhone using Mountain Buzz


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

> Heavy precipitation for parts of Northern and Central California, and southern Oregon, Sat-Wed, Jan 7-11.
> 
> Freezing rain for portions of the valleys of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West, Sat-Sun, Jan 7-8.
> 
> Heavy snow for parts of the Cascades, Sat-Wed, Jan 7-11.


We have a fair bit of snow in Redmond Oregon.
Expecting rain Sunday.
We don't flood much here because of the geology.
But elsewhere this be pretty serious.


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## Pizzle (Jun 26, 2007)

Yep, by the end of the week Squawlywood will have received more snow in less than two weeks than Colorado has all season.


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

What all the concern is about:



> Up to 12 inches of rain below 8,500 feet is expected, and massive amounts of snow — up to 6 feet — above that elevation. A fourth, colder storm two days behind will drop yet more heavy snow.


Plenty of doom:

California braces for &apos;once-in-10-year&apos; storm amid fears of flooding, avalanches, blizzards - LA Times


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## jbolson (Apr 6, 2005)

Gee, seems like either drought or flood for CA these days. Of course this is in line with climate change predictions, but for the deniers it is obviously a hoax.


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## UriahJones (Aug 10, 2015)

Here's to hoping that some of that action heads north and we get a refresh of some rain. Everything here in Oregon is just frigid. Water levels dropping on even low elevation rivers due to ice and snow. Send the white stuff to the mountains!


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## Denray (Sep 14, 2010)

I heard that the drought ended in California on election day from all the crying that went on because Trump was elected?


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## oarframe (Jun 25, 2008)

*Truckee river water park in Reno*

someone got out and enjoyed the flood...

Watch: Rafter on flood-swollen Truckee River in Reno

hope it posts.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

I came across footage of Yosemite falls at flood stage on their FB page. 

Pretty intense to see all that water dropping a thousand feet...

-AH


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## fourtyfloater (Aug 26, 2011)

That oarsmen on the Truckee just calmly parks his oar, takes a healthy shot of some whiskey for the audience and does a graceful exit. Love it.


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

So, while there's been a lot of Cali coast and Sierra rain and snow, is it correct that the total amount so far, knowing more is on the way, is less than some of the earliest predictions, such as one newscasters comment on 5 - 10 feet of snow? Where did the Souht Fork of the American end up?


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

I got on the lower-t at 13-15000 on Saturday. It was a bit much. https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipOCiuMkrrenV59pJL1dQnCilSUTY6rLOoTCxydf


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

NERD ALERT! You would think that with all this rain and snow that has come in California this heavy rainy season that every reservoir in the state would be overflowing. This is not the case yet. California built some big reservoirs in the last 100 years. And none of the top ten largest are full. Take Don Pedro for example, it is just about 80% full. And there is still about 400,000 acre feet of volume left (AF). You could drain all three upstream reservoirs (Cherry, Hetch Hetchy, and Lake Elenor) and then it would be full. As of today's flow data the states top ten reservoirs are 63% full. With 7,216,906 AF of additional volume. That is enough water to fill both Shast (the state's largest reservoir) and Don Pedro from empty to full.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxBVl1T2wtURkkH85rm-lqMaL-H5DscVEfHcXOFry_o/edit#gid=1302994285


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

duct tape said:


> So, while there's been a lot of Cali coast and Sierra rain and snow, is it correct that the total amount so far, knowing more is on the way, is less than some of the earliest predictions, such as one newscasters comment on 5 - 10 feet of snow? Where did the Souht Fork of the American end up?


Lower than forecast about 30,000cfs this morning at Chili Bar.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

duct tape said:


> So, while there's been a lot of Cali coast and Sierra rain and snow, is it correct that the total amount so far, knowing more is on the way, is less than some of the earliest predictions, such as one newscasters comment on 5 - 10 feet of snow? Where did the Souht Fork of the American end up?


My understanding is the storm was very warm, much less snow fell than rain, and a lot of the existing snowpack was melted by the warmer rains. And that upcoming storms will be colder and bring more snow.

-AH


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## Pinned (Apr 19, 2012)

fourtyfloater said:


> That oarsmen on the Truckee just calmly parks his oar, takes a healthy shot of some whiskey for the audience and does a graceful exit. Love it.


Very reckless behavior. 



buckmanriver said:


> NERD ALERT! You would think that with all this rain and snow that has come in California this heavy rainy season that every reservoir in the state would be overflowing. This is not the case yet. California built some big reservoirs in the last 100 years. And none of the top ten largest are full. Take Don Pedro for example, it is just about 80% full. And there is still about 400,000 acre feet of volume left (AF). You could drain all three upstream reservoirs (Cherry, Hetch Hetchy, and Lake Elenor) and then it would be full. As of today's flow data the states top ten reservoirs are 63% full. With 7,216,906 AF of additional volume. That is enough water to fill both Shast (the state's largest reservoir) and Don Pedro from empty to full.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxBVl1T2wtURkkH85rm-lqMaL-H5DscVEfHcXOFry_o/edit#gid=1302994285


They never let the reservoirs fill up in the winter. They have to consider the amount of water "stored" in the contributing basin and manage the runoff. If they filled up to 100% they would be in big trouble during the next event with no capacity to attenuate the flow, which leads to major flooding. Although this storm was warm, the remaining snow pack is saturated. If it gets cold and stays cold there is a substantial amount of water remaining for spring.


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## elkhaven (Sep 11, 2013)

buckmanriver said:


> NERD ALERT! (cut for brevity)... And none of the top ten largest are full. Take Don Pedro for example, it is just about 80% full. And there is still about 400,000 acre feet of volume left (AF). You could drain all three upstream reservoirs (Cherry, Hetch Hetchy, and Lake Elenor) and then it would be full. (also cut for brevity)


FWIW, 400,000 acre-feet is approximately the annual flow through of our local aquifer/river system here in the Gallatin Valley. That really does illustrate how low things were getting over there. An entire years worth of precipitation for a basin the extends from Yellowstone National Park to north and west of Bozeman - approximately 1795 square miles. Wow. That impresses/scares me!


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

Pinned said:


> They never let the reservoirs fill up in the winter.


This is a bit of a generalization - oversimplification of water management in California during the winter season. 

Yes, one key benefit of reservoirs is that they help abate flooding through river flow control and if they are filled they can not do that. As is such water managers have outflow requirements. Example Folsom Resivor can not exceed 60% capacity before April, first of the water year. All extra is released through outflow into the delta. Hints it was releasing 30,000cfs over the weekend.


However, none of the states top ten, however, had outflows that high. 

Take New Melones Lake at 29% volume for example, yesterday its outflow was 29cfs and its in flow was ~24000cfs. 
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?NML

The data suggest they are trying to fill New Melones up in the winter. 

Lastly, the scale of these top 10 reservoirs can be hard to quantfy. Attached is a photo of New Melones from November 2015. Note the kayakers under the old small bridge. It was so low then that the camp 9 run on the Stanislaus river arose from the empty basin once again. 

Cheers' ~ B


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## Pinned (Apr 19, 2012)

buckmanriver said:


> This is a bit of a generalization - oversimplification of water management in California during the winter season.
> 
> Cheers' ~ B


Hence the rest of my statement, which I think was right in line with yours? 

Luckily, these days, they are getting much better with their modeling so can better anticipate the water (if they have any) in storage. Each year the models become more complex and are given more data for calibration so they are that much more accurate. 

I think blanket rules, such as used in Folsom, will become a thing of the past. With proper management we can hopefully manage the water so it maximizes the storage, and future use, available. Folsom has been scared since it almost failed so has spent close to $1B to build the auxiliary spillway. 

Until we have had time and resources to model every basin and have resources to gather the real time data, we will continue using over simplified generalizations.


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

PS from the last paragraph:

Three months of heavy and sometimes record-breaking precipitation in this basin has still not dropped enough water to fill this monster of a reservoir. Not even close. Let the photo above be the example for the volume available to fill.


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## buckmanriver (Apr 2, 2008)

Pinned said:


> I think blanket rules, such as used in Folsom, will become a thing of the past. With proper management we can hopefully manage the water so it maximizes the storage, and future use, available.



This is a *good point* and to say what you said, in my own words:

The technology is available to control outflow in a way that it minimize flood risk and maximize storage.

However, efficient management and revisions to out of date water policy are what is trailing behind. 

As a result, California and in the western US in general, have done a much better job at building huge reservoirs to store water than we are at creating effective policy to fill them. Even in the face of global climate change which may have caused the warming in the arctic and the frequent atmospheric rivers that California has been experiencing this water season. Our biggest reservoirs are still far from full. 

~ Cheers B


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## Pinned (Apr 19, 2012)

Agreed!


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

buckmanriver said:


> Lower than forecast about 30,000cfs this morning at Chili Bar.


Nothing to sneeze at!


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

duct tape said:


> So, while there's been a lot of Cali coast and Sierra rain and snow, is it correct that the total amount so far, knowing more is on the way, is less than some of the earliest predictions, such as one newscasters comment on 5 - 10 feet of snow? Where did the Souht Fork of the American end up?


Hmm, so maybe my sarcasm toward the weather prediction for California (based much on the typical Weather Channel and talking heads need to name every incoming winter storm and label it with "decade" or "century" modifiers) was a little off in this case. 

Looks like yards, rather than feet, might be the unit of measurement for Sierra snow before this one is over. While Cali desperately needs the water, here's hoping folks don't lose their homes, property, lives getting it. 

Typing this inside my house which has been trying to blow away for three days from the remnants of the Pineapple Express.

Jon


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