# CO snowpack



## jeffsssmith

Most of the state is in the 80 percentile of normal snowpacks which is getting better but it still needs to keep snowing to maintain that average. If we get very little snow for the next two months the season will be short.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Western+US


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## rockinRio

March and April will tell the tail. That is when we historically get the most snow.

The other thing to wish/pray for is that the spring is cold. If we get a ton of snow in March and April but have a warm spring it will melt fast and likely won't make run-offs.

NOAA's Climate Prediction graphs can give you an idea of what the experts expect.

Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook


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## DanOrion

We're still tracking at 2002-2004 levels in the Colorado Basin. Better tune up the mountain bike, because it's not going to be much of a boating season and will seem even worse since last year was so epic. I'll be making some "Mountain Bike Clear Creek" stickers this year.


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## BrianK

Could be worse - much of California is at 30-40% of average


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## bobbuilds

rockinRio said:


> March and April will tell the tail. That is when we historically get the most snow.
> 
> The other thing to wish/pray for is that the spring is cold. If we get a ton of snow in March and April but have a warm spring it will melt fast and likely won't make run-offs.
> 
> NOAA's Climate Prediction graphs can give you an idea of what the experts expect.
> 
> Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook


quoted for truth.

pray for a cold wet one boys and girls, we are starting to get there, but like was said. if it is wet and warm, we'll lose it fast. just like in bed.


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## jeffsssmith

bobbuilds said:


> quoted for truth.
> 
> pray for a cold wet one boys and girls, we are starting to get there, but like was said. if it is wet and warm, we'll lose it fast. just like in bed.


 
Then we just start earlier


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## Jahve

The Ark is looking to be about 85% the graph below is a good one to see how we are stacking up. Water storage in the upper basin is looking good so the flow program should get us water until Aug 15th.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotark12.gif


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## GrooveNinja

Just updated for March-May. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif


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## DanOrion

This summer, I'll be mounting wheels on my creekboat.


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## rastaman

*kinda poor*

I just flew over the Arkansas valley, San Juan and Animas basin and did a completely subjective non-scientific assessment of the snowpack. Mi opinion: dramatically less than last year. Duh! The Sangre de Cristo are dry. Very little snow on the Ark. The snow in SW CO looks much better. 

It now depends. On how quickly we warm up.

I'm not getting a new boat. New bike very likely.

There's always Bailey, right?


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## F.A.A.C. Slim

I've been watching the Red Mtn Pass SNOTEL site. In the past week the snow depth gage has dropped from 64" to 54" and more importantly the water equivalent has decreased by 1/2" down to 16". That water did not sink into the snowpack; it has dissapeared into the air. And will continue to "evaporate" as long as mid-day temps stay above 40 degrees and the humidity stays low. What little water there is in the snowpack is not going to much more than wet the ground; I don't see much of any runoff for spring boating I'm sad to say.


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## deepsouthpaddler

A solid week are warm march weather doesn't help much. Hoping we get back to some cold weather and storms. 

I'm not ready to throw in the towel or sell my kayak gear though. We won't have anywhere near the water, we had last season, but we will still have water in the rivers, and the dryer season, means that some of the dam control runs like the colorado, bailey, gunnison etc can pick up some of the slack from natural runoff.

My prediction: I will have a lot of fun this year regardless of what the snowpack % number is.


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## bobbuilds

I am with you guys, I am staying positive and hoping for snow. I am going to have an awesome season too, regardless of the snow pack. lots of gore, bailey. I am also going up to Idaho this fall. i'm so fired up...

And I'll definately be getting a new boat, through warranty


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## ACC

Is escalante in yet?


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## rastaman

I'm not too worried about the poor snowpack. There are lot of things I don't run mid season because they are too high. So an average boater like me should be able to find plenty of things to do this season. May need to drive a bit more.

On the other hand: if we had more water we'd be spending more time on the water and less time typing about being in the water.


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## ChasetheWater

Any insight to 11 mile/cheesman potential this year Ian?


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## bobbuilds

ChasetheWater said:


> Any insight to 11 mile/cheesman potential this year Ian?


dude, good call. 
I am not ready for cheeseman, but I need more 11 mile.
those are fun runs! It has been added to the list.


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## deepsouthpaddler

Upper south platte basin which feeds cheeseman and eleven mile is pretty weak. Worst of the south platte drainage last I checked. It was in the 70% range vs 90 ish for much of the rest if the front range. I would think that means a weak season for cheese and elevenmile. Flip side is denver water is likely to need more water from the tunnel, so Bailey could have a good year.


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## lmyers

From the CAIC today:

"Upstream observations show a lot of blowing dust (over Farmington NM) to go with some moderate snow there."

The brown cloud has descended upon the Arkansas Valley....the sky is brown all around. Hopefully we don't end up with too thick of a layer on top of the snow. That could shorten the melt time for our already wimpy snowpack...


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## Meng

If its in the sky, its gonna be on the snow.... A recent article on dust on snow researchers in the San Juans: Watch Newspapers - Our Rapidly Shrinking Water Supply


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## Preston H.

not sure about the rest of the state, but there have been more dust on snow events than usual this year in the Rio Grande basin. In a lot of places, the two most recent dust layers have already converged. Boo to short, quick runoff.


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## mvhyde

This is going to be a very short season this year. The La Nina/El Nino flip came faster than ever. Maybe we'll get lucky and get some snow in April, but I doubt it.


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## DanOrion




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## Jensjustduckie

Another interesting article on our dwindling snowpack and climate change:

Endless summer: Ski resorts struggle to keep terrain open in new climate change frontier | The Colorado Independent


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## deepsouthpaddler

Thats an awesome pic Dan! I need that set up for my mankboat!


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## waterismyfriend

*short season?*

Hmmm, I don't know - just got off a 7 day on the San Juan - the best part about shitty weather and low water is it scares all the sissys off. 
I'm looking forward to another shoulder wrenching technical water year... If you want big waves go to water world.
I'll be the one rocking Clear Creek at 120 CFS with a shit eating grin on my face.


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## Barney Fife

waterismyfriend said:


> Hmmm, I don't know - just got off a 7 day on the San Juan
> 
> WIMF, How was the upper San Juan? I put in on the 11th and stay on until the 14th, all on the SI to MH section. I can't wait. Any trip advice or fun information to share?


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