# Is it time to worry yet?



## zipbak (Dec 3, 2007)

Is it time to worry yet?
I feel confident in saying that last year (Water Year 2012) for the Arkansas valley was one of the four worst since the Dust Bowl. 2012 was right up there with 1977, 1981, and 2002. Guess what. So far Water Year 2013 is worse. At the moment, we are matching 2002. 

Here are two charts. (OK, I can't paste the graphs here, you'll have to look it up yourself) One compares this year so far with the past 6 years and the second compares it with 1981, and 2002 the average and the maximum. (Can’t get the data for ’77.) This is based on Snotel sites. Some of the Snotel sites are far downstream an don’t impact whitewater, but collectively they are a good measure of central tendency. The upper Snotel sites, more indicative of what’s in store for Granite and on down through Browns (for example, Bromely) are even worse that the average. If you want to play this game yourself, check out:
http://www.cpachecojr.com/cgi-bin/work/get_basin.cgi 


then select Basin SWE line graphs 

You can run the numbers for all the Colorado drainages and pick up to 6 years to compare on the graph. Have fun. It’s supposed to snow Friday and Saturday.


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## CBrown (Oct 28, 2004)

Pray for a big spring. Bring on June-uary.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Yes it's time to worry Zipbak. We have significantly less snow and less water stored in reservoirs than we did last year at the same time. It is going to take monster snows just to get us back up to average. Frankly I'm very concerned about our boating season on the Ark for 2013...


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## FastFXR (May 22, 2012)

I told my Dad that if we don't get any snow here (Colorado) then I'm spending my summer in Montana (work makes it easy that way). 
Not so sure Montana will have it any better. You can kiss my 'climate change' a$$...this be global warming.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

This month's WSF from NRCS has seasonal runoff for the Ark as 50 to 70% of average:
NRCS - Colorado Snow Survey - Basin Outlook Report Summary

The Drought Outlook has Colorado in the middle of persistence:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

Across the west Colorado is the state that's the worst off snowpack-wise:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


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## Chief Niwot (Oct 13, 2003)

I am not worried about boating, I am worried about fire and my well. Praying for snow! Another thing to consider is soil moisture, I know it is really low in Western Boulder County.


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Yes. I'm concerned about the snowpack.

That site linked by the OP is a really cool one. I hadn't seen that before. 

When I plotted this year, max and average and did some fiddling (south platte drainage).... it looks like if we get as much snow from today to peak pack as the max year, we could get this year back to average. Odds are its going to be another very low water year, which sucks royally.


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## rpludwig (Feb 28, 2011)

lmyers, isn't the Ark water meeting coming up? Are you going?


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## LSB (Mar 23, 2004)

FastFXR said:


> I told my Dad that if we don't get any snow here (Colorado) then I'm spending my summer in Montana (work makes it easy that way).
> Not so sure Montana will have it any better. You can kiss my 'climate change' a$$...this be global warming.


44 and raining in Missoula all day yesterday


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## jmack (Jun 3, 2004)

The issue with worrying is that it doesn't actually help. What does help is paddling all of the good runs in Colorado that have water even in dry years.


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## rrb3 (Sep 30, 2009)

I wonder how much cloud seeding is affecting snowfall in different regions. I know the Grand Mesa is getting pounded this year and I'm curious how much of this is due to the cloud seeding they are trying. Anyone have more information on this topic?


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

rpludwig said:


> lmyers, isn't the Ark water meeting coming up? Are you going?


Yes I will be there, but it's not specifically a "water meeting". It is a meeting of the Citizen's Task Force administered by the AHRA. Many players will be there including BLM, Front Range Water entities and city representatives. It will be the best opportunity for the public to voice concerns and obtain information regarding upcoming operations related to the river.

The actual meeting where the decisions are made concerning rationing and releases of next years' water will take place very soon, but behind closed doors that are not open to the public.


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## BrianK (Feb 3, 2005)

What is Denver going to do if we don't get more snow? Dillon is already so low - I don't think we can count on another summer of 300 cfs north fork runs all day every day.


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## David Spiegel (Sep 26, 2007)

Brian- Last year, we had so much water in the south platte because Denver didn't really put any water restrictions in place. I think you are right, if the snowpack doesn't shape up then Denver will have to start restricting peoples' water usage instead of bringing tons of water over. After all, farmers in the Grand Valley will still be calling for their water and it has to come from somewhere.


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## rpludwig (Feb 28, 2011)

lmyers said:


> Yes I will be there, but it's not specifically a "water meeting". It is a meeting of the Citizen's Task Force administered by the AHRA. Many players will be there including BLM, Front Range Water entities and city representatives. It will be the best opportunity for the public to voice concerns and obtain information regarding upcoming operations related to the river.
> 
> The actual meeting where the decisions are made concerning rationing and releases of next years' water will take place very soon, but behind closed doors that are not open to the public.


Right on, I would like to hear your opinion on the Citizen's Task Force administered by the AHRA meeting. I would like to join you, but it sound like you got it handled.
Robert


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## deepsouthpaddler (Apr 14, 2004)

Re: Denver water and the north fork...

Upper South Platte Drainage snowpack is very low currently. Something like 37% of average. This portion of the south platte basin is where denver water gets its front range snowmelt that goes into cheeseman, elevenmile etc, and is the primary water storage and supply for denver water. Upper blue river is around 60% of average last time I looked. 

I spoke with the Denver Water folks about this just this week. In 2002, reservoir storage was low, and snowpack was really bad. The north fork ran at very similar flows (tunnel and total flows) to what it did last year. Lots of days in the 250-350 range. I would expect similar this coming year unless something big happens.

Dillon is low, but they will have water to deliver to Denver. People forget that dillon isn't a sailboat lake, its a water storage reservoir. 

One interesting tidbit is what happens if there is a colorado river compact call. Denver Water noted that if lower basin states make calls for water that there is a disagreement on what happens. Denver Water thinks that it could divert stored water from dillon through the tunnel, and let natural runoff inflow pass through to feed the call. Others interpret it differently as say that roberts tunnel should be shut off completely. There is apparently something in the colorado compact that says that out of basin diversions should be the first to stop if there isn't enough water in the colorado to support downstream states. It would probably end up in litigation as its a thorny issue with major impacts.

I agree with Jmack... worrying doesn't do anything... On the other hand... steeling yourself for the reality that we will likely have a repeat of last year, start taking some prozac or something like that and get ready for bummer season 2.0.

Gore and Bailey really saved last year for me. They will be around from march/april until the snow starts falling the the fall. I really miss high water clear creek, manking down SSV, big south when the gate is open...


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

rpludwig said:


> Right on, I would like to hear your opinion on the Citizen's Task Force administered by the AHRA meeting. I would like to join you, but it sound like you got it handled.
> Robert


I am not a member of the CTF (although I would like to be) and haven't really contributed anything to the meetings other than asking a few questions. You are certainly welcome to sit in on the meeting as anyone is. I find them interesting and will continue to attend every one, even if I am not on the panel. There is always a short time period where you can ask questions or give input.


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## yakr (Apr 30, 2010)

Looks like it will be another good year for road trips to the west. 

Cali is looking pretty good so far at 121% of normal.
Snow Pack Conditions - Snow Water Content Chart


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## shappattack (Jul 17, 2008)

You need to start re-calibrating what is % of normal. This year the agencies that do this data collection and reporting started using a new base line to determine % of average. The base line is a 30 year period and it shifted starting with this water year, forward 10 years. This left out several wet years in the 70s and now includes many recent dryer years. The effect is an overal skew down of what is "average" or "normal", which ultimately skews upwards any % of average stats. There can be some signifcant differences when using the old and new baseline for calculating these stats. For example, in the owyhee the current % of average SWE estimate is about 17% greater under the new baseline than using the old baseline.
a good discussion is found in the Idaho water outlook report, but isn't just speciic to Idaho, but everywhere in the U.S. for reports generated by these agencies.
ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/ID/snow/watersupply/bor/2013/borid113.pdf

Bottom line, things are even worse than they appear, especially for areas that are currently significantly below average, and of concern for my favorite place, the Owyhee


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## Ole Rivers (Jul 7, 2005)

lmyers said:


> I am not a member of the CTF (although I would like to be) and haven't really contributed anything to the meetings other than asking a few questions. You are certainly welcome to sit in on the meeting as anyone is. I find them interesting and will continue to attend every one, even if I am not on the panel. There is always a short time period where you can ask questions or give input.


Since these meetings are of statewide interest and because time, cost and/or scheduling conflicts make it difficult for those who would otherwise participate, comment, etc., how about setting up one- or, preferably, two-way live, remote videoconferencing via, say, Skype, FaceTime, GoToMeeting, UStream, etc on iPhones, iPads, etc.?


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## Ole Rivers (Jul 7, 2005)

jmack said:


> The issue with worrying is that it doesn't actually help. What does help is paddling all of the good runs in Colorado that have water even in dry years.


SB13-019 "Promote Water Conservation"

http://www.leg.state.co.us/CLICS/CL...C9875D7E87257AEE005716A6?Open&file=019_01.pdf

was introduced yesterday, 1/9/12, and may have an impact on non-consumptive, in-stream flows. At first read, it gets rid of the wasteful "use it or lose it" practice of water consumption. It may help get the bill passed if you contact your State Representative and Senator in support and/or let the Task Force know to collectively support it.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Ole Rivers said:


> Since these meetings are of statewide interest and because time, cost and/or scheduling conflicts make it difficult for those who would otherwise participate, comment, etc., how about setting up one- or, preferably, two-way live, remote videoconferencing via, say, Skype, FaceTime, GoToMeeting, UStream, etc on iPhones, iPads, etc.?


Feel free to inquire with AHRA about it, but I doubt Rob will show too much interest. They have their hands full as it is and expect the public to make the effort to show up if they have concerns (the 2 private boater reps drive from Denver for every meeting). This might be something they would be open to for maybe one of their speakers, but I don't see the meetings being streamed live for the public anytime soon.


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## elcaposwimteam (May 16, 2009)

"The sky is falling, the sky if falling!"- Chicken Little

The time to worry is after our snowiest month (March). Until then stop worrying, its not good for your heart.


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## JDHOG72 (Jul 18, 2007)

Don't worry, be happy and go to Ecuador


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Not looking good. The latest from the CAIC:

"The low-pressure trough eventually starts to move east Monday afternoon as high pressure nudges into the western U.S. Temperatures will begin to rebound Tuesday. The bad news is that this is ushering in a prolonged dry period. No snow on the horizon for at least 10 days and likely longer starting Tuesday."

https://avalanche.state.co.us/pub_bc_wx.php?a


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## caspermike (Mar 9, 2007)

Montana already at 100 percent plus in most areas. Looking good
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/mt.txt

Wyoming report not looking good around the platte region.. Pray for good wet snow!
NRCS/WRDS Snowpack Data


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## mania (Oct 21, 2003)

found this informative map


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## Cbishop1 (Jun 19, 2012)

*comparison*

can anyone find the same map at this time last year?


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## mania (Oct 21, 2003)

Cbishop1 said:


> can anyone find the same map at this time last year?


NWCC - Spring & Summer Streamflow Forecast Maps


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

You can't compare the streamflow forecast maps between last year and this year. The 30 year baseline has shifted.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Here is an excellent graph showing the highest and lowest water years on record for the Ark Valley as well as this year, last year, 2002, 1997 and average. The 30 year average doesn't matter if you simply look at snow-water equivalent.


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## Phil U. (Feb 7, 2009)

Dayum!



lmyers said:


> Here is an excellent graph showing the highest and lowest water years on record for the Ark Valley as well as this year, last year, 2002, 1997 and average. The 30 year average doesn't matter if you simply look at snow-water equivalent.


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## mania (Oct 21, 2003)

Here is a good link for colorado

SNOTEL Basin Time Series Snowpack Summary Graphs | Colorado NRCS


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

lmyers said:


> Here is an excellent graph showing the highest and lowest water years on record for the Ark Valley...


Logan - Thanks for posting this. However, "depressing" is the adjective that comes to my mind.

That said, we still have February through May and the prospect of a good monsoon season this summer. Let's hope for a good wet spring with lots of big storms rolling in from the Pacific!

-AH


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Update of where we currently are in the Arkansas Valley:










I still have hope that we are going to see a continued wet pattern into spring, I just hope it continues for another month....or more.


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## adgeiser (May 26, 2009)

Lets hope this weekend snow is a major event. 

And that it continues...


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## tmacc (Sep 6, 2009)

Well, here in Park City, UT, It's not amounting to much. Maybe 4-6'' if we're lucky. However it is a really wet snow.


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## snakester (Apr 24, 2011)

*Early runoff*

Plateau creek on the north side of Grand Mesa was cranking tonight. Powderhorn had 3rd highest snowpack of the ski areas this winter. I'm not sure what this means if anything. But I'd venture to guess Westwater is ice free.


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## FastFXR (May 22, 2012)

This link really spells it out...and nicely too. It's not as bad as it may all seem...and we still have March and April yet to come!

March News Release | Colorado NRCS


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## Barney Fife (May 25, 2009)

*Smith?*



caspermike said:


> Montana already at 100 percent plus in most areas. Looking good
> ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/mt.txt
> 
> Mike, how's the snowpack around the Smith River? Think is got enough to float a 14ft raft on July 22nd? Gotta love how easy it was to get that permit, now I just need it to snow...


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## tango (Feb 1, 2006)

mania said:


> found this informative map


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## suigeneris (May 25, 2004)

*Ark*

Not to jump on the pessimistic bandwagon but after flying to phoenix yesterday and back the Collegiates do look horribly dry. The west side has more visible snow but the east side is thin at best south of Yale. Further south below BV towards Salida is most concerning as it looks like 'brown town'. However, the south central to southeast part of CO looked much better for snow coverage. I was quite surprised by the amount of snow just north and around the Salt River basin. Appears the runoff has begun in earnest as that Salt reservoir is full to the brim.


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## Chief Niwot (Oct 13, 2003)

From Joel Gratz, somewhat encouraging:

*Long range:*
"No details, but it does look like we'll have a good chance for storms from late March through early April. This doesn't mean it'll snow all the time or that we'll avoid a few days of warm sunny weather, because that's inevitable. I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't see weeks of snowless weather like we did last spring, and continued storms is good for snow coverage on the slopes and more importantly to beef up the snowpack for the spring runoff. We're at about 80% of average statewide and this typically peaks around April 10-15th before melting takes over and the snowpack sees a rapid decline."

After last years no snow spring, this is some welcome news. Let hope the snow goes right through April and into May!

In the statewide map below, we are about to hit 100% of last year with a month of snow to go hopefully. I know we are not going to hit overall average, but.... 

Loveland basin is at 80% of snow water equivelent, not sure where we were last year for loveland basin? Just trying to be optimisitic and hope it is better then last season.


ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotstate13.gif


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## adgeiser (May 26, 2009)

Al, I'm with you on the optimism thing but... The snowtel map I just looked at shows the south platte basin at 68%, state wide @ 77% ( largely d/t the SW portion of the state. 

But yes keep it coming. 
Boat with you soon


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

jmack said:


> The issue with worrying is that it doesn't actually help. What does help is paddling all of the good runs in Colorado that have water even in dry years.


Instead of worrying do what he said and plan.










Goto:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/sssf.pl
when April fools comes around for the update.


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## glenn (May 13, 2009)

Ouch. Bozeman area is green. We've got some goods and sort of on the way to even more goods in ID. Give a shout if that's your game plan.


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## montana_field (Mar 28, 2011)

I've never seen the Smith floatable in a raft after middle of July


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## zipbak (Dec 3, 2007)

The West is in a drought cycle for sure. Some drainages are better off than others. I'm naturally , most concerned about the upper Ark (cause I live here). So the graph shows us just over 2002 but still behind 2012. The minimum recorded was the first half of 1981 and the last half of 2002. We are at a really critical point. If the current trend continues, we'll be well below last year. If Joel's forecast holds true for the upper Ark, we might be ok.

(go here http://www.cpachecojr.com/cgi-bin/work/get_basin.cgi and select 2013, 2012, 2002, average and minimum t see what I mean. Not sure how to post that image--maybe someone can help.,)

One question i have about this data is the snotel sites reporting. For the upper Ark, Monarch and all the stuff that drains below the South Arkansas is irrelevant. Important for the Gorge, but not Pine Creek, Numbers, Browns, etc. Which of these are factored into the basin totals and which are relevant for which parts of the river? I have my guess but you have to drill down a little to get the real picture.

APISHAPA (e of alimosa)
BRUMLEY yes same as indy?
FREMONT PASS yes
GLEN COVE teller co. e of cospgs
HAYDEN PASS Saguache co
PORPHYRY CREEK Gunnison co but relevant
SAINT ELMO yes 
SOUTH COLONY custer county south
WHISKEY CK drains into S tributary of ark
Rough And Tumble

Michigan Creek
Porphyry Creek
Buckskin Joe
Fairplay
Monarch Mounta...
Fairplay
Brumley
Hayden Pass
Saint Elmo
Ski Cooper Ski...
Buena Vista
Maysville
Leadville


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

91% of last year now. Tonight's storm will put us near or over last year. If it continues to snow for at least a couple more storms we are likely to see more water in the Ark than last year, even though the reservoir storage is lower. They will have to move the runoff downstream almost immediately to holder's of senior rights. Plus word is that the upper Fryingpan and upper Roaring Fork are near 100% of average and the powers that be anticipate having all 10,000 acre ft available for the VFMP.... that means more water in July than last season.

The only sites that matter to Upper Ark flows are Brumely, Freemont, Ski Cooper, and Saint Elmo. The site the Fry-Ark managers look at to predict imports is Ivanhoe.

Saint Elmo only needs to be considered if your looking at it from a Browns Canyon perspective, otherwise you can leave it out.

I use photobucket to share images on forums.


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

zipbak said:


> (go here http://www.cpachecojr.com/cgi-bin/work/get_basin.cgi and select 2013, 2012, 2002, average and minimum t see what I mean. Not sure how to post that image--maybe someone can help.,)


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

*To consider*

When looking at the Drought Monitor:









Think about soil moistures.
If the soil is dry then the spring rains, if any, will be soaked up by the ground first. River flows, including spring fed, come later.

==============
==============

There are different ways to measure drought.
One is soil moisture and it is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index.








*K*eetch-*B*yram *D*rought *I*ndex = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation.
KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity.
KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively.
KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.

Much of Colorado is typical or even OK.
It could be worse.

Your cfm may vary.


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## cadster (May 1, 2005)

You can pick and choose at least the west slope SNOTEL's here:
Eagle2 Snotel Group
Frying Pan2 Snotel Group
Roaring Fk NRCS Snotel Group
Taylor Park Snotel Group


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## ukonom (Nov 21, 2008)

This article says soil moisture is at 28% of saturation for the Ark Basin...

Upper Ark conservancy district acquires water - TheMountainMail.com: Free Content


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## BilloutWest (Jan 25, 2013)

ukonom said:


> This article says soil moisture is at 28% of saturation for the Ark Basin...
> 
> Upper Ark conservancy district acquires water - TheMountainMail.com: Free Content


Good article.




> Viewed soil moisture data indicating 28 percent of saturation for the basin as a whole.


That may not be as bad as it sounds.
It could be that the highest saturation typically doesn't occur for a month or two or three. Lower saturation levels _may_ be normal for coming out of most winters.

Although, 28% ain't good.


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## BrianK (Feb 3, 2005)

Promising next couple days - lets hope this comes through.

Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page


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