# Corona virus effects on Launches?



## Critter70

Honestly if they start shutting everything down, I’m headed to the river. Perfect place to get away from all of it.


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## zbaird

Don't give them any ideas. 

River trips are small group and outside which limits exposure. Don't make out with your buddies in the kitchen and wash your hands. If someone is coughing , take them off kitchen duty, per usual and you might not want to share a tent. Norovirus is a bigger threat on the river.

I mean, yes! Cancel your permits while you can get your money back!


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## caverdan

Thank god we have the bestest and greatest leader the world has ever seen...... running this reality TV show.......It's a political hoax I tell ya. The Dems are behind this......it's all fake news.  Vote MAGA and it will all be gone in a few weeks.

(anyone have a roll of toilet paper I can borrow???)


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## griz

Apparently, in the post apocalyptic world, a roll of toilet paper will be the currency of choice. WHo knew?

It is an interesting glimpse into how rapidly stooopid things will get if something actually bad ever happens. 

As for rumors....I heard in China, 10 days after dying from the virus, the victims start coming back to life and shuffling around the streets, eating rats. So bring that AR 15 on your river trips for that possibility, too. There was a OARS commercial trip that went sick and then missing down in the Grand Canyon last week...so be ready. Truth!


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## tetoncounty

I'm floating the Salt in two weeks, driving down from Wyoming. I'm concerned that Governors will call out the National Guard to block roads while I'm down there, and I won't be able to get home.


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## jbolson

A valid concern in my opinion. Travel restrictions are already in play.


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## caverdan

tetoncounty said:


> I'm floating the Salt in two weeks, driving down from Wyoming. I'm concerned that Governors will call out the National Guard to block roads while I'm down there, and I won't be able to get home.


I think you'll have problems leaving the state instead of returning home. At least you have a couple of weeks to watch the situation unfold. I feel for you and anyone else with near future travel plans. Good luck buzzards.


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## letsgoh2o

I heard the coronavirus was attached to successful Yampa launch emails for trips between June 22 and July 10. I recommend dropping them today.






JK...but watching rec.gov...


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## GeoRon

jbolson said:


> A valid concern in my opinion. Travel restrictions are already in play.


I agree. An abundance of caution now is much better than an abundance of regret later. These aren't firm numbers but potentially over 5x more contagious, 5x more latent and 5x the mortality of the common flu in my age group is a bug not to trivialize.


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## Joedills

caverdan said:


> Thank god we have the bestest and greatest leader the world has ever seen...... running this reality TV show.......It's a political hoax I tell ya. The Dems are behind this......it's all fake news.  Vote MAGA and it will all be gone in a few weeks.
> 
> (anyone have a roll of toilet paper I can borrow???)


Found Some


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## Nubie Jon

Hey Gov Polis (Co) just said group gatherings of 250 people or less are ok...... So keep your launch groups under 250!


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## GeoRon

Joedills said:


> Found Some


Suitable use of something so emblematic of incessant-brazen lying, hate, misogyny, racism, xenophobia, cheating, stealing, etc. But I should stop there before I say how I really feel. Perhaps we should move our thoughts to "The Eddy".


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## raymo

"caverdan"... "some people are like glow sticks...you want to shake them till the light come on"........that totally explains why my mother shook me so much when I was younger. I've had crabs for a year and a half, that's all I need is the corona virus now, but I only hang around with health conscious people so I should be fine, I'm sure.


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## caverdan

I'm out of here.......since I posted this morning.......three black helicopters have circled my house.....:shock: :shock: :shock:


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## Joedills

raymo said:


> "caverdan"... "some people are like glow sticks...you want to shake them till the light come on"........that totally explains why my mother shook me so much when I was younger. I've had crabs for a year and a half, that's all I need is the corona virus now, but I only hang around with health conscious people so I should be fine, I'm sure.


I prefer "Some people are like slinkys. Generally useless, but put a smile on your face when pushed down a staircase". 

Yes, it's easy to get "eddied out" in these forums. What were we talking about originally?


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## dirtbagkayaker

I'm trying not to get my hopes up. But, if no one is watching the chickens, this fox is going to make a run for it. Just saying!


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## raymo

*Thank you for paying your taxes.*



Joedills said:


> Found Some


Thank you for paying your taxes, I'm sure it went to the pay checks of alot of very fine people to keep America great and allow us all our freedoms. They all thank you. Some of my pay check might of even went to you at sometime in your life, if it did, I thank you too.


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## DidNotWinLottery

Hard to say. I would assume lots of cancellations, and permits available randomly as we get closer. For the Salmon I expect Yellowstone will be closed, thats easy so we wont be able to add the onto our trip. But given the levels over reaction, and given how much our Government likes to close things, yes, we could be in trouble. Things are falling apart around here quite a bit, and frankly I may be worried about leaving home depending on what happens. Being on the river is great, but if you come back to a home burned down....


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## noahfecks

Lots of sour grapes


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## theusualsuspect

47 people dead in the US of coronavirus and viral season coming to an end in a few weeks. Please cx your permits. I'm ready to pick them up...


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## Willie 1.5

Generally speaking authorities want you home so you can support yourself and are not a burden to the overall system. 

Even if closures took place while you are on the river, I would bet, with proof of residence you are allowed to return home.

My 0.02


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## GeoRon

I think, it can be easily said that COVID19 thoughts/considerations are likely to get worse before they gets better.

I think, in general that if you have a near future launch then two simple strategies should be front and center.

1. Make sure to include in your *team* planning by mutual agreement not to get excess unnecessary exposure before leaving. You especially don't want a team member contaminating your team or to get symptomatically(mortally) ill while on the river. (Hey, this guys sick. Let's leave him? (Monty Python "Leave your infected......" instead of "Bring out your dead.....")) Perhaps agree to shop off hours? Agree to exclude unnecessary social engagements. Etc.

2. In transit minimize your team exposure to local factors and likewise not expose locals to your teams potential foreign factors, that is, social distancing while on the road. That might include being selective about where you eat(drive through?), sleep(camp?), etc. Perhaps especially wear disposable gloves when topping off your gas tanks(imagine how many people a day fondle a pay at the pump ATM or pump handle or Quicky Mart entry door.). 

So much to consider. Just saying, perhaps much must be considered when travel boating during a "national emergency-pandemic declaration".

Hey, I didn't get any permits so it is easy to advise.


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## quinoa

I can see the Government shutting down Natl. parks sooner than later. You know what that means. 
As far as the BLM goes who knows.


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## mania

quinoa said:


> I can see the Government shutting down Natl. parks sooner than later. You know what that means.
> As far as the BLM goes who knows.


Honestly at this point we should consider all plans we have as tentative. CO ski resorts just closed by executive order. We could certainly seek parks closed, more restrictions on travel, etc.


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## wshutt

Looking at what is happening in other countries and knowing we are just on started on the curve I am seriously worried about our late May GC. Lock down is becoming more likely every day.


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## Andy H.

mania said:


> Honestly at this point we should consider all plans we have as tentative. CO ski resorts just closed by executive order. We could certainly seek parks closed, more restrictions on travel, etc.


Agreed, Dana. 

It's worth pointing out that before the Governor's executive order, Vail Resorts (EPIC Pass) had already made the decision to take a multi-million dollar loss and close all of their resorts throughout the Western US, if not the country, during the height of the season. Not certain but I think the Alterra resorts (IKON Pass) may have announced doing this before the order too. So now think of all the skiers from the VRI and Alterra resorts funneling down into the lift lines for the double chairs at Monarch, Sunlight, Wolf Creek, and the handful of other areas staying open. The hour long+ lift lines made up of folks from all over the world would be perfect places to spread the virus.

Here's a long, but very sobering read on why we need to avoid close contact with friends and strangers alike, starting RIGHT NOW. Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now This has got lots of charts and graphs and can be overwhelming. If nothing else, I’ll take the lesson from the Spanish Flu of 1918 in Chart 19 comparing Philadelphia, which did not act quickly to limit social interactions, with St. Louis, which did clamp down on social interactions. The data from Denver are also pretty telling and show a correlating between social distancing and declining death rates. 

Another article, Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially and how to “flatten the curve” has some cool computer simulations showing what happens when there’s unrestricted interaction and how a virus spreads, vs. what happens when there’s moderate, and severe social distancing. 

The implications of exponential viral spread are that if it's exponential with a doubling time of 3-6 days, we'll swamp our healthcare system if the infection rate isn't slowed. The social distancing thing (basically self-quarantine) is what could make a huge difference in how the virus spreads, and whether or not there will be enough hospital beds for the infected people who need to go to hospital (15% of infections) or the ICU (5% of infections) where they'll need ventilators. Our collective actions, as society, over the next month will determine whether we see healthcare infrastructure overload, with overworked ICU doctors deciding who gets put a ventilator and lives, and who doesn’t and gets their gurney rolled out into the hallway to die. 

So even if the gubbermint doesn't take the lead and shut down the rivers, maybe we should take that action ourselves. I just did this and it was a real bummer to send the group email pulling the plug. But it was the right thing to do because a bunch of people coming from all over and spending a couple of days, or a week, in close proximity and then going back to their respective towns is a very efficient way to spread a virus. Especially a virus that makes us infectious a week before we show symptoms. My sister works in a microbiology lab at Stanford and confirms this is NOT “just the flu” and coronavirus is the real deal, comparable to the Spanish flu of 1918 (which killed between 20 and 50 million people), and to take this shit seriously. 

-AH


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## noahfecks

Keep feeding the hysteria, that will help


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## tetoncounty

I'm still working on a plan to launch on the Salt 3/28. Wife and I. At this point I'm planning to carry enough gas in the truck, drive the back roads, camp, be self sufficient on food. We'll have to get gas down there to get back.

Only thing that could change that would be military road blocks between Wyoming and the Salt. I'm guessing that won't happen.


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## 50119

From the 1st "hot spot" the State of Washington...........

All resturants and bars in Washington State will be closed tomorrow the 16th till....? All schools will close after tomorrow if not already shut down.

I am willing to bet most all of us either have a family member in the health care industry or know's somebody. They know the true scope and need the support and cooperation from the public to plug the holes in the dam - so to speak

All I know is that I want to continue being a tax burden to Washington (retired) and the Fed's since Medicare is just around the corner. I hope to share river trips in the future, but probably not this year.


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## 50119

Forgot to mention - you don't have to be "old" or have other complicating health issues:

Two emergency medicine doctors, in New Jersey and Washington State, are in critical condition as a result of coronavirus, reinforcing concerns that the nation’s front-line medical workers are becoming especially vulnerable to the virus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said.

A man in his 40s, an ER doctor at Evergreen Health Medical Center in Kirkland, Wash., a hospital near Seattle


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## Riverwild

Yes, but just because the patient is in their 40s doesn't mean that they don't have complicating health issues. They could be a smoker, etc, we just don't know. But I agree it's concerning to see that a 40 year old doctor has been hospitalized due to the virus.


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## GeoRon

noahfecks said:


> Keep feeding the hysteria, that will help


And the solution for some people might be to go buy more ammo. And I'm sure that open carrying will help maintains social distancing.


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## zbaird

GeoRon said:


> And the solution for some people might be to go buy more ammo. And I'm sure that open carrying will help maintains social distancing.


And some peoples reaction to another's post might be to go 100% different direction with it and try to get people fired up. WTF. People and their panic buying, flooding stores is only increasing density thus exposure. You don't think the pandemonium is a little uncalled for? 

No doubt flattening the curve is a good idea. No doubt our healthcare system is getting stressed. No doubt if you are vulnerable you should limit contact and or quarantine yourself. 

Spreading the virus on a river trip where you are outside 100% of the time (aside from the car ride) seems fairly low risk. If you follow the same protocol you would to avoid Noro, sick people on trips (who hasn't been on one?), staying healthy in general and keep from making out with your buddies in the kitchen you should be alright. I hope .gov doesn't cancel the grand trips people have been planning for a year, including the one I'm on that launches in +/- a month. 

(insert sarcastic text) If you do get knocked up by the ol' Wuhan on a trip you won't know it till you're about home. At least you got a good trip in!

Oh, and if you're gonna panic buy, it should be those 15% off Rapid Rungs!


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## Flatlandr360

*Feeling lucky*

As both a health care "provider" working with respiratory aerosols on a regular basis, AND a GC permit holder primed for a 4/20/2020 put in, I'm feeling lucky!


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## RiverRhino

*It continues...*

Canada will be closing its borders to anyone who is not a citizen or a permanent resident, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced.


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## zbaird

Flatlandr360 said:


> As both a health care "provider" working with respiratory aerosols on a regular basis, AND a GC permit holder primed for a 4/20/2020 put in, I'm feeling lucky!


Did you forget to insert your sarcastic font disclaimer? 

We launch, or hopefully launch, 4-21. Wish I could say stop by for a beer but we won't l see you. We have a very aggressive schedule, especially up top. 

As one who has to deal with a healthcare worker (house sup, so she is everywhere) coming home and re spreading ingested aerosols daily, best of luck to you with both.


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## Flatlandr360

What happened with permits during the 2018-19 shutdown?


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## quinoa

Things are moving so fast with this. Trump has just released new guidelines. The 2 leading being keeping group gatherings at 10 or less and cancelling discretionary travel. Its not whether you are worried about getting sick on the river, it's about whether you will be able to get on the river.


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## Fly By Night

I have a salt trip in early April, I have concerns about weather or not I’ll make it on the water.

My biggest concerns are.

A. A ban on travel across state lines. 

B. The feds shutting down all of their parks and recreation outlets whether it makes sense or not.


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## DoubleShadow

Unfortunately I think that we are going to be seeing more and more closures very fast in the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if all flights are grounded, train stations close and individual states begin to close their borders only allowing highway goods to pass. Then I think as the state of Washington closes, then Oregon, California and so on, until we will be locked down. Crazy times, we shall see.


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## MT4Runner

DoubleShadow said:


> Unfortunately I think that we are going to be seeing more and more closures very fast in the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if all flights are grounded, train stations close and individual states begin to close their borders only allowing highway goods to pass. Then I think as the state of Washington closes, then Oregon, California and so on, until we will be locked down. Crazy times, we shall see.


Unfortunately true.

But if we don't, it could get far worse and faster.


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## Andy H.

MT4Runner said:


> Unfortunately true.
> 
> But if we don't, it could get far worse and faster.


And that "get far worse and faster" alternative will make pulling the plug on your trip look like nothing.


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## GeoRon

How do I activate the sarcastic response font? Don't need it now but unforgivably, I do all to often.

I did some mental calculations wondering what percentage of households preparing for a week or two or three of potential "lock down" / "shelter in place" would it take to clear off store shelves. Probably not that high a percent. Let's say, if 20% did it every other day allowing for some store restocking then in a week or so we might as a society be better prepared to respond to similar pandemics. Hence, I consider panic buying simply a forgivable and predictable response to large scale preparation for potentially worsening epidemiological concerns. (I have not done a panic buy, yet!)

If everything turns out rosy, perhaps due to some favorable level of "hysteria", then just consider it excellent and necessary practice. Virus's and other little creatures don't have it out for man but they do "evolve"/"optimize" for replication(pandemic). The next time might be worse. 

Almost the worse outcome is for early-on pro-claimers of "hysteria" to be correct because they tend to be the first to say "I told you so" and the loudest denier of inconvenient truths during future national emergencies/pandemics or, can we include, perhaps our greatest emergency, climate change.

What I really, really worry about most though, are the yellow-jackets. I'm worried that our beaches will not be inhabitable considering current trends. What if the commies develop a better YJ trap. What, what, if the commies are the cause of the YJ invasion. We must not have a YJ-trap!, gap! (where is that sarcasm font when you need it! Be patient, enlightenment is at the end of this link.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y)


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## MT4Runner

Andy H. said:


> And that "get far worse and faster" alternative will make pulling the plug on your trip look like nothing.



Yup.

I pooh-pooed it last week.


Spoke to a couple of doctor friends this weekend, and they're terrified. I'm inclined to listen to them.


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## GeoRon

What is most terrifying at this time is relapse, and worse, re-exposure illnesses. 

In Japan there are cases of "recovered" people getting sick weeks later. How long might this bug be latent; weeks, months or years? Or worse yet, potentially no post exposure immunity hence potentially no near future treatment or vaccine.

Take this bug seriously, until further notice.


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## mania

Tom Martin reports...



> Hi All, The Hualapai Tribe has closed access to the Diamond Creek Road this afternoon, March 16, 2020, due to COVID 19 concerns. Trips on the water will not be able to take-out at Diamond and there are no launches allowed at Diamond Creek. Anyone doing rim-control with contact to trips on the water via In-Reach should let their trips know, and those trips should let other trips around them know. River trips will have no choice but to proceed to Pearce Ferry.


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## zbaird

I heard about diamond creek earlier today from my PH. I wonder if the huali's are going to refund the trips +/- $1500 they paid for access? It is interesting that they would close that access. There is little to zero exposure for them there. Trip pulls up, de rigs, loads their shit and drives straight out of there. Hauli ranger already knows if someone is permitted. They sit at the table in the shade and watch. There is no stopping at a Huali bar for cocktails or ice cream involved.





Flatlandr360 said:


> What happened with permits during the 2018-19 shutdown?


People showed up to Lees ferry and got denied access in I think 2018. Some sat in the marble canyon parking lot for days hoping they would be allowed to launch. No dice. I think they let them choose a launch date for the following year. Several trips got screwed. All the time planning, prep and money lost, not to mention the lost wages and let down which is about the worst of it. 

It'll be interesting to see what happens with travel bans etc. I am definitely starting to get worried about our mid/late april launches. With any luck .gov will lock us down sooner than later and it will be lifted in a month, just when we need it. I definitely feel for any trips launching between this Wed and summer. The GC is a hard trip to plan for tentatively, especially if you are doing it all yourself and not a turn key painless deal. In our case we are physically planning for the best (opposite of normal), hoping for the best, but trying to mentally prepare for the worst. Its not a great place to be but what else can we do beside roll with the punches..............Or, WOLVERINES!!!!!!!


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## Andy H.

GeoRon said:


> What is most terrifying at this time is relapse, and worse, re-exposure illnesses.
> 
> In Japan there are cases of "recovered" people getting sick weeks later. How long might this bug be latent; weeks, months or years? Or worse yet, potentially no post exposure immunity hence potentially no near future treatment or vaccine.
> 
> Take this bug seriously, until further notice.


Ron,

Could you please give us a source for this news? I've been following lots of stuff and this is the first I've heard of it.

*Everyone - if you've come across something that wasn't known previously and has significant ramifications, please post your source with it as well.* There's enough pseudoscience and junk floating around on the interwebs that we need to be careful to avoid spreading BS.

Thanks,

-AH


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## zbaird

Oh Andy, don't be silly and worry about credible source confirmation. Chicken Little Media rules the roost!


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## griz

Fuck permits, I need some toilet paper! For reals, I’m on a damn Amazon waitlist...for TP.

I was in a gun shop today to pick up a new “Fuck you, Beto” rifle and the volume of gun sales is so high right now the background checks that normally take minutes is out to 3 days, at least. Ammo shelves are near empty. Folks are gearing up!


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## GeoRon

Here was my source for relapse?/reinfection? Subsequent to that source of info it has become debatable according to what I am reading today. 

My apologies if this info is not completely up to date. No intent to deceive was intended. I will endeavor to find the current status.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japanese-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-for-second-time


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## GeoRon

This link to Snopes seems to focus specifically on the relapse/reinfection issue. Normally Snopes has a true or false determination but not in this case. The conclusion is:
*Unproven
This rating indicates that insufficient evidence exists to establish the given claim as true, but the claim cannot be definitively proved false. This rating typically involves claims for which there is little or no affirmative evidence, but for which declaring them to be false would require the difficult (if not impossible) task of our being able to prove a negative or accurately discern someone else’s thoughts and motivations.*


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-reinfection/

Other links.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/03/06/Experts-unsure-if-cured-COVID-19-patients-are-reinfected-or-relapsed/8101583529793/

2 HOURS OLD AT THIS TIME:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection-get-covid-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html


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## David L

I certainly hope you and all the rest of the permit holders have no wrinkles to your plans!





Flatlandr360 said:


> As both a health care "provider" working with respiratory aerosols on a regular basis, AND a GC permit holder primed for a 4/20/2020 put in, I'm feeling lucky!


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## GeoRon

zbaird said:


> Oh Andy, don't be silly and worry about credible source confirmation. Chicken Little Media rules the roost!


Howdy Zach, Please let me know where to get the "credible" information that you use. I may be too restricted in my sources.


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## raymo

*5600+ background checks.*



griz said:


> Fuck permits, I need some toilet paper! For reals, I’m on a damn Amazon waitlist...for TP.
> 
> I was in a gun shop today to pick up a new “Fuck you, Beto” rifle and the volume of gun sales is so high right now the background checks that normally take minutes is out to 3 days to wait, at least. Ammo shelves are near empty. Folks are gearing up!


That is nuts, there are 5600+ backlog of background checks for individuals that are waiting to pick up their firearms in Colorado, about 2 to 3 days to wait and it's rising. Sportsman's Warehouse in Thornton is out of ammo, I like to browse around there store to kill time. Good news I acquired a couple packs of toilet paper at Kingsooper's on my way back home. Not so lucky on the Depends though, but that's ok, there's no place open anyways.:roll::roll::roll:


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## griz

Raymo, Yeah, while I was waiting a guy showed me a pic of Bass Pro’s shelves. A few random boxes but empty. I put in a $1k ammo order online just under the wire last week so I’m done anyway. A box of CCI standard 22LR /100 rounds on the same site is now $42 from $8 so the gouging has already started,too. I could overhear the guy answering the phone at the shop and he was “YEp, we got 9mm guns,sure, no ammo for them though.”

I found two packs of picnic napkins so I got that going for me. If that fails, I’m open to some good paperback book suggestions to get at Barnes and Noble and tear up after reading them.


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## raymo

Good for you. My one daughter works for a firearms dealer at the Tanner Gun Show to make a few extra dollars on the weekends. So she has been picking up 9mm and 357 ammo for me, over the last year or so. All three of my daughters have their Conceal Carry Permits for Colorado, I know their tomboys, they all like to shoot. I've heard news pepper's work for the job at hand. I hope this virus thing doesn't spoil river rafting for everyone here, that would really suck big time.


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## MT4Runner

griz said:


> I put in a $1k ammo order online just under the wire last week so I’m done anyway. A box of CCI standard 22LR /100 rounds on the same site is now $42 from $8 so the gouging has already started,too. ”


CTD? They're notorious for gouging. $899 for 1000 rounds of .223? Who wants to pay $0.89 a round for .223 or anything small?!?!

Looks like I will have more time to reload all the components gathering dust the past 8-10 years. Too bad I lost all my guns in a tragic canoeing accident, it forced me to give up canoeing and buy a raft.


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## jspoon14

I have a WW permit for 4/4 and just called the BLM office in Utah to check on the status, sounds like they are going to limit the trip number to 10 people or less at best. They told be to call back in a few minutes and they would know more.

Stay tuned!


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## griz

Mt4runner, yeah,CTD. I rarely buy ammo online but was away from home and knew this was coming so dumped some cash online. At the time, the prices were fair but I won’t support gougers now that I know they do it. AFTER my ammo arrives, I’m dropping them a email, for sure.

Yeah, it’s sad when they all get lost like that. Seems to be happening more and more, too.


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## codycleve

my question is how many people will have to cancel their permits due to lack of vacation time or funds. Schools are shutting down and people have to take time off or vacation time to take care of kids. Businesses are shutting down and layoffs are coming.


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## zbaird

GeoRon said:


> Howdy Zach, Please let me know where to get the "credible" information that you use. I may be too restricted in my sources.


Pretty sure there isn't much out there. Everyone is shooting from the hip. Any number you hear is skewed, not all on purpose its just no one actually knows. Anyone can build a best guess model, which is whats out. Thats why I said stick to chicken little news.


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## noahfecks

I have been in close contact with several confirmed cases over the last week and I am still more scared of this


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## Andy H.

zbaird said:


> Pretty sure there isn't much out there. Everyone is shooting from the hip. Any number you hear is skewed, not all on purpose its just no one actually knows. Anyone can build a best guess model, which is whats out. Thats why I said stick to chicken little news.


Here's where I've been getting my news on the topic. If you're going to deal with best guess models, find folks that know the subject well and that'll at least make better guesses than some politician or news channel programming manager.

Nature Magazine

Science Magazine

-AH


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## theusualsuspect

No one knows anything. The only thing that is for sure is the numerator (deaths) is somewhat know., but the denominator is completely unknown (infections). No one will know for a year or two until CDC comes out with final estimates. The death rate will probably be sub 1% (my opinion). as of today according to Johns Hopkins we are sitting at 1.6% down from 2.4% last week. It’s as if the denominator is growing faster than the numerator. Shocking. 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


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## Waterhopper

Unlike NASCAR, it appears that all the turns on this thread are to the right.


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## GeoRon

theusualsuspect said:


> Shocking.
> 
> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


That is quite a scoreboard. Leave it to ESRI to effectively digest and display geographic data.

Nit picking, I'd put the red confirmed cases adjacent to the other two scrolling country columns. As is, I find my eyes having to shift back and forth to much. The graph on the lower right should graph by country as you click on a new country on the left(red) scrolling country column(menu).


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## caverdan

Here is a fun read.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpu...hink-mild-justify-aggressive-countermeasures/


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## GeoRon

caverdan said:


> Here is a fun read.
> https://hotair.com/archives/allahpu...hink-mild-justify-aggressive-countermeasures/


Yes, "fun" read broadly examining the current status of unknowns.

If we can "flatten" the curves ASAP then we should consider COVID19 stress testing of the systems, economics and politics a learning experience for the future "bad" bugs.

The worse that can come out of this is the "not so bad, I told you so" response typical of segments of our society.

What we can expect to come out of hopeful rapid flattening is for a particular top level official to say "I've been on top of this since day one and I alone saved the world.". Oh, he is already doing that I was told.

This video is as good an explanation of the facts that I've been turned onto. I do admit, government responses have improved since finally a scientist seems to be in charge substantially reducing d'f'ery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4


----------



## Andy H.

caverdan said:


> Here is a fun read.
> https://hotair.com/archives/allahpu...hink-mild-justify-aggressive-countermeasures/


Thanks for the link, Dan. Yes, the fatality rate denominator is unknown due to underreporting of mild cases and the lack of test kits at this time. There are some folks saying that there may be 50 times as many cases as are bing reported. I started a thread on the virus over in the Eddy a few days ago, and that was one of the first things I mentioned. 

Here's a more scholarly article than the one from Hot Air saying that the mortality rate may be overestimated (let's hope they're correct!): https://www.physiciansweekly.com/data-suggests-virus-infections/

This all doesn't mean "it's just the flu" however. Here's some pretty scary stuff that's come out of a modeling group in the UK that was reported in the Washington Post today. Journal Article with Modeling that says laying low is the way to go,or we could see over two million deaths in the US under a "do nothing" scenario (NOTE: *we're already doing something* so that should be an overestimate). They've got some good graphs on flattening the curve. They're also predicting US death rates to peak about June 1.

Washington Post Summary:


> Research from Imperial College London, endorsed by the U.K. government, suggests that 2.2 million would die in the United States and 510,000 would die in Britain if nothing is done by governments and individuals to stop the pandemic. The new forecasts, by Neil Ferguson and his colleagues, show that more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States. The new report concludes that the British government might be able to keep the number of dead below 20,000 by enforcing social distancing for the entire population, isolating all cases, demanding quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick and closing all schools and universities — for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available. The modelers did not give numbers for the United States for these most intense suppression efforts.
> 
> Seeing these numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease inspired Prime Minister Boris Johnson to take a much more severe approach to suppress the spread. “The report is also influencing planning by the Trump administration,” William Booth reports. “Deborah Birx, who serves as the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, cited the British analysis at a news conference Monday, saying her response team was especially focused on the report’s conclusion that an entire household should self-quarantine for 14 days if one of its members is stricken by the virus.”


I'm not sure if they calculated mortality rates for the case of ERs and ICUs being overwhelmed to the point of triage, however. One estimate I've seen is that if that happens (the "gurneys in the hallways" scenario, under which there aren't enough beds and ventilators for severe cases) the death rate may hit 3%-5%. (Medium Pueyo Article, "Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%"). It's worth noting that our healthcare system is already running at the edge of it's capacity with medical staff routinely doing 12- & 24-hour shifts. 

-AH


----------



## Andy H.

And there's this that I just saw, no idea of authenticity but it seems right to me:


----------



## GeoRon

Thanks Andy,

Margaret Mead never likely considered what the last sign of civilization in culture might be or that it might be when some members are concerned during a time of societal stress that there is a shortage of guns and ammo. Just saying. (It's a joke.)


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## TboneCooper

*Well...*

I can give a kind of first hand report here from Portland. I'm in my mid 30's and have two housemates. One of them started being symptomatic about a week and a half ago. He developed a serious fever, had difficulty breathing, a dry cough and had diarrhea. Called Kiasier and because of his symptoms they instructed him to go to the ER. He then called am ambulance and when they came I heard the EMT say, "You're not in need of the ICU, you're young and if you have it you will probably be fine. If you don't have it you will get it at the hospital and it is already overcrowded." They didn't have a test to give him. 



He's recovered-ish and is okay now. We are doing the self isolation thing, and I'm not feeling sick. Although I don't think I'll be going on a planned trip in a few weeks  I also have known personally several other friends that have had 104+ fevers and we not able to get tested and were told to quarantine themselves. I know it's not super relevant to the thread about trips being cancelled, but I would hate to imagine being on a multiday trip and several people starting to become symptomatic. Our resources are going to be stretched pretty thin as it is and I doubt there would be much official help if folks got sick on the river.


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## GeoRon

Thanks for the first hand account. More of that would be helpful.

From first hand experience you really don't want to be sick on the river or when away from home. 

I came down with relapsing tick bite fever on a MF-Main Salmon trip days before taking off. Delirium, hallucinations, drenching wet sleeping bag and puddles of sweat in my tent around me. No fun.

Norwalk hit me on the way home from a Grand Trip. Begging your travel partners to get a motel mid-day because you don't know when or from which end you are about to explode is bad. So is spraying a windshield or jumping out next to the interstate and desperately ASAP dropping your drawers.

Being a geologic data consultant/field geologist I can attest to being sick in a motel from food poisoning in Red Lake Ontario to Pneumonia in Delta Junction Alaska to a bad flu in Calexico Califorinia. Horrible. It can also be very expensive since in good conscience you can't bill for motels for days not worked. (Fortunately, I've had forgiving clients who asked me to add those motel costs to the invoice.)

On a friends Grand trip last summer they had to evacuate a Colorado kayaking legend when an unknown tumor ruptured. Helicopter evac ain't cheap.

Also consider if your medical insurance covers out of state ER or hospital expenses. I had to pay extra for Medicare to cover out of state medical expenses.

Anyway, being sick away from home sucks.


----------



## MT4Runner

TboneCooper said:


> I can give a kind of first hand report here from Portland. I'm in my mid 30's and have two housemates. One of them started being symptomatic about a week and a half ago. He developed a serious fever, had difficulty breathing, a dry cough and had diarrhea. Called Kiasier and because of his symptoms they instructed him to go to the ER. He then called am ambulance and when they came I heard the EMT say, "You're not in need of the ICU, you're young and if you have it you will probably be fine. If you don't have it you will get it at the hospital and it is already overcrowded." They didn't have a test to give him.
> 
> He's recovered-ish and is okay now. We are doing the self isolation thing, and I'm not feeling sick. Although I don't think I'll be going on a planned trip in a few weeks  I also have known personally several other friends that have had 104+ fevers and we not able to get tested and were told to quarantine themselves. I know it's not super relevant to the thread about trips being cancelled, but I would hate to imagine being on a multiday trip and several people starting to become symptomatic. Our resources are going to be stretched pretty thin as it is and I doubt there would be much official help if folks got sick on the river.


I'm not so sure that your housemate might have had the "regular" flu?

From what I've read, diarrhea is not a symptom of covid-19?

Glad he's ok-ish and you are not symptomatic.


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## Nubie Jon

From a medical stand point 72 hours after the fever breaks you "should" be fine.... So Isolate 7-10 day as long as the fever is gone for 72 hours. We haven't seen many reinfections, but there are a ton of co-diagnosis out there. The most common being Flu and pneumonia. 

On another point .... I heard to day on the "local news" that at least the NPS in Colorado will remain open. They may close museums and visitor Centers but Rangers will be out to make sure your having a good time. No grps larger than 10...... so there's that.


----------



## jkaylen

*Salt River Access-Tribe no longer issuing permits?*

As part of a longer post on Front Range Kayakers (Facebook), someone just posted the below. Has anyone else heard this? Know the possibility of an SUV getting down that 4WD road and would shuttle companies shuttle that? The Ranger, Don, is out of office till (or through) Friday.



> -Apache Tribe no longer issuing permits for The Salt. My understanding is permitted trips can still put on at Gleason. Road is VERY 4WD ONLY and takes about an hour to get to from the highway.


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## Nubie Jon

https://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f42/salt-shut-down-103015.html#post764285

Try this thread.


----------



## Unca Walt

On the Salt, sorry to report that WMAT just stopped selling permits as of 3/18 and we have no beta on the length of closure (one crew was prevented from launching and had to return home). Reccomend you call the White Mtn Apache Recreational office in Whiteriver or call Don Sullivan, USFS Salt River Ranger in the Globe AZ office before travelling to AZ!


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## RangerDave

*River access this year is like cell service....iffy!*



Deadlock281 said:


> Hey guys, so I work at a ski resort in Colorado and currently our administration is reacting to any potential Corona issues by canceling a lot of events and closing things down.
> 
> Does anyone have any information or rumors on whether or not permits will be affected? As far as allowing people to access the rivers?


There is no great reply for this message. Answers cover the spectrum. It may surprise some, but there isn't a lot of clarity from the highest federal leadership levels currently outside of David Bernhardt, Interior Secretary wanting national parks open, and many parks not sure they want to be open for employee and public health reasons. Looking around you will notice most COVID 19 rules and regs for the greater good affecting your lives are from your town, county or state. Anyone hear of the forest service shutting down a ski resort? You didn't. It didn't happen. Your leadership is not federally coordinated much from the national level. Keep in mind, this is the first season you don't even have BLM leadership in Washington!

So, river access, it runs the gauntlet of the local units. There is a great deal of groping in the dark with best available science and doctrine overlayed with nearest and latest infection cases and death reports. I'm of the school that open boat ramps allow those going nuts with small homes full of telework stress and screaming kids banished from school & daycare need to social distance on trails, rivers, undeveloped recreation sites, etc. I am plowing a boat ramp or two to expedite having a place for folks to go earlier than usual. 

That said, I don't have anyone to clean toilets while I try to head out for an isolated outdoor spring break with my kid. I'll leave them open and stocked. If anyone really fouls them where fecal matter, urine, excessive garbage and/or birth control & such are something to deal with upon return, I'm pulling gates shut and locking doors until when they are actually schedule for opening in a month minimum. If your body pathogens become my problem and risk my family safety for being a nice guy, agencies more than encourage and support doing nothing to risk any exposure whatsoever.

There is the other side of the spectrum that we should absolutely do nothing to encourage folks out of their seclusion spots where they might meet others for happy times and physical contact. A kind of "leading them over the deadly cliff" scenario. You will more than likely find that out there too. Many in meetings think their next promotion will come from suggesting shutting entire forests or other land masses down. This is a reality.

Bottom line, lots of this stuff is up to you as boaters and recreators. Your behavior is everything. I will generally have an idiot or two that will chain up all four tires and tear the crap out of a road or ramp trying to get a boat on or off early season. We don't plow ramps, and when this happens it is really expensive to repair the damage for others to use the facility when boaters come during actual boating season. I will limit services at least enough to buy a new gate and what has to be spent to repair the facility.

It doesn't hurt to be proactive and offer help to get normal services going. Nothing new or excessive, but enough to get stuff up and running. Many will not have people or money possibly to do trash and open restrooms. Ya gonna take up a collection or got a tank and powerwasher you could come by once a week with? Maybe a couple buddies who will grab a bag of trash and put a new bag in? Not saying you have to do this. Just saying you have to be willing to overcome objections if you are dealing with a river office that isn't open to opening. Guess what? Many managers aren't sure if they can bring on the people they promised jobs to do all the river facility work during interviews last winter. All that is still being "figured out" at higher levels. Obviously, I work rivers with day runs, not long overnighter permitted runs.

Granted there is a lot of things to bitch and complain about here folks. Bottom line is we just want to be on the water. Not all river rangers and managers are non-recovering river addicts. Not all river users behave well. This is the toughest river season to prepare for I've ever seen in the decades I've worked, and still don't know what hiccups are gonna jump out next week, month and by July 4th. All I can say is have patience with those who truly are "trying." Folks are looking out for your safety and continued life force as best they can. Getting nasty on a phone call or using other media isn't helping the entire river using brother/sisterhood. This will only have a chance of going well with folks communicating politely, trying to find solutions that might involve doing more than ever conceived on your side, and maybe throwing some love to the organizations that have always represented your interests to the agencies you may have never felt like you needed to keep alive as they are very effective & will be struggling.

Good luck! 8)


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## B4otter

RangerDave - thank you! We're all in this together, and the lowest common denominator is what will lead to closures and restrictions... you clearly have too much common sense to consider running for public office, but that's where we need more of your ilk!


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## sarahkonamojo

Ranger Dave, thanks for your "front line" response.


I don't live anywhere near Jackson, but I'd be willing to help locally.


Perhaps this community can act like one and be helping rather than complaining, blaming, or ignoring. All agencies will be short handed and could use some help. Cleanup and stocking should be easy for anyone to do without personal contact.


Be understanding, as Ranger Dave said, "It may surprise some, but there isn't a lot of clarity from the highest federal leadership levels..." Actions taken will be local and done in the best interest of their employees and their community, not our river community.


Use your head. Do you want to be on a trip with a possible medi-vac? Do you want to get sick or bring it home with you? All/most of the people that have become sick did not intend to do so. Don't spread rumors but believe the data. No fucking joke what is happening in Italy/Spain right now. Don't minimize the suffering of others.


Wash your hands. Wash your hands. Use all of those kitchen/groover skills we have developed to stop the spread.


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## Coznells

Deadlock281 said:


> Hey guys, so I work at a ski resort in Colorado and currently our administration is reacting to any potential Corona issues by canceling a lot of events and closing things down.
> 
> Does anyone have any information or rumors on whether or not permits will be affected? As far as allowing people to access the rivers?


.

Hey guys, I can also say that the White Mountain Apache Tribe is not giving away any more permits this year. It’s over. If you have a Salt permit and have not gotten Apache permits yet (which you probably haven’t as most buy at first camp) you likely can’t go. So sad! So much water there!


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## MT4Runner

Thank you Ranger Dave.



RangerDave said:


> It doesn't hurt to be proactive and offer help to get normal services going. Nothing new or excessive, but enough to get stuff up and running. Many will not have people or money possibly to do trash and open restrooms. Ya gonna take up a collection or got a tank and powerwasher you could come by once a week with? Maybe a couple buddies who will grab a bag of trash and put a new bag in? Not saying you have to do this. Just saying you have to be willing to overcome objections if you are dealing with a river office that isn't open to opening. Guess what? Many managers aren't sure if they can bring on the people they promised jobs to do all the river facility work during interviews last winter.



Challenge accepted.


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## okieboater

https://wmatoutdoor.org/

I just checked WMAT home page and they have a post (as of 20 March 2020) no more permits for outdoor
recreation. Might be good for Salt permit holders to keep checking this link if they want to use the WMAT facilities.


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## MT4Runner

okieboater said:


> https://wmatoutdoor.org/
> 
> I just checked WMAT home page and they have a post (as of 20 March 2020) no more permits for outdoor
> recreation. Might be good for Salt permit holders to keep checking this link if they want to use the WMAT facilities.


sounds likely the Salt season is done if you haven't already bought your Apache permit.


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## alisonmw

I'm sure this has all been said as I haven't read all 9 pages of responses, but the bottom line is that the communities that support river runners at the put-ins and take-outs don't want people coming in. Utah has closed public land to recreating in 3 large counties and I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't expand. I'm bummed about this as we were planning to head deep into the desert for spring break and be self-sufficient, but what if our car breaks down and needs services? what if we get injured and need medical care? etc. Just by being in the area jeopardizes the people that live there. I have a friend that lives in Moab who is imploring people not to come recreate there right now. Health services are limited there and if they ended up caring for people who ended up sick while on vacation and didn't have space for their own, that would be pretty selfish of us. I'm a nurse and am worried about my exposure and thus that of my family and while it sucks that we can't escape to the places that make us happy and feel free, we're in this for the common good, and will actually be able to get back to those places sooner if we stay away now. One thing I remind my kids who are in their early 20s and don't want this inconvenience when they want to be out skiing, climbing, etc. is that their grandparents were being asked to go to war when they were my kids age, and all my kids are being asked is to stay home. I think we can all do that. Attached is the Utah Health Dept policy mentioned above. Section 3 discusses use of public land.


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## alisonmw

https://moabcity.org/DocumentCenter/View/2783/SEUHD-Restrictions-Order-03172020-FINAL


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## villagelightsmith

Returning from Alaska one year, running studs on all 4 corners of the van, we encountered hundreds of miles of glare ice. Public employees were mad at each other and on strike, so there were no plows or sand trucks out. We called the RC Mounted Police to see if the pass was open. They said "There's nobody there to close the gate, so I guess it is!" "What you're saying is, we're on our own!" '"That's about right!" 
A trucker told us "Don't worry about it; we've been keeping the pass BLOWN open!" 
And so, we filled our tanks and pulled out onto the highway with a refreshing sense of Freedom, and I'm still grateful for it these many years later. It was like being on a river with no permits, uniforms, clipboards or "Bear hats" in the world. Ma-aa-an, that was a good trip! Freedom! (Miss you, George! J.)

Alisonmw, I understand. That's why my own trips are designed to be as silent and invisible as possible, leaving no wake in our passing unless we need to spend some money. Sometimes we see people forget they are passing through other people's backyard. Many people have yet to learn to "put a lid on themselves." Especially when people hear "Whee!" or "OMG!" shouted every 30 seconds, every morning, and all mid-day 
every weekend for the entire summer. Some people live out there to get away from pandemonium, and we don't need to bring it with us.


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## Nubie Jon

Not to worry, I have a permit!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq6nBigMnlg&feature=youtu.be


----------



## GeoRon

Permits? Permits! We don't need no stinking permits!

Don Sullivan, the Salt's black hatted villain just sent out notice that all Salt permits are rescinded. His parting remark is:

"For my part social isolation comes easy (now) because nobody likes me."

Maybe this scene had to do with badges.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqomZQMZQCQ


----------



## Junk Show Tours

Grand Canyon, AZ- Grand Canyon National Park is announcing modifications to operations to implement the latest guidance from the White House, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), and local and state authorities to promote public safety. As of, March 24, 2020, Grand Canyon river rafting trips including administrative, research, private and commercial trips, are suspended until May 21, 2020. Resumption of river trips will be evaluated in mid-April pending current CDC guidance and options to reschedule trips will be provided at a future date.


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## quinoa

It has happened!


----------



## pootypeters

Haha! Don Sullivan is a good guy


----------



## RangerDave

Forget I said anything. 
Dinosaur News Release Release Date: March 20, 2020 Contact: Dan Johnson, Public Information Officer, [email protected], (435) 781-7700 Dinosaur National Monument is Modifying River Operations to Implement Latest Health Guidance Dinosaur, CO & Jensen, UT – Dinosaur National Monument is announcing modifications to operations to implement the latest guidance from the White House, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), and local and state authorities to promote public safety. As of Noon, Monday, March 23, 2020, all river trips/operations in Dinosaur National Monument are canceled until further notice. Options to reschedule trips will be provided at a future date. This change is consistent with other river operation suspensions regionwide, within National Park Service units located within Department of Interior Regions 6, 7, and 8, including Big Bend National Park & Rio Grande Wild & Scenic River (TX), Canyonlands National Park (UT), Dinosaur National Monument (CO/UT), Glen Canyon National Recreation Area (AZ/UT), and Grand Canyon National Park (AZ). The Quarry Visitor Center and Exhibit Hall remain closed until further notice. Staff are exploring other ways to provide virtual access programming to the monument during this closure. The health and safety of our visitors, employees, volunteers, and partners at Dinosaur National Monument is our number one priority. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the federal, state, and local authorities to closely monitor the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. We will notify the public when we resume full operations and provide updates on our website and social media channels. The NPS urges visitors to do their part when visiting a park and to follow CDC guidance to prevent the spread of infectious diseases by maintaining a safe distance between yourself and other groups; washing your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoiding touching your eyes, Dinosaur National Monument 4545 HWY 40 Dinosaur, CO 81610 (970)-374-3000 phone [www.nps.gov](https://l.facebook.com...3DP6FbKCFX-YBxJUWOjEhYjO0zH4UJ3RyR0Zu041qLqyk) National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior EXPERIENCE YOUR AMERICA ™️ The National Park Service cares for special places saved by the American people so that all may experience our heritage. nose, and mouth; covering your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze; and most importantly, staying home if you feel sick. For high-risk populations, such as the elderly and people with underlying conditions, we ask that they take extra caution and follow CDC guidance for those at higher risk of serious illness. Updates about NPS operations will be posted on [www.nps.gov/coronavirus](https://ww...6G5ncxylBQWal9RPEQb519SjvUL4htG1YenyFkCpMTFPE). For specific details about monument operations, please call (435) 781-7700 or email us at [email protected]. You can also follow dinosaurnps on social media such as Facebook, Instagram or Twitter.


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## 50119

No need to forget anything you said.....things are changing faster than......?????

I appreciate all the River Rangers do for the public out of view of the majority of recreational users. For example last year in mid June, Dalton (I think that was his name) was a one man band at the put in on the Middle Fork at Boundary. Talk about multi tasking and keeping his cool and a great attitude.

Welcome out of a 5 year BUZZ hibernation with your 1st post yesterday. 





RangerDave said:


> Forget I said anything.
> Dinosaur News Release Release Date: March 20, 2020 Contact: Dan Johnson, Public Information Officer, [email protected], (435) 781-7700 Dinosaur National Monument is Modifying River Operations to Implement Latest Health Guidance Dinosaur, CO & Jensen, UT – Dinosaur National Monument is announcing modifications to operations to implement the latest guidance from the White House, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention


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## zbaird

Man, they really are trying to keep us packed in the cities for it to spread rampantly. So much for REAL social distancing.


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## teleski1

*stay the fuck home!*

Yes they are trying to keep you peeps in the city because during this time no one has any business what so ever to go into small communities. Social distancing explanation:--STAY THE FUCK HOME... By doing this we can kick this virus in the ass and get back to our lives as soon as possible.


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## GeoRon

zbaird said:


> Man, they really are trying to keep us packed in the cities for it to spread rampantly. So much for REAL social distancing.


Time to work on that "Lady Rung" to facilitate not having to row to the bank.


----------



## B4otter

Cat closed "through April" according to NPS Canyonlands website.


----------



## Andy H.

zbaird said:


> Man, they really are trying to keep us packed in the cities for it to spread rampantly. So much for REAL social distancing.


Zach, I understand you're really pissed about your GC trip being cancelled. The thing is that even within the urban centers, we can keep the social distancing going and make it effective. And when we're on the river, yeah, we're not spreading it to anyone. But when we're getting to and from, running shuttle with a local, getting gas, and picking up that 6-pack and bag of ice, and so on, then us city-dwellers are bringing the infection to your community and infecting more people. And the more we move around, the more we risk either contracting the virus or spreading it if we already have it. Right now in the US we've got an infection doubling rate of 3 days. How long until Salida's hospital is overwhelmed? And do you really want us bring more infections there?

Check out the simulations in this article: Exponential Growth and Flattening the Curve. I want to be in the population where most of the little dots are sitting still and only a few are bouncing around and changing colors.


----------



## caverdan

The kid really comes out......when as an adult......your put in a time out. 

STFAH :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Edited to add: Thank You Ranger Dave!!!! Your input and post's are much appreciated.


----------



## Fly By Night

RangerDave said:


> Staff are exploring other ways to provide virtual access programming to the monument during this closure.


They could run the river with go pros and post it to youtube. We could then set up a TV in the garage, put oar frames on ammo cans, hang some oars off the side and stock a cooler and have a grand 'ol time.


----------



## GeoRon

Fly By Night said:


> They could run the river with go pros and post it to youtube. We could then set up a TV in the garage, put oar frames on ammo cans, hang some oars off the side and stock a cooler and have a grand 'ol time.


Ya, instead of spinning on a bike, rowing on our frames with big screen TV out front. You can then run a 4 inch hose out to the nearest fire hydrant with a valve timed to open when you hit the V-Wave in Lava.


Actually, this is a better clip to think in the word "permit" instead of "badges". Unfortunately, it seems that now nobody has any permits. Bummer. Hear it as "Permit? Permit! We don't have no permits!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT8hE7_8BCY


----------



## pinetree

*River Closures*

We were informed yesterday that the White Mountain Apache tribe has cancelled all recreation permits, including the launch on the Salt River. We had an April 4 permit which now will not go.
Grand Canyon NP has closed the river launch intil May 21.
Anyone know if the Utah BLM is closing Deso, Westwater, or the San Juan?


----------



## pinetree

I am going to post videos from our 2017 Salt trip on IG and FB and tell everyone it was this year.


----------



## pinetree

Yeah, you probably have heard the tribe closed the Salt put-in yesterday. If not, they did!


----------



## bearclawboat

I have an April 11 launch that is obviously NOT happening now due to closure by the tribe.
Never done the Salt before, was super excited about getting this permit, finally.
Anyone every put in at Gleeson Flat or Horseshoe Bend? Are they even accessible? Tell me everything.


----------



## okieboater

Never done the gleason flat road but have camped there river left and 4 wheel trucks came by our campsite on at least two trips.

The off road guys told us the road in is pretty serious and they were in jacked up old style Dodge power wagons. Their trucks looked like the real deal as well.

Maybe some AZ off roaders can give us more info on the road condition.


----------



## zbaird

Andy H. said:


> Zach, I understand you're really pissed about your GC trip being cancelled. The thing is that even within the urban centers, we can keep the social distancing going and make it effective. And when we're on the river, yeah, we're not spreading it to anyone. But when we're getting to and from, running shuttle with a local, getting gas, and picking up that 6-pack and bag of ice, and so on, then us city-dwellers are bringing the infection to your community and infecting more people. And the more we move around, the more we risk either contracting the virus or spreading it if we already have it. Right now in the US we've got an infection doubling rate of 3 days. How long until Salida's hospital is overwhelmed? And do you really want us bring more infections there?
> 
> Check out the simulations in this article: Exponential Growth and Flattening the Curve. I want to be in the population where most of the little dots are sitting still and only a few are bouncing around and changing colors.



I wouldn't say that I'm "really pissed". Bummed for sure. Most of us were just getting started putting food and stuff together and were reluctant because we kinda saw it coming. We weren't putting coolers in the walk-in till 4/5 so only one guy (overachiever) had done his food. Who I really feel bad for, are the people launching on 3/25-4/5 range. If I was them, I'd be really pissed, as most of the risk would have been taken, all the food would be bought and everything would be paid for with much of it non refundable etc. That would be a nightmare to deal with; disappointment, money etc. Comparatively, our trip will be easy to dismantle.

Anyway, just so I understand..

-Social distancing while you shop in Denver with a 1000 people in the store is effective.

-Using the same social distancing techniques while I get gas on the road and maybe run in to pee is not, got it.:roll:

We're not talking about a day trip from Denver to the Ark here. Im not running in for a "6 pack and ice" anywhere, nor hitching shuttle so your example of me infecting the world from here to AZ is not realistic. If you think all of us on the trip wouldn't be avoiding anyone like the (real) plague on the way down so we didn't get sick (thus not getting anyone else sick) you're crazy. The last thing I'd do is risk anything unnecessarily. The big risk was going to be during the shopping in town, at Costco in Denver or the Springs next week, or most of all the produce run a couple days before. But "within the urban centers, we can keep the social distancing going and make it effective." So no biggie, right?

We had all been talking about being super paranoid about this shit leading up to it. Trust me, no one wanted to get sick on a GC trip. Trying to avoid getting sick as much as possible also means you're likely not spreading it. 



There is a very good chance Salida hospital gets overwhelmed. They have a 2 bed ICU and only a few vents. Not a good place to be if you get a serious case of anything, not just now, ever. Thats why they fly them out typically. With this deal they aren't flying you out. Critical access hospitals are keeping patients right now so they don't overwhelm other hospitals. I get why places like this don't want tourists right now coming to stay. It makes sense. 

With Beer flu you don't go from perfectly healthy, to on a vent in an hour or even a day. You get mild symptoms, and it gets worse day to day. If you hang out in some small town on vaca, during this pandemic while you get sicker and sicker wondering whats going on you are a moron and we can probably do without you anyway, just saying. If I come down with this shit and it starts getting bad, I'm not going to Salida hospital.

I understand how things spread, how contagious this is, and that it can be spread by someone who doesn't know they are sick yet. I also understand how to minimize risks of contracting and spreading through hygiene and distancing. I understand that you have bought into that this is the worst thing since the Spanish Flu and that its not blown out of proportion by the media, thats fine, and MAYBE it is. I also understand that if social distancing can be effective in Denver with a million people bustling around Costco, which you seem to think is true, I can make it to GC with out infecting anyone or being infected. If I got infected and am spreading it around the house right now, I am sure it was while I was in Denver last week, distancing at DRE and wherever else I went. We just got our first confirmed cases a couple days ago down here. Now I can hang out here waiting to get infected by the nurse that I live with. If it happens, it happens but I'm still not going to believe that crashing the economy and putting the nation into widespread panic and debt is the right thing to do over something that will likely (and I'll eat my words later if need be) has a sub 1% fatality rate. In the end, if this situation gets worse, the facility rate could possibly be higher because of the panic then the damn virus.


----------



## theusualsuspect

Amen Zach. Science will prevail. It will just take a year or two. Death rate sub 1% is almost assured. Death rate close to seasonal flu likely. Like you I keep my mouth shut and do what I’m told. Regardless of how stupid I think it is.


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## pinetree

Gleason Flat road is reported to be harsh. 20 miles in. And you have to run your own shuttle.
The White Mountain Apache recreation permit (all now cancelled) is required for boating from the highway 60 bridge down to river mile 29. Gleason Flat is mile 22.


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## okieboater

I live in a small town in Oklahoma.

I think Zach is on to something.

If I lived in NYC, LA, SFO or Seattle with a bunch of homeless already living in unclean situations or most people packed into high rise apartment buildings - I would think differently.

Here in OK and many parts of the USA, it is common to live in a single family house on a decent sized lot.

I think the President said the right thing when he said the procedures that work in NYC may or may not work in West VA or words to that effect.

I feel better when the Governor of my State makes decisions for our state (based on input from the Feds and other informed people) than some bureaucrat in Washington DC.

Not saying there is not a place for nation wide procedures for example stop incoming flights from China etc where (according to the news media) the Chinese government let their folks fly international when they were possible carriers of covid 19. For the most part, I believe the individual states and cities know their needs better than some one far away or even in their state capital. This is not to say that the federal entities cannot help just apply the federals in ways they help not get in the way of states.

At some point the USA is giving away tons of money that has to be borrowed, printed or created by a computer entry. The federales already do a great job of giving away based on their rules for tax payer money. My belief is at some time the credit our country is now living on is going to be stopped or payment called.

At this time, I do not know the best way to go with a decision that fits every one. My hope is those making decisions at the National, State and local levels make an informed decision not do what ever the national news media is putting out.

Flame away.


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## okieboater

Here is a video I found on youtube about the road into Gleason Flats. Looks like that last mile or so is a challenge for sure unless you got the real deal off road machine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIKKVp7Hocw


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## 2tomcat2

"The last thing *I'd* do is risk anything unnecessarily. "

*"I* can make it to GC with out infecting anyone or being infected."

*"I"* or *"me" *used 25 times in your post


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## zbaird

Because I can't speak for anyone else. Whats your point? That is a solid job of cherry picking tho


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## GeoRon

2tomcat2 said:


> "The last thing *I'd* do is risk anything unnecessarily. "
> 
> *"I* can make it to GC with out infecting anyone or being infected."
> 
> *"I"* or *"me" *used 25 times in your post


Are you implying blatant and thoughtless selfishness? You have a nice way of saying that. I'd just said "dumbfuckery" at it's worse.

Let's see, by my math, by anyone who knows math; 100 million infected, 1% death rate tap tap tap on calculator; that is a lot of fuck'in dead people. Appromately 1,000,000 dead people.

Here is a refresher on dumbfuckery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4


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## td

If anyone wants to see where this is going in the US, look to Italy. We are on almost the exact same curve relative to new daily infections as them, only 10-14 days behind. Currently their deaths are increasing exponentially on a daily basis in spite of the facts that they closed schools and subsequently went into a northern Italy, then entire country lockdown over the last couple weeks. Per capita, their deaths yesterday were the rough equivalent to what the U.S. lost on 9/11. They'll lose a similar number if not more today. Think about a 9/11 loss every day for a country and this thing becomes a little more real. Italy has a similar number of hospital beds per person as the U.S. (they actually have slightly more beds per person than the us), and their hospitals are currently overwhelmed. The one bright spot is that new daily infections seem to be leveling off over there, and deaths will hopefully follow after a week or two lag time. If we want a different outcome in this country than they are experiencing, the only way we currently have to achieve that is to take actions at an earlier point in time relative to the infection curve than they did- this is the primary reason some states have already gone to shelter in place and more will likely follow.

I know all of this sucks for people with river permits and other trips coming up. I was supposed to be doing a backcountry ski event I've been training all winter for next weekend. It's obviously cancelled, but I've got hundreds of hours of training and over a thousand dollars in entry fees and hotel reservations tied up in that. Some of the financial outlay will hopefully be refunded, but the point is I have a lot invested into something that's not going to happen. Compared to someone that loses a loved one from this, my loss of a recreational pursuit is less than meaningless. I think that's what we all need to remember.

I also have numerous friends that work in the medical and first responder fields. They're putting their lives and the lives of their families at risk to treat people infected with this thing. The least we can do for them is to try our best to avoid putting ourselves in situations where we need medical attention (from the virus or from anything else we can avoid) or first response/rescue during recreational pursuits. Everyone has their own comfort zone when it comes to putting themselves in danger, but please remember that the consequences of all of our actions are higher for others this year. 

This thing sucks for everyone that's stuck in their house not making a living right now. My business is basically a giant question mark at this point, but even given that I know I'm very fortunate to have a house in a beautiful place with food in the fridge and a little bit of TP. This thing sucks a lot more for those that are on the front lines and for the families that are losing loved ones. As a community of generally able bodied people lets see if we can do anything to support those folks.

Don't forget the rivers and mountains will be there when we're on the other side of all this.


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## Deadlock281

Holy fook...... I forgot about this thread. It blew up. haha. I was supposed to be in west water in a week.

Has anyone heard anything about Idaho cancellations? I have a Hell's Canyon permit in June and I'm worried about too much financial commitment if it gets cancelled.


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## zbaird

Speaking for myself could be construed as blatant thoughtless selfishness I guess. 

The dumbfuckery though is that I choose to continue volunteering on the ambulance and will do so through the thick of this instead of being on the GC. When volunteer ambulance is all you got, someone has to volunteer.


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## td

Zach, thanks for being on that ambulance.


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## zbaird

Keeps things interesting! Majority of calls are pretty lame but we get some doozies for sure. 

Can't say I was gonna be sad about backing off shifts as April approaches and being gone for what will hopefully be peak infection time.


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## theusualsuspect

GeoRon said:


> A
> 
> Let's see, by my math, by anyone who knows math; 100 million infected, 1% death rate tap tap tap on calculator; that is a lot of fuck'in dead people. Appromately 1,000,000 dead people.
> 
> Here is a refresher on dumbfuckery.


Death rate 1.2% today. Falling everyday as we keep testing and getting data. 

I’m not here to change minds. I couldn’t care less. This is a pretty smart guy and brings up valid points. It isn’t in alignment with the views expressed mostly on this thread but deserves contemplation I believe. It’s an opinion piece by a Stanford professor. He’s a math and science guy. 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/


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## GeoRon

Zach,

There are two people you did not consider during your litany of "I's".

The ranger at the put-in that likely does not want to deal with perhaps a 100 people per day and then take home to their extended family a potentially deadly disease.

Your SO nurse who might in these difficult times benefit from your presence especially if she gets sick or has to deal with the death of patients. Watching her back might be nice.

Thank you for your service on the ambulance. Please be safe.


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## GeoRon

theusualsuspect said:


> Death rate 1.2% today. Falling everyday as we keep testing and getting data.
> 
> I’m not here to change minds. I couldn’t care less. This is a pretty smart guy and brings up valid points. It isn’t in alignment with the views expressed mostly on this thread but deserves contemplation I believe. It’s an opinion piece by a Stanford professor. He’s a math and science guy.
> 
> https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/


I read it. The guy frequently in one sentences says "over-reaction" and then concludes the sentence with something like "but we just don't know due to totally insufficient data". He consistently interprets unknowns in the favor of his opinion that we might be overreacting. Considering that this non-scientific "opinion" piece albeit by a doctor was written March 17th, I wonder with 5 days more hindsight how the author would modify his "opinion".

No where does this opinion piece mention China, Italy or Spain where substantially more is KNOWN. He only considers the US and cruise ships data. Maybe he should consider real data in situations that are further advanced or more realistic. Maybe he should discuss his opinion with the epidemiologist, the dead and the dying and their loved ones in those countries.

His conjecture that perhaps going short duration and tall might be better for the health care system than flattening the curve is an interesting consideration. Frankly, not much to consider since the implication of short duration and tall is don't even bring treatable people into the health care system because the capacity will only allow for a small fraction of the number, hence, let them die in place. His proposal is well enacted in the following video.

My conclusion is that the article is out of date(even predates Trumps reality checks) and that the guy is a heartless bastard. Besides, almost no other epidemiologist agreed with the guy even on March 17th. But I guess during a pandemic you must make sure not to damage 401K's, a reinterpretation of the Hippocratic oath of "do no harm". But such is the necessity of proper medical triage; i.e. deaths vs dollars. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg


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## theusualsuspect

Hahaha hey I work in healthcare. It’s always about dollars and not about people! Certainly from a corporate and industry side. 

Time will tell, probably like yourself, I just do what I’m told and what is supposedly in the best interest of the people around me and the United States of America.


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## zbaird

She was well considered and on the trip. Would have been nice for her to be able to step away from the frontlines for a bit. I am sure she'll appreciate your concern. As a high end ICU nurse and one of the first trained when we had the big ebola scare (at UCH before Salida) a few years back she isn't new to this and is one of the big reasons I get fairly desensitized to this shit. Plenty of death around us Ron. We just did CPR on a 50 Y/O lady a couple weeks ago up the road. Didn't work out. I've don't it 6 times in the last couple years.

As far as " people at the put in" Now I think you are just trying to stretch. 


GeoRon said:


> Zach,
> 
> There are two people you did not consider during your litany of "I's".
> 
> The people at the put-in that likely do not want to deal with perhaps a 100 people per day and then likely take home to their extended family a potentially deadly disease.
> 
> Your SO nurse who might in these difficult times benefit from your presence especially if she gets sick or has to deal with the death of patients. Watching her back might be nice.
> 
> Thank you for your service on the ambulance. Please be safe.


----------



## 50119

I have come to the conclusion today that all the bobble head nodders behind our supreme leader attempting to protect you and me are not necessarilly agreening. My personal OP is that now they are thinking ".....yep we're screwed", "I hope he stop's talking-soon". Some now have blank stare's looking straight ahead.

The new saying I am hearing now is "it's water under the bridge" when outlining "mis-steps", unfortunately there are million's of CFS heading down to the same bridge. State's and locals are our best hope for containment. 

Do you remember when travel restrictions were first put in place to screen foreign traveler's? Well, it was done at only three U.S. international airports. On the West Coast it was just LA, so when travelers from the Far East heard they were going to be screened I am willing to bet they changed their destination from LA to Sea Tac (Seattle), then hopped a domestic commuter to CA and other locations. Where was the first hot spot in the U.S. - Washington State was.

Parting thought to get my mind in a better place:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...-43&sk=&cvid=AB63E8FA88BE44509C169795620C8CEB


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## GeoRon

zbaird said:


> She was well considered and on the trip. Would have been nice for her to be able to step away from the frontlines for a bit. I am sure she'll appreciate your concern. As a high end ICU nurse and one of the first trained when we had the big ebola scare (at UCH before Salida) a few years back she isn't new to this and is one of the big reasons I get fairly desensitized to this shit. Plenty of death around us Ron. We just did CPR on a 50 Y/O lady a couple weeks ago up the road. Didn't work out. I've don't it 6 times in the last couple years.
> 
> As far as " people at the put in" Now I think you are just trying to stretch.


Yo Zach, you are right. 

Perhaps I assume to much when I suggest that they (Rangers) at the put-in would prefer not to bring this virus home to their extended family.

I also perhaps assume to much about nurses, first responders and death. Although, in my 20's I dated a women who worked the pre-me(sp?) ward at DU. She never got over the death of a patient but maybe that was because they were babies. I ended up holding her likely how she held or tended her babies at such times.

I've mostly from a distance meet your SO. She is an obviously beautiful and in every sense a wonderful person. So are you. Cherish each other. Especially now. 

Yes, death is all around us. I held my fathers hand and my SO's mothers hand as that last struggle for life left them. It is impacting; I have not desensitized.

Maybe I am overly biased by a bug that is likely to kill me by excess fluids in lungs(drowning) or other complications disproportionately at a rate 10x younger people. How selfish? I will try to be more understanding. 

Take care and best regards my friend.


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## John_in_Loveland

How's this for forward thinking... NYTimes: A Plan to Get America Back to Work
A Plan to Get America Back to Work https://nyti.ms/2vGFheB

Sent from my SM-G970U using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## GeoRon

chiefstilh20 said:


> I have come to the conclusion today that all the bobble head nodders behind our supreme leader attempting to protect you and me are not necessarilly agreening. My personal OP is that now they are thinking ".....yep we're screwed", "I hope he stop's talking-soon". Some now have blank stare's looking straight ahead.
> 
> The new saying I am hearing now is "it's water under the bridge" when outlining "mis-steps", unfortunately there are million's of CFS heading down to the same bridge. State's and locals are our best hope for containment.
> 
> Do you remember when travel restrictions were first put in place to screen foreign traveler's? Well, it was done at only three U.S. international airports. On the West Coast it was just LA, so when travelers from the Far East heard they were going to be screened I am willing to bet they changed their destination from LA to Sea Tac (Seattle), then hopped a domestic commuter to CA and other locations. Where was the first hot spot in the U.S. - Washington State was.
> 
> Parting thought to get my mind in a better place:
> 
> https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...-43&sk=&cvid=AB63E8FA88BE44509C169795620C8CEB


Chief, I love David Attenborough, brilliant mind and conveyor of thoughts. 

I love your "get my mind in a better place".

Please forward to after 2:11 the below video to understand. I hope such a video will help me die of COVID at age 65. NOT LIKELY. Under a short duration but tall curve scenario proposed by some; I will die by drowning in a bed room by COVID with three cats and my SO in attendance.

I know where you heart is and thank you. I love everything the Attenbourgh brothers have ever done. I will watch again and again your link during these time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOV8mBjHHYg


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## noahfecks

Stop pretending like Italy is a relevant comparison to the US. Stop acting like this is the black plague and anyone who is infected dies.


Stop hyping this into something it's not. Chill the fuck out, stop screaming fire in a packed theater. 



Yes if half the people who live in the US get this that's 165MM. So far the dramatically overstated death rate is 1% as a worst case scenario. That's 1.6MM and that sounds like a lot without any background color, but since this predominantly effects the elderly and those with extenuating medical circumstances, lets compare it to the normal death rate of people in those groups. Annually about 3MM elderly and infirmed die in this country, so without any sensationalization we are right on track for a perfectly normal rate of death in any given year.


The little boy has cried wolf too many times. Stop giving away the power for a made up crisis. Dont buy into the hype, stop and take a second and ask, how does this info hold up to basic logic?


And GeoRon, is it fun being an internet tough guy? Are you suffering from dementia? You are loosing it dude, time to put down the bong.


----------



## DidNotWinLottery

okieboater said:


> Here is a video I found on youtube about the road into Gleason Flats. Looks like that last mile or so is a challenge for sure unless you got the real deal off road machine.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIKKVp7Hocw



Its funny how different I am then most River Runners, I use a Power Wagon as my Raft tow rig. That road would barely be a speed bump. Would just be annoying going slow because of the trailer. So many river runners drive crappy little cars like Subarus not well suited to getting to remote put ins.


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## okieboater

DidNotWinLottery,
We were camped close to the Gleason Flat road at (my guess) one of the few flat campsites in the area. The gent that pulled in from the road was in a jacked up Power wagon. Looked like it had plenty of miles on it but was still going strong. Amazing off road vehicle. I used to live in Park City Utah. Deer hunted with a couple brothers who had rebuilt two old power wagons. These vehicles could go places I did not want to walk. Congrats to you for having a Power Wagon.
dave


----------



## GeoRon

noahfecks said:


> Stop pretending like Italy is a relevant comparison to the US. Stop acting like this is the black plague and anyone who is infected dies.
> 
> Stop hyping this into something it's not. Chill the fuck out, stop screaming fire in a packed theater.
> 
> Yes if half the people who live in the US get this that's 165MM. So far the dramatically overstated death rate is 1% as a worst case scenario. That's 1.6MM and that sounds like a lot without any background color, but since this predominantly effects the elderly and those with extenuating medical circumstances, lets compare it to the normal death rate of people in those groups. Annually about 3MM elderly and infirmed die in this country, so without any sensationalization we are right on track for a perfectly normal rate of death in any given year.
> 
> The little boy has cried wolf too many times. Stop giving away the power for a made up crisis. Dont buy into the hype, stop and take a second and ask, how does this info hold up to basic logic?
> 
> And GeoRon, is it fun being an internet tough guy? Are you suffering from dementia? You are loosing it dude, time to put down the bong.


And how is Italy, Spain and China different then the US? In this context, that is the most deep rooted xenophobic thought that I have ever heard.

True Noah. If the elderly die now we won't have to deal with them later. As we continue this conversation to make sure it is fully understood between us what we are referring too let's coin the term "elder cleansing" and for more generic instances "infirmed cleansing". In fact, this could be considered an excellent "final solution" to dealing with the infirmed. 

How does this info hold up to basic logic? Well, depends on the brain trying to perform logic.

I have no problem urging in the strongest terms to do what our president is asking us to do.(never thought I'd say "our" with respect to this president).

Signed:
Chicken Little (age 65, likely death bracket for COVID19, 10%(más y menos, certainly más if no ventilators are available))


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## GeoRon

okieboater said:


> Here is a video I found on youtube about the road into Gleason Flats. Looks like that last mile or so is a challenge for sure unless you got the real deal off road machine.


Thanks for the video. It is nice to feel like being there even if I can't.


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## Ezcruzr

Social distancing of six feet doesn't make much sense when a sneeze can travel a hundred miles an hour and a distance of 200 feet. A cough can travel at around 50 miles an hour. Good luck on your six foot safety zone. Best to stay home if you can


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## 2tomcat2

Research article below sets sneeze distance between 2 feet and 14 feet with variables...agree, best to stay home if possible.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0059970


----------



## BGillespie

DidNotWinLottery said:


> Its funny how different I am then most River Runners, I use a Power Wagon as my Raft tow rig. That road would barely be a speed bump. Would just be annoying going slow because of the trailer. So many river runners drive crappy little cars like Subarus not well suited to getting to remote put ins.


I bought a p-wagon new in 2007 and built it into what would now be called an "expedition rig". :roll: It was a giant turd and Chrysler bought it back after 2.5 years of component failures, but I still kinda miss it. The new models are sweet. My latest shuttle/camping/lighter duty towing build is a 1996 12 valve with a service body, huge aluminum rack, winch, Ford D60 front axle, coilovers, lockers, beadlocks, bla bla bla.


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## Andy H.

Here's a graphic showing why we need to take this stuff seriously:










It ain't "just the flu."


----------



## Will Amette

Andy H. said:


> Here's a graphic showing why we need to take this stuff seriously:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It ain't "just the flu."





I am not on Twitter, but did see *this video* that puts it in a different perspective.




.


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## Ezcruzr

On Slate.com they have an April 2014 MIT research studdy that showed a sneeze can travel up to 200 feet. I would think that's under prime condition and I don't know what amount of pathogens , if any, would be viable at that distance. I'm just not trusting a six foot safe space.


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## Flatlandr360

I'll chime in my $.02, as I feel my perspective pertains.

I hold a cancelled 4/20 GRCA permit, had all my ducks in a row, and had recently been in touch with my team who each voiced their intent to go forward as planned. As I see it there were two pivotal decisions: to drive, and to put on. I'd focus here on the latter.

Assuming I hopped in my vehicle, and drove the 20+ hours to the Ferry, rigged up, and stood ready to step off the beach, what would that look like?

I serve among a 40+ anesthesiologists group, and I'd offer a glimpse into our dialogue over the past several weeks. Our topics have ranged from the virology to the epidemiology to recently the personal protective measures necessary to keep us in service. Our organizational society is releasing almost daily updates to knowledge base and clarifying prior guidance based on the evolving landscape.

IF my permit wasn't cancelled, and IF I was so bold to turn the ignition key that first time, and IF I found myself with one knee on a tube, and one on the beach, what would it mean to push off?

-An anesthesiologist works in the "Holy of Holies" when it comes to observation and execution of asepsis, but we assume we'll catch the virus at some point (if I don't already have it)--n95s and PAPRs be damned. I'm sure members of my team practice the utmost of hygiene--but they haven't trained and operated with constant consideration of contact surface transmission, aerosols, etc. What are the odds we converge from all corners of the country without harboring a highly communicable pathogen? 
-I'm 45. 3 members of my 8 are young retirees. As a physician, what responsibility would I bear in managing outbreak among our group, and am I prepared to venture that risk?
-Is everyone in the group equally prepared to shoulder the additional load should we need to carry on? How many of us would be able under that circumstance?

In any case, I knew the right answer long ago, but it wasn't until last week, when the decision was made for me that I fully understood the burden my decision represented. 

The right choice was made for me, and it was a disappointing relief.


----------



## Andy H.

So here's a set of modeling projections endorsed by lots of doctors and medical academics and public health professionals - the kind of folks I'd expect to know something about this stuff. It says that THIS IS THE WEEK we need to start practicing lockdown to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system (the "untreated patients dying on gurneys in the hallway" scenario). Hopefully this is all overly cautious, but if it's not, it won't be very gratifying to say "I told you so" to the doubters when it's all over. It's a model, and no model is perfect, however the type of analysis this one's doing and results it's showing indicate we need to quit wasting time and start staying home now.

Click on your state to see the prognosis.

Why you must act now


----------



## GeoRon

Andy H. said:


> So here's a set of modeling projections endorsed by lots of doctors and medical academics and public health professionals - the kind of folks I'd expect to know something about this stuff. It says that THIS IS THE WEEK we need to start practicing lockdown to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system (the "untreated patients dying on gurneys in the hallway" scenario). Hopefully this is all overly cautious, but if it's not, it won't be very gratifying to say "I told you so" to the doubters when it's all over. It's a model, and no model is perfect, however the type of analysis this one's doing and results it's showing indicate we need to quit wasting time and start staying home now.
> 
> Click on your state to see the prognosis.
> 
> Why you must act now


These models are worse than Chicken Little imagined.

There are unconfirmed reports in Italy that it has gotten so bad that respiratory machines(ventilators) will only be for those persons under age 60. According to the models, we are only a few weeks away from being in the same situation here.

https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856


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## caverdan

Thanks Andy for all your input. 

Chicken Little......I too thought the sky was falling.....but I started drinking Coronas.....I forget how many days ago. Guess what?? .....the sky is still there!!!! :???: :mrgreen: 

Dr. Dan the caver man prescribes you and the rest of the Buzzards do the same.  

Drink Coronas!!! 8) It's the best tasting vaccine out there. :-D

Disclaimer: Do not drink and drive. Please stay home instead.


----------



## GeoRon

caverdan said:


> Thanks Andy for all your input.
> 
> Chicken Little......I too thought the sky was falling.....but I started drinking Coronas.....I forget how many days ago. Guess what?? .....the sky is still there!!!! :???: :mrgreen:
> 
> Dr. Dan the caver man prescribes you and the rest of the Buzzards do the same.
> 
> Drink Coronas!!! 8) It's the best tasting vaccine out there. :-D
> 
> Disclaimer: Do not drink and drive. Please stay home instead.


Since there are no rooms left in the hospital, I can see the doctor going gurney to gurney down the hospital hall, "Ventilator for you, in five days." Step step step down the hall, next patient. "Corona for you." 

According to the models, we'd better import a lot more Corona.

I started to write a first hand account of witnessing death by respiratory failure, that is, drowning when the respirator is removed. I could not finish. I will spare you what brought me to tears, again.


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## 2tomcat2

Thank you, Andy


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## caverdan

Ron....It's like when your guide falls out of the boat. I was taught you throw him/her a beer......because beer floats...... and they will be much happier swimming with a beer in their hand. 

Ron, Thank you for saving us all from your story. Much appreciated.


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## okieboater

Speaker Pelosi just released her changes to the covid 19 financial stimilus bill in the Senate

if you ever wondered why it takes so long to make a law in Congress, maybe this will help explain it.

https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6817711-Updated-House-Bill


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## Andy H.

okieboater said:


> Speaker Pelosi just released her changes to the covid 19 financial stimilus bill in the Senate
> 
> if you ever wondered why it takes so long to make a law in Congress, maybe this will help explain it.
> 
> https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6817711-Updated-House-Bill


Maybe it would've gone faster if they'd drafted it in bipartisan fashion, instead of the Republicans writing the whole thing behind closed doors and springing on the Dems at the last minute. 

Maybe something like this would've worked a little better: 
Republican bill writer: "We want do do A, B, C, and D." 
Dem bill writer: "Well we can go with A and C, but B's a non-starter and if we're going to do D, then we'll need these conditions to it." 
R - Ok, how about instead of B, let's do E, and we'll add these conditions to D.
Dem bill writer, "OK, we can work with that, now lets get to the next section."

That's how it's supposed to be done. Unless you're trying to make the other guys look bad, then you do it like the Republicans did here - steamroll a bunch of corporate giveaways with no oversight, and screw regular folks. If a cruise ship is sailing under a Liberian flag to avoid US labor laws and other regulations, shouldn't they be going to the Liberian government for their bailout? If a company didn't pay any taxes last year and pays their employees so little that half are on food stamps while the CEO makes $50M a year, maybe their bailout should have some strings attached for the folks at the bottom.


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## noahfecks

I wonder where the R's learned to do that?


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## B4otter

Moscow Mitch...


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## okieboater

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pelosi-schumer-contagion-11585006077

According to the Wall St Journal, Senator Schumer did state the bill was being created in bi partisan fashion.


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## GeoRon

caverdan said:


> Ron....It's like when your guide falls out of the boat. I was taught you throw him/her a beer......because beer floats...... and they will be much happier swimming with a beer in their hand.
> 
> Ron, Thank you for saving us all from your story. Much appreciated.


Sorry Caverdan, that bit about respiratory death was not intended for your post. It was intended to be in association with a post concerning the presidents announcement that we must return to normality and accept the deaths in stride. Overnight the TX Lt Gov offered up the suggestion that we seniors would be willing to risk death for our country by respiratory failure. Nice of him.


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## caverdan

The swamp has spoken! Live with it people!!!


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## GeoRon

okieboater said:


> https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pelosi-schumer-contagion-11585006077
> 
> According to the Wall St Journal, Senator Schumer did state the bill was being created in bi partisan fashion.


From the editorial board of the WSJ, in this case, the voice of socialist capitalism. They talk tough about balancing the budget, socialism and handouts until they need a bailout or an unnecessary tax cut that blows the budget all to hell.


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## DidNotWinLottery

caverdan said:


> Ron....It's like when your guide falls out of the boat. I was taught you throw him/her a beer......because beer floats...... and they will be much happier swimming with a beer in their hand.
> 
> Ron, Thank you for saving us all from your story. Much appreciated.



That is completely unsafe! You should be tossing the throw bag :shock: The coil of rope should be pre-wrapped around the can in the bag. Geesh, an experienced rafter like you......


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## caverdan

DidNotWinLottery said:


> That is completely unsafe! You should be tossing the throw bag :shock: The coil of rope should be pre-wrapped around the can in the bag. Geesh, an experienced rafter like you......


You are so right......rafting is completely unsafe :mrgreen:


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## dirtbagkayaker

The buzz devolved to nothing more than a bunch of gray balls virtue signalling to other gray balls like a pink haired feminist pussy March. Soon you girls will be licking toilets for attention and bitchin about who's doing it wrong!

Super sad if you really think about it.


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## quinoa

Says he with 1,621 posts


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## raymo

She is so wrong, because I use Grecian Formula just for men. I like these kicking each other in the nuts conversation, very stimulating, it's just what we do for entertainment in these trying times. Plus everything is closed, we are just doing our part by staying indoors. Love you brother.


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## 2tomcat2

dirtbagkayaker,

You did get one thing right....I am a girl


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## raymo

Plus, I love seeing the post of a cute dog standing in a raft, that shit warms my heart or a fellow boater taking an old boat trailer and trying to turn it into a rocket ship and all the excellent help and advice that is shared with him on his build. MB is a great Forum.


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## dirtbagkayaker

quinoa said:


> Says he with 1,621 posts


Says he with 81 posts? If that's all ya got than I can only imagine how exciting all 80 of your other posts have been.


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## quinoa

Because I'm outside doing fun and exciting stuff instead of browsing mountain buzz talking about it.


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## noahfecks

quinoa said:


> Because I'm outside doing fun and exciting stuff instead of browsing mountain buzz talking about it.



Don't lie, I know where Ute City is, your under a shelter in place order


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## quinoa

Ha! Got me! That's why I'm sitting here joking around on the Buzz! Laid off from the ski area and lost my 4/29 Grand launch. You could say I'm a little cranky! 
Peace!


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## okieboater

Amazing how MB traffic and topics pick up when none of us are boating!


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## rtsideup

Ya'll need to eddy out for a turkey leg and Schiltz.
https://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f11/bout-lost-my-life-yesterday-18716.html


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