# Middle Fork Salmon - Week of July 18th 2011 Flows?



## zoomer (Jun 30, 2011)

We have a middle fork of the Salmon permit for the week of July 18th and I am wondering about the flows. Currently it is running at 6’ on the gage. Based on some of my research, they say that only highly experienced rafters should run the middle fork above 5’. We have a mixed group of rafters some with 4-6 years of experience on rivers such as the Arkansas (Brown’s Canyon, Pinnacle Rock to Park dale) and other members in the group with very little experience. Does anyone have any thoughts on this? We are still 2+ weeks out, so there is a good chance it will come down before we launch, but I thought I would check to see what others think.
Thanks...


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## BmfnL (May 23, 2009)

Your raft captains with "very little experience" will be in tears on day one and two. Just ran it at over 6' and that upper stretch is for real. From what I gather it is no cake walk at lower levels either.


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## rwhyman (May 23, 2005)

Here is a video that was posted on the Idaho whitewater forum. Starts at the put in and then goes the first couple of miles @ 6.66. It shows Murph's Hole where someone lost their life just before this video was shot. Notice the river speed and lack of eddies. You'll want to be on your A game from the start.

YouTube - ‪MIddle Fork of the Salmon River, Boundary Creek to past Murph's hole 6/16/2011‬‏

For more info, check out the Idaho forum.


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## tellutwurp (Jul 8, 2005)

does it make a difference if they are river hardened kayakers, taking a leisurely stroll in a raft.


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## BarryDingle (Mar 13, 2008)

Even at 4.5 its a pushy river(up top) in a heavy boat. Probably not the best place to learn how to row. Some in the group sound pretty inexperienced,not sure if the oarsman or passengers. 

We pulled into Trail Flat camp last season,at 4ft,and helped a group gather up the pieces from a flip in velvet. And he had experience on the MF. The boat floated from velvet to TF and got hung up in the shallows. Sheared off one oar tower,bent the other,emptied the cooler,lost an oar,and lost the tap to the keg that was in the stern....ouch. That was a lot of useless weight in the boat for 6 more days. Lesson=bring a spare tap


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## Anchorless (Aug 3, 2010)

I suppose it all depends on the flow. 

I've ran the MFSR twice around mid-July, and the flows are usually ~3ft or lower (so, admittedly, an easier flow). Also, this was pre-Murph's. But I ran an oar boat as an 19 year old with no experience rowing but following experienced paddlers, and I was just fine both times. 

My experience doesn't translate to your situation, obviously. Just use some common sense and watch the levels. It's isolated so if something happens, you're stuck in there.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Hey guys stop scaring the poor guy. The river will start dropping quickly in a few days. I would be surprised if it is over 4 feet by then. The river will be busy but not too bad. I usually wait until I am below Velvet to start drinking but then game on. 

If you are worried about making the 'move' in Velvet just run the hole. Easier that way. 

If it is under 4 feet, which I suspect it will be you will likely be just fine. Lake Creek starts to come into play then and some other things further down. 4 feet is a dream level for me though as every hole can be run if you hit it straight. Just have the newbies punch everything white with as much speed as possible......except for the hole in Lower Cliffside and they can probably do that too.

Pm if you want more info. Or ask here. Don't be scared, it will be awesome. Go slow the first couple of days. Set safety a couple of places, don't hit Murphs' sideways.


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

*kayakers and rowers*



tellutwurp said:


> does it make a difference if they are river hardened kayakers, taking a leisurely stroll in a raft.


Here is an opinion.

I am a long time kayaker been rowing as well for a few years. My first real river to row was the Middle Fork and I was scared ****less day one and last day and several times in between. I would not recommend the Middle Fork for a first time rower unless conditions are ideal. I was lucky on day one and last day to have a experienced Middle Fork rafter to ride in the bow and coach me on where to go etc. Also we had an ideal level not low and not big.

Being a experienced kayaker helps because you know how to read water. That is where it ends tho.

I found rowing lines to be way different than kayak lines.
In kayaks on most runs there are options, if you do not like your line you can change it and finding a eddy to stop and scout is easy.

In rafts, you make up your line way in advance and most of the time you have to stick with it. Finding and hitting eddies is a lot harder in a raft.

Bottom line kayak experience is a good thing, but rafts do not handle at all like kayaks and for me at least it took some time, going to guide school and coaching from experienced rowers to get comfortable rowing.


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## BarryDingle (Mar 13, 2008)

Stop dickwaving CD,"you have become complacent and dangerous"....
j/k

I gotta agree though,4ft is a GREAT level.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Hey I bought a new dry top this year.....wouldn't do that if I didn't think there was a chance now would I?


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## tellutwurp (Jul 8, 2005)

the video made me think it was rathereasy. perhaps fast and no eddies, but one hole to miss in 15 minute video seems rather easy.


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## lhowemt (Apr 5, 2007)

Everything looks easy on POV video. Even the NF Payette.

I bet things don't really start tanking until mid-July, but it should be much more reasonable than 6'. 4' for an inexperienced oarsperson? It depends, are they used to desert rivers where you line up and shoot? Or have they done any technical rowing? The MF requires a lot more maneuvering and ability to move a boat. Make sure they have lighter (and smaller) boats so they have every advantage to make moves that they need to.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

tellutwurp said:


> the video made me think it was rathereasy. perhaps fast and no eddies, but one hole to miss in 15 minute video seems rather easy.


At 6 feet it is the easiest you can get to run off the top of the MF except for that one hole. It was just six minutes though from where he started to the hole. That = 10 mph steady the whole time. If you didn't know the guy who made the vid stopped the video so he could assist someone who had a heart attack most likely. The person who died was in the water for close to four minutes after that one hole. 

Looks easy doesn't really mean easy. 

Here is Velvet at 4.3 feet. The hole at 6.8 feet was about twice as wide and three times as deep. Not too many rafts would get stopped in this if you hit it straight with a little mo....


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## zoomer (Jun 30, 2011)

lhowemt said:


> Everything looks easy on POV video. Even the NF Payette.
> 
> I bet things don't really start tanking until mid-July, but it should be much more reasonable than 6'. 4' for an inexperienced oarsperson? It depends, are they used to desert rivers where you line up and shoot? Or have they done any technical rowing? The MF requires a lot more maneuvering and ability to move a boat. Make sure they have lighter (and smaller) boats so they have every advantage to make moves that they need to.


 
Thanks everyone for all the information…. Not sure if we should be scared ***less, or bring more beer.

Everyone in the group has had a chance or two to paddle class III+ water on the Arkansas (Browns Canyon and Parkdale) in Colorado, so they have some technical skills. We are hoping that by July 18 the flows will have calmed down (That is only two+ weeks away, so who knows). We have 14’ rafts and 1 16’ CAT and plan on leaving the keg at home to cut back on the weight. Sortof a light and fast type of deal…

Just so I understand CarveDog, you say punch the hole on Velvet rather than hit the eddie on river left. Is this just for ease, or really the best run?


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

I have seen more newbies get in trouble at 4.5 thinking they 'have' to go left. I usually do that just to show the line, but it's far easier ( and more fun) to run the hole. 

Scout it below the busy water of Hell's Half Mile if in doubt. There are gps coordinates somewhere but I not skilled enough to boat and read gps at the same time. 

If you are running the hole don't aim for the center. i would aim for center right as the creek that comes in from the right will push you left a bit. 

Pretty sure you will be around 4 feet, certainly less than five. 

i can give more advanced beta for 4 feet but lets see what it gets down to before launch. Hope it works for you.


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## jmcdannel (Apr 22, 2009)

Opinions of how to run velvet vary wildly. I always run left. I missed once at 5.5'. It sucked. My wife and I high-sided HARD and barely made it without flipping. The left run gets easier as flows drop, but the hole gets bigger with the flows - so, it's always a tough call.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

jmcdannel said:


> Opinions of how to run velvet vary wildly. I always run left. I missed once at 5.5'. It sucked. My wife and I high-sided HARD and barely made it without flipping. The left run gets easier as flows drop, but the hole gets bigger with the flows - so, it's always a tough call.



Meaning you tried to make the left line and didn't and went through the steepest part of the hole sideways? I too have done that.

At 5.5 I wouldn't rec this for newbies. At the 4 to 4.5 they will have an easier time just running it balls to the wall. Below 4 I think it becomes much easier to pierce the eddy line and suck in behind the rock.


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## daveb1 (Jul 18, 2008)

Okay all you MF crystal ballers. Flow predictions are a little confusing, since today came in lower than predicted, so am wondering if we are finally on the continuous downward slope now! The folks at Middle Fork Ranger Station tell me that the peak has occurred and we're on the downslope. That's certainly what I want to think, with a July 5 launch, but I'm dubious given all the bizarre ups and downs we've seen in the flow.

What do you guys think - any more increases coming with the warmer weather this weekend, or are we coming down for good?


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## lhowemt (Apr 5, 2007)

Ron A, the water guru over at Idaho whitewater just posted some data for the Salmon basin. Unfortunately it is the entire salmon basin, so it is hard to tell. Comparing the current SWE to an "average" year we are about 2/3 of a month behind. Right now it's like early/mid June. Yes, it's probably peaked, but peaking at 8' doesn't really matter if follow up crests are 7.9'. The Selway is at 8' right now, crazy late for that.

I'd say take your date, and subtract 1/2-2/3 of a month, and look at what is "normal" then, and decide if you are comfortable with what you might see then. Either way, normal or this year, natural variability and rain make it impossible to know for sure on any given day.

I'm glad to see the Clearwater Basin (Lochsa), about where it is in late May. Freaking wahoo! 6' tomorrow and HOT!


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## Wavester (Jul 2, 2010)

"Lesson=bring a spare tap"
 That's by FAR the best advice I have ever got on MB.


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## Richard1 (Jul 12, 2010)

*Middle Fork Week of July 18th*

Life will be great! The water gods at the state are forecasting at 90% probability that the river will between 3.25' and 3.5'. A great level to float. Enough water to keep you off the rocks and not so much as to create huge laterals or holes. The water is steady and not pulsing. Not to say that there will be no flips or wraps but its not 6' or <2'. Launching same week. You will have a trip of a life time. I have floated the middle fork almost every year (including guiding a couple of seasons)at least once since 1988, this level is great! Look forward to it and have the time of your life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## lyhfamily (May 13, 2009)

*Middle Fork Salmon*

This could be fun guessing a water level. With the sustained flows in southern and eastern Idaho, I would be surprised if you are below 4.5' for your trip. In any event, I would not take anything for granted. If the group is expecting to 'float' and party, they may be in for a big surprise. If they are going for a wilderness experience, and prepared to work, they will have a ball. At almost any level, the first 8 miles from Boundary can be punishing in either mistakes, cramped muscles, or a steep learning curve. I have not heard anyone mention sulphur, powerhouse, or the laterals at rubber and weber. I agree with the 'hitting it head on' mentality but with those laterals, it is easier said than done for less experienced rowers.

Have a great time. If you are prepared you will be just fine.

Lanny


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## Avatard (Apr 29, 2011)

The rapids before Pistol (Lake Creek?) was huge at 3.5 two years ago. Had one gear boat (newbie) flip and another boat toss its passengers. Have fun i'm envious


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## fiya79 (Feb 9, 2010)

Heading out in 8 hous. Launching in 16 hours. wooooohhhh. 5.95'


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## 2FLY (Jul 3, 2011)

*I found this helpful for forecasting*

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Richard1 said:


> Life will be great! The water gods at the state are forecasting at 90% probability that the river will between 3.25' and 3.5'. A great level to float. Enough water to keep you off the rocks and not so much as to create huge laterals or holes. The water is steady and not pulsing. Not to say that there will be no flips or wraps but its not 6' or <2'. Launching same week. You will have a trip of a life time. I have floated the middle fork almost every year (including guiding a couple of seasons)at least once since 1988, this level is great! Look forward to it and have the time of your life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





2FLY said:


> National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service



Guys, guys - you need to know that a lot of these 'predictions' are just one computer fapping another one. Pretty sure the Noaa one is completely computer generated and has no basis in reality other than it is more responsive to generating storm related forecasts than general runoff. I have been watching the flows on USGS since around the mid 90s and been looking at the Noaa 'forecasts' for around 10 years. The Noaa forecasts are crap. Straight up. 

Watch them and see what I mean. Just checked and it's calling for 5.2 by the end of the 7th. Once peak and Banner meltout have been reached it drops quite a bit quicker than that. Pretty sure it will be 4.5 or less by then. The parameters that have been programmed do not work well. 

The state exceedance probabilities are much more accurate as they have been fine tuned over time by real people. Pretty sure that Ron A. works on this one quite a bit and he is good. He also gets out and does snow surveys and hikes around the back country a fair bit, as well as going rafting.


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## fiya79 (Feb 9, 2010)

put on 7/1 at 5.95 and took off 7/5 at 5.5. never ran it above 2 before. everything was pretty straightforward. Murph's was fizzled out. Velvet was center punch with an easy kayak sneak. Lake was read and run. Pistol was washed out. the last 20 miles were big but fun and read and run.
The middle 50 miles were easy.

The crew was not terribly experienced and fairly old but we kept it tight and I ran kayak scout. Have fun out there.

ourcamps:

Dolly
sunflower flats
hospital bar
elk bar


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## fastfeet15 (Jul 8, 2011)

what does the water clarity look like? launching on the 17th and worried more about the fly fishing...


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

fastfeet15 said:


> what does the water clarity look like? launching on the 17th and worried more about the fly fishing...



The fishing will be awesome. Go big. On our June 15th trip one of the guys actually caught some fish at almost 7 feet. Nothing but getting clearer now. And below 4 feet it starts to really come alive for dry flies. 

Barring the summer thunder boomer that blows out Lake Creek yet again and muddies the water it will be fantastic.


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## fiya79 (Feb 9, 2010)

Agreed. Caught plenty of decent fish on everything we tried. Dry flies were good in big eddies. renegades and pmd were decent. caught lots on spinners too. Only fished from mile 32 to 70 due to time. clarity was pretty good to about big loon.

Fished big creek with spinners with good success for the short time I was there despite fairly poor clarity. MF fish are dumb.

I did not have good success hitting holes from the boat on the fly. pretty much had to eddy out and throw a decent cast to a good spot but when in big eddies it was good.


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## Swissriver (Jun 24, 2011)

Just got off yesterday. First day was tough. Murph's nearly tipped me. As it was I took a swim. Ugh. Horrible way to start. Hit every hole in slide and ramshorn. Hugged the rock and eddy to get the left at velvet. Lucky there. One boat in our group tore out his floor, a tube that Took out 2 baffles. All 3'passengers swimming and when landed the next 4.5 hours rebuilding. We made it 6 miles the first day. Should have gone 17. Amazing rafters shared their camp as we pulled in at 7 pm. 
River only got better from there. Lower end totally covered. Airplane 18 inched under water. Glide over to the right. Not a rock in sight. Rubber and Hancock the same. Just read and run. 
For sure the most amazing river. Grateful for my time on it. Sad to leave.


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## carvedog (May 11, 2005)

Swissriver said:


> Airplane 18 inched under water. Glide over to the right. Not a rock in sight.


Other than it's haiku like qualities what does this mean. Airplane 18 inched under water????


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## Swissriver (Jun 24, 2011)

Airplane rock (as noted in the guidebook I lived and breathed the last week) at Redside.


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