# Permit results. (Warning crying ahead)



## Fly By Night (Oct 31, 2018)

I just got a rejection from the Rouge,8 hours and 20 minutes early, I wasn't ready for this kind of letdown, I planned on preparing for bad news after dinner. 

What did you win/ loose?!


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## Beer Waggin (Jul 8, 2016)

We got one Rogue Permit... between 5 different applications. 
I’ve never done it, so I guess we’ll see what all the hype is about.


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## mkashzg (Aug 9, 2006)

Unfortunately I also received my rejection notice on my Rogue permit.


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## TXwhitewater (Mar 15, 2014)

*Rogue permit*

No permit here. Maybe tomorrow will be better.


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## [email protected] (Jun 1, 2010)

I have not received a notice yet for Rogue either way. Hoping that is a good thing. Others I know that put in got no e-mail


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## Nubie Jon (Dec 19, 2017)

So..... Sitting on the Red Eye to Boston to visit my sick brother and I received the following email.....

Congratulations! We wanted to let you know the lottery drawing recently took place and you’ve been awarded a permit reservation at Dinosaur Green And Yampa River Permits on Tuesday July 21 2020.

Hell yeah!


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## Lipripper60 (Jul 1, 2018)

I have not yet been notified that I was again a willing donor of ineffective lottery fees. (Not wise to get my hopes up).


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Strike out for Dino.


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## Lipripper60 (Jul 1, 2018)

And........a big swing and a miss. Nothing for me again this year. I swear I'm going to forget water runs downhill.


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## T.O.Mac (Jun 6, 2015)

No 4 Rivers, No Dinosaur, No Salt, holding out for a Deso


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## MontanaMule (Jun 29, 2017)

Nothing like waking up to complete rejection to all my salmon/selway permits. Happy Valentines Day!


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

GC hasn't happened yet... but struck out on Selway, MFS, and Salt.

Selway is at the top of my list this year so if you got a permit and want another person shoot me a PM.


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## zaczac4fun (Mar 21, 2018)

No Middle Fork, no Main Salmon, no Selway, no Gates, no Hell. Haven't had this much rejection on a Valentines day since kindergarten


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## 76763 (Jul 16, 2018)

No for Dino (Lodore). Eh, that's OK, I did the Yampa run last year and had a great time (late season/low water in an IK, fwiw). I tried to see if there was a way to sign up for a pre-season run via Lodore, e.g. late March in a drysuit, but coudn't see where that was even possible. Maybe I'll dig deeper into that. 

-Tom


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## NoCo (Jul 21, 2009)

No permits here. Screw this. Im quiting boating. Maybe start doing aqua aerobics or solo synchronized swimming.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

Tom Pierce said:


> No for Dino (Lodore). Eh, that's OK, I did the Yampa run last year and had a great time (late season/low water in an IK, fwiw). I tried to see if there was a way to sign up for a pre-season run via Lodore, e.g. late March in a drysuit, but coudn't see where that was even possible. Maybe I'll dig deeper into that.
> 
> -Tom


Those dates open up on March 6th... same day the high use permits that got declined go back on the block. Fastest mouse click at 8am wins.


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## Utah78 (Apr 28, 2018)

I didn't get any either. But my brother (non-river runner) just texted to say he got a Main Salmon!


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

Nubie Jon said:


> So..... Sitting on the Red Eye to Boston to visit my sick brother and I received the following email.....
> 
> Congratulations! We wanted to let you know the lottery drawing recently took place and you’ve been awarded a permit reservation at Dinosaur Green And Yampa River Permits on Tuesday July 21 2020.
> 
> Hell yeah!


Sweet!

I got skunked on the Main, Middle, Selway and Yampa, but my buddy got a Main launch 6/26.


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## 76763 (Jul 16, 2018)

Electric-Mayhem said:


> Those dates open up on March 6th... same day the high use permits that got declined go back on the block. Fastest mouse click at 8am wins.


Oh, _that_ process...been there, done that for a few years without luck. Seems like the commerical outfits have the Lodore run pretty locked down until November, maybe I'll try then. 

But thanks Electric! 

-Tom


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## crossfox21 (Feb 27, 2010)

Nothing for me and my group. For those chosen few who attained a Selway, congratulations! I have been trying and hoping since day one. If you have room for an experienced Class 4 boater and his son, we would be happy to accompany and help out any way possible. [email protected]

Hope everyone has a good safe season this year


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## rivh2o (Jan 17, 2013)

Here we go again. Bummer when I did not get a Yampa permit. 30 some odd years in a row... But then there it was a Middle Fork win. Yippy Kiyae! 

All is good now


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## JB13 (Jun 1, 2011)

Nothing again- 5th year in a row boo


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## dirtbagkayaker (Oct 29, 2008)

The River of Tears is 6' and rising!


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## Eagle Mapper (Mar 24, 2008)

The hits keep coming. Stuck out on everything, holding out hope for Deso.


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

Strike out for both me and the wife on SJ, MS, MFS, Selway, Dino...waiting on Deso

But JUST got an email from one of our crew who got a June 23 MFS!!!!!!!!


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

rivh2o said:


> Here we go again. Bummer when I did not get a Yampa permit. 30 some odd years in a row... But then there it was a Middle Fork win. Yippy Kiyae!
> 
> All is good now


Sick. Stoked for you. Enjoy your trip!


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## SixPek (Jul 19, 2016)

*Middle Fork FTW!*

Our group scored a MFS permit 8/2! Late put-in so hoping the flows/snowpack holds up!

One gal from our group is on a plane down to the Futalafu. In the summer, she's on the Grand Canyon and 3 days after that, we launch for the Middle Fork.

Talk about a rafting year...dang.


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

SixPek said:


> Our group scored a MFS permit 8/2! Late put-in so hoping the flows/snowpack holds up!
> 
> One gal from our group is on a plane down to the Futalafu. In the summer, she's on the Grand Canyon and 3 days after that, we launch for the Middle Fork.
> 
> Talk about a rafting year...dang.


Proof that god lovers her and wants her to be happy...that, or karma


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## kayakingphotog (May 25, 2007)

My group scored a mid March Salt, a mid May San Juan, and a mid July Main Salmon permit. Waiting to see if others will step forward for our other choices. All in all Whoo Hooo. 

Once I find out about the Main Salmon details I would love to coordinate a turn the corner from the Middle to the Main. Been down both multiple multiple times however never been able to tie them together. 

If you need a safety kayaker for the Selway let me know. Yaked it twice and can provide raft support to boot!!

SYOTR


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## Mtnbuzzer (Feb 5, 2016)

Nubie Jon said:


> So..... Sitting on the Red Eye to Boston to visit my sick brother and I received the following email.....
> 
> Congratulations! We wanted to let you know the lottery drawing recently took place and you’ve been awarded a permit reservation at Dinosaur Green And Yampa River Permits on Tuesday July 21 2020.
> 
> Hell yeah!


I always wondered what a successful permit notice looked like. Never have, and still haven't been so lucky. Have a great trip.


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## Osprey (May 26, 2006)

Nubie Jon said:


> So..... Sitting on the Red Eye to Boston to visit my sick brother and I received the following email.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which river? That's pretty late for the Yampa


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## Nubie Jon (Dec 19, 2017)

Osprey said:


> Which river? That's pretty late for the Yampa


Gates of Ladore down the Green.


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## davbaker (Aug 4, 2013)

I woke up to 4 emails starting with "congratulations ....." for the Selway, MFS followed by the Main, and Hells Canyon. Then, I actually woke up and once again was skunked. Fortunately, others in our crew won a Salt (April) and a MFS (July). Can't complain!


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

Mtnbuzzer said:


> I always wondered what a successful permit notice looked like. Never have, and still haven't been so lucky. Have a great trip.



Shockingly I just won my first, 7/25 Main Salmon. Oh my.


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> Shockingly I just won my first, 7/25 Main Salmon. Oh my.


Mods, we need to change this person's username!!

Congratulations!! The Main is so awesome. I've run it twice, both launches the last weekend of June. Late July you should have mellow flows and hot weather.


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## 2tomcat2 (May 27, 2012)

Good on you, DidNotWinLottery!


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## tetondan (Jun 1, 2017)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> Shockingly I just won my first, 7/25 Main Salmon. Oh my.


Ya turd that was my first pick  . Have fun! 

Sadly I did not win anything this year. Still holding out for Deso though.


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## kayakingphotog (May 25, 2007)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> Shockingly I just won my first, 7/25 Main Salmon. Oh my.


Get a Bimini for the trip. Will not regret it!

https://www.riversombrero.com


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## almortal (Jun 22, 2014)

*New Rec.gov Lottery Policy*

Recreation.gov just posted a new official policy stating that anyone found gloating about the permits they won in what is clearly a commiseration forum thread will have said permits revoked and those permits will be reallocated to whoever writes the saddest self pity post.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

Adding insult to injury, they just had to send out all the rejection notices on Valentine's Day. Wah!


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## ptwood (May 4, 2004)

I was shut down yet again, but my wife got a June 1 Ladore, which is only 3 weeks after I get off the Grand


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

*Conspiracy Theories*

It seems like only a matter of time before we hear, "it's rigged!" as I've seen some folks imply on a FB rafting discussion. Here are my 2 cents:

My theory is that the system provides an incentive to the Recreation.gov contractor to get more people to enter the lottery (Contractor: "Hey look, we're getting record participation!") and the managing agencies welcome more entry fee revenue in these days of budget cuts. So the programmers have made it so easy to apply by just clicking on "next lottery" that the number of entries skyrockets, and the odds of winning a permit plummet so low that most of us didn't get permits. So those launches that we're not getting are likely going to some newbie that was applying for a Chama or San Juan permit for the family, then they just kept clicking away on the "Apply for Another" link until they'd put in apps for the Selway, Lodore, Main Salmon, Middle Fork, etc.

If anyone has any actual evidence of Recreation.gov being rigged, please come forward with it as we'd all like to know if that's the case. In the meantime, Let's hope folks won't mistake what appears to be an unintended consequence of the system, apparently designed to encourage participation, as some kind of nefarious plot against private boaters. And remember that the private-commercial allocations are pretty much carved in stone on these rivers so those launches are probably not being shifted over to the outfitters.

I expect as the season approaches we'll see: A) lots of cancellations when those folks start realizing their June 10 Middle Fork trip isn't going to be like a fishing float on the Smith or a SJ trip, and/or B) lots of posts from newbies looking for experienced boaters to join their trips.

And (it ain't gonna happen but) if they brought back the old paper mail-in applications with check payment the entries would drop to 1/4 of what they are now...

-AH


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## dsrtrat (May 29, 2011)

July 1976 when I first ran a western river (Gates of Lodore) first 50 Apple computer kits go on sale, no internet. US population 218 million. Pretty much called up and got a permit. 2020 US population estimated 333 million, everyone has a computer in their pocket connected 24-7. See a trend.


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## NoCo (Jul 21, 2009)

Andy I understand that there will always be commercials but to hog up most of the choice dates on the selway isn't fair.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

NoCo said:


> Andy I understand that there will always be commercials but to hog up most of the choice dates on the selway isn't fair.


I wasn't discussing whether the existing allocations are fair or unfair. My statement above was saying the private-commercial allocations are pretty much set in stone and that it's very unlikely the Recreation.gov system's being rigged to move private boater allocation over to the commercials. If private boaters are having our existing allocation shifted improperly to commercials, this should be discoverable with a FOIA request to the managing agency to get their launch check-in data. These data would show how many commercials and privates have launched on a given river during a season and thus whether the real allocation complies with the management plan allocation.

The other issue I raised is who is getting the dates already allocated for private boaters and why so few folks we know are winning the lotteries on rivers all around the West. I contend that the system's been made so easy to enter that people are entering all the lotteries who don't fully understand what they're getting into (high water MF?). This results in the lottery odds being even more stacked against those of us who are really interested, equipped, and experienced to be running those rivers. 

If you want to talk about the commercial-private allocation on a particular river, then please start a thread on the topic and give the stats on launches, dates, etc. Who knows - it may be the start of a successful case for getting commercial use reallocated to private boaters.

-AH


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## SherpaDave (Dec 28, 2017)

Andy H. said:


> Adding insult to injury, they just had to send out all the rejection notices on Valentine's Day. Wah!




Well, I thought it might work out when I told my wife in January I wanted a permit for Valentines Day. Unfortunately, she didn’t win anything either. So we commiserated our loss last night.


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## GS Dave (Jun 13, 2016)

Well...I got nothing.....but, friends (all different) got Yampa, San Juan, and Chama. Guess I am buying a lot of beer this year!


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## dport (May 10, 2006)

Tom Pierce said:


> No for Dino (Lodore). Eh, that's OK, I did the Yampa run last year and had a great time (late season/low water in an IK, fwiw). I tried to see if there was a way to sign up for a pre-season run via Lodore, e.g. late March in a drysuit, but coudn't see where that was even possible. Maybe I'll dig deeper into that.
> 
> -Tom


In march you can look for open dates, we generally pick up a permit in March and do the dry suit float. A great time still even if a bit cold out. Many years we have been the first group down the Gates. This year we will not make it as the core of the group will be on the grand in late March. Lodore is great any time of the year for sure.


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

NoCo said:


> Andy I understand that there will always be commercials but to hog up most of the choice dates on the selway isn't fair.


That just isn't true at all. There are 16 commercial launches and 62 privates on the selway every year and they never change. How they fall during the week is random. Look at the calendar. In fact, the first commercial launch date this year isnt until June 18.


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## villagelightsmith (Feb 17, 2016)

After a 40 year career w/NPS my father-in-law said NPS had become a police state.
When I started running, only the NPS at Grand Canyon cared who was on the river.
Charles Peterson was right. He said he was glad to have gotten out when he did.
As I look at rivers today, the old free ones are looking more and more encumbered with the trash of Government bureaucracies. Every bureaucrat wants to build his fiefdom. It's easier for them to climb a newly formed career ladder than to maintain an existing one. They get more career points for designing a new parking lot and fancy portapots than they will ever get for hiring a GS2 to put toilet paper in the old ones and empty the garbage cans.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

Wow, I can sure feel the love. Its nice to know how it feels to be on the receiving end of all that, uh, congratulating for once!


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## LJPurvis (Apr 12, 2017)

Andy H. said:


> It seems like only a matter of time before we hear, "it's rigged!" as I've seen some folks imply on a FB rafting discussion. Here are my 2 cents:
> 
> My theory is that the system provides an incentive to the Recreation.gov contractor to get more people to enter the lottery (Contractor: "Hey look, we're getting record participation!") and the managing agencies welcome more entry fee revenue in these days of budget cuts. So the programmers have made it so easy to apply by just clicking on "next lottery" that the number of entries skyrockets, and the odds of winning a permit plummet so low that most of us didn't get permits. So those launches that we're not getting are likely going to some newbie that was applying for a Chama or San Juan permit for the family, then they just kept clicking away on the "Apply for Another" link until they'd put in apps for the Selway, Lodore, Main Salmon, Middle Fork, etc.
> 
> ...


Andy,

I agree with what you state. I do not think the lottery or website is "rigged". They HAVE made mistakes in the past and released cancellations before the date and time stated on the website. But, for the most part, it has been fair.

What I struggle with (and I do not know how to fix it) is it IS easy to apply. And there are a lot of cancellations which turn into a free-for-all to try to get them; not lottery driven at all. I know, since I never get a lottery permit, but I usually can pick up a cancellation. The problem is the folks that don't normally raft but put in for a permit because they have a second cousin that rafts. They win but decide they cannot go AND they don't bother to cancel. I have talked with the rangers at Hells Canyon and the Middle Fork. Since recreation.gov took over they high a very high number of "no-shows". THAT is what frustrates me and it frustrates the rangers.

Add to that the fact that they no longer release the cancellations arbitrarily and it makes it even more difficult. I used to set my alarm clock for every hour and would have my laptop next to my bed. I would wake up every hour to see if any permits were released. Now they post them and it becomes a click free-for-all at 9:00A on Tuesdays or is it 8:00 on Mondays or??? They actually "accidentally" released them once about 10 minutes early. All of a sudden the permits started disappearing.

So, there is frustration. But it's not necessarily with recreation.gov; just with the situation in general.


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

LJPurvis said:


> there are a lot of cancellations which turn into a free-for-all to try to get them; not lottery driven at all. I know, since I never get a lottery permit, but I usually can pick up a cancellation. The problem is the folks that don't normally raft but put in for a permit because they have a second cousin that rafts. They win but decide they cannot go AND they don't bother to cancel. I have talked with the rangers at Hells Canyon and the Middle Fork. Since recreation.gov took over they high a very high number of "no-shows". THAT is what frustrates me and it frustrates the rangers.
> 
> Add to that the fact that they no longer release the cancellations arbitrarily and it makes it even more difficult. I used to set my alarm clock for every hour and would have my laptop next to my bed. I would wake up every hour to see if any permits were released. Now they post them and it becomes a click free-for-all at 9:00A on Tuesdays or is it 8:00 on Mondays or??? They actually "accidentally" released them once about 10 minutes early. All of a sudden the permits started disappearing.
> 
> So, there is frustration. But it's not necessarily with recreation.gov; just with the situation in general.


The GC follow-up lottery is as fair as possible. It takes some effort, but I would imagine there are proportionally fewer no-shows.

it's a flippin' tragedy that there are MF no-shows. Sad if there are high-water no-shows, but a tragedy if there are no-shows the rest of the year.

And August no-shows when they also don't offer cancellations? that's bullshit!


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

Andy H. said:


> So those launches that we're not getting are likely going to some newbie that was applying for a Chama or San Juan permit for the family, then they just kept clicking away on the "Apply for Another" link until they'd put in apps for the Selway, Lodore, Main Salmon, Middle Fork, etc.
> 
> 
> I expect as the season approaches we'll see: A) lots of cancellations when those folks start realizing their June 10 Middle Fork trip isn't going to be like a fishing float on the Smith or a SJ trip, and/or B) lots of posts from newbies looking for experienced boaters to join their trips.
> ...



I agree with a lot you have to say. However I have a bit of a different take. I get one lottery submission for my family of 4. Got the neighbor to go in with me one year, and they did go on a Deso cancellation permit with me. But they have not really seemed that into it (due to wife), so we go at it alone. However our chances are much diminished by huge parties of boaters that pool together and all submit lottery applications.( like my other neighbor, head of the grumpy old fart clan  ) I hear about these groups going on great trips each year this way. We got burned hard joining another group last year and have sworn that off joining other for now, especially if do not hold a permit. (they cancelled days before we were to leave town) So a bunch of noobs and small families like us may soak up a rare permit as I did this year, but those old fart, monster boater pools will take most of the wins. Maybe we will fit in with one eventually, but for now, they make it harder for us to pick up a family trip.


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## LJPurvis (Apr 12, 2017)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> I agree with a lot you have to say. However I have a bit of a different take. I get one lottery submission for my family of 4. Got the neighbor to go in with me one year, and they did go on a Deso cancellation permit with me. But they have not really seemed that into it (due to wife), so we go at it alone. However our chances are much diminished by huge parties of boaters that pool together and all submit lottery applications.( like my other neighbor, head of the grumpy old fart clan  ) I hear about these groups going on great trips each year this way. We got burned hard joining another group last year and have sworn that off joining other for now, especially if do not hold a permit. (they cancelled days before we were to leave town) So a bunch of noobs and small families like us may soak up a rare permit as I did this year, but those old fart, monster boater pools will take most of the wins. Maybe we will fit in with one eventually, but for now, they make it harder for us to pick up a family trip.


I do not fully understand your take. I too have a family of 4. We get two lottery submissions per river; I put in and my wife puts in. Why do you only get one?

I also have a group of friends I raft with. They all put in for the lottery. It is what rafters do. To call a group of like-minded friends putting in for a lottery the old fart, monster boater pools is lost on me. I view everyone that puts in as "outdoor rafting/kayaking enthusiasts" that want to get on the river just like you...just like me.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

I thought it was one lottery application per house hold.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

I guess all I can say is this... I've struck out on every permit I've ever applied for in a lottery but have picked up some cancellations here and there. The vast majority of my boating trips are jumping on an invite from strangers or friends. Its not really fair to judge every group based on one bad experience. I've never regretted going on a trip, but I'd say about 10% of the "Strangers" trips had some undesirable aspect to them that I was unhappy about to the level I wouldn't boat with certain people on the trip again.

The big groups of people pooling permits don't just appear out of nowhere... they start with people who don't know each other, have a great time on a trip, and decide to pool their resources. As often as not, the people who all do applications together strike out too...so its no guarantee.

That basically happened to my normal group of boaters this year(one friend got a MFS and a Lodore permit...but due to stuff that happened between application deadline and the lottery pick day is forced to put the MFS back for cancellation day)...so we are having to delve outside the group for a bunch of trips. Its cool... I'll just make some new boating friends and increase my chances of an invite in the future.

I can see some merit to Andy's theory... it is certain that Booz Hamilton whatever is NOT in this for anything but profit no matter what all the happy enviro slang BS they slather all over Rec.gov ... so it certainly benefits them to increase applications numbers. Heck, when I signed on, the front page of the website had a link to every river permit in the country and you could do your application for each one of them in the same transaction pretty easily. Definitely much more streamlined this year compared to previous years....and every application comes with a $6 charge that ONLY goes to them (and not to the resource). There is zero way that it costs them anywhere close to $6 per permit to process the applications and keep the website running... so I suspect that they are raking it in....gotta keep that $4 billion dollar profit margin up.

The upshot to us, as others have said, is that the odds just get worse and worse due to the increase in applications. Unfortunately, I don't see a clear way to change that easily... they aren't likely to want to put their cash cow back in its pen and I imagine they have anyone who could change or restrict how they run the business in their pocket.


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> I agree with a lot you have to say. However I have a bit of a different take. I get one lottery submission for my family of 4. Got the neighbor to go in with me one year, and they did go on a Deso cancellation permit with me. But they have not really seemed that into it (due to wife), so we go at it alone. However our chances are much diminished by huge parties of boaters that pool together and all submit lottery applications.( like my other neighbor, head of the grumpy old fart clan  ) I hear about these groups going on great trips each year this way.


So...good for them?




> We got burned hard joining another group last year and have sworn that off joining other for now, especially if do not hold a permit. (they cancelled days before we were to leave town) So a bunch of noobs and small families like us may soak up a rare permit as I did this year, but those old fart, monster boater pools will take most of the wins. Maybe we will fit in with one eventually, but for now, they make it harder for us to pick up a family trip.


You seem to be conflating two different complaints.


1. Big groups of people pooling for permits.
2. You ran into a group you didn't like.


Neither of which is a problem endemic to the Rec.gov lottery system. If you want a small group of 4 or 8, you're going to have worse odds than a group of 16 pooling trips. If that group of 16 all puts in for a 200-to-1 permit, they've got an 8% chance of getting a permit. If two adults in your family of four puts in, you have a 1% chance. It's not unfair--it's just that you don't want the big group.

Consider how "unfair" it is for someone to get a GC permit and then go for a solo trip. That's not an issue with the permit structure. Their odds were astronomical not being in a pool, but their permit is to do with it as they wish. (they'd have a 0.5% chance if it were 200:1 like my example above).

You trade off your desire for solitude and not boating with old farts for lower odds.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

MT4Runner said:


> Consider how "unfair" it is for someone to get a GC permit and then go for a solo trip. That's not an issue with the permit structure. Their odds were astronomical not being in a pool, but their permit is to do with it as they wish. (they'd have a 0.5% chance if it were 200:1 like my example above).


I have zero clout and no one who does has stepped up, but I've put the idea forward to have a separate lottery for single boat trips of 1 or 2 people and restrict them to small camps only (with the possibility to take up a small part of larger camp shared with a full size group in a pinch). The impact on the resource would be minimal for a solo boater and it would keep user days more utilized. I've also said that they should "collect" all the user days that aren't used and create new trips with them... i.e. once 16 slots go unused...create another trip that goes up in a followup lottery. I calculated it out a few years ago...and about 700 slots go unused every year.

There are certainly ways to make it more fair and more fully utilize the user days allotted without impacting the resource. I do kind of get the feeling GCNP doesn't really want them to be fully utilized though and are happy that not every trip is full.


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## Mtnbuzzer (Feb 5, 2016)

DidNotWinLottery said:


> Wow, I can sure feel the love. Its nice to know how it feels to be on the receiving end of all that, uh, congratulating for once!


Well, let's see how the 2021 Grand Canyon lottery goes. Still haven't drawn for that either. I keep telling myself this is the year.... Need any help on your MS trip? I can even help you drive there and back.


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## MT4Runner (Apr 6, 2012)

Electric-Mayhem said:


> I have zero clout and no one who does has stepped up, but I've put the idea forward to have a separate lottery for single boat trips of 1 or 2 people and restrict them to small camps only (with the possibility to take up a small part of larger camp shared with a full size group in a pinch). The impact on the resource would be minimal for a solo boater and it would keep user days more utilized. I've also said that they should "collect" all the user days that aren't used and create new trips with them... i.e. once 16 slots go unused...create another trip that goes up in a followup lottery. I calculated it out a few years ago...and about 700 slots go unused every year.
> 
> There are certainly ways to make it more fair and more fully utilize the user days allotted without impacting the resource. I do kind of get the feeling GCNP doesn't really want them to be fully utilized though and are happy that not every trip is full.


Yeah, that makes so much sense, the .gov will never do it!

I also get the sense they've also never been proponents of private groups for the reason that it's potentially more people they might have to rescue (not that they never rescue commercials, but theoretically a lower chance of that happening).

Similar rationale of the Salmon-Challis NF not reissuing August cancellations. If launches impact salmon, why issue launches at all? If all permit holders accepted their permit, you'd have that max resource impact anyway.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

Mtnbuzzer said:


> Well, let's see how the 2021 Grand Canyon lottery goes. Still haven't drawn for that either. I keep telling myself this is the year.... Need any help on your MS trip? I can even help you drive there and back.



Its not totally out of the question. I was putting it out there for a middle fork/ main combo hook up. But the chances of winning the lottery are far better then that I imagine  We have been debating the last few days, do we go just as the 4 of us or invite someone. Being from New Mexico does make some logistical sense.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

MT4Runner said:


> Yeah, that makes so much sense, the .gov will never do it!
> 
> I also get the sense they've also never been proponents of private groups for the reason that it's potentially more people they might have to rescue (not that they never rescue commercials, but theoretically a lower chance of that happening).
> 
> Similar rationale of the Salmon-Challis NF not reissuing August cancellations. If launches impact salmon, why issue launches at all? If all permit holders accepted their permit, you'd have that max resource impact anyway.


Yeah...certainly more handholding...but they also kind of bring it on themselves with the "we want people who have never gone down to have a chance first" stance too.

I think the Concessions companies get more cooperation mostly because of money and advocacy. The concessions companies have an association that lives and breaths advocating on behalf of the entire concessions community. Private boaters get two organizations that spend as much time or more bickering between themselves as they do actually advocating for private boaters. There have been a bunch of major decisions that needed to be made where GCPBA took one stance and RRFW took another and cancelled each other out.

Anyways...getting kind of off topic... as much as I wish I could just jump in and change things...I'm not in a position to do so. It does make one wish that Public Lands actually belonged to the public... I'm fairly moderate centrist guy...but that is one area I'd lean a bit more libertarian.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

villagelightsmith said:


> After a 40 year career w/NPS my father-in-law said NPS had become a police state.
> When I started running, only the NPS at Grand Canyon cared who was on the river.
> Charles Peterson was right. He said he was glad to have gotten out when he did.
> As I look at rivers today, the old free ones are looking more and more encumbered with the trash of Government bureaucracies. Every bureaucrat wants to build his fiefdom. It's easier for them to climb a newly formed career ladder than to maintain an existing one. They get more career points for designing a new parking lot and fancy portapots than they will ever get for hiring a GS2 to put toilet paper in the old ones and empty the garbage cans.


So what's your alternative to the permit systems we have in place that would also protect the places we love and still allow access?

Yeah, I'm not too thrilled about the fact there are lots of prime rivers I can only seldom boat but on the other hand, I kind of like it that when I do get on those rivers, I can pull into a camp in the afternoon and find nothing but a few footprints left by the group before mine, and have a relatively uncrowded experience in a special place. 

From the book, "Western Whitewater" the essay on Westwater Canyon states that by 1992 "...when the permit season extended only through September, more than 700 boaters launched on the first Saturday of October." Wow, launching on a busy weekend when the allowance is 125 people per day seems pretty crazy, what's it like with 700? And what happens to the campsites when there are so many people overrunning a stretch of river? 

If you've been boating since '70, that's 25 years longer than I have. We'd love to hear any ideas you've got that would improve on the current system.

Thanks,

-AH


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

Well... I'm not him and I haven't been boating for that long (only since the 90's)... but it seems to me that more public oversight and input would be good. Many agencies allow public comment, but for the most part its just a minor step on the way through a project that will more then likely get pushed through even if the general public is largely against it.

I think one other huge change is if BLM management, NPS management and other high and even mid level managers of land in the public trust were elected instead of appointed and had enforced term limits. That way, they were more accountable for their actions and might actually pay attention to what the users wanted.

Far too often, corporations and organizations with deep pockets get their way while the actual "owners" of the land (all of us) get pushed out. There is obviously still a problem with corruption among elected officials catering to lobbyists... but it would be much easier to deny someone a re-election than it is to punish or oust a manager who goes against the public interest (in the publics eye). I imagine most public lands managers probably believe they are doing things in good faith for the public interest, but I question whether that is just how they percieve it or whether its actually so.

From a permit and resource protection standpoint, its pretty obvious nothing is perfect...but the people on the ground, for the most part, are doing the best they can. Its the management that instructs and oversees and makes policies that I get frustrated with.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

Wow, this is almost edging on political.

Granted, things were different in the past. For better and worse. Easier access also included krap and toilet paper all over, eddies fouled with waste of fires and kitchen and peak weekend chaos. I don't wish to return to them days. Neither should the rivers.

Every time I start to resent the Feds and maybe a cozy relationship with commercials I remember the voting power of the Sierra Club/David Brower in preventing dams here-and-there(some failures:-(). They mobilized a generation to prevent the rape and pillage of rivers by grass roots community action. Many/most of the folks they mobilized were customers of commercial companies and their friends and congressmen.

And now, I should go back and read this full thread. I ignored it because weeping regarding permit applications is something I do every year at this time.

For now the only fix for yourself is to network and by networking you build the grassroots to keep our river flowing free and clean(and vote for non-R's(did I say that, I must have already had a beer. And that wraps back to my opening statement.)).


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## Auminor (Dec 16, 2019)

One thought is that application prices should be higher to promote more committed applicants. A permit fee should also be charged during application to include a steep cancellation fee.

As an example and to spur discussion:

1. Application fee $60 per river, non-refundable.
2. Permit fee paid at time of application of $600 - non refundable if not cancelled within 45-days. Full refund if not successful. No shows would not be able to re-apply for 2-years for that river.

A second lottery would be held for initial unsuccessful applicants who re-up for a second lottery for the canceled permits. Same criteria and rates as the first time with the cancellation period reduced to 10 days.

Some/many wouldn't like this, but it would increase the level of commitment and increase the success rate for those who are more serious about the sport.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

Auminor said:


> One thought is that application prices should be higher to promote more committed applicants. A permit fee should also be charged during application to include a steep cancellation fee.
> 
> As an example and to spur discussion:
> 
> ...


It would certainly lower the application numbers... but it would also exclude a ton of people who can't afford it or refuse to pay. I guess that is sort of the point. You must have deeper pockets then the rest of us.

To me...doing it the way you say is going to skew the people going down the river to the richer crowd...which I'm not cool with. People already throw a bunch of their hard earned money at lotteries they know they will not win.

There has to be a better way to make people take it seriously then raising fees to the silly and overly expensive levels you propose.


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## Auminor (Dec 16, 2019)

Electric-Mayhem said:


> It would certainly lower the application numbers... but it would also exclude a ton of people who can't afford it or refuse to pay. I guess that is sort of the point. You must have deeper pockets then the rest of us.
> 
> To me...doing it the way you say is going to skew the people going down the river to the richer crowd...which I'm not cool with. People already throw a bunch of their hard earned money at lotteries they know they will not win.
> 
> There has to be a better way to make people take it seriously then raising fees to the silly and overly expensive levels you propose.


Thanks for the reply; there are many valid points to this discussion, yours certainly being one of them. The numbers I used (only an example to solicit responses) are high to make a point. So what ideas are out there for a better way? 

Proof of boat/kayak ownership or river experience? 
Limit number of rivers an applicant can apply for in a given year?
Restrict prior successful applicants?
Ban no-shows from applying in following years?
Award bonus points to unsuccessful applicants?
Charge non-resident fees by state (I don't live in a state with any permit rivers, so I'm a non-resident by default)?
Other Ideas?


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

Auminor said:


> Thanks for the reply; there are many valid points to this discussion, yours certainly being one of them. The numbers I used (only an example to solicit responses) are high to make a point. So what ideas are out there for a better way?
> 
> Proof of boat/kayak ownership or river experience?
> Limit number of rivers an applicant can apply for in a given year?
> ...


If there was an easy answer they'd already be doing it. I've seen all of those options done on various rivers with varying success. Honestly... I think the best permit system out there is the Grand Canyon. It may still be hard to get a permit and they actively promote wanting people who have never gone down to be able to go before people who have... but they have pretty good statistics for no shows and unused launch dates.

I think making incentives for people to cancel permits well in advance when they know they won't use it is one way. Punishment for no shows is one way to do that, but combining that with favorable results a certain time before the launch date would help a ton as well. I see the punishment side a lot...but very rarely see encouragement to cancel permits so that others can use them. On the other hand, if you do pick up a last minute permit... I think there should be some support and understanding. I've seen a couple complaints about people who picked up a MFS trip less then a week before the launch date hoping they could make it happen but fail...and got the multi-year ban still. That seems harsh to me and should be treated differently then someone who booked it months in advance and cancels a week out.

Education about the run and what is involved is good and if done right will help ensure the right people apply. Perhaps requiring fully watching a video that lays out what is involved with the permit and what it will take to get down the river before you can complete your application would better ensure people know what they are applying for. Even easy runs like the San Juan or Desolation have other logistical difficulties that non-rafters or those new to the sport may not fully realize.

Its definitely not an easy problem to fix...and nicer gear and younger people being more inclined towards getting outdoors more and more, plus lifestyles being built around recreation is going to equate to more people wanting to enjoy rivers. It doesn't help when the main permit processing website is making it super easy to apply. I guess at the end of the day...I don't have a problem with more people applying as long as they are using the permits and respecting the resource.... and I get an invite sometimes. It would be kinda great if there wasn't a huge corporate company getting rich off it as well...but I don't have high hopes for that changing.

I haven't seen statistics for every river...but if a significant number of no shows or late cancellations that go unused are happening...clearly something needs to change with how the permit system for that river is managed.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

I agree, the Grand Canyon model is smart. I have never been down, put in my first application this year. Makes complete sense that those that have not been down before get an advantage over the "tribes" that go down every year. My neighbor goes every single year somehow. I know those that belong to groups that work together for permits hate it when I say that, but those that do not belong to groups deserve a chance as well. The point system helps to level the field a bit. And the re-roll lotteries kills off the "My fiber is faster then your Cable" at a 8:00AM nonsense.


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

Meh...there are 320 million Americans and most have some bit of disposable income. The advances in gear and especially the abundance of information and videos available at the click of a mouse means more of them want to, and are generally able to, experience not just river trips but all sorts of other "wilderness" activities.

I put the quotes around wilderness because I think we can all agree that a river trip on a permitted section is not a true wilderness experience, nor are most outdoor activities. Permits aren't going to get any easier to win unless there is a major demographic or cultural shift that leads to fewer people valuing outdoor recreation. I don't see that happening so long as more and more people keep relocating to urban areas.

It is what it is. Sure, I wish I could pick and choose when to run my favorite rivers but it simply isn't going to happen. The lottery system means that most everyone has an equal chance to get these amazing opportunities. For the last couple of years our group has been setting aside at least one week that we are going boating, somewhere...anywhere... no matter what. Once everyone has committed and has the time off work, we plan for an unpermitted section in the event that no one wins. Then we can troll for cancellations. Last year we had settled on a NF Flathead but picked up a Deso about 5 days out from launch. It turned out to be our best Deso ever. 24K CFS, perfect weather, and no mozzies. This year we have the exact opposite problem, 5 wins and no way we can do all of them and we haven't even gotten Smith results back yet. Statistics says we'll probably go another 10 years after this with no wins but I can guarantee we'll be boating every year.


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## cmharris (Apr 30, 2013)

If the FS collects more of the final floating fee upfront, when a successful lottery date is confirmed, March 15 for 4 Rivers for example, that would discourage no shows. But make it refundable if the permit holder cancels 21 days before launch to encourage compliance with published rules. This seems like an easy adjustment that would benefit everyone and have no negative financial ramifications for boaters since the fee is paid anyway.

And, I think it would help to charge more per river to apply for the lottery. It's too cheap and encourages way too many non boater applications.


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## nate s (May 5, 2005)

theusualsuspect said:


> That just isn't true at all. There are 16 commercial launches and 62 privates on the selway every year and they never change. How they fall during the week is random. Look at the calendar. In fact, the first commercial launch date this year isnt until June 18.


Umm, wrong. They used to be more dispersed throughout the season. I can remember years ago working for an outfitter, our third launch of the season was ~June 18. The fourth was a late July date. Now they're all clustered around primetime. I''m not sure when this change happened but it's been within the last 10 years or so.


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## jamesg (Sep 22, 2016)

Been putting some thought into this for years. It's actually pretty simple and I think a pretty fair way. I could code it up in a few weeks (lol probably not). Let me know if you can poke holes in the logic

All rivers go to a point system. Everyone starts with 1. Each year you put in for a permit and don't win one (or go on a trip) you get a point for that river (1 point = entry). Winning a permit or going on a trip sets your points back to 1. When you get to 10 points on a river, you have the option to guarantee one of your 10 selected dates for that year. *Key point:* You can only use to 1 - 10 point guarantee per year. 
Cancellations are released randomly within a 24 hour period of cancellation. *Edit: They would front load each users points with all previous entries on rec.gov and gcnp system to make it fairer for those that have been putting in for years. *

You could have a slick all rivers user dashboard that displays your current point status across all permits. 

GC could move to this system as well. 

Major hurdles to implementing something like this I see:

1) Getting all agencies on board
2) Creating a single river permit database
2) Negotiating with Commercial companies
3) Rangers would need to confirm all trip participants identity at the put in to maintain an accurate list of whos run what.

Thoughts?...Any higher ups at the Gov agencies are welcome to run with this idea


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## SherpaDave (Dec 28, 2017)

jamesg said:


> Been putting some thought into this for years. It's actually pretty simple and I think a pretty fair way. I could code it up in a few weeks (lol probably not). Let me know if you can poke holes in the logic
> 
> All rivers go to a point system. Everyone starts with 1. Each year you put in for a permit and don't win one (or go on a trip) you get a point for that river (1 point = entry). Winning a permit or going on a trip sets your points back to 1. When you get to 10 points on a river, you have the option to guarantee one of your 10 selected dates for that year. *Key point:* You can only use to 1 - 10 point guarantee per year.
> Cancellations are released randomly within a 24 hour period of cancellation. *Edit: They would front load each users points with all previous entries on rec.gov and gcnp system to make it fairer for those that have been putting in for years. *
> ...




The biggest challenge I see is that some rivers may not have enough private launches to accommodate everyone that reaches 10 points. I can’t see the commercials ever giving up any of their dates.


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## jamesg (Sep 22, 2016)

SherpaDave said:


> The biggest challenge I see is that some rivers may not have enough private launches to accommodate everyone that reaches 10 points. I can’t see the commercials ever giving up any of their dates.


Good point. Would need to do some math to calculate the odds of someone getting to 10. My thought was that it wouldn't happen very often. You or someone you know would win a permit or grab a cancellation before you get to 10.


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## SherpaDave (Dec 28, 2017)

Maybe. The ones that come to mind is MF & Selway. 
This would exclude trips outside of lottery windows, right?


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

Nate, 

I like your system - it seems pretty reasonable. Agree with Dave's point. Also, as long as you're not shifting allocation from commercials to private boaters, I don't see any need to negotiate with them. Anything that takes allocation away from commercials will face significant opposition and may reopen management plans. 

Recording the names and ID info from ALL trip participants would be a recordkeeping headache managing agencies may not want to deal with. That said, with current technology it should be easy for all participant info to be entered online for the group at some point before launching (3 days?) and then the ranger prints out the roster each day and checks participants' IDs against the group list, maybe even allow a few "time of launch" additions? 

It seems like it'd be easier to roll out one river or permit system at a time. Then once folks saw it was working, hopefully other rivers would follow suit.

Thanks for coming up with a possible solution!

-AH


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## dsrtrat (May 29, 2011)

Grand Canyon tracks ID's and compares it against the list, shouldn't be any reason why other agencies couldn't. On the grand you have your points reset before you get off the river. The one trip per year applies to commercial passengers as well but the NPS relies on the commercials to submit the information. 

On the Grand Canyon you have to submit a $400 ( $200 for small trips) non refundable deposit to secure your permit. I would be in favor of doing something similar on other rivers to reduce the no shows. Too many people just "put a permit in the bank" and don't care if they loose $25 or so, make it hurt and you would get more serious applicants. When the new Grand Canyon management plan was floated in 2006 it was first proposed that you paid the deposit up front to apply but was shot down due to legal issues.


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## Nubie Jon (Dec 19, 2017)

This is not new..... In Co we use it for hunting.... I would however say not points for all rivers but points.... May make your 10 point max non existent.


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## RikenRider (Nov 17, 2016)

*Wins and Losses*

All Losses
Rogue
Middle fork
Main Salmon
Green

It’s getting harder every year.


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## isever (Apr 29, 2012)

I am with the rejects, 3 rivers rejected, Yampa,Dino. San Juan.Anyone have tricks for cancelled permits game, always a mad game dates in out taken with mad frenzy.


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## SherpaDave (Dec 28, 2017)

I’m curious about point systems - Is it really an issue outside of the 4 Rivers? Yeah, I didn’t get any permits this year but outside of the 4 rivers I’ve had opportunities to go as someone I know seems to get a permit every few years.


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## Fly By Night (Oct 31, 2018)

Does anyone elses Rouge still showing pending in Rec.Gov?


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

SherpaDave said:


> I’m curious about point systems - Is it really an issue outside of the 4 Rivers? Yeah, I didn’t get any permits this year but outside of the 4 rivers I’ve had opportunities to go as someone I know seems to get a permit every few years.



Yampa and Ladore come to mind.


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## Auminor (Dec 16, 2019)

My Rouge also says results pending on recreation.gov.


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## Redside (May 10, 2013)

I used to be for points, but if you're a hunter that puts in for permits you know all too well about the term "point creep." 

Essentially every year the special permit that took 4 points the year before to draw took 5 or 6 the next. It just keeps going up, there are always more people putting in. Now imagine when you start the point game after it has been going 20 years? You'll get to go maybe when your 60-75 years old or most likely not at all. 

I know your scenario stops at 10 points, but I think the outcome would be similar. And they won't stop at 10, its just another revenue stream that they won't want to stop once they get it going, because if you want to play the point game, you'll have to pay.

As someone said above, just too damn many people putting in for these permits. They have the statistics up on this link below with updated 2020 numbers. In the last 5 years the Middle Fork went from 10,900 to 17,500 for people putting in! Doubt that's changing anytime soon.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/scnf/passes-permits/recreation/?cid=fsbdev3_029568


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

Is the hunting thing just a points system where you get to a certain number and are guaranteed a slot or is it like getting an extra raffle ticket?

The Grand Canyon lottery is like the latter. This is probably common knowledge, but the basics are that the more years you don't go, up to 5, the more chances you get to pull a date. If you've never been you start with 5. If you go, you drop to 1 point for next years lottery and get another point for every year you don't go. I think that works rather well and could be modified slightly to only account for people who actually apply and the first time you apply you get 1 point, but if you don't get a permit (and maybe if you don't go on another person permit...that is up for debate) you get another point for each year or lottery you apply to and fail to secure a permit. If you get a permit, you go back to 1. If you get a permit and no show...you get points deducted or reset to zero.

Seems like a fair way to do it. Everyone still has a chance but you get a better chance to win a permit the longer you strike out. It seems to work, even for those who go every year in the Grand. Looking at the stats, there are more then a few people who have pulled a permit for an amazing date with 1 point. Even with the max of 5 points a bunch of the days you still have a less then 1% chance of getting pulled...so its still steep odds. 

The person who invited me this year had 1 point, and 507 other people applied for the followup lottery for that day and she won. In total, over 1800 applications for that date alone.

All I gotta say is if you apply for the first week of shoulder season in September...you are crazy. If you win one of those dates... you are one lucky [email protected]#er. Most of the days in the last 3 weeks in September have 300 to nearly 500 people applying for each of those days.


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## theusualsuspect (Apr 11, 2014)

Put it this way. The way hunting preference points work in Colorado I have been putting in for preference points for my wife for 10 years. In another 10 years or so when she has north of 20+ I'll have a shot (GMU 201, this is akin to the grand canyon let's say). Currently for rifle the average preference points last year were 22 and that "creeps" up as stated earlier. I also put in for points for all of my children. In case they want to hunt someday, or I can convince them to shoot the animal while I watch them. 

The process is a death spiral of idiocy in my opinion.


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## Redside (May 10, 2013)

theusualsuspect said:


> Put it this way. The way hunting preference points work in Colorado I have been putting in for preference points for my wife for 10 years. In another 10 years or so when she has north of 20+ I'll have a shot (GMU 201, this is akin to the grand canyon let's say). Currently for rifle the average preference points last year were 22 and that "creeps" up as stated earlier. I also put in for points for all of my children. In case they want to hunt someday, or I can convince them to shoot the animal while I watch them.
> 
> The process is a death spiral of idiocy in my opinion.


Yep, exactly, the only problem is when you have 20 so will most people, might as well add on 10 more points. 

Each state is different, some states, like WY will have a specific pool for for the max point holders so that the people with the most points draw first until there are no permits for that unit. You would think it would keep the max points down, but there are not enough permits. That's where the point creep comes in last year it took 4 this year it took 5. They also have a % of permits that is random so anyone can win. Montana is different they just square your points everyone in the same draw. 

I wonder if they ever thought about moving some permits to a small group like the Grand does. Right now you can take up to 24 people on the MF. Why not take 1 or 2 permits per day and make them a small group of 8 max and turn 1 permit in to 3. They're ok with 24 people per permit, why not triple the permits with the same amount of people. Non commercial only of course. Who wants to take 24 people anyway, what a nightmare. Maybe cut down on the number of nights or make them stay at small camps so you keep people spread out. 

There's probably not an answer other than to make lots of friends that apply or have lots of money to buy a commercial spot.


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## Nubie Jon (Dec 19, 2017)

Redside said:


> I wonder if they ever thought about moving some permits to a small group like the Grand does. Right now you can take up to 24 people on the MF. Why not take 1 or 2 permits per day and make them a small group of 8 max and turn 1 permit in to 3. They're ok with 24 people per permit, why not triple the permits with the same amount of people. Non commercial only of course. Who wants to take 24 people anyway, what a nightmare. Maybe cut down on the number of nights or make them stay at small camps so you keep people spread out.
> 
> There's probably not an answer other than to make lots of friends that apply or have lots of money to buy a commercial spot.


The old Moneyball Theory! That actually sounds like a cool idea. Instead of listing the number of permits list the number of people and hold people to there "intended group size" during the lottery.


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## zbaird (Oct 11, 2003)

Not enough camps on the MF for that. They'd have to make some new small camps. The number in the group doesn't really take away from the experience like group after group floating by /competing for springs etc does. They do limit your number of days you can spend based on group size so it does encourage smaller groups if you want to stay longer.

As for whoever it was that asked about hunting, you get a point for a species every year that you put in but don't draw that species. Deer, elk, bear and pronghorn you accumulate points and highest points for a specific GMU (CO is divided into Game Management Units)get the tags first. Some GMUs are managed as quality units. These units have few tags allotted and chances are good that if you draw you will see lots of animals, few hunters and have a good chance at a nice mature male. Those units are currently (and rising) in the 18-24 point range. Other units are units of opportunity they call them. Shitloads of tags ($$$ for the state) given out and less animals per sq mile. Chances of harvesting mature males are slim because people operate on a "kill the first legal animal" system because animals are hard to come by. If you pass on a small legal animal you may not see another all week. I have given up on the big boy units as I am a meat hunter (antlers taste like shit) and I put in for low to mid grade units that I can draw every couple/few years. Its a nice balance of being able to go but not be inundated with hunters. I am not afraid to get off the road so I do pretty well. They say you lose 50% of hunter one mile from a road and 75% after 2. Got a pretty damn nice deer this year with my bow. Didn't draw elk, hopefully next year.(53% chance with one point). The worst of the worst is the over counter units. Chances are you will see more hunters than animals, tags are unlimited in number but are only good for certain GMU's. You either have to get lucky or get your ass WAY away from a road.

Bighorn, mountain goat and moose the first three years you get points just to play the game, but zero chance of drawing. Fourth year you are 3-0 and have one ticket in the pot. Next year 3-1 and you get 2. It is a straight up raffle style. Some guys are 3-20+ and haven't drawn but guys that are 3-1 have. If the deer/elk/pronghorn keep going the way they are with point creep I see them moving towards that same concept of an actual lottery/raffle instead of most points wins. I can see both sides of it. I hate to see a 3-1 guy draw when gramps is 3-22 and only has a few more years where he can even go chase a mountain goat. But if no one can even think about getting a bighorn until they are 50, and that is if dad started putting in for you at 12 years old and paid the $100 a year to do so every damn year, that sucks too.

Just like rafting, we have too many damn people around.


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## whiskey_river (Mar 2, 2015)

At least in the hunting tag world you get a point for your money and a better chance the next year. Rafting lotteries just take your money with nothing to show for it. Better luck next year! Oh wait, probably not. 

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Mountain Buzz mobile app


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## LJPurvis (Apr 12, 2017)

I don't know if there is any "magic" to fix the lottery and make it better.

I don't want to make it some elitist sport that costs a lot. I know this may not work for most but I would suggest $100 - $200 to put in for a permit.
- If you do not draw, you are given back the money less $10 for administration fees.
- If you draw and cancel, you are given back the money less $10 for administration fees.
- If you draw and you do the trip, you are given back the money less $10 for administration fees.
- If you do draw and don't cancel and don't show up, you lose the money and cannot enter the following year.

I also think that the cancellations can go back into the lottery like the GC. They already have your $10. Just send out an email like the GC does and draw 3 days later.

Put some skin in the game. Putting in and losing $6.00 isn't a risk. Everybody's 3rd cousin that knows somebody with a boat enters. I know of a BUNCH of folks that do not have rafts but put in every year because they have friends with boats. Yet I have never seen them on the river. They will put in with an intention of maybe going if they draw. But investing $6.00 doesn't hurt them so they do it.

I just don't know a good answer.


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