# permit success rates



## Smoregon (Aug 14, 2017)

Is there someplace on recreation.gov or anywhere else where you can see the number of applicants versus permits granted for a river by any given day?


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## Wadeinthewater (Mar 22, 2009)

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd532539.pdf

You're welcome. Invite me if you win.


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

So next time they talk about permitting a river you like to run, remember that means that they are trying to force you out and themselves in. 

Only 4 trips allowed per day makes for a pretty nice, quiet river run for all the government workers who come up with some boondoggle reason that it is their job to run that river. Like counting some kind of minnow, measuring trees and rocks by the river, etc.


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## garystrome (Jan 6, 2007)

*Laura and the daughters on the grand*

Yeah...like Laura Bush, their two daughters and 40 secret service agents waiting in line for 10 years to get their GC permits.


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## The Mogur (Mar 1, 2010)

garystrome said:


> Yeah...like Laura Bush, their two daughters and 40 secret service agents waiting in line for 10 years to get their GC permits.


I'm not sure what your point is. I was on the wait list for 17 years, finally getting my number down to three digits--and then they did away with the wait list in favor of the lottery.


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## markhusbands (Aug 17, 2015)

The Mogur said:


> I'm not sure what your point is. I was on the wait list for 17 years, finally getting my number down to three digits--and then they did away with the wait list in favor of the lottery.


I think the point is that the assertion that permits are being doled out to government workers is an unfounded smear.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

ColoradoDave said:


> So next time they talk about permitting a river you like to run, remember that means that they are trying to force you out and themselves in.
> 
> Only 4 trips allowed per day makes for a pretty nice, quiet river run for all the government workers who come up with some boondoggle reason that it is their job to run that river. Like counting some kind of minnow, measuring trees and rocks by the river, etc.


Maybe it's different in CO but I've ran the MFS, Main and Lower many times and have seen a gov trip one day out of all my days on the river.


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## markhusbands (Aug 17, 2015)

Conundrum said:


> Maybe it's different in CO but I've ran the MFS, Main and Lower many times and have seen a gov trip one day out of all my days on the river.


Thing is, if someone is on official business, whether it be a river patrol or some scientific purpose, they don't need a permit, so they don't compete for scarce permits with the public. And if a government employee isn't on official business, they DO have to get a permit, and they face the same odds as everybody else. I can't say there has never been a case of cheating, but I don't know of one, and if it was common practice, I would know.


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## Electric-Mayhem (Jan 19, 2004)

No...its not any different. I've run down through Dinosaur a bunch and have never seen any science trips or rangers even. I did talk to a ranger that had gotten off an enforcement/training run the day before earlier this year, but I'd say that was part of doing his duties.

Most of who you see down there is predominantly commercial trips followed by private trips. Government workers are definitely not stealing trips as far as I can tell.


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## markhusbands (Aug 17, 2015)

To atone for thread hijack, here's the 2016 San Juan lottery results. 

https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/f...anjuanriver_lottery-statistics_01.14.2017.pdf


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

Yeah, I was just being polite. If you think fed employees are stealing private permits, you need to slowly step away from the tinfoil.


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

Nobody with a metal badge or a sign that said government, huh ?

He was being sarcastic. Laura Bush didn't wait for 10 years to paddle the Grand Canyon, she showed up unannounced and poached it in plain sight of everyone with people bending over backwards to accommodate her. Treated her like a queen. Same as all the other tourists that pay the fee and don't care to get mooned, shown tits by, smell, or otherwise negatively interact with the riff raff private boaters in any way, shape or form.

The naivety on website forums in general is amusing because the participants are all looking for some answer, or they wouldn't post at all, but when the answer they want is presented to them, they don't see it. 

A saying I keep going back to ;

Some people seem to make things happen, <--- Government
Some people seem to watch things happen, <--- Sheeple
But some people always wonder what happened. <--- Stupid People and Animals


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

The Mogur said:


> I'm not sure what your point is. I was on the wait list for 17 years, finally getting my number down to three digits--and then they did away with the wait list in favor of the lottery.


Seems like there should be a little more to that story...


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

Maybe you just have an unsightly ass or tits or smell bad. I say hi to the guides, smile and waive to their guests, maybe chuckle at a stupid joke and get back to my time on the river. I help the guides at the ramp and they usually help me. When the guests aren’t looking, I’ll toss a guide a beer and a sweep driver a J. 

Other than the ramps and Donna at Indian Creek, I’ve seen one badge in hundreds of days of private trips on permitted rivers. Made sure I didn’t smoke anything in front of him, had my tag on my boat, my fishing license in my PFD and my barb was pinched. He smiled and asked where we were camping. I told him and then mentioned it was carne asada night and extended an invite to swing by if he was in the neighborhood. Never saw him again. Maybe I’m lucky. 

My system works for me. I hope yours works for you.


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## jpbay (Jun 10, 2010)

ColoradoDave said:


> Nobody with a metal badge or a sign that said government, huh ?
> 
> He was being sarcastic. Laura Bush didn't wait for 10 years to paddle the Grand Canyon, she showed up unannounced and poached it in plain sight of everyone with people bending over backwards to accommodate her. Treated her like a queen. Same as all the other tourists that pay the fee and don't care to get mooned, shown tits by, smell, or otherwise negatively interact with the riff raff private boaters in any way, shape or form.
> 
> ...


 Did you see this happen?


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## dirtbagkayaker (Oct 29, 2008)

ColoradoDave said:


> Only 4 trips allowed per day makes for a pretty nice, quiet river run for* all the government workers who come up with some boondoggle reason *that it is their job to run that river. Like counting some kind of minnow, measuring trees and rocks by the river, etc.


Every now and then I stumble on the someone who has attained a greater intelligence that I can not conceive and I feel compelled to beg, no plead, even pay for your wisdom. 

O Please Mr. ColoradoDave his excellency, explain to me a "Government Worker" that falls under the category of "All Government Workers." How I obtain said "Govy Permit - for any permitted river." 

I would be happy to invite you once I receive this permit you speak of. With my "Govey Worker Privilege" and "your extreme intelligence privilege" add in my "white privilege" divided by the infinite pain of all the Buzzards who have stood in owe of white water privilege, we could mathematically take over the Buzz and I could enslave 10 buzzards to treat us like kings for 7 days per permit. 

This is not the time to be selfish, think about the little buzzards we could help over the next 20 years. This is much bigger than me and you. Let's do this! 

Stay Tuned ColoradoDave, Stay tuned.....


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

Good one. Sarcasm is a good tool to make a point without ruffling anyone's feathers.

I admit I was overly sarcastic as well.

My main point is that the governing forces involved, at some level, such as the BLM, NPS, USFS, EPA upper management levels do not want private boaters on the rivers. Private boaters are unpredictable and uncontrollable as opposed to Commercial trips where all the rules are more closely followed, more easily enforced, and who have more to lose from violations. Counting minnows is only the excuse to limit visitation by policy and take a nice ride on the river, not to take available permit spots.

Merely watching that end game progress will not stop it from happening. The private permits will just slowly dry up over time. I think I would consider the 2017 Middle Fork Salmon River Lottery Demand by Date above already dried up with just 4 permits per day and no way to know the methodology to dole out those 4 permits.

Look at Glenwood this year. Private boaters were shut out of the river for days while commercial boaters were allowed to continue as normal because a few minutes of Bridge work were being done miles downstream. An illegal act that went un-challenged. What was their rational for doing that ? Private boaters are unpredictable and uncontrollable and can't be counted on to not get a bridge through the head.

Sarcastic disclaimer : No rare minnows died during the construction process.

Also, the only record I could find RE : Laura Bush's visit is that it was unannounced and her quote : "I know that certainly the Grand Canyon is very, very strict, if you go on a river trip through the Colorado River and hike out, on the number of outfitters that can be there"


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## garystrome (Jan 6, 2007)

*Federal Government Privilege*



markhusbands said:


> I think the point is that the assertion that permits are being doled out to government workers is an unfounded smear.


*
Mark....You are absolutely correct. There is no reason to degrade all government workers with the actions of some federal workers. Laura didn't have to wait in line....she didn't have to show the puppies......she did what all fed employees do, exercise their god given aristocratic privilege. Further more, a government jet shuttled the contingency to from the affair in style and comfort.


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## Willie 1.5 (Jul 9, 2013)

I would like to see the evidence behind all of these assertions. 
Links to the preferred status of government employees, Laura Bush, Federal agencies that don't want people using the resource, etc, etc.
I won't hold my breath...


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## Grifgav (Jun 20, 2011)

ColoradoDave said:


> Merely watching that end game progress will not stop it from happening. The private permits will just slowly dry up over time. I think I would consider the 2017 Middle Fork Salmon River Lottery Demand by Date above already dried up with just 4 permits per day and no way to know the methodology to dole out those 4 permits.
> QUOTE]
> 
> Would help if you even knew how the MFS permit allocation works. It isn't a blanket 4 permits per day for private boaters. It is 7 launches per day divided between private and commercial boaters. Some days it is 4 and 3 one way or the other, some days it is 5 private 2 commercial. Allocations is, and has been as far back as I can find, approx. 56% of launches to privates and 44% to commercial. And although demand has increased significantly, supply has not decreased (or increased). The number of permits has held steady as far back as I can find online. The methodology of allocating those permits is published as well, although I must concede that we, as private boaters, have no way of verifying that the published methodology is being followed.
> ...


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

The only issue I've seen in 17 odd years of applying was 2015 when the deadline for submissions allowed people to apply after the deadline. Other than that, just wish fewer people applied. If I really wanted to win a permit, I'd pick one of those days that typically has 8 applicants for four permit. My birthday is late June so I always pick the same MFS day.


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

Grifgav said:


> Would help if you even knew how the MFS permit allocation works.


What is the root way to access that data ? Without using links straight to it ? Are similar data available for other rivers ? In other states ? Any year ?
Your numbers show both Private and Commercial broken out, but are you suggesting the numbers posted in the 2nd post for 2017 are Private only ? , or was it 7 total in your data from 2011 and now it is either 4 Private, or 4 divided up between the 2 in the 2nd posts data ? That 2nd post's data page does not specify one way or the other. I'd like to compare Apples to Apples. Get it into some context.
https://www.fs.usda.gov then what ? https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet is an invalid URL so no way to track it down that way. Dead end searching USFS website for FSE_DOCUMENTS either.


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## ColoradoDave (Jun 3, 2010)

Here's Princess Diana finally rafting the Colorado after waiting 10 years for I-70 to be completed in Glenwood Canyon because she refused to pay for a Commercial trip.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

ColoradoDave said:


> What is the root way to access that data ? Without using links straight to it ? Are similar data available for other rivers ? In other states ? Any year ?
> Your numbers show both Private and Commercial broken out, but are you suggesting the numbers posted in the 2nd post for 2017 are Private only ? , or was it 7 total in your data from 2011 and now it is either 4 Private, or 4 divided up between the 2 in the 2nd posts data ? That 2nd post's data page does not specify one way or the other. I'd like to compare Apples to Apples. Get it into some context.
> https://www.fs.usda.gov then what ? https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet is an invalid URL so no way to track it down that way. Dead end searching USFS website for FSE_DOCUMENTS either.


If only there was an internet search tool that aggregated data and gave you the most pertinent sources first. It would also be easier if there were USFS and BLM stations in charge of those rivers and those stations had phone numbers that led to friendly ranger staff that would be happy to talk to you about such things. I doubt there are any rangers that are willing to do that because they're already out on the rivers using our permits. 

Seriously...that info is all on the .gov websites and I've had some very pleasant conversations with the rangers who know the most about this stuff that I help to pay their salaries just like most of us do.


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## garystrome (Jan 6, 2007)

*Journalistic Standards*



Willie 1.5 said:


> I would like to see the evidence behind all of these assertions.
> Links to the preferred status of government employees, Laura Bush, Federal agencies that don't want people using the resource, etc, etc.
> I won't hold my breath...


 *
There you go again Willie....attempting to apply journalistic standards to propaganda rag. How about going over to the dynalite page and asking for proof?


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## dsrtrat (May 29, 2011)

Administrative trips in Grand Canyon are not counted as part of the user days or permits for either commercial or private trips so you are wrong when you assert otherwise regarding Laura Bush's trip. Do you know for a fact that it was a administrative trip and not commercial?
I happened to be on the river when Al Gore did a trip when he was in office and ran into his group twice. He was on a commercial oar trip paid for by Al not the taxpayers. 
There was one 22 foot snout from the park service and it didn't have 40 secret service people on it, just a couple of burley guys you wouldn't want to mess with, and the Park service running the boat. They in no way impacted our trip, in fact for security reasons went out of their way to avoid other groups. We saw parked upstream of Tapeats waiting for us to leave and again at Matkat when we were again just pulling out. At Matkat they had two IK's running point to check the area. We saw no helicopters or other security forces.


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

Yes, the link in the second post of this thread are private trips only. So when you see the number 4, 4 private trips launched that day. Commercial trips are not part of the lottery. On the MFS, that means either 3 or 4 commercial trips are launching alongside the private trips. The Selway is a little different. Where is says 0, that means that was a commercial launch day because only one launch is available total.

Draw odds are all over the board. On the MFS in 2017, looks like draw odds ranged from 1-66%. Funny thing about snowpack and weather...if you wanted to go last year and don't mind high water, you could have gone. The typical popular dates had so many cancellation due to high flows, that permits went unused.

I try not to post about things I don't know about too much so I can't comment on permitted rivers outside of the four rivers lotto but I would assume a lot of the rules are the same but with different numbers of permits available.


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## garystrome (Jan 6, 2007)

*We saw no helicopters....*



dsrtrat said:


> Administrative trips in Grand Canyon are not counted as part of the user days or permits for either commercial or private trips so you are wrong ......
> *
> We saw no helicopters or other security forces.[/QUOTE partial]*
> * Soooo ... As I understand the gest of this thread. If you want to Pork the Dog, then do an Administrative Trip.
> ...


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## Hooter (May 29, 2016)

garystrome said:


> dsrtrat said:
> 
> 
> > Administrative trips in Grand Canyon are not counted as part of the user days or permits for either commercial or private trips so you are wrong ......
> ...


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## garystrome (Jan 6, 2007)

No disrespect to the Rangers. They are dedicated folk living with a dream gig.
However their superiors are fixated with the money. The commercial industry offered a constant source of revenue while the privates wanted a cheap raft trip. If we are to flip the model in favor of private trips, the money must be paramount and center.
Bureaucrats can be replaced; Business models can be revised; Studies can be updated. The park belongs to the people.....until Trump sells it.


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