# Did the Ark already peak ??



## kayakfreakus (Mar 3, 2006)

I was kinda wondering the same thing. It was fairly chilly up there this weekend so I see that affecting it. You could see your breathe in the morning, and never got much about 50's, when you did get a glimpse of the hills seemed to be some fresh dust up top. The river seemed to steadily drop each day we were there.

Not much snow in surrounding peaks in the valley, wonder how the headwaters up towards Leadville look.....


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## GoodTimes (Mar 9, 2006)

My guess is yes......unfortunately. Although, I think we'll see it come back up.....how high?? who knows.......it's been colder and rainy.


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## jmalefyt (Apr 23, 2009)

I don't think there is any way it will get back up there. Unless the colligates erupt as volcanoes and melt all the existing snow at once...


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## Snowhere (Feb 21, 2008)

It is snowing in Fairplay and anyplace high right now. In BV it is raining and only 44 degrees. The Ark will rise again once it warms up again as this cold spell has been going on for 4 days with more days to come. I am seriously watching big heavy flakes fall outside my office. It looks like I made the right desision to take the Audi over the motorcycle today!


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## KSC (Oct 22, 2003)

It looked to me like there was still a lot of snow up there. Seems like every year around this time someone starts questioning whether or not we've peaked and inevitably most people say yes, and then a hot spell comes along and flows spike again. Not sure if it's a peak or not, but my bet is flows will make a good climb back up before the end of the season on the Ark.

I think a lot of the recent fluctuation has to do with artificial controls.


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## ckspaddler (Sep 25, 2008)

*not quite yet...*

due to the cold weather, the snow has momentarily stopped melting. The ark has dropped about 800 cfs in the past 4 days. Right now, it is pounding snow in the upper drainage, so we may actually be repairing our snowpack. My guess is that whenever the sun comes back, the new snow will melt, and hopefully bring the ark back up to peak flows. keep in mind that we are having an early year, so who knows what will happen


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

I love this type of talk. We need to be sitting around a bar while doing it though...My guess is that the Ark will come back up quite a bit but maybe not as high as it already got. Super hard to predict on the Ark because most of us have no idea when water users are timing deliveries during the run off. This is similar to what happened last year but we don't have as much snowpack this year. Whatever snow we are getting right now in the high country will not likely add a ton of length to the run off, but the cold temps are just what we needed to slow things down. When it gets warm again we will see another spike but, I am betting that by FIBArk week we are on the way down.


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## DanOrion (Jun 8, 2004)

I live for this shit. I'll bet you my next beer that we'll see peak in June.

Recent runoffs, along with this year (gaged in Salida):










...and recent snowpack in the Arky basin:
ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/basinplotark09.gif

That was a pretty good gush in late May, but I'm hopeful that more is on the way.


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## UserName (Sep 7, 2007)

But when will the south rise again?


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## Ricky NM (Jun 28, 2008)

Just drove Indy on Sunday and there was a fair amount of snow left, but it was red with dust... It will spike again, I'm sure, but I think it will be in a few days and then it will come down fast.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

If it ever quits raining it may come up again... Talked with some of the water folks the other day and it looks like the Ark should run 700 until Aug 15th..

Harv it is time to get in some Ark creekin... Clock is tickin on Clear she is down to 170.... If it gets above 200 again you should come up and bring some of them salida playboatin types along.... Or if they start pumpin up at lake again I would rather go up there..... Don't worry I have a couple of extra burns and a m3 in the shed as I know most boaters from saliva dont seem to own a creek boat...... 

Sorry it must be the pimp in me that is talkin shit this AM.....


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## WesternMD (Dec 5, 2003)

Thanks to all for the input!

JV - I'll be out in the Valley June 15-18! Hope to hook up with ya'll. It's been years since I've been in the Valley. Shoot me a quick email, I'm getting a group of the "old" BJ dudes together on the 15th.......Shane, Campy, my brother, Ned Stitt.
captainpanic247atyahoodotcom
Topher


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

RDNEK said:


> If it ever quits raining it may come up again... Talked with some of the water folks the other day and it looks like the Ark should run 700 until Aug 15th..
> 
> Harv it is time to get in some Ark creekin... Clock is tickin on Clear she is down to 170.... If it gets above 200 again you should come up and bring some of them salida playboatin types along.... Or if they start pumpin up at lake again I would rather go up there..... Don't worry I have a couple of extra burns and a m3 in the shed as I know most boaters from saliva dont seem to own a creek boat......
> 
> Sorry it must be the pimp in me that is talkin shit this AM.....


The funny thing is I don't have a creek boat anymore but not because I have been playboating so much...all wildwater for me these days. I am down for a Clear Creek run or Upper lake to brains depending on the flow. Keep me in the loop.


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## WesternMD (Dec 5, 2003)

What's up Mike!! Hope to run into you while I'm out visiting! I'd love to talk to you about the Holtwood project and all.


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

WesternMD said:


> What's up Mike!! Hope to run into you while I'm out visiting! I'd love to talk to you about the Holtwood project and all.


Hey Topher. Don't know when you are coming out but swing by my office in Salida, top of the WW Park, and lets catch up.

It is looking more likely that the peak was back in May, about as early as I can remember. We are down under 3 inches of water in the snowpack and we have not had a warm day around here since first two weeks of May, literally. The run off has slowed ever since it cooled off around the 3rd week of May but I am thinking we just never had another good warm spell while there was enough snowpack to cause another spike. 

If it gets hot I bet the river comes up a little, but overall I am thinking we are done. On the positive note we have had a ton of moisture and I am hoping that will help keep the bottom from falling out. Weird run off this year. Anyone else have a theory?


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## DanOrion (Jun 8, 2004)

I think you're right. Hey, at least we all got some good high water May days.


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## master of disaster (Apr 6, 2009)

so, the boss says I can't take my two PFD'd labs down browns because it is to dangerous. the dogs and I are on a 14ft cat, they've done the upper c from pumphouse to dotsero at 3500 no problemo.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

master of disaster said:


> so, the boss says I can't take my two PFD'd labs down browns because it is to dangerous. the dogs and I are on a 14ft cat, they've done the upper c from pumphouse to dotsero at 3500 no problemo.


First off, that has nothing to do with the Ark having peaked or not...the upper C and Brown's have very different characteristics, mainly the upper C is super easy. I see people take their dogs down Brown's all the time, I guess it would depend on your familiarity with it and your ability to manuever your craft.

Mike, I think you are absolutely right. If we get some sunny warm days in a row soon, we might see another small spike, otherwise it's going to continue to slowly fade...strange season indeed, started running the Ark in feb. this year with the early releases, and it looks like the peak was May 19 or 20th on LC, CC, Chalk Creek and SF Ark.


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

Yeah I think at this point I would be stoked with some weather worthy of shorts and flip flops and hope that it stays over 1000 until July 1. I am not complaining. We have certainly endured way worse seasons than this one has been.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

I dont think that we will be paddlin 3,000 cfs on the numbers in July like last year but I think we will see another peak... 

First they are holding back water right now for some reason......... Both clear and twin have a higher inflow than outflow???? Second reason is that I have been scoutin for a deer tag and there is still a bunch of snow up high... 

Maybe they are holdin some water for fibark week - I will bet a 12 er that the ark will be 1600+ for at least part of that weekend (in salida) - any takers???

I will also bet a or another 12er that Lake will get over 1150 again or higher than the ark in the #'s is right now... 

Come on now lets have some fun... Any takers on my bets???


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## jmalefyt (Apr 23, 2009)

We've had our peak. There's no way it will get above what we already had. Sorry RDNEK it looks like the ark will be at 300cfs by mid July!


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

NEK I agree that it is going to come up a little if it ever gets warm but I think we have seen the peak. It is not going to get over 2500 again.


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## jeffy (Sep 17, 2004)

jmalefyt said:


> We've had our peak. There's no way it will get above what we already had. Sorry RDNEK it looks like the ark will be at 300cfs by mid July!



Hey! no need for negative talk. Let it snow. This is, after all, what everyone claims it was like, "Back in the day" Snowin in June! 

I'm more familiar with the Poudre. Though I'm not sure we'll see a long peak, I think we're in for a flush in the next few weeks. So many unknowns..........

Cheers to long seasons.


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## Rhynocerous (May 19, 2009)

Been fishing between Salida and Carbondale recently. Flow has been going down for sure, but it's been cold and cloudy.


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## Rhynocerous (May 19, 2009)

Whoops. Too much beer, not checking typing. Fishing between Salida and Coaldale.


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## kahuna (Mar 3, 2004)

So do ya'll think they will still have summer releases thru the end of july or will it just have whatever natural flow there is left. If no releases we might have to change our time to go out. Thanks for any info.


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## Snowhere (Feb 21, 2008)

Jeus, the water is still over a grand and people think the sky has fallen! Baring severe drought (it has been raining tons, my lawn is green and happy), we will have minimum 700 until August 15. It is not guaranteed, but is a unwritten agreement for the commercial river runners. So relax, I know I will be boating for 2 more and most likely 3 more months at least!


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

Snowhere said:


> Jeus, the water is still over a grand and people think the sky has fallen! Baring severe drought (it has been raining tons, my lawn is green and happy), we will have minimum 700 until August 15. It is not guaranteed, but is a unwritten agreement for the commercial river runners. So relax, I know I will be boating for 2 more and most likely 3 more months at least!


it actually is written its called the Voluntary Flow Program and it is backed up by AHRA's lease on 10,000 af of water in Twin Lakes. We will have the normal augmentation through August 15th. 

P.S. the original question was have we peaked not how long we are going to have water. I am standing by my we have peaked vote. I have seen no compelling evidence to the contrary despite RDNEK's unreliable, Crown Royal tinged, deer scouting observations.


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Crown Royal???

Man harv you should know I am a cheap date and beam is all I need!!!

Goin over to the rope for another right now!!!

They are movin 75k acr ft in the tunnel and there is no way that they moved that much water yet!!!

Lake will run 1100 again!!! 

Drunkem post... Take it for what it for what it is...


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## Ed Hansen (Oct 12, 2003)

Magic 8-ball says:

"Signs point to yes".


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

I think there is a good chance you are right RDNEK, there is enough snow left that with augmentation through the tunnels LC could go up over 1100 for a few days again. For it to happen we will need several sunny days over 80, in a row, soon. There is also a good chance we will see over 1600 @ Salida 4 Fibark, but most likely from reservoir releases, not natural runoff. The natural peak was overnight between May 19 and 20, and we will not see those levels again this season. My prediction is we will be at an augmented 700 cfs at Wellsville by the second week in July (unless this cool, wet weather hangs on all summer).


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## Snowhere (Feb 21, 2008)

Thanks Harv, learn something new everyday! 

So what did we hit? I saw about 2300 in Numbers for a few days, then I am guessing about 1800ish was the secondary peak (for Numbers once again).


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Looks like flows will be perfect all around for fibark weeked....

The ark is at 1850 in Browns right now...... It wil be over 2000cfs by sat...

I was up at lake last night for a 4.2ft run - needless to day lake will be over 1100 by the end of the weekend....

Clear Creek will run over 200 again on Thurs or Friday...

We will see 1000 cfs on the ark in the 2nd - 3rd week of July....


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

I dont know who but someone owes me some beer!! 

Browns is at 2500cfs......

In celebration there wil be a "2nd peak" bbq tonight at the pull off just above silver bridge takeout.. So come on up and get your #'s grove on and bring something for the grill!!! There is a big group headin up after work about 5:30 or so..


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## DanOrion (Jun 8, 2004)

*Double Peak! Double Peak!*


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

yeah I was wrong. I love it when I wrong when it comes to there being more water than I thought on the Ark. I would go git sum if I wasn't totally spent from three days of DR racing.


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## jmalefyt (Apr 23, 2009)




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## jmalefyt (Apr 23, 2009)

It's not up there yet...


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

There's not much snow left, only 1% of our seasonal peak to be exact, so I don't think it is going much higher...but we'll see.


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## jmalefyt (Apr 23, 2009)

We may have the actual peak this weekend! I'm amazed that it came all the way back up.


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## Riparian (Feb 7, 2009)

This crazy "dry season" rain is bringing everything back up for a second round. Nice to see after a disappointing winter!


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## UserName (Sep 7, 2007)

My guess is that spike is last nights rain. Must have flashed somewhere. Suspect it will spike right back down


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

UserName said:


> My guess is that spike is last nights rain. Must have flashed somewhere. Suspect it will spike right back down


Nope you are wrong...

They just filled up all the storage they had in the upper basins so and co springs needed h20 so here is yet another peak...

It will be above 3000 in the #'s this weekend.. 3300 or so in browns and 3600+ in the gorge. Get out and enjoy.. 

Harv maybe you should put more into my "crown royal deer huntin observations"... Just kiddin but you gotta love all the naysayers who said we had a may peak..


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Mike Harvey said:


> NEK I agree that it is going to come up a little if it ever gets warm but I think we have seen the peak. It is not going to get over 2500 again.


Nope not gona happen :wink::wink::wink::wink:.....


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

Bumparuski......

Still 3000 in the #'s................

I just may eat my words and we will be boatin 3000 in the numbers in July this year..

Fair to say that 09 is shapin up to be the 2nd best water year of this decade with only 08 havin higher flows for longer......

Super fun out there from piney to the gorge so go out and get in this late season water..


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## Snowhere (Feb 21, 2008)

Yep, yesterday was shit eating grins by everyone! I can only hope the flows will last another weekend.......


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## crackeryaker (Oct 15, 2003)

RDNEK said:


> this late season water..


Is it late season already? I was thinking only mid-season


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## DanOrion (Jun 8, 2004)

Up up up! Now tell me, why was the numbers parking lot EMPTY at 12:00 on Saturday? Big water Ark has no comparison...so much fun to get tossed around while cruising 15 mph down the river.


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## Roy (Oct 30, 2003)

DanOrion said:


> Now tell me, why was the numbers parking lot EMPTY at 12:00 on Saturday?


Because we hadn't left Denver yet? :roll:

Seriously, I was wondering the same thing--didn't see anybody else on the river Sat. afternoon except some fools doing rescue practice with a rope strung all the way across the river between #5 and #6, who waved us thru with the rope still in place and it dragged across the bottom of my hull at 15 mph.

Lots of folks at Clear Creek tho...


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

If you boys want the social thing show up after work about 5-6 pm... 

Sessions of 5 - 10+ boaters surfin one and a half has been the norm more than a few nights over the past week. A few nights ago when we did a BBQ at the takeout I would say there were 20 paddlers in the group... Mid day sat and sun we are all workin..

And just so you know - word around the campfire is that natural flow is about 2600 - 2700 at wellsville so give or take a a few hundred cfs - this is the water that will be in the ditch for the holiday weekend... 

Yep 09 is turnin out to be another epic water year here on the Ark!!!!!


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## Jahve (Oct 31, 2003)

1850cfs on July 10th.....

Lake is just now comin in to big 4 levels...

So far one of the best water years this decade here on the ARK!!

So now on July 10th I think it is fair to say the Ark has peaked.


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## Mike Harvey (Oct 10, 2003)

that is the last time I question the NEK in public. I am just here to publicly admit that NEK was right and I was wrong. Damm that has got to be the first time that has happened....

JV I am paddling with you next week no matter what. I'll holler...


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## kahuna (Mar 3, 2004)

Yep, he nailed it alright and i was wondering what NEK thinks the levels will be last week of July


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