# How Long Have You Been Lottery Unsuccessful



## BenSlaughter (Jun 16, 2017)

I've applied for the Middle Fork 23 of the last 25 years. Zero lottery success. When they split up the 4 rivers(10? years ago), I started applying for all of them, too. Also zero lottery wins.
Have done ok with cancellations.


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## OregonianRG (Jun 14, 2010)

I think I have had one permit in 35 years of applying for the 4 rivers and the Rogue.


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## ShouldBeFloating (Jan 11, 2022)

Lol..ouch! You aren't giving me much hope 😔 

Hopefully this year will be "your year"!


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## Will Amette (Jan 28, 2017)

I have pulled a few Rogue permits over the years. I used to use multiple choices for the same date with the second one being for a smaller group. I also would put in after kids were back in school so demand was a little lower.

Never had a Middle Fork permit, but been a few times. My last trip was on a dear friend's permit. Both him and his wife applied for that lottery ever year for well over 30 years; maybe 35. That's 60-70 applications and he finally pulled a permit for prime season. Good thing; a few more years and he might not be spry enough to row the Middle in June. First MF trip was a permit picked up from a cancellation under the old system by another friend. We did self-support to Cache Bar where two people had to head home. We had shuttled one vehicle so we had a resupply of non-perishable goods and were able to swap out poop tubes for empty ones then continue down to Carey Creek since it was still a couple days before control season. That was a hoot. Middle trip was a couple who were mutual friends of the folks who had the permit for the third trip, and they also had been each applying every year for over 30 years.

But someone has to win.

I wish everyone here good luck and a successful lottery for all the rivers you applied for even if that means you get two permits for the same date and have to throw one back. Unless you applied for the same dates I did, in which case I hope they pull your name after mine and you are only successful if there's still a launch left after I get mine....


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## caverdan (Aug 27, 2004)

Over the years I have scored 1 Deso permit. I did not inherit my mothers luck.


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## chuckd (Nov 25, 2014)

20 years of putting in for everything I’ve never won a lottery


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## rivh2o (Jan 17, 2013)

35 plus years trying for the Yampa nothing yet. Like any lottery if your not in it you can't win it. So every year I do it again. Middle Fork, the Yampa, Deso, San Juan. I always think maybe this year...
maybe I'll score all of them in one year. At least with Deso and the Main if you persist you can usually get a cancelled trip or go early and or late season and being flexible helps with short notice.
What can I say. It does suck! I would like to see a weighted lottery for the Yampa however.


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## upacreek (Mar 17, 2021)

I've had more luck on cancellations and friendly invites, than scoring lottery permits with the exception of the Salt (pre-Rec.gov, of course). So there's def alternative ways to get on the river if are motivated; although much like a Narcissist's Prayer, its far easier to shake a fist at a string of lottery bad luck than do the leg work to be a productive part of a group of fun, reliable people to increase your odds of a trip. That said, there are certain rivers though that I'd like to see much stronger penalties for cancellations....like forfeitures of access to the system for say 6 months or no refunds within 60 days to keep people from treating these permits like speculative investments in hope for optimal conditions.


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## okieboater (Oct 19, 2004)

I was part of a large permit party for middle fork for decades. Never won a MFS permit but did make several MFS trips on other people who did win and invited me. After many years sending in money I quit playing the MFS game.

Have been pretty lucky on Salt permits early on when I believe Ranger Don did the process manually. When wreck dot com took over winning a permit became similiar to MFS and I stopped entering.

For some reason me and the group I float with have been pretty lucky on San Juan, Deso, Lodore and Yampa. I do not know if there is a connection but our group luck went down ward when rec dot com took over the permit system.

My luck on invites went way up when I switched from kayak to owning a big raft, groover system, river tarp and full kitchen gear. There is a message there for you kayakers who want to do more river floats. That is unless a kayaker wins one of the desirable permits.


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## Bobthegreat (Mar 3, 2019)

And its Just going to get harder and harder as more and more people join the wonderful rafting community. But as stated above if you don’t try you will definitely not get one.


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## eyeboat (Feb 7, 2017)

I think it is getting harder to score a lottery permit. If you are very diligent and will go any water level, you can score a cancellation.I have missed going on the MF once in the last 25 years( not always my permit). Some times more than once a season.It helps to have boating friends.Before rec.gov, you could call Donna and get a last minute trip.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

Mostly spend my time clicking for cancellation 7 days a week as much as I can stand it, until 2020 when I won a Main Salmon and a GC for 2021. ( and grabbed a Middle Fork cancellation to to the corner) Ran down for Power Ball and Mega Millions tickets.....did not win.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

Bobthegreat said:


> And its Just going to get harder and harder as more and more people join the wonderful rafting community. But as stated above if you don’t try you will definitely not get one.


Definitely not looking too hot in the future. However lately I’ve been curious if the next generation is going to change that though. Most of them are interested in their phones or video games. I’d bet money that the next group will just buy the Grand Canyon Rafting experience for VR and call it a day.


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## DidNotWinLottery (Mar 6, 2018)

westwatercuban said:


> Definitely not looking too hot in the future. However lately I’ve been curious if the next generation is going to change that though. Most of them are interested in their phones or video games. I’d bet money that the next group will just buy the Grand Canyon Rafting experience for VR and call it a day.


It will improve soon. Public land visitation was cratering not long ago causing financial wows for Parks, but now has hit a high point with COVID. The dramatic population decline that has just started, combined with lack of interest by young people and an aging population means the situation will begin to improve very soon, likely in as little as 5 years.


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## Roseldo (Aug 27, 2020)

If we all spent as much time on rec.gov as we spent on mountainbuzz, we’d probably never have permit issues.

I sometimes dream of a stock trading terminal for permits.Three monitors minimum.


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## Rick A (Apr 15, 2016)

I guess I'm one of the lucky few. I play the lottery game with hunting as well, and between the 2 activities I tend to draw about 3 out of 5 seasons (I'm counting the years my wife won the lottery for rivers). That's not to say I draw 3 out of 5 applications, I apply for pretty much all the western multi-day trips for rafting permits and with hunting I apply for multiple species, zones, and weapons. On the years I don't draw I have typically been invited by someone in my circle who drew a permit or have been able to pick up a cancelation. As for hunting on the years I don't draw I travel to a state that sells over the counter tags. Sometimes you just need to get creative, pick some shoulder season dates, apply for more rivers, expand your boating circle, and run some rivers that don't require playing a lottery. I love to boat and hunt so permit or not, limited draw or over the counter, I find ways to enjoy those passions, you don't need to draw a permit to go rafting.


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## OregonianRG (Jun 14, 2010)

OregonianRG said:


> I think I have had one permit in 35 years of applying for the 4 rivers and the Rogue.


I take that back. I think I have had one MF permit and one Rogue permit, but they were so long ago I forget.


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## craven_morhead (Feb 20, 2007)

I managed to pull the single Super Permit for the Smith my first year applying. Can't win if you don't play.


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## morbald (Mar 10, 2014)

Pulled a Lodore permit the first year I applied, and haven't gotten one since. Most of the trips I go on are cancelled dates. I've managed to go on three Grand Canyon trips (spread out over 16 years) but that is with a lot of us applying, and two from the old wait list. Mostly it's just my contribution to the excellent web developers at rec.gov.


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## ShouldBeFloating (Jan 11, 2022)

morbald said:


> Pulled a Lodore permit the first year I applied, and haven't gotten one since. Most of the trips I go on are cancelled dates. I've managed to go on three Grand Canyon trips (spread out over 16 years) but that is with a lot of us applying, and two from the old wait list. Mostly it's just my contribution to the excellent web developers at rec.gov.


This is my first year putting in for Lodore. REALLY hoping for some beginner's luck, but I doubt it. 

How hard is it to find other groups willing to let a family of 4 tag along? After reading this, thinking this might be my back-up plan.


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## craven_morhead (Feb 20, 2007)

ShouldBeFloating said:


> How hard is it to find other groups willing to let a family of 4 tag along? After reading this, thinking this might be my back-up plan.


Depends on the family etc. It's certainly worth broadening your circle of rafting friends (and branching out in a number of different directions). Lots of people _talk_ about wanting to do big raft trips but schedules invariably get in the way, so it's not uncommon for people to have slots to fill.


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## Wallrat (Jan 19, 2021)

Applying for permits causes cancer and dementia. I’d suggest not doing it ever again. I promise, I’ll feel better….err, you’ll feel better immediately!


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## Roseldo (Aug 27, 2020)

Never. 
I got a San Juan Cancellation for 2020, but it was cancelled due to Covid. The restrictions were dropped two days after my scheduled launch date. I've failed on every attempt at picking up an unclaimed permit as well.


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

Wallrat said:


> Applying for permits causes cancer and dementia. I’d suggest not doing it ever again. I promise, I’ll feel better….err, you’ll feel better immediately!


On top of that, there’s not gonna be any runnable rivers anyways..Zero snow pack..Rivers are gonna be small streams..Might as well just sell all your gear when you can..and save your money on the permits..


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## Conundrum (Aug 23, 2004)

Loosely, I'm one for about 100 meaning I've pulled one actual lottery permit in applying for multiple rivers each year for 20 years. I've picked up cancellations and been on plenty of trips though.


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## raft80526 (Dec 9, 2007)

This PDF on app growth over the past 10 years pretty well sums it up. Last year overall odds were 1 in 102 for a MF and that was the mean. Look at this PDF and you can see that the odds exceed 1 in 2500 on the Selway. Someone in a previous thread talked about applying for hunting in GMUs. Every State game and fish has had a preference point system in place for decades. You put in for the unit you want, you don't draw you get a preference point. (And unlike the GC they don't stop at five years!!!). Some units take 30 plus preference points to draw; that is 30 years of applying. Probably the same odds as above but with preference points your application fee is at least doing something and you know you're making progress. If any State can do it why can't the Feds? Cause they don't care; there is no incentive. Folks who work at the game and fish office see the folks who use the system at the grocery store and get an earful if someone doesn't like something. Folks in DC? Might as well be Mars. I wrote to my congressman Joe Neguse about getting wreck.gov to instantiate a points system. Crickets. Maybe we should be like the truckers in Canada and drive all of our trailer rigs to DC, drink lots of beer and use our groovers on the Capital lawn P.S. Here's the stats on Elk Hunting in Colorado. Anyone can know a priori how many preference points its going to take to draw on any unit for any hunt code. Search on EM002O1M. There were 10 licenses available to hunt bull elk with a muzzle loader in that unit. Anyone with less than 23 preference points was not going to be successful. (Yes, that's 23 years of faithfully applying.) That's O.K. It's called a queue and you start queuing when you're young knowing you're going to get your dream hunt some day. YOU ARE GUARANTEED IT, so long as you don't die. Mind you this for a trophy unit where only ten people are allowed to hunt. It's the equivalent of a Selway launch the third week of June.


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## Rick A (Apr 15, 2016)

Many states use point systems for hunting and those points are used differently from state to state. I haven't applied in Colorado but the point system they use does have drawback and does not guarantee tags for everyone. Many of the units in states like Colorado require many years to earn enough points to draw a tag and since more people apply than there are tags to give out you get point creep situations. Those systems favor people who have been applying since they were young and creates a barrier to entry of age. For example let's talk about that unit you mentioned that gives out 10 tags and requires 23 points to draw a tag and I'll try to explain point creep. So this year it takes 23 points to draw a tag in that unit, but over time more people have more points and the required number of points goes up year after year. Certain years might only have 10 applicants in the state with 23 points and the system works as intended, then you have years where 30 applicants have 23 points so not everyone with 23 points will draw a tag, meaning next year it will require 24 points to draw that tag and not everyone who has 24 points will draw a tag because 20 applicants now have 24 points and they will only give out 10 tags. So the next year there will be 10 applicants with 25 points and it takes 25 points to draw in that unit. That type of point system makes it so a person has no way of ever drawing a tag at all unless they have been applying since they were teenagers. As the number of required points creeps up a person who begins building points in their 30's will not live long enough to earn the points it takes to draw. It does favor the those who have been committed to the lottery for many years.

I prefer a point systems like Nevada uses. We get a point for every unsuccessful application. No amount of points will guarantee you a tag as person with 0 points can still draw a tag, but to reward those who have been applying for many years they square your points + 1. So while you can draw with 0 points and 1 entry in the lottery, the person who has been applying for 20 years has 401 entries into the lottery. This system still gives a chance at a tag to first time applicants but it is weighted to give better odds to those who have not drawn and have been building points for years. I believe it is time to use a point systems for river lotteries but I favor a bonus point system to a preference point system.


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## Pinchecharlie (Jul 27, 2017)

Never ever git one...but some do! Got a delicious cow elk this year though on public! I am 53 and have shot exactly two (2) bull elk lol!! Thats more cause iam a shit hunter though lol. This year I applied for and WILL receive permits for all the best rivers at the best flows and I will invite all of you along and it will be great fun!!! I remember when I was real young sitting in the parking lot waiting for guys to show up cause I was scared to paddle out alone in big surf lol. Not anymore!!!


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## westwatercuban (May 19, 2021)

Rick A said:


> Many states use point systems for hunting and those points are used differently from state to state. I haven't applied in Colorado but the point system they use does have drawback and does not guarantee tags for everyone. Many of the units in states like Colorado require many years to earn enough points to draw a tag and since more people apply than there are tags to give out you get point creep situations. Those systems favor people who have been applying since they were young and creates a barrier to entry of age. For example let's talk about that unit you mentioned that gives out 10 tags and requires 23 points to draw a tag and I'll try to explain point creep. So this year it takes 23 points to draw a tag in that unit, but over time more people have more points and the required number of points goes up year after year. Certain years might only have 10 applicants in the state with 23 points and the system works as intended, then you have years where 30 applicants have 23 points so not everyone with 23 points will draw a tag, meaning next year it will require 24 points to draw that tag and not everyone who has 24 points will draw a tag because 20 applicants now have 24 points and they will only give out 10 tags. So the next year there will be 10 applicants with 25 points and it takes 25 points to draw in that unit. That type of point system makes it so a person has no way of ever drawing a tag at all unless they have been applying since they were teenagers. As the number of required points creeps up a person who begins building points in their 30's will not live long enough to earn the points it takes to draw. It does favor the those who have been committed to the lottery for many years.
> 
> I prefer a point systems like Nevada uses. We get a point for every unsuccessful application. No amount of points will guarantee you a tag as person with 0 points can still draw a tag, but to reward those who have been applying for many years they square your points + 1. So while you can draw with 0 points and 1 entry in the lottery, the person who has been applying for 20 years has 401 entries into the lottery. This system still gives a chance at a tag to first time applicants but it is weighted to give better odds to those who have not drawn and have been building points for years. I believe it is time to use a point systems for river lotteries but I favor a bonus point system to a preference point system.


Yeah colorado has a difficult one to deal with. But I never see the appeal for it. I do put in for a B list tag I want. But I pull an over the counter A list tag and hunt in the plethora of open units. This allows you to hunt every year...I hunt to put food on the table as well as the experience, definitely not for trophies. So everyone else can fight for those "special units" Got my first big game animal this year and it was my second hunting season. Was lucky enough to find a beautiful bull elk. But that has more to do with going into bfe and not going where everyone and their grandmother wants to go. 

That being said. If everyone and the grandmother here wants to go down the same exact runs…here’s a food for thought…given that there is a smaller selection of rivers available compared to just one states hunting game units, With a much bigger population applying for those “tags” this setup will just create the same issue with trophy units….20+ years to apply for them..I don't see how that will fix anything. I have a ton of ideas that could possibly fix this issue...but let's be real with ourselves...when has the government ever done something that makes sense....


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## zbaird (Oct 11, 2003)

I have put in for well over 100 permits and have gotten 2 ever. One Salt (for the first day of permit season) and one prime MFS.


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## BryanTBurke (Jun 14, 2020)

Permit rivers I've been on: MF and Main Salmon, GC, Yampa, Deso-Grey, Salt, Rogue, Lodore, Westwater, San Juan. Permits that_ I_ won? One, Deso-Grey in September, out of dozens of applications over the years. Having a network, a well-equipped boat, and solid skills is about the only way I've ever gotten on a permit trip. The Salmon trip, I didn't know a soul but was recommended by a friend because they needed a freight boat for the kayakers. Yes, of course I swallowed my pride. 

The Rogue is an exception. I don't know if they still do this, but my last trip in 2011 the limits were by number of people, not parties, launching on any given day. When I was in the area to run the Umpqua and Mackenzie I called into the Rogue office and they had room for three more people a few days after I arrived in the area, so I ran a single boat trip with a friend on board. That was a nice option, I don't know if it still exists.

The other option is to run rivers that don't require a permit or run off-season. If I didn't use those options I wouldn't have done much rafting in the last twenty years. A lot of permit rivers could probably handle more traffic if they offered small trips (maybe less than six people) as well as bigger ones because there would be more camping possibilities. But I agree with the comments that the government just doesn't care, so we're probably stuck with the 'system.'


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## Teddy Brewsevelt (Jan 29, 2015)

Second the recommends for cancellations and non-permitted rivers. It seems like more and more applicants putting in have little to no paddling experience, which means a fair number of draws come back open again as cancellations. Picking them up requires consistent checking and flexibility for water conditions, but it seems to be the most consistent way to get high-demand permits. Plenty of non-permitted trips out there too. Lower Salmon, Gunnison, S Fork Snake, ect...


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## BenSlaughter (Jun 16, 2017)

SSSHHHHHHH!!!


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## Dangerfield (May 28, 2021)

N


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## jspence01 (Nov 7, 2013)

ShouldBeFloating said:


> I wonder how many people are as unlucky as me? I've been putting in for the Rogue for 3 years now with no luck in the lottery and just started putting in for other systems.
> 
> Ita hard to not get excited about a float trip, then have your dreams crushed by the all too familiar unsuccessful notice...
> 
> ...


do not try for a Selway permit . I have been lucky with cancellations on the Rogue . you have to be persistent . If you can go post or pre season season that is another way to do Middle Fork Main and Selway just hope for good snow packs if going late. I have been waiting 6 years on wait list for Tatshenshini you have to be patient


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## hullflyer (Aug 22, 2004)

I've had minimal luck with the pure lotteries. A few upper San Juan's over the years. I had my "once in a lifetime" Grand Canyon Permit from the old wait list in 1995, they gave me a trip in 2008. Never pulled a Permit of my choice on any of the Idaho 4 Rivers, Yampa, Deso, etc.. Check out LISTEN | River Radius Podcast Podcast, Episode 14. I keep donating my $60 every year to the rec.gov slush fund in hopes of getting that July 4th Selway launch.


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## JB13 (Jun 1, 2011)

Zero since rec.gov took over. mailing in with a check for the permit took a bit of effort and weeded out a lot of people.


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## ShouldBeFloating (Jan 11, 2022)

No dino permit for us. Still got hope for the Rogue. Not holding my breadth though!


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## ShouldBeFloating (Jan 11, 2022)

JB13 said:


> Zero since rec.gov took over. mailing in with a check for the permit took a bit of effort and weeded out a lot of people.


Lowering the barrier to entry doesn't help the cause!


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## Bootboy (Aug 25, 2020)

8 of us put in for 10 rivers this year. So far, we’ve got 1 salt and 3 San Juan’s. Hope we don’t blow all our luck on just those 2.

So there will be 2 cancellations for the San Juan on April 24th, for those of you looking for scraps.


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## LJPurvis (Apr 12, 2017)

17 years of applying to all 4 permitted rivers in Idaho: 1 Hells Canyon and 1 Middle Fork. However, I have picked up many cancellations.
10 years of applying for the Grand Canyon: 0 draws on the initial. I have picked up one in the cancellation lottery.
I have yet to apply for a Green or Yampa. I plan on adding those to my yearly permit entries though.


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## Roseldo (Aug 27, 2020)

As of yesterday, however many years I have been applying + 1.


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## Uncle Steve (May 2, 2013)

Never won anything since the advent of recreation.gov.


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