# Snowpack prognosis positive



## ob1coby (Jul 25, 2013)

We were told we wouldn't get any snow this year due to El Ninio. (sorry spelling) and we certainly didn't break any records, but I'm amazed at how much snow we got in MT and ID for an El Ninio year. More than last year for sure. GREATFUL!


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Some of the Dolores managers are saying slim chance, but that was from a meeting before these storms. 

Latest Release Update

Still only at 82% according to data.

Average year on the Yampa. Could be a good year to have a Dino permit.

Can't wait for a long float trip!

Phillip


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

Still too early to tell. Last year it didn't START to snow in CO until mid April and continued through the end of May. We went from dire snowpack to phenomenal snowpack in 6 weeks. No snow in that timeline this year could drop us to 70% in quick time and a runoff would be complete in early June. So we still have to wait and see. 

But the word on current conditions is the reservoirs in the Upper Ark basin are pretty much full and water will be flowing regardless of late spring snowfall. Seems like everything north of Hwy 50 on up to Idaho should have a good year but not so much for the areas to the south and into NM/AZ.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

DoStep said:


> Still too early to tell. Last year it didn't START to snow in CO until mid April and continued through the end of May. We went from dire snowpack to phenomenal snowpack in 6 weeks. No snow in that timeline this year could drop us to 70% in quick time and a runoff would be complete in early June. So we still have to wait and see.
> 
> But the word on current conditions is the reservoirs in the Upper Ark basin are pretty much full and water will be flowing regardless of late spring snowfall. Seems like everything north of Hwy 50 on up to Idaho should have a good year but not so much for the areas to the south and into NM/AZ.


We are definitely getting closer to where we were last year, but I wouldn't hold out hope that April and May are going to be as wet as last year. That was as much moisture as I have ever seen in those 2 months around here.... 

Reservoirs are still quite full, but we should know more about what the runoff will look like once the Front Range entities can estimate their west slope imports come April 1. 

The difference between 80-100% of average on free flowing tributaries like Chalk Creek and the South Fork of the Ark can be huge. We are at the point where we need good continuous moisture and/or cold temperatures to maintain our snow or we may be looking at a mediocre runoff with a long period of maintained dam release...


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## formerflatlander (Aug 8, 2013)

Weather channel is saying warm weather and drier April as we transition to an el Nina cycle. Still nice to see this weekends moisture. And how often do they really get this stuff right?! One huge late storm can make a big difference too. Run it, whatever it is.


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## jmack (Jun 3, 2004)

formerflatlander said:


> Weather channel is saying warm weather and drier April as we transition to an el Nina cycle. Still nice to see this weekends moisture. And how often do they really get this stuff right?! One huge late storm can make a big difference too. Run it, whatever it is.


Considering that long term weather forecast are extremely inaccurate, and that the Weather Channel has no understanding whatsoever of weather in the mountains, I would not place too much importance on it.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

In my 17 years of commercial guiding on the Ark, April always scares me. It seems March is usually good to us and the stoke is on with dreams of highwater til August. April comes and she will either confirm what we are all thinking in March or she will turn the heat on and it all flows down to Pueblo reservoir, along with our hopes and all the dreams we had in March. The prediction models that are coming out for the upcoming months have changed a few times this winter. I'm not expecting anything like last season but I'm sure we will get a couple of medium to big storms before its all said and done. I'm stoked to be taking down trips in April so I'm happy to get on the Ark either way!


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## denali1322 (Jun 3, 2013)

Anyone know where you can get a link to that snowpack map that show's % of average across Colorado? I had a link for that last year, but it doesn't work any more. I realize one can look at the raw data, but that's too much work if just looking for a ballpark snapshot.


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## formerflatlander (Aug 8, 2013)

This is the site I've been using for snowpack info. No graphic but really informative.http://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports...Colorado&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report


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## cayo 2 (Apr 20, 2007)

It seems like our winters are generally milder than they used to be, but then spring is crappier with skimpy flows,then all of the sudden everything is cranking and melting fast.I hate getting on high flows all rusty off the couch.You can' t always get what you want,but it would be good if we had some low but boatable flows soon and got some more storms intermittently .Yeah if you are motivated you can drive all over and get what there is,even those runs (NM,AZ, and So.Co) have not run that great in recent years.

My best hope is that they move water thru town early in preparation for runoff,then the season starts slightly early...maybe a road trip south in late April /early May.


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## kayakfreakus (Mar 3, 2006)

denali1322 said:


> Anyone know where you can get a link to that snowpack map that show's % of average across Colorado? I had a link for that last year, but it doesn't work any more. I realize one can look at the raw data, but that's too much work if just looking for a ballpark snapshot.


Between flatlanders link and this:

ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/states/co/snow/state/daily/co_update_snow.pdf

Should be set


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## lynnbryson (Apr 14, 2013)

denali1322 said:


> Anyone know where you can get a link to that snowpack map that show's % of average across Colorado? I had a link for that last year, but it doesn't work any more. I realize one can look at the raw data, but that's too much work if just looking for a ballpark snapshot.


ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/states/co/snow/state/daily/co_update_snow.pdf

I like graphics too.


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## benR (Aug 5, 2014)

If you want the snowpack picture for every drainage west of the great plains, here's a handy link.

SNOTEL Narrative


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## duct tape (Aug 25, 2009)

Just pointing out that no one predicted 29 days of rain in COS last May either. 

Anything can happen.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Duct Tape: You are right. Anything can happen. I've never seen it rain like it did down in The Springs. Typically we get that type of rain in BV in July and August and usually just in the afternoon. I remember thinking in May, Holy Shit, it's gonna be a Huge year. 


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

duct tape said:


> Just pointing out that no one predicted 29 days of rain in COS last May either.
> 
> Anything can happen.


It certainly can, but I had 7.5" of rain at my house between April 1 and Memorial Day. Forest rangers I spoke with told me that soil moisture content was the highest they had seen in 30 years.... I would love to start seeing that kind of precipitation every spring, but realistically it's not very likely.


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

Maybe the aquifers are on a positive refilling trend too.


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## Tyrrache (Oct 27, 2014)

*Wooo Hooo!!*

Late Spring Storm looking to put some much needed snow into the Colorado, San Juan, and Rio Grande Drainages!

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/rockies-high-plains-snowstorm-april-2016


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## jspoon14 (Aug 5, 2012)

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/co/snow/state/daily/co_update_snow.pdf


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Here we go again!


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

Yes! Hope it delivers the goods. 

Upon reviewing the specific snotel sites that feed the Upper Arkansas I will partially retract my former statements in this thread. When I looked last week the Fremont Pass and Independence Pass sites were both above 100% of average... and a couple more inches of moisture will make for a solid season. 

Bring it on.


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

Ya there is a bunch more snow in the ARK Valley as you go north from Chalk Creek (the last major inflow above Brown's Cyn). So ya the whole basin is at avg or less but I think it is much higher as you go towards Leadville. All tunnels will be flowing too, so yes, be ready for another good run off on the Upper Ark!


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## formerflatlander (Aug 8, 2013)

I noticed the same thing. Seems the low figures,like apishapa, out by last animas, are skewing the average. As far as it sitting in pueblo res, it's full too. Anything going in just goes downstream. Maybe ultimately help the aquifer out east.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

I've been watching all of the snow reports online. I'm running out of water here in the desert. Seeing the numbers rise up in the upper ark makes me smile. The next 14 days has a high percentage of precipitation for either rain or snow for most of those days. I know last year was unbelievable and probably won't be touched on terms of how many days we just got hammered. I am wondering if this is a start of a trend that happened in the 90's where a "bad" snowpack was 95-100%. I guess we will have to wait and see.


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## Tyrrache (Oct 27, 2014)

Up to 50" on the ground in some places with more to come! Go Vexo Go!


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Tyrrache said:


> Up to 50" on the ground in some places with more to come! Go Vexo Go!



Where was this at?


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## Tyrrache (Oct 27, 2014)

DesertRatonIce said:


> Where was this at?
> 
> 
> Woke up this morning at 10:13.



https://weather.com/storms/winter/n...ckies-high-plains-denver-snowstorm-april-2016


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

Seems like about 16" fell here in town, and my yard completely melted off today.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

DoStep said:


> Seems like about 16" fell here in town, and my yard completely melted off today.


It was still dumping on top of Fremont Pass yesterday afternoon and the snotel site shows a bump of a couple inches of water actually putting the site over the moisture content that was present on this date last year.

Plus Joel at Open Snow seems to think there is more moisture in the pipeline:

"Then we should see additional storms from about Sunday April 24th through at least the first few days of May. I can’t say that any of those storms will be as strong as our current storm, but I have moderate confidence that more snow and more powder days are in the cards"


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## DoStep (Jun 26, 2012)

There is another slow mover over the Pacific that seems to be tracking toward 4 corners again that could arrive around that timeframe...


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Looks like the weather wants to return to some similar patterns from last year. This could make things even more interesting....


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## mattman (Jan 30, 2015)

RISE!!!!! Down with empire, up with spring! And high water:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

"BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
CWA AND AS IT DOES SO...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORMALLY AFTER A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE`D SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. NOT SO THIS WEEK. WHILE
A WEAK RIDGE DOES TRY TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED AND WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TAKES AIM AT THE CWA. MORE CLOUDS...RAIN...ISOLATED
STORMS AND MTN SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND."

National Weather Service Text Product Display


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

I'm headed back to the Upper Arkansas Valley with a smile! Up to 2 ft with this upcoming storm and it looks like more is on the way next week as well.....I know there has been discussion about this season not being quite as big as last but Damn! The only draw back for me as a commercial guide is the closing of certain sections of River. It makes logistics a bitch but last season taught us well. I'll take the "hassle" and smile all day.


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## Tyrrache (Oct 27, 2014)

Hopefully Dean Martin is as stoked as I am!!!


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

It snowed a couple of inches in pbville last night. Things are still continuing to accumulate in the Upper Ark drainage. The long term weather report looks like decent weather so I think we will start seeing some flow from all this snow. With no Utah or Arizona red dirt to make the snow melt faster we could be in store for a real nice slow melt.


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## Roguelawyer (Apr 2, 2015)

DesertRatonIce said:


> It snowed a couple of inches in pbville last night. Things are still continuing to accumulate in the Upper Ark drainage. The long term weather report looks like decent weather so I think we will start seeing some flow from all this snow. With no Utah or Arizona red dirt to make the snow melt faster we could be in store for a real nice slow melt.
> 
> 
> Woke up this morning at 10:13.


YES.

This rafting season looks to be as good for the industry as the past winter was for the ski industry.

Fingers crossed


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

DesertRatonIce said:


> It snowed a couple of inches in pbville last night. Things are still continuing to accumulate in the Upper Ark drainage. The long term weather report looks like decent weather so I think we will start seeing some flow from all this snow. With no Utah or Arizona red dirt to make the snow melt faster we could be in store for a real nice slow melt.
> 
> 
> Woke up this morning at 10:13.


Looking straight up fantastic now. Got a good solid rain at my house this morning and we had the mountain wall cloud going on all day. 120% of average and 139% of last year. I hope it does melt slow....can get a bit intimidating when it's jumping 1000 cfs overnight...


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## Randaddy (Jun 8, 2007)

Especially since that's from yesterday's measurements. It snowed 6+" in Leadville again last night. I expect this graph to see at least one more bump before runoff begins!


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## mattman (Jan 30, 2015)

RISE!!!
( or " I think we need a bigger boat"?)


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

mattman said:


> RISE!!!
> ( or " I think we need a bigger boat"?)



I was saying that last year running a 13 footer through Seidels last season at 5500! 


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Randaddy said:


> Especially since that's from yesterday's measurements. It snowed 6+" in Leadville again last night. I expect this graph to see at least one more bump before runoff begins!



The graph saw a big increase. Some areas are close to 200%. I see next week has some possibility for more moisture. Good Grief!


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Unbelievable.


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

158% of average for this date basin wide.


531% of average for this date at the Brumely site on Independence Pass!


http://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports...Colorado&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

I didn't think I would see anything bigger than last year for awhile. Could we be seeing something bigger this year?!?!......I sound like a broken record in my posts but there is even more moisture in the pipeline coming. Help!


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## Andy H. (Oct 13, 2003)

DesertRatonIce said:


> I didn't think I would see anything bigger than last year for awhile. Could we be seeing something bigger this year?!?!......I sound like a broken record in my posts but there is even more moisture in the pipeline coming. .


I think part of what we're seeing is a combination of a late thaw and a series of late storms. If you check out the Upper Colorado Basin Plot you'll see that we're lagging just a little behind average melt timing but since the curve is so steep at this time of year, that makes the "percent of average" much greater. Overall it looks like a generally average year by that plot, but we're just melting out a little later.

I think it'll be a good year and the runoff will last a bit longer than usual, but it's not going to be like 2011, 1995, 1983, etc. (unless something really major happens between now and early June). Hopefully I'm wrong...


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## lmyers (Jun 10, 2008)

DesertRatonIce said:


> I didn't think I would see anything bigger than last year for awhile. Could we be seeing something bigger this year?!?!......I sound like a broken record in my posts but there is even more moisture in the pipeline coming. Help!
> 
> 
> Woke up this morning at 10:13.



There is a very good chance we will see comparable flows to last year at this point. The actual amount of water (basin wide) left to come down is about 2" greater than it was at this time last year.....but our peak coincided with a couple rain events last year which pushed the peak higher than what it would have been from snowmelt alone. That and the water table in the valley bottom is not as high as it was at this time last year because we haven't had the same soaking rains (yet), so as the snow melts it will take longer to fill the alluvial aquifers running underground. Plus, there is virtually no dust in the snowpack this season which should prolong the runoff over a longer period of time.

There is no denying that everything around Leadville is going to run HUGE this year with 20" of water on Fremont Pass primed and ready to come down.


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## DesertRatonIce (Jan 1, 2015)

Thanks guys for the beta. I'm nervous as a head boatman but super excited as a private boater. I guess it comes down to the temperatures on how fast our thaw and melt occur. 


Woke up this morning at 10:13.


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## restrac2000 (Mar 6, 2008)

Yeah, snotel-based averages start to get a little wonky sometime in May.










Lower Sevier is at a massive 1120%! All kind of skewed when you dig deep enough. That said, it seems we have a lot of moisture reserved in our mountains for the first time in years. 

Interesting year.

Phillip


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