# WESTERN RIVERS 10 DAY FORECAST-Beginning mid-May



## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 15, 2019*

May 15, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 16, 2019*

May 16, 2019


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## rtsideup (Mar 29, 2009)

Hi Ron, thanks for all of your great work on this!
I'm in the San Miguel/Dolores watershed area. In your graphs we are something like "Dolores, Placerville, Stateline". Kinda backwards. If we could get a separate San Miguel @ Placerville graph, that would be great!


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

Thanks rtsideup,

The forecast hydrograph array is somewhat arranged geographically. Blue arrows attempt to impart flow direction. Width of the blue line implies relative volume. Black line suggest basin dividers with the spill direction of the basin indicated by arrow heads. As you can see, considering the available space(23"x33") the attempt at a geographic arrangement is vague at best. An early conception of the graph was to have an underlying shaded relief map with arrows pointing from each hydrograph to gauge location on that map. That idea crashed like a lead balloon early on.

The Dolores flows south to north and that is the arrangement of the hydrographs on the graph(bottom to top, south to north). Little blue arrows try to show that flow direction with another blue arrow indicating that . Now here I'm confused since you say "Kinda backwards." Please explain what is backwards? 

Going forward I have removed "State-line and Placerville" from the description of the north-most gauge so as not to confuse. Perhaps that will clear up what you might be referring to. That gauge is at Cisco. Those references were relics of a time when one gauge was to be representative of the entire Dolores-San Miguel basin on what I call the "Down River Report" that I post at a different website. 

I do have a gauge for the San Miguel at Nucla. Is the Placerville gauge preferred? Is the Uranvan gauge preferred? At this time I'm limited by space to one of the three. Please let me know


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## rtsideup (Mar 29, 2009)

What I meant by backwards was that Placerville is the upper most gauge of the San Miguel watershed while Stateline is near the bottom of the Dolores (same water, yes). IMO the most pertinent gauges on the Miguel are Placerville and Uravan. The Nucla section isn't boatable do to diversion dams.


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## rtsideup (Mar 29, 2009)

Oh, you said one.
Placerville.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

I chose Nucla to split the difference, some idea of what's above and a very good idea of what is below in terms of runnability.

I will switch to Placerville since that is the most commonly run and populated/utilized section of the San Miguel.

If at some future date I split the graph into regions then more gauges might be possible in each region. For now, the single page graph is meant to be one stop shopping for understanding the status of most western rivers of interest to Rocky Mtn boaters.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 17, 2019*

May 17, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 18, 2019*

May 18, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 19, 2019*

May 19, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 20, 2019*

May 20, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 21, 2019*

May 21, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 22, 2019*

May 22, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 23, 2019*

May 23, 2019

Added Hell's Canyon Dam, Grey's, Phantom Ranch, Diamond Creek and a few more.


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## portermoab (Sep 20, 2017)

Does anyone have a sense of why a lot of the Utah rivers are dropping (Deso, for example)? I understand that it's cold and freezing at high elevations, but it's also been absolutely dumping rain all over these basins/drainages. Thoughts?


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

My best guess is as you say, colder than average temps are causing the precip that is falling to fall as snow and the snow is not melting because it is still snowing. The White and the Yampa at Steamboat forecasts another peak coming soon when the weather warms up. That next peak is out at the right edge of some of the most upstream gauges on the 5/23/2019 Hydrograph Forecasts. Besides, most of the desert rivers haven't yet gotten to the date of their average peaks, well which is about now.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 24, 2019*

May 24, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 25, 2019*

May 25, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 26, 2019*

May 26, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 27, 2019*

May 27, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 28, 2019*

May 28, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 29, 2019*

May 29, 2019


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## panicman (Apr 7, 2005)

Hey Ron thanks for the info. You might want to adjust your stuff for the green.
Looks like starting June 3 and 4th they are opening the gates on flaming gorge dam to the 8,500 max for 7 days


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## SherpaDave (Dec 28, 2017)

panicman said:


> Hey Ron thanks for the info. You might want to adjust your stuff for the green.
> 
> Looks like starting June 3 and 4th they are opening the gates on flaming gorge dam to the 8,500 max for 7 days




The green is gonna be big the next couple weeks!


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## MontanaLaz (Feb 15, 2018)

Launching Deso on the 3rd and am stoked at the flows. The lake to Jack Creek may not actually be a chore this time


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 30, 2019*

The spills for Flaming Gorge Dam and Navajo Dam are now showing up in the CBRFC forecast. Looks like another spill out of McPhee Dam is planned. Big spill planned for Hell's Canyon Dam. And for everywhere else in the Rockies, the big spring runoff is about to begin.

Recently, there was a question on this thread concerning "WHERE IS THE RUNOFF?" These graphs from the Down River Report for Colorado and Utah tell the whole story. The temperature lines(red) shows cool temps, cold enough for snow in the high country. The precip lines show on going precip, which, was, snow. The snow pack(green lines) show that the snow pack was stable to increasing in both Colorado and Utah. Which, when considered as a whole means no runoff.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 30, 2019*

May 30, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*May 31, 2019*

May 31, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 1, 2019*

June 1, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 3, 2019*

June 3, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 4, 2019*

June 4, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 5, 2019*

June 5, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 6, 2019*

June 6, 2019


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## Osprey (May 26, 2006)

Hey Ron, thank you for these! Watching out for them everyday to keep an eye on Deso in two weeks. Much appreciated.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 7, 2019*

June 7, 2019


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## kellywelding (Nov 17, 2017)

GeoRon, your forecasts are very useful and accurate. Thanks so much for producing these.


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## MNichols (Nov 20, 2015)

Thanks again for posting these, most accurate and very welcome to see !!!


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 13, 2019*

June 13, 2019

Sorry I missed posting the last few days. The WiFi is terrible on the Dolores and my potential backup is on the Grand.

Thank you for the complements. All I can take credit for is the processing and presentation of the forecasts prepared mid to late morning each day by the River Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service. They use their weather forecast, the USGS and others hydrograph data, the NRCS Snotel data and of course frequent updates by the valve adjusters at the dams and diversions to generate an amazingly accurate forecast of river flow using complex programming specific to each river. My hat is off to them (actually my hats are in the Dolores due to a faulty hat clip not discovered until the second one was gone).


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## noschoollikeoldschool (Jun 24, 2009)

*Great info graphic*

We are heading out on Deso in a week. I have been pouring over your graphics and was jonzing a little without it. I hope you had a good trip on the Dolores. Thank you for putting this together.


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## jonseim (May 27, 2006)

GeoRon said:


> My hat is off to them (actually my hats are in the Dolores due to a faulty hat clip not discovered until the second one was gone).


What’s your favorite hat clip? Any better than others? Thanks for this (projected runoff #’s) info Ron, was good learning from you at DRE and still here. 
Thanks
Jon


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 14, 2019*

Added Arkansas at Salida and Parkdale.


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

Howdy John, I hope you and the family are doing well. My favorite hat clip?, one that works.

I kinda miss my days of jawboning and practicing social skills at DRE fulfilling my civil responsibility to work until I was age 62. Only full retirement soothes the loss of interacting with good people like you.

Ron


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

I failed to file a "lost-and-if-found-report".

On the Dolores down to Lake Fowl if you find a ball cap "AIRE" or "Noth'in Great Bout Hate"; please wear them proudly as I did.

Sadly, I must confess in the words of a jerk, to be a "loser";(of two ball caps on one trip).


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*June 15, 2019*

June 15, 2019


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## GeoRon (Jun 24, 2015)

*This thread is dead.*

Proceed to this link for future forecasts.
https://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f42/western-rivers-forecast-99157.html#post737493


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